Monday Musings -- Oct. 30

It may no longer have a great on-field product, but damn if the SEC isn't the most entertaining, dramatic conference in the country when it comes to coaching drama.

Outside of Alabama and Georgia -- and Auburn, some weeks -- the SEC is a big pile of hot garbage. But the coaching melodrama -- it's right up there with the Young and The Restless.

Check this out -- you have a coach who was left for dead (Ed Orgeron) after losing at home to Troy, and all he has done since is win. LSU looks a lot more like the team fans expected it to be, utilizing coordinator Matt Canada's motion elements and passing game, with excellent results.

You have a coach who is basically a dead man walking (Butch Jones), but for some reason his school won't let him go. Tennessee just lost to Kentucky -- Kentucky! -- for the second time in 33 years, and scored its first offensive touchdowns in nearly a month. That's how inept things are in Knoxville. It's anyone's guess as to why the administration hasn't shown Jones the door yet, but it has to be right around the corner. Tennessee claims to have expecatations, but the longer it employs Jones -- who is obviously a bad fit and just isn't working out -- the more it alienates fans. Social media has already seen a slew of UT fans say they are done with the Vols, that they are turning in their orange, what have you. Jones was an outside the box hire when he was brought in after a nice stint making Cincinnati relevant, but it has not gone well.

The Vols are just 33-26 since his hiring in 2013, which is not acceptable in Knoxville. He hasn't been particularly charismatic at the mic, either, which sometimes can give coaches a pass if they are going through a rough patch. No, Jones just has not connected, on any level, really, with the Volunteers fan base, yet the school keeps moving forward with him.

And then you have Jim McElwain, who had the aura of a winner when he was introduced as Florida's head coach three seasons ago after doing wonders for the offense at Colorado State. Seen as a quarterbacks guru, McElwain was a radical change from defensive minded Will Muschamp, whose biggest crime is that he wasn't Steve Spurrier or Urban Meyer. Muschamp's teams were bad, they were just boring. And boring doesn't work in Gainesville.

Enter McElwain, who won two SEC East titles in his first two seasons. Sure, there were some issues at quarterback after Will Grier was popped for PEDs, but those would no doubt be fixed because -- well, McElwain. Only they weren't fixed, and the Gators came into this season with the same issues under center, as well as mass suspensions stemming from players stealing school issued credit cards and making purchases, including iPads and laptops that were bought at discounted prices through the school. The players -- most notably star receiver Antonio Callaway and running back Jordan Scarlett -- later admitted to selling electronics.

The suspensions hampered the Gators from the jump, and they were just 3-2 heading into their rivalry game with Georgia on Saturday. The fact that the Bulldogs bludgeoned Florida 42-7 wasn't the worst thing that happened to McElwain, though -- that came on Sunday, when he and the school parted ways. Some may see this as a football problem, and that definitely exists, but this is more of a culture problem. McElwain opened the week by hinting that he and his coaching staff had received death threats, yet when school administrators asked for specifics or elaboration, he provided none.

Athletic director Scott Stricklin said, "This was more than just wins and losses, and I'll leave it at that."

McElwain's buyout is a hefty $12.75 million, though the school is looking into whether it can fire him without cause, hoping to see the buyout greatly reduced. McElwain has spoken out publicly about initiatives in the athletic department that must occur, and that didn't make him many friends in the department.

McElwain has a championship pedigree, working at Alabama in 2009 as coordinator on an offense that featured Mark Ingram, Julio Jones and A.J. McCarron. So when Florida opened the season 6-0 in 2015, it looked like the fun had returned. But then Grier was caught using PEDs, and later said that McElwain told him it would be better for all parties if they parted ways. Grier didn't want to leave, and had he not there's no telling how much more productive the Gators would be right now.

Randy Shannon -- yes, THAT Randy Shannon -- will take over the balance of the season while the administration starts searching for a successor. If they don't have former Florida assistant Dan Mullen on speed dial, then they're knuckleheads. He would be a perfect fit, has a fertile offensive mind and has won pretty regularly in Starkville -- not exactly a hotbed for recruiting talent. If he decides to stay at Mississippi State -- the Bulldogs are very young this year and could be a real contender next season. That could leave Chip Kelly, who would definitely kickstart the offense, and possibly UCF coach Scott Frost, though many in Nebraska are pining for him to take over from Mike Riley, who is as good as gone at the end of this season.

Did we mention that all of this coaching hubbub kicked off just before the season when Ole Miss let go Hugh Freeze after it was found he called escort services without anyone's knowledge?

Yup, never a dull moment in the SEC.

It's Finally Time
The long-awaited unveiling of the initial College Football Playoff rankings happens on Tuesday night, and everyone has weighed in with what they believe it will be, or their top four.

For the record, I have Georgia, Alabama, Notre Dame and Oklahoma, in that order, with Ohio State and Clemson just outside. Overall body of work is important, and even though I believe the Buckeyes are the better team right now, they weren't better than the Sooners when they played in mid-September. So for now they are behind Oklahoma. But that can certainly change, even if both end up with conference titles and one loss.

You can bet that even though these rankings don't count, everyone will be on social media blasting the committee. They'll wonder why a team -- probably theirs -- wasn't included, and will compare wins with a team ranked higher. Folks, save your breath -- this ranking doesn't matter. In fact, none matter until December, when the final ranking is released.

There is a lot of intriguing football yet to be played, and elimination games will happen each week from now until the end of the season. There are just five unbeatens left, and a handful of others that control their own destiny:

ACC -- Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech
Big 12 -- Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU
B1G -- Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin
Pac 12 -- Washington
SEC -- Alabama, Georgia
Independent -- Notre Dame

So 13 teams vying for four spots. Anyone from the Power 5 that finishes unbeaten will make it, but it will get interesting if you have four league champions with one loss apiece to fill the three other spots -- or maybe even two, since Notre Dame is a lock to be in if it runs the table from here.

Would Washington be left out due its mediocre schedule? What about defending national champ Clemson, which would have a great resume but the worst loss of the group? Ohio State lost to Oklahoma, so would that automatically have the Buckeyes on the outside looking in?

All kinds of scenario are possible, but the best thing to do is let everything work itself out -- because it always does.

That's college football.

