CFF 2017 Rankings -- 15-11

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 It isn't always easy, determining (read that as guessing) who will have the best teams in college football. Last year we had two of the four playoff teams, but all four CFP teams were in our top six, including Washington at 4 -- the only forecaster (at least that we are aware of) that had the Huskies making the playoffs.

 A number of factors go into these rankings -- talent, experience, strength of schedule. It's up to us to figure out which are the most important, and rank the teams accordingly. One note -- this is how we see the teams finishing up the season, not who has the strongest bunch heading into the year. If we did it that way, Alabama and Ohio State would be 1-2 every single season.

 Today we feature teams 15-11.

11. Stanford (10-3) -- The Cardinal are kind of the forgotten team in the Pac-12, as people talk about USC and Washington, and even resurgent Washington State and coach Mike Leach. But ignore Stanford at your own peril, because it has become a "program," consistent in its approach and its success. Last year's 10-win campaign was the fourth double-digit one in the last five seasons, and David Shaw has stamped himself as one of the best coaches in the land. He will have to rely on his defense to hold down the fort while a young offense gets accustomed to the action, but with eight starters back on that side it's not a bad thing. Harrison Phillips is stout inside and Dylan Jackson could take over as the pass-rushing terror. The secondary is rebuilt, but not completely lacking in experience. On offense, it will be difficult to replace the wow factor of Christian McCaffrey, but Bryce Love (119 yards in the bowl game) will get first crack at the job. Receivers must emerge, as well as a quarterback -- if healthy it's probably Keller Chryst. The offensive line was banged up last year but is now healthy and returns four. The schedule is grueling, with road trips to USC, San Diego State, Utah and Washington State. But three games at home to end the season means Stanford could finish with a flourish. FAST FACT -- Stanford has won 17 straight non-conference home games, the last loss a 21-14 setback to Notre Dame in 2007.

Baker Mayfield

12. Oklahoma (11-2) -- The Sooners are a trendy pick to make the CFP, and nearly unanimous as the favorite in the Big 12. To quote noted philosopher Lee Corso, "Not so fast, my friend." Sure, new head coach Lincoln Riley was on staff last year as OC, but you can't tell me there won't be a difference in running the ship. He'll just have more to do, and it's tough to be a first-timer in Norman. Couple that with the fact that QB Baker Mayfield loses most of his established weapons -- though TE Mark Andrews should have a huge year -- and you have a team that could take some time to find itself. The defense returns seven starters from a unit that showed some warts last season, but LB Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (71 tackles, 9 sacks) could be ready to breakout. The secondary is deep and talented, and will need to be at its best in the pass-happy Big 12. Oklahoma faces Ohio State, Texas, Kansas State and Oklahoma State on the road, which is the main reason they are out of the top 10. If Riley gets this group to equal last year's 11 wins, he should be made coach for eternity. FAST FACT -- Mayfield not only completed 70.6 percent of his passes in 2016, he also set the single-season FBS record for passer rating (196.4).

13. Florida (9-4) -- Is this the year the Florida offense finally gets it going? Defense has ruled the day for the first two seasons of the Jim McElwain regime, but there's more depth and speed on hand now, and Florida could be ready to blossom -- assuming it finds a quarterback. Redshirt Feleipe Franks could have a leg up on Luke Del Rio and Notre Dame transfer Malik Zaire, but if so McElwain isn't tipping his hand. Whoever wins the job gets to throw the football to Antonio Callaway (54 catches), who should find the end zone more than the three times he did last season. The O-line is top notch, led by Martez Ivey, who slides from guard to his more natural left tackle position. The defense absorbs a lot of hits, notably in the linebacking corps, where three new starters will be needed. The secondary, however, has experience, with senior Marcell Harris (team high 73 stops) and corner Duke Dawson, who moves outside from nickel. The Gators miss Alabama and Auburn and get LSU at home, as well as Michigan, Georgia and Florida State on neutral fields. If the Gators get through that group unblemished, McElwain deserves a coronation. FAST FACT -- The Gators led the nation in fewest passing touchdowns allowed (8) and opposing QB rating (92.86), one of just three teams to keep teams under 100.

Myles Gaskin (Associated Press)

14. Washington (12-2) -- Welcome to the big time, Huskies -- let's see if you can put together a second act. Washington seemingly came from nowhere last year to win the Pac-12 and secure a CFP berth, and has enough talent on hand to be a real contender again. However, the defense will undergo a massive overhaul after losing Kevin King, Budda Baker and Sidney Jones from the secondary and Elijah Qualls up front. Look for the D to take a step back, though the return of LB Azeem Victor will soften the blow. Vita Vea should increase his sack total from the five he had last season. Offense isn't nearly as big of an issue as QB Jake Browning (3,430 passing yards, 43 TD) is back. He did lost top receiving weapon John Ross to the NFL, but burner Dante Pettis (53 catches, 15 TD) is no slouch. Myles Gaskin is one of the top backs around, and Lavon Coleman ain't half bad as an understudy (7.5 ypc last year). The early slate is manageable, with just a road swing to Colorado being a real tester in the first half. November closes with Stanford on the road and then home against Utah and Washington State, so it is very conceivable that the Huskies once again play in the league title game. FAST FACT -- The Huskies were the only team in FBS to rank in the top 10 in both scoring offense and scoring defense (8th in both categories).

15. South Florida (11-2) -- Charlie Strong is back where he should be, beneath the white hot light of a Power 5 program and instead leading one of the top Group of Five (or is that Power 6?) teams. Strong did wonders at Louisville when it flew under the radar in the Big East and AAC, and this level seems to be more his speed. This team is ready-made to win, thanks to QB Quinton Flowers, who didn't get the same pub as Lamar Jackson but had almost an equally impressive year -- over 2,800 passing yards, another 1,500 or so rushing yards and 42 TD. USF has three starters back up front, so Flowers should be protected just fine. Seven of the top nine tacklers return, including LB Augie Sanchez, who made 120 stops and six sacks a year ago. There is enough experience here for the Bulls to make a run at a New Years Six bowl game as the highest ranked Group of Five squad. USF should be 4-0 as it hosts Temple, and then really should not be challenged again until November, when it faces Houston and Tulsa in back-to-back weeks. FAST FACT -- South Florida's 6.51 average per carry was second in America in 2016, behind only New Mexico  (6.61).

Tomorrow, it's the top 10, featuring teams 10-5.

25-21

30-26

35-31

40-36

45-41

50-46

55-51

60-56