Thursday, August 31, 2017

Thursday Night Quick Look -- Ohio State at Indiana

 Unfinished business.

 Ohio State coach Urban Meyer has said that his Buckeyes were embarrassed in last year's College Football Playoff, losing 31-0 to eventual national champion Clemson, and that it wasn't going to happen again. He tweaked the coaching staff, made sure that the players knew what they had to do in the offseason and has his Buckeyes ready for another run at the CFP.
Urban Meyer (AP)

 They uncharacteristically begin the season on the road -- just the 11th time ever, though it happened in 2015 in a victory at Virginia Tech -- and against a Big Ten foe, the first time since 1976 (Michigan State, a 49-21 victory) that has occurred.

OHIO STATE
 The Buckeyes enter the game ranked second in the nation and favorites to win the Big Ten East and the conference title. To do that, they will need to be more consistent in the passing game and not have senior quarterback J.T. Barrett shoulder as much of the load as he has in previous seasons.

 Yes, the quarterback always does the heavy lifting in an Urban Meyer offense, but if Barrett leads the team in carries again this year, something went awry. New offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson comes over from Indiana -- OSU's opponent tonight -- and has an offensive philosophy that favors tempo and open space over all else. Look for the Buckeyes to utilize running backs Mike Weber and J.K. Dobbins quite a bit, sprinkle in some jet sweeps and misdirections to Parris Campbell and Demario McCall, and send receivers Austin Mack and K.J. Hill downfield. The offensive line will need to be better after allowing 28 sacks a season ago. Meyer says that bunch has improved and worked their tails off, and he is confident they will do the job.

 Defensively, the Buckeyes have as much talent as anyone, including the best and deepest defensive front in America. Sophomore Nick Bosa would start just about anywhere, but here he's just another piece of a majestic puzzle. Tyquan Lewis and his eight sacks returns at one end spot, and dynamic Sam Hubbard mans the other side. Bosa and Jalyn Holmes provide almost no drop off, and tackles Dre'Mont Jones and Tracy Sprinkle are stout inside. Linebacker Jerome Baker is an All-America candidate, and while the secondary is being rebuilt, it isn't lacking talent. Corner Denzel Ward could be the next in line for stardom, and he leads an athletic, aggressive group.

INDIANA
 The Hoosiers enter battle with question marks on offense and stability on defense, a big reversal from previous seasons. First year coach Tom Allen was elevated from defensive coordinator, and while the Hoosiers have improved on that side, he probably wishes they had a little easier opening contest.

 Richard Lagow is back under center and will need to improve his accuracy (57.8 percent) if the Hoosiers want to become a feared offense. The top two rushers are gone (Divine Redding went over 1,000 yards last year) so an inexperienced crew will tote the pigskin. Look for junior Mike Majette to get the bulk of the work. Simmie Cobbs junior is back after taking a medical redshirt last season, and he's one of the best receivers in America (1,305 yards in 2015). His battle with the Buckeyes secondary will be worth the price of admission. The offensive line is experienced but watched its sack total increase from 13 in 2015 to 29 a year ago. It will be a real task to keep the Buckeyes pass rushers out of the backfield.

 Defensively, it starts and ends with linebacker Tegray Scales. If you haven't seen the Cincinnati native play, you've really missed out. The senior All-America candidate made 126 stops in 2016, with 16.5 TFL and seven sacks. He's not bad in coverage, takes great angles to the football and seldom gets caught up in traffic. The Buckeyes will need to know where he is at all times. The secondary returns intact, led by corner Rashard Fant, who had a whopping 17 PBU a year ago. He's a tad undersized (5-10) but plays the ball extremely well, and isn't afraid to hit. IU's defensive front plays mostly to occupy gaps and funnel the play to the linebackers, though end Greg Gooch (4.5 sacks) is a dependable sort.

BY THE NUMBERS
 Ohio State has won 22 in a row against Indiana, though two of the last three were narrow wins and close heading into the fourth quarter; The Buckeyes are 18-1 on the road the last four seasons (though just 9-8 ATS as an away favorite in that span); OSU has covered four of five season openers under Meyer; OSU is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games in the first month of the season; Indiana is 14-1 in its last 15 home openers; The Hoosiers have covered the last six vs. the Buckeyes, all as double-digit underdogs; IU is 1-3 ATS in its last four conference contests; Indiana went 12-8-1 ATS as a home dog in six seasons under Wilson, including 5-2 when getting 14 or more points.

THE PICK
 Ohio State will be playing with a chip on its shoulder, and Wilson will want to show his old employer a thing or two. He knows how to scheme against that defense and should be able to put the Hoosiers on their heels for much of the night. While Indiana also knows Wilson's tendencies, it's questionable whether they have the players to stop the Buckeyes. In a game that's interesting until halftime, the Buckeyes athleticism and experience -- led by Barrett, who has a big showing -- helps them pull away and win comfortably.
OHIO STATE (-21) 42, INDIANA 14

QUICK PICKS
Central Florida 34, Florida International (+17) 20
Minnesota (-23.5) 40, Buffalo 12
(10) Oklahoma State 44, Tulsa (+18) 28
Utah (-21.5) 38, North Dakota 16
Arizona State 36, New Mexico State (+23.5) 21

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