Sunday Morning Tally -- Oct. 29

TOP GAMES
(2) Penn State at (6) Ohio State (-6.5)
Pick -- Ohio State 38-28; Score -- Ohio State 39-38 (SU W/ATS L)

(14) North Carolina State at (9) Notre Dame (-7.5)   
Pick -- North Carolina State 28-23; Score -- Notre Dame 35-14 (SU/ATS L)

(4) TCU at (25) Iowa State (+6.5)   
Pick -- TCU 34-30; Score -- Iowa State 14-7 (SU L/ATS W)

OTHER GAMES
(11) Oklahoma State at (22) West Virginia (+7.5)
Pick -- Oklahoma State 38-33; Score -- Oklahoma State 50-39 (SU W/ATS L)

Louisville at Wake Forest (+3)
Pick -- Wake Forest 28-27; Score -- Wake Forest 42-32 (SU/ATS W)

Florida International at Marshall (-17)
Pick -- Marshall 35-13; Score -- Florida International 41-30 (SU/ATS L)

UCLA at (12) Washington (-18)
Pick -- Washington 45-35; Score -- Washington 44-23 (SU W/ATS L)

(3) Georgia vs. Florida (+13.5)
Pick -- Georgia 38-21; Score -- Georgia 42-7 (SU/ATS W)

(16) Michigan State at Northwestern (+2.5)
Pick -- Michigan State 20-15; Score -- Northwestern 39-31 (SU/ATS L)

Houston at (17) South Florida (-11)
Pick -- South Florida 36-23; Score -- Houston 28-24 (SU/ATS L)

Florida Atlantic at Western Kentucky (+6.5)
Pick -- Florida Atlantic 48-40; Score -- Florida Atlantic 42-28 (SU/ATS W)

Utah at Oregon (+3)
Pick -- Oregon 29-24; Score -- Oregon 41-20 (SU/ATS W)

Minnesota at Iowa (-7)
Pick -- Iowa 24-16; Score -- Iowa 17-10 (SU W/ATS P)

UAB at Southern Miss (-12.5)
Pick -- UAB 31-28; Score -- UAB 30-12 (SU/ATS W)

Mississippi State at Texas A&M (+2.5)
Pick -- Texas A&M 27-23; Score -- Mississippi State 35-14 (SU/ATS L)

Duke at (13) Virginia Tech (-15.5)
Pick -- Virginia Tech 38-17; Score -- Virginia Tech 24-3 (SU/ATS W)

Georgia Tech at (7) Clemson (-14)
Pick -- Clemson 37-21; Score -- Clemson 24-10 (SU W/ATS P)

Texas Tech at (10) Oklahoma (-20)
Pick -- Oklahoma 49-24; Score -- Oklahoma 49-27 (SU/ATS W)

(15) Washington State at Arizona (+2.5)
Pick -- Arizona 40-38; Score -- Arizona 58-37 (SU/ATS W)

(21) USC at Arizona State (+3.5)
Pick -- Arizona State 38-35; Score -- USC 48-17 (SU/ATS L)

2017 RECORD
SU -- Week 13-7, Season 176-56 (75.8%); ATS -- Week 9-9-2, Season 124-104-4 (53.4%)

By The Numbers -- Oct. 28

Quick note before getting to this week's games -- what genius at the TV networks decided that starting the weekend's three marquee games at the same time was a good idea (not to mention Georgia/Florida)? Separate time slots means better ratings all around -- couldn't one have been pushed to noon and the other into an evening slot? It's not like TCU is coming off a .7 rating or anything .... oh wait.

Anyway, end of rant. On to the games.

TOP GAMES
(2) Penn State at (6) Ohio State
ANALYSIS
A lot has been made about Ohio State's offensive improvement, much of it centered on the Buckeyes playing a string of soft touches. And that's fair. However, why isn't the same being said about Penn State? Just whom have the Nittany Lions beaten? And is their top 10 defense a byproduct of facing offenses with an average rank of 95? We're about to find out. Make no mistake, Penn State can bring it -- Saquon Barkley is a highlight reel, tight end Mike Gesecki is a freakish athlete, and the defense plays about as well together as any unit in the country. Penn State is aggressive on defense and loves to bring safety Marcus Allen up into the box -- which could leave the middle seam open for J.T. Barrett (who hasn't turned the ball over since the Oklahoma game) to hit something quick. Defensively, the Buckeyes would be wise to put most of their efforts into stopping Barkley -- easier said than done -- and see if Trace McSorley can beat them. If OSU can keep McSorley in the pocket, it wins. If it lets him get outside, then it could be a long night. Look for Urban Meyer to bring out a few new wrinkles off the bye week, including having J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber on the field at the same time. While the Nittany Lions have the BEST player, the Buckeyes have MORE players. PSU is 2-9 in its last 11 trips to Columbus while the Buckeyes are 23-2 in their last 25 home games. Meyer is 21-1 off of bye weeks in his years as head coach, going back to Bowling Green, including winning 20 straight.
Line -- Ohio State -6.5; Pick -- Ohio State 38-28

(14) North Carolina State at (9) Notre Dame
ANALYSIS
No fancy stuff here, this one will be all about the trenches -- Notre Dame has nation's sixth best rushing offense and NC State has the sixth best rushing defense. The Irish will want to get Josh Adams going early, and having Brandon Wimbush as a running threat could pose a few problems for NC State. So whoever wins that battle wins the game. It's not that simple, obviously, but if the Wolfpack can get up early and unleash the hounds -- Bradley Chubb and crew -- the Irish could be in a world of hurt because they simply don't have the passing attack to play catch-up. Notre Dame will have to find a way to knock NC State QB Ryan Finley off rhythm, but that's easier said than done since he hasn't thrown an interception in over 300 passes. Jaylen Samuels will be all over the place in the passing game, and Nyheim Hines has really come along running the football. You know both teams will be bringing it because each knows that the loser is out of the race for the College Football Playoff. It looks like the Irish might be getting just a tad overvalued here.
Line -- Notre Dame -7.5; Pick -- North Carolina State 28-23

(4) TCU at (25) Iowa State
ANALYSIS
You have to assume more eyes will be on this one than on last weekend's TCU game (see above), but the challenge will be greater, too. Matt Campbell has the Cyclones playing well above their talent level, and that means the Horned Frogs will need to be ready to go from the outset. TCU is 3-0 on the road this season, holding two of those opponents to seven points or less. ISU has been getting it done with opportunistic turnovers and a solid defense, and will have the belief it can get this one done. TCU would be wise to air it out, and with KaVontae Turpin and Jalen Reagor have two guys that could create nightmares for the Cyclones subpar pass defense. TCU could find the going a bit tougher on the ground, but it has grown enough this season that if one thing isn't working, it goes to another. The Cyclones tall, physical receiving corps, led by future NFL star Allen Lazard, could cause some problems for TCU's secondary. Iowa State hasn't won at home as a ranked team since beating Missouri in 2002, and will likely see that streak continue.
Line -- TCU -6.5; Pick -- TCU 34-30

OTHER GAMES
(11) Oklahoma State at (22) West Virginia -- Everyone is expecting a shootout here, and with TD pass leader Will Grier on one side and yardage leader Mason Rudolph on the other, it just might happen. Injuries have hampered the Cowboys, who scored just 13 points last week against Texas and got really conservative with the play calling. WVU got up big before allowing Baylor to score 23 points in the fourth quarter, and escaped by two points. The more aggressive team will win here, and neither is afraid to take shots downfield. OSU has James Washington and WVU has David Sills, and both are among the most explosive receivers in the country. The winner will still be in the race for the Big 12 title, while the loser will absorb a second loss and all but fall out of the picture.
Line -- Oklahoma State -7.5; Pick -- Oklahoma State 38-33

Louisville at Wake Forest -- Want to know why Wake has dropped three in a row? Easy -- it can't produce any offense, and can no longer stop anyone. Early in the season Wake was making life difficult for opponents, but no longer. You can bet Lamar and friends will be on a high after its last second win over Florida State last weekend -- and yes, it feels good to beat the Noles, even when they aren't as strong as usual. If Wake can get back to running the football and taking time off the clock it can create some problems for a Cards D that hasn't always responded to toughness.
Line -- Louisville -3; Pick -- Wake Forest 28-27

Florida International at Marshall -- The Thundering Herd have been thundering over foes, winning five straight and playing some of the best defense no one knows about. Marshall ranks 21st in total defense, and has allowed more than 10 points just once in the last five games. FIU isn't bad defensively, but just cannot score -- 17 or fewer in three of the last four games. Look for Chase Hancock and his crew to have a big game and shut down Butch Davis' Panthers.
Line -- Marshall -17; Pick -- Marshall 35-13

UCLA at (12) Washington -- This has been a surprisingly lopsided series, with the Bruins winning 13 of the last 16, including 44-30 in the last matchup in 2014. Washington scored seven points in its last game and suffered a slew of injuries, including critical ones in the secondary. That has to make Josh Rosen's eyes light up, no? The Bruins are last in America at stopping the run and have allowed an average of 51 points in three road losses this season. The Huskies will want to make a statement, especially at home and especially with the North Division crown still in play.
Line -- Washingon -18; Pick -- Washington 45-35

(3) Georgia vs. Florida (at Jacksonville) -- It's odd that this game is about fourth or fifth on the excitement meter this week, but that's more because of the state of the Florida program than anything else. Gators Jim McElwain added some drama to the week by claiming he and his coaches have received death threats, but then would not elaborate when asked about it by his superiors. This is the just the latest in a season of turmoil in Gainesville, much of it self-created. We know that Georgia always finds a way to make this one closer than it has to be, or loses outright when it has no business doing so. But that can't happen this time -- can it? Florida has won 21 of the past 26 meetings.
Line -- Georgia -13.5; Pick -- Georgia 38-21

(16) Michigan State at Northwestern -- Everyone keeps waiting for Sparty to slip up, believing they are doing it with mirrors. I mean, there's no way a team with this little offense can keep winning, right? Well, if they continue to play defense as they have been (fourth nationally) they sure can. Northwestern has gotten it together after a slow start and might have turned around its season after knocking off Iowa a week ago. MSU had to bus to Evanston after its plane was grounded, so did not get a chance for a walkthrough on Friday -- which means it could be slow to get going. This should be another game that's appreciated by B1G purists -- meaning scoring will be at a premium. The visitor has won nine of the last 10 meetings.
Line -- Michigan State -2.5; Pick -- Michigan State 20-15

Houston at (17) South Florida -- The Bulls are one of eight unbeatens, but aren't getting much respect due to a schedule that ranks near the bottom of FBS. Even so, that doesn't change the fact that Quinton Flowers is still one of the more dynamic playmakers in the country, throwing for 12 touchdowns and running for seven more. The Bulls are ranked in the top 20 in both total offense and total defense, so there is a lot of balance. Houston has lost two straight, giving up over 40 points in both contests. Major Applewhite's first season has not gone quite to plan, but the Cougars would love nothing more than to upset USF's bid for national acclaim.
Line -- South Florida -11; Pick -- South Florida 36-23

Florida Atlantic at Western Kentucky -- Lane Kiffin's squad has exploded offensively the last few weeks, putting up 38, 58 and 69 points. That means more publicity for Lane, which he loves. The Hilltoppers have been under the radar despite winning four in a row, getting it done with defense. Mike White has been solid as usual at quarterback, tossing 12 TDs to just 4 INTs. WKU has injuries in its secondary, which could lead to another high scoring day for the Owls.
Line -- Florida Atlantic -6.5; Pick -- Florida Atlantic 48-40

Utah at Oregon -- This could be called the "Offenses Going South" showdown, as neither team has been able to put much together recently. Utah has dropped three straight and Oregon has done the same, but the Ducks best scoring output in those games was 14 last week against a historically bad UCLA defense. If Oregon can't get it done against the Bruins, how is it going to accomplish anything against the Utes, which has a pretty solid stop unit? Last time here Utah put up 62 points, but Ducks have a way of surprising
Line -- Utah -3; Pick -- Oregon 29-24

Minnesota at Iowa -- The best trophy in America -- a bronzed pig named Floyd of Rosedale -- is on the line here, which means nothing else need be said. Minnesota hasn't won in Iowa City since 1999, but the games have usually been pretty competitive. When there's a pig on the line, what else would you expect? Look for Iowa to pass a bit more than usual to exploit an inconsistent Minnesota secondary.
Line -- Iowa -7; Pick -- Iowa 24-16

UAB at Southern Miss -- These are typically wild games, including overtimes and last-second finishes. This one could be the same, especially if Blazers QB A.J. Erdely plays as he has been. The junior with a big arm has eight TDs to just two INTs and has completed over 65 percent in two of the last three games. The Golden Eagles have talented Ito Smith in the backfield, and UAB must be tuned in to stopping him from running all over the place. UAB has won five of the last six meetings.
Line -- Southern Miss -12.5; Pick -- UAB 31-28

Mississippi State at Texas A&M -- Two teams looking to become bowl eligible square off in College Station, and both feature excellent dual threat quarterbacks. The Bulldogs have the electric Nick Fitzgerald and the Aggies have the improving Kellen Mond. Both teams will want to control the clock, which means it could come down to one team hitting an explosive play or two. Bulldogs, say hello to Christian Kirk.
Line -- Mississippi State -2.5;  Pick -- Texas A&M 27-23

Duke at (13) Virginia Tech -- Almost no one talks about this series, but if you're looking for down to the wire, you couldn't do any better. The last four games have been decided by three points or fewer, and the cumulative score is 95-94 in favor of Duke. The visitor has won each of the last four times, but Duke's offense has stagnated in recent weeks, and that's not a good thing against the Hokies. Tech has won four of its last five, scoring 38 or more in three of the games. Joshua Jackson to Cam Phillips is one of the most lethal combos in the ACC, and given Duke's shaky play against the pass in recent weeks, that pair could be in line for big things.
Line -- Virginia Tech -15.5; Pick -- Virginia Tech 38-17

Georgia Tech at (7) Clemson -- Tech is just two points from being unbeaten, yet seems like a real long shot to knock off the Tigers. For one thing, Clemson has gone 78 games without losing twice in a row. And for another, the Tigers are 10-0 following a defeat dating back to 2011. With a week to have gotten healthy and regrouped, Clemson should be ready for a big stretch run. Clemson's run D is strong and should be able to contain Georgia Tech's rushing enough just enough. Clemson has won four of the last five and has held Tech to 166 yards on 80 carries in the last two games.
Line -- Clemson -14; Pick -- Clemson 37-21

Texas Tech at (10) Oklahoma -- Ever wonder if Baker Mayfield has a voodoo doll of Kliff Kingsbury that he occasionally punches, or pokes with a stick pin? Kingsbury was coach when Mayfield was a walk-on for the Red Raiders and apparently wasn't smart enough to see that Mayfield was the most talented quarterback on the roster. Tech has lost three of its last four games, and five straight to Oklahoma, which still controls its destiny in the Big 12 race. The Sooners have put up 42, 63 and 66 in the last three meetings, and given the state of the Red Raiders defense it could be more of the same.
Line -- Oklahoma -20; Pick -- Oklahoma 49-24

(15) Washington State at Arizona -- Even though they'll go about it differently, this one is all about the quarterbacks. Wazzu has Luke Falk, who wants to throw it all over the place, and Arizona has Khalil Tate, who is worth staying up late to watch. Tate has averaged over 15 yards per carry in three starts and has put the Wildcats on the brink of bowl eligibility in a season when little was expected. It should be an interesting test for Tate, as Wazzu has a very good rushing defense, including DT Hercules Mata'afa and LB Frankie Luvu up the middle.
Line -- Washington State -2.5; Pick -- Arizona 40-38

(21) USC at Arizona State -- USC has lost its last two road games, and now heads to Tempe to face a surging Sun Devils squad that has designs on the Pac-12 South Division crown. The two-headed monster of Kalen Ballage and Demario Richard could be trouble for the Trojans, who have been pounded by good rushing teams. ASU has back to back wins over Washington and Utah and seems to be gaining confidence by the week. The teams have split the last six meetings.
Line -- USC -3.5; Pick -- Arizona State 38-35

2017 RECORD
SU -- Week (TH/F) 6-1, Season 163-49; ATS -- Week (TH/F) 2-5,  Season 115-95-2

No. 4 TCU Takes On Ranked Cyclones In Big 12 Battle

Who would have ever believed that Ames, Iowa, would be a place where meaningful football would be played in late October?

The last four seasons have produced a total of 11 wins -- no more than three in any one season -- and spunky Iowa State was tabbed ninth in the 10-team Big 12 in the preseason. But a season-changing victory at Oklahoma began a three-game winning streak, and now the 25th-ranked Cyclones have something very dangerous -- confidence.

TCU QB Kenny Hill has fueled his team's high octane offense (Dallas Morning News)

"Ever since the win at Oklahoma, our confidence is crazy now," top receiver Allen Lazard said. "We trust each other and we trust what the coaches are doing. Just knowing that we can rely on each other, it helps us keep our poise and be able to execute in critical situations."

ISU (5-2, 3-1) is ranked for the first time in 12 years, and will need to rely on that confidence and high-level play if it wants to knock off visiting fourth-ranked TCU on Saturday.

The Horned Frogs (7-0, 4-0) were, like Iowa State, something of an afterthought in the preseason, chosen to finish fifth in the conference. But dominating showings in their first three games led up to their defining moment of 2017 (at least thus far) -- a big win in Stillwater over favored Oklahoma State. That was followed by a nailbiter against West Virginia, but since then TCU has been operating with precision, including setting a conference record by allowing just 21 yards to Kansas last Saturday.

The lofty ranking is nice, but TCU can't just expect to waltz into Jack Trice Stadium -- where it is 3-0 since joining the Big 12 -- and think Iowa State will be a pushover.

"Right now we're 7-0 and we need to get to 8-0," TCU coach Gary Patterson said. "This one will be tougher. I said before the season that Iowa State was going to be a tough ballgame, and that's not even knowing what I know now."

TCU has gotten it done with balance, averaging 466.3 yards per game and ranking ninth in scoring at 41.6 points per contest. Whether it's Darius Anderson and his 76 yards per game and six scores or the receiving tandem of KaVontae Turpin (23-238-1) and Jalen Reagor (18-298-4), the Horned Frogs have weapons everywhere.

They also have a quarterback in Kenny Hill to make it all go. His resurrection, from phenom at Texas A&M to being benched and eventually leaving College Station to arriving at TCU and writing a second chapter, has been the story for this offense, and the Horned Frogs wouldn't be where they are today without Hill's leadership and strong play.

Hill is 11th in the country in passer rating and is completing a ridiculous 70.2 percent of his passes. His decision-making has been exemplary, with 15 TDs to just three interceptions, and he has matured greatly.

He tossed five TD passes against Kansas, and said afterward, "Whatever it takes to win, that's what we're going to do."

The Horned Frogs defense is no slouch, ranking third in the country against the run (80.7 ypg) and ninth in points allowed (14.9). They are also first in opponents third down percentage (27.8), so if they can use that and their ability to keep Iowa State's big play offense on the sideline, their march to the Big 12 title game will continue.

Iowa State is the Cinderella story of the league, and while improvement was expected under second-year coach Matt Campbell, few believed the Cyclones would be in the thick of the conference race this late into the season.

Attention to detail and not making mistakes has been ISU's calling card, ranking 10th nationally in turnover margin.

"Our recipe for success is don't make mistakes, don't turn the ball over, force opponents to make some mistakes, and when they do, you got to do a great job of winning situational football," Campbell said. "We can look back for the last three weeks, that's what's worked for us. When we've lost, we've been the ones that made mistakes."

Iowa State has 25 plays between 30 and 59 yards this season, and much of has come in the passing game. The Cyclones average 279 yards per game through the air, with quarterback Kyle Kempt hitting on 69.7 percent of his passes since taking over starting duties three games ago. He has seven TDs to just one interception and isn't afraid to test defenses downfield, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt.

Iowa State WR Allen Lazard is a big play force (Iowa Student Daily)

In Lazard (33-371-5) and Hakeem Butler (16.4 yards per catch, three TDs) he has a pair of tall wideouts, which could pose problems for TCU's active but undersized secondary.

"We've got to contest every shot. It's like you're playing basketball," Patterson said.

David Montgomery is the bulwark of the backfield, averaging 91.7 yards per game with eight touchdowns. He loves picking up the tough yards up the middle and is a threat out of the backfield, with 21 catches.

TCU is active in its 4-2-5 and doesn't have a lot of real weak spots on that side of the ball. Ben Banogu leads the way up front with 4.5 sacks and 8.5 tackles for loss, and safeties Nick Orr and Travin Howard are among the biggest hitters in the conference.

Campbell knows that finding big plays against the Horned Frogs will be a major challenge.

“It’s hard to create matchups against a team like that,” Campbell said. “You have to make plays when they’re out there – and that’s easier said than done.”

Iowa State is solid against the run (120.4 yards per game), led by linebacker Marcel Spears Jr and his 8.7 tackles per game, but has sometimes had problems against good passing teams.

A victory would likely put TCU among the top four teams in the College Football Playoff rankings, which will be unveiled on Halloween night. But that isn't what motivates Patterson or his team.

"I have to win a ballgame for it to matter to us," Patterson said. "Maybe I'll think about that on Sunday. ... We need to make sure that we take care of our business, and we'll see what everybody has to say after that."

While a loss might harm the CFP hopes, it would not necessarily end TCU's goal of winning the Big 12 title. The top two teams will square off in a first-ever championship game, and TCU is very much in the picture for that race.

"If this team can work through and navigate this season with no or one loss ... playing on the road in places we have to go, things you have to do, it truly would be an amazing feat by this group," Patterson said. "It's hard to do."

Iowa State is just 1-10-2 in games where both teams are ranked, and the last time the Cyclones won as a ranked team at home was in 2002 against Missouri.

Ranked Wolfpack And Irish Ready For Elimination Contest

Just how much is on the line in this Saturday's tussle between 14th-ranked North Carolina State and No. 9 Notre Dame?

I'll take "College Football Playoff elimination games for $800, Alex."

After early stumbles, both teams have reset and gotten themselves back into the playoff discussion. The Wolfpack, seen as a chic pick to upset the ACC hierarchy, lost right off the bat to South Carolina, but have been nails ever since.

Notre Dame RB Josh Adams fuels a powerful Irish offense (One Foot Down)

Notre Dame (6-1), mostly an afterthought at the start of the season based largely on last year's 4-8 fiasco, has ascended up the rankings thanks to a powerful ground game -- the nation's sixth best, as a matter of fact -- and has only a one-point loss to Georgia as a blemish.

While both teams are aware of the carrot dangling overhead, neither is ready to deviate from the blueprint that has taken them to this point.

"You just have to be aware of your situation," Irish coach Brian Kelly said. "You've gotten here because you have stuck to what we have asked you to do. They're aware of the big picture stuff, but they know how they got here, and they like where they're at."

NC State (6-1) has reeled off six victories in a row and has been stingy when it comes to giving up the football. The Wolfpack have lost just three fumbles, and quarterback Ryan Finley has yet to throw an interception. Yeah, he's pretty good.

This is the first real spotlight game of the season for the Wolfpack, and coach Dave Doeren believes they will handle it well.

"All we have been talking about is us and our enemy," Doeren said. "All that other stuff will take care of itself. You focus on what has brought you success. People are chasing you instead of you chasing them."

The Wolfpack, sixth nationally against the run, allowing just 91.3 yards per game, need to make sure they aren't chasing Notre Dame running back Josh Adams, who has entered the Heisman race by rolling up 138.1 yards per game and scoring eight touchdowns. The explosive Adams averages 9.2 yards per carry, and in tandem with quarterback Brandon Wimbush, who averages 6.2 yards per carry with 10 rushing scores, forms the crux of an overpowering ground game.

"I'm excited to watch the line of scrimmage in this game," Doeren said.

Notre Dame thrives on getting teams to turn the football over, ranking fourth in turnover margin. The Irish have converted 13 of their 17 turnovers into touchdowns, but face a tough customer in Finley.

The senior and former Boise State signal-caller has tossed 11 touchdowns and is completing 69.4 percent of his passes. He has a bevy of weapons, notably Jaylen Samuels (54 catches, 453 yards, 3 TDs) and Kelvin Harmon (36-547-2 TD), and the offensive line has allowed just eight sacks.

"Finley is smart, knows the system, a veteran quarterback," Kelly said. "Just does a really good job taking care of the football."

NC State also has a nice backfield weapon in Nyheim Hines, who averages 92.6 yards per game and has six touchdowns, but it wouldn't be surprising if the visitors attempt to take advantage of an Irish defense that allows 253 yards per game through the air.

Adams and Wimbush will be a huge focus for the Wolfpack defense, which is led by versatile end Bradley Chubb. The senior has 13 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks and leads a group that knows just one speed -- full-go. His matchup with Irish tackle Mike McGlinchey should be worth the price of admission.

NC State's Bradley Chubb is one of the nation's most feared DL (Shanahan Report)

"Defensively, you know, I think as good of a group that we're going to see. Comparable to Georgia," Kelly said. "Physically very imposing. It's led with Chubb and [B.J.] Hill up front. Obviously they're getting the accolades that they deserve. They are very good football players.

"Chubb obviously has the ability to rush the passer, as well, plays with a great motor. I think what I'm impressed with is that not only they're physical, but they play hard every snap. ... We've got our hands full in all three facets."

Notre Dame is coming off of a dominating performance over rival USC, but NC State is the beginning of a stretch of grueling games against winning teams. Notre Dame has games upcoming against No. 8 Miami, Navy and Stanford.

The Irish have won five straight games by more than 20 points, but lost to NC State a year ago 10-3 in Raleigh in monsoon-like conditions.

North Carolina State shouldn't be fazed by the number next to the Irish, as it already sports a pair of victories over teams that were ranked -- Florida State and Louisville. It hasn't beaten three ranked teams in a single season since 1992, and this is the first time since 1980 that the Wolfpack are involved in a game featuring a pair of top 15 teams.

The Wolfpack has everything in its path, but needs to guard against looking ahead because next week is a home game against ACC champion Clemson -- a contest that could very well determine the Atlantic Division title.

Doeren doesn't have to be reminded what is awaiting his team at Notre Dame Stadium.

"It's a top 10 team at their stadium, it means a lot," he said. "We don't need to be perfect. We just need to be better."

Doeren may be in Raleigh, but he's no stranger to the Notre Dame mystique.

“I grew up in a Catholic home, going to Catholic church and that was part of the Sunday conversation,” Doeren said. “Every week it was the Notre Dame score, so I grew up brainwashed there, probably, with Lou Holtz as their head coach and a lot of great players that I got to watch. I really look forward to playing this game.”

B1G Supremacy On The Line Saturday In Columbus

Now it gets real.

There's an old saying about November is when you separate the contenders from the pretenders, but this B1G battle is happening a week early, with the winner getting a big leg up in the race to the East Division title and a berth in the College Football Playoff. 

Second-ranked Penn State, fresh off of a 42-14 demolition of Michigan, comes in to Columbus to take on No. 6 Ohio State, which had the week off. This is the first time both teams have been ranked in the top 10 since 2008, when No. 3 Penn State topped No. 10 OSU 13-6 in Columbus. The game kicks off at 3:30 in Ohio Stadium, where the Buckeyes have lost just once in Big Ten play under Urban Meyer.

Penn State RB Saquon Barkley has the attention of Ohio State's defense (Sports Illustrated)

The Nittany Lions upended No. 2 OSU last year in Happy Valley, blocking a punt and a field goal, the latter being returned for the game-winning score in a 24-21 victory. That really got things going for Penn State, which won out and ended up winning the Big Ten and going right down to the wire against USC in the Rose Bowl before falling 52-49.

"I don't think there's any doubt when you find a way as an organization to beat the No. 2 team in the country, I don't care where you're at in your program's development, things like that, those wins have a big impact from a lot of different perspectives," Penn State coach James Franklin said.

Meyer remembers last year's game very well, and while he stopped short of saying that it is a driving force in OSU practices this week, it can be used to good effect at times.
 

"Sure. Revenge is a motivator, hell yeah it is. I'm not saying this will be it," he said. "But there's times where we've used it and looked silly using it. There's other times it's worked. It's about execution of a game plan more than anything else."

Both teams enter the game with impressive stats, Heisman candidates and admiration from the other side. 

Penn State leads the country in scoring defense (9.6 points per game) and pass defense (94.02 opposing passer rating, nine interceptions), while the Buckeyes are first in scoring offense (47.3) and fourth in passing (171.3 rating).

All eyes will be on Nittany Lions running back Saquon Barkley, the Heisman leader at the turn, and though he has never scored a touchdown in two games against the Buckeyes, he has averaged over eight yards per carry. Barkley has 12 touchdowns for the season, in nearly every fashion imaginable -- rushing, receiving and returning. He will be first, second and third in any game-planning the Buckeyes do.

"He's the best all-purpose guy we've faced in probably, maybe my career," Meyer said. "He's obviously a great running back. But they do a good job using him and creating matchup issues. You have different ways to bottle up great running backs, but this guy, it's hard. The fact they motion him out and create matchup nightmares, that's what makes this guy -- he's as good an all-purpose running back we've seen. And that's 30 years." 

OSU quarterback J.T. Barrett has rebounded from a slow start, and now ranks fourth in the country in passer rating. His decision making has been off the charts, tossing just one interception to 21 touchdowns.

Franklin knows that his pass defense, led by shutdown corner Grant Haley and safety Marcus Allen, will be tested by OSU's passing attack.

Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett is one of the top dual threats in the nation

"J.T. Barrett has been playing at Ohio State for … I think this is his 16th year maybe going on 17,” Franklin joked. "He's one of the most successful quarterbacks in school history, if not the most. He's one of the most successful quarterbacks in Big Ten history and nationally. I mean you got to just completely respect everything that that guy's been able to do in his career and everything I know about him and have heard about him, he's a class act. So that's going to be a challenge for us because he can beat you with his legs, he can beat you with his arm, he can beat you with his mind."

Both defenses love to pin back their ears and make plays in the opposing backfield. Penn State is fourth in the country in sacks, Ohio State is fifth in tackles for loss. Buckeyes sophomore Nick Bosa has been a real force, recording 10 tackles for loss and four sacks despite averaging just 34 snaps per contest.

Penn State has been humming offensively for much of the season, but the Buckeyes have just started to find their footing in the last month. Some will say OSU's improvement is tied to playing some of the sad sacks of the conference, and there is some truth to that. But as much as the execution has improved, so has the philosophy. No longer are the coaches attempting to fit square pegs into round holes, and the results have been proven on the field.

"We all know Kevin Wilson is a really, really good offensive coach and been successful wherever he's been and I think early in the season they were still trying to kind of find their offensive identity," Franklin said. "And they found it now and they're putting up big time points and yards on everybody and you knew it was just a matter of time because Kevin's such a good coach and they got so many good players."

The Buckeyes are coming off of a bye week, which has typically been a good thing for Meyer coached squads. Meyer teams are 21-1 following an off week, and that includes three victories over top-10 teams.

Penn State had a bye before last year's contest and won the game, so there do appear to be obvious benefits.

"There's no doubt about it," Franklin said. "You just have more time for everything. More time to recover, more time to get healthy, more time to watch film and plan. It's valuable. I think it's probably the most valuable thing we have on this earth is time and a bye week creates that."    

There are plenty of statistics that can lead fans to think one team has an edge over the other -- the home team has won 10 of the last 17 meetings, the higher ranked team is 19-3 since Penn State joined the conference in 1993. 

But numbers and stats won't determine the winner on Saturday. 

Confidence and execution and lack of fear will. Is someone willing to take a risk, to throw caution to the wind, to stamp themselves in history? 

"I know some people call it a process, some people call it whatever, and it's all true," Meyer said. "I call it a culture within a program. And culture is driven by leaders. If you have very strong leaders on the field and very strong leaders in the coaching rooms, you tend to have great performances against great teams."     

Monday Musings -- Oct. 23

There are many ho-hum weeks during the course of a typical college football season, weeks where games that looked good on paper don't live up to the hype, and add to an overall disappointment.

We had one of those this past weekend, as marquee matchups between Notre Dame/USC and Penn State/Michigan turned into curb stomps. We it not for some drama from Miami and a down-to-the-wire ending between Oklahoma and Kansas State, it would have been a very uneventful weekend.

Fans can get through those letdowns because of weekends like the one upcoming -- four, count 'em, four games featuring ranked teams, highlighted by a B1G showdown in the Horseshoe between the league's two best teams, No. 2 Penn State and No. 6 Ohio State. Throw in a couple of interesting Big 12 games (which we will get to shortly) and a de facto CFP elimination game in South Bend between North Carolina State and Notre Dame, and you have the possibility for one of the most dramatic weekends in recent memory.

Ohio State hosts Penn State Saturday in a marquee B1G showdown (Eleven Warriors)

It isn't often that there are this many high-stakes contests this late in the season, so the football gods have smiled on fans.

Should Penn State lose, it will fall behind the Buckeyes in the race for the East Division crown, and should the Buckeyes win out the Nittany Lions will have major problems regaining traction because their schedule ends with Michigan State, Rutgers, Nebraska and Maryland. Not many opportunities to class up the resume. OSU, meanwhile, has Michigan State and Michigan yet to play, and while we still don't know a lot about Sparty, and while Michigan looks pretty average, both are, for the moment, marquee games. No Penn State in the B1G title game means no shot at the CFP, if both they and the Buckeyes have one loss.

Should the Buckeyes lose, their season would, for all intents and purposes, be over. Urban Meyer aims for more than just league titles, he aims for national titles, and has three in his pocket already. Two losses would end any shot at OSU making the playoff, and probably mean no top tier bowl game, either. At many schools two losses would be a wonderful season, but Ohio State is not one of those. So there is probably a bit more on the line for Ohio State in this game, but it isn't without peril for the visitors, to be sure.

It will be great to see the atmosphere in Columbus, because if there's one thing Buckeye Nation knows how to do, it's host a big game. The fans will be off the hook, even for a non-prime time kickoff, and will hope that the team gives them reason to keep cheering.

It will be great to see Saquon Barkley against an OSU defense which allows just 2.93 yards per rush, and which has limited opponents to just 17 gains of 10+ yards, nine of 20+ and three of 30+. Michigan came into its tilt with Penn State with glowing numbers against the run, but had actually allowed more explosive runs by opponents than the Buckeyes have. Barkley is in the top 10 in most explosive run categories, so it will be a game within a game to see which side gains the upper hand.

It will be intriguing to see if the improvement shown by OSU quarterback J.T. Barrett is real, or completely a byproduct of the Buckeyes playing poor pass defenses. There is no doubt some of that is involved, but Barrett does look like a different player throwing the ball then he did against Oklahoma. Bad foes or not, Barrett is now going through progressions instead of tapping the ball and running, leading receivers and, maybe most importantly, pushing it downfield, which was his big knock. PSU hasn't allowed a passing touchdown for two straight games, and has given up just four plays of 30+ yards through the air. I do think the Buckeyes will be able to run on PSU, especially with Barrett's dual capabilities. But the Buckeyes will need to make some plays through the air if they are to win the game.

OSU has won four of the last five in the series, and four straight in Columbus, but only eight times since 2002 has the home team come out ahead. So there are plenty of storylines to follow in this one, and if the game lives up even halfway to the hype surrounding it, it will be a classic.

Not to be outdone, Notre Dame hosts North Carolina State, and with little hope of a monsoon drifting into South Bend (see last year's game in Raleigh) the Irish could be ready to exact some revenge on a Wolfpack squad that has rebounded nicely from an unexpected opening loss to South Carolina. Both teams have a defeat, so the loser here basically goes home, at least as far as the playoff is concerned.

The Big 12 will have its Judgment Day, with unbeaten TCU heading to Ames to take on -- can it be? -- resurgent Iowa State, and Oklahoma State goes travels to Morgantown to take on Will Grier and his crew.

TCU already has victories over Oklahoma State and WVU, but has Texas and Oklahoma the next two weekends, so it isn't out of the woods just yet. The Horned Frogs certainly control their Big 12 destiny, especially if they keep winning. Iowa State hasn't won seven games since the 2009 season, and hasn't been in the mix for league honors since 2004-05, when they finished first and second in the North Division. The Cyclones have beaten TCU just once, and it is a tall order, but as we have seen with the Big 12 (and other conferences), anything can happen.

Oklahoma State and West Virginia each have one loss in conference play, so, barring complete turmoil in November, the loser would be out of the running for the league title game. The Cowboys are unbeaten on the road this year, and West Virginia hasn't lost at home, so something will have to give. Expect a lot of points as both teams love to air it out.

Here's hoping that this weekend turns out to be more compelling than the one that just finished, especially with the big games.

It would make everything that's come before seem worth it.

Four Is Fine
I've been seeing a lot of Twitter discussion about how much people love the College Football Playoff, but that it could be so much better if it jumped from four teams to eight.

Don't count me as one of those people, because I believe the playoff is perfect as it is.

Some may argue about the process, and though there are flaws, it is tons better than the BCS ever was. A committee knows much more about football than pollsters and computers, which is why the first three years of the playoff have been right on the money.

Among eight team proposals, the most logical would be including all Power 5 champions, and three wild cards, which is all right on the surface, but is there any real criteria for what the wild cards can be? Is there a limit to the number of teams one conference can have? Must a Group of Five team be included? Will the Playoff expand to six hours?

Four is a great number, for myriad reasons -- it keeps the regular season special, allows teams that slip up once to get back on track but doesn't allow for a second loss. It rewards teams that have played in stronger leagues -- why is a given that all of the Power 5 conferences be included, especially since they are not of equal strength (we're looking at you, Pac-12)? Going into the season not knowing which conference(s) will be left out of the mix adds to the drama, and makes each weekend more exciting.

A big reason why many, including myself, are against eight teams, is because it begins to water down the field. Do we really need a bunch of two loss teams in the playoff? Assuming a Group of Five team is mandated to be in, this is what last year's field would have looked like --

-- Alabama
-- Clemson
-- Ohio State
-- Washington

Those were the four teams with one or fewer losses, which made a nice little line of demarcation. After that quartet, you would have had, based on remaining CFP standings:

-- Penn State
-- Michigan
-- Oklahoma
-- Western Michigan

So that would have provided an OSU/Michigan rematch and an Alabama/Western Michigan bloodbath. Maybe PSU/Washington and Clemson/Oklahoma would have been entertaining -- but they wouldn't be necessary, because Penn State and Oklahoma lost twice.

Adding a layer to the playoffs does two things -- it puts health at a premium, with more games meaning more chance for injury, and it raises the possibility that a "hot team" gets enough momentum to upset the apple cart and win the crown. Do we want this to turn into the NCAA Basketball Tournament, where the best team doesn't always win, but the hottest often does? Does anyone really think the 69th best basketball team really has a legit shot to cut down the nets, or even deserves that chance? So why would the eighth or ninth best football team have that chance?

The College Football Playoff isn't about finding the "hottest" teams, it's about finding the best teams. With four entrants, the possibility of messing things up is very slim. With eight, it becomes higher. A two loss team that maybe reels off five straight to close the season is to be admired, but that doesn't mean it deserves a shot at the brass ring. You want in? Don't lose two games.

And yes, the committee got it right last year by including Ohio State over Penn State, despite the Nittany Lions head to head win and Big Ten championship.

Critics say that the committee always talks about the value of a conference title, and that should definitely mean something. However, nothing is written into the bylaws about it meaning automatic inclusion into the field, and the committee compares teams with like records against each other, which is why it saw Penn State a notch below the Buckeyes.

Ohio State had the edge in strength of schedule (29 to 40), Strength of Record (2 to 5) and Game Control (5 to 37), and also had an edge in another important category -- losses. Folks who say losses don't matter -- they do. Maybe not as much as wins, but they do matter. Penn State had the same number of wins as the Buckeyes, a league title and a head to head win, but also had two losses. The committee grouped all of the one-loss teams together for comparison, and put them in a tier above the two loss teams.

In 2015, there was one unbeaten -- Clemson -- and five one-loss Power 5 teams -- Alabama, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Iowa and Ohio State. Michigan State beat OSU in the regular season, and knocked off Iowa for the Big Ten crown, so that one was pretty easy.

Only 2014 provides a quibble, and even that one is easily solved. Florida State was unbeaten and in, and Alabama and Oregon made it as league champions. That left Ohio State, Baylor and TCU as remaining one-loss teams, and the Buckeyes, by virtue of a  B1G title game win over Wisconsin, was a conference champion -- something the Big 12 didn't have, as it declared Baylor and TCU co-champs, failing to give the committee one champion to compare to the others. A case can be made that, by declaring both teams as Big 12 champs, TCU was eliminated because it lost to Baylor straight up. Baylor's SOS of 57 was the lowest of any of the one-loss teams, so choosing Ohio State instead wasn't wacky.

It is evident that the committee, while trying to stay true to picking the four best teams, has contradicted itself a bit. Most of the analytics would have taken Baylor and/or TCU ahead of the Buckeyes in 2014, so that lack of a true conference champion proved to be the sticking point. Pointing to Penn State last year and saying the committee didn't value championships as much isn't the same argument because, again, the Nittany Lions had two losses to Ohio State's one.

One other reason to keep it at four is expense to the fans.

As it currently stands, fans can attend the semifinals, and then maybe find a way to get to the finals. With another layer of games, it would be nearly impossible to attend all three rounds, and that's pretty important. Doing things that keep true fans away is not a good thing.

While I am against eight teams, I fully expect it to happen at some point, though not in the immediate future. It won't be the end of the world by any means.

But it will make the CFP just a bit less special.

Paring Things Down
There are currently eight unbeatens, but that number will shrink due to regular season contests (USF/UCF) and possible league title games (Penn State/Wisconsin, Alabama-Georgia). So at most, we will end up with five unbeatens -- though more likely one or two.

There are also a baker's dozen one-loss teams, so the race to the CFP finish line is no doubt going to be an exciting one.

A victory by UMass over Georgia Southern gave the Minutemen their first win of the season, and reduced the number of winless squads to just three -- Baylor, UTEP and the aforementioned Georgia Southern.

Wonder what is more likely to happen -- more unbeateans, or more winless?

Sunday Morning Tally -- Oct. 22

TOP GAMES
(19) Michigan at (2) Penn State (-9.5)
Pick -- Penn State 24-20; Score -- Penn State 42-13 (SU W/ATS L)

(13) USC at (11) Notre Dame (-3.5) 
Pick -- Notre Dame 27-21; Score -- Notre Dame 49-14 (SU/ATS W)

(20) UCF at Navy (+7.5)
Pick -- UCF 34-30; Score -- UCF 31-21 (SU W/ATS L)

OTHER GAMES
Iowa at Northwestern (+1)
Pick -- Iowa 24-21; Score -- Northwestern 17-10 (SU/ATS L)

Maryland at (5) Wisconsin (-24)
Pick -- Wisconsin 45-13; Score -- Wisconsin 38-13 (SU/ATS W)

Iowa State at Texas Tech (-7)
Pick -- Texas Tech 44-33; Score -- Iowa State 31-13 (SU/ATS L)

(10) Oklahoma State at Texas (+7)
Pick -- Oklahoma State 48-31; Score -- Oklahoma State 13-10 (SU W/ATS L)

Syracuse at (8) Miami (-17.5)
Pick -- Miami 38-23; Score -- Miami 27-19 (SU/ATS W)

Arizona State at Utah (-10)
Pick -- Utah 35-20; Score -- Arizona State 30-10 (SU/ATS L)

Indiana at (18) Michigan State (-6.5)
Pick -- Michigan State 31-21; Score -- Michigan State 17-9 (SU/ATS W)

Tennessee at (1) Alabama (-36)
Pick -- Alabama 48-14; Score -- Alabama 45-7 (SU W/ATS L)

Kentucky at Mississippi State (-13)
Pick -- Mississippi State 36-28; Score -- Mississippi State 45-7 (SU W/ATS L)

Oregon at UCLA (-6)
Pick -- Oregon 41-34; Score -- UCLA 31-14 (SU/ATS L)

(9) Oklahoma at Kansas State (+14.5)
Pick -- Oklahoma 45-24; Score -- Oklahoma 42-35 (SU W/ATS L)

(24) LSU at Ole Miss (+7)
Pick -- LSU 30-16; Score -- LSU 40-24 (SU/ATS W)

Wake Forest at Georgia Tech (-4.5)
Pick --Wake Forest 28-26; Score -- Georgia Tech 38-24 (SU/ATS L)
 
Arizona at Cal (+3)
Pick -- Arizona 38-28; Score -- Arizona 45-44 (SU W/ATS L)

Wyoming at Boise State (-14)
Pick -- Boise State 31-23; Score -- Boise State 24-14 (SU/ATS W)

Fresno State at San Diego State (-7.5)
Pick -- Fresno State 34-31; Score -- Fresno State 27-3 (SU/ATS W)

Colorado at (15) Washington State (-10)
Pick -- Washington State 48-21; Score -- Washington State 28-0 (SU/ATS W)

2017 RECORD
SU -- Week 15-5, Season 157-48 (76.6%); ATS -- Week 8-12, Season 113-90-2 (55.6%)

By The Numbers -- Oct. 21

TOP GAMES
(19) Michigan at (2) Penn State
ANALYSIS
Other than last year's 49-10 blowout Michigan victory, this is typically a very close game. Both teams have standout defenses, feasting on their ability to get to the quarterback. Michigan is a bit more aggressive and tricky, while Penn State has been great at forcing turnovers (fourth nationally). The tables turn when it comes to offense, however -- Michigan just has not been explosive, hasn't really been able to challenge teams downfield. Karan Higdon ran for 200 yards last week against Indiana, so maybe the Wolverines have found something in the ground game. Penn State has Saquon Barkley in the backfield and tight end Mike Gesecki as an inviting target for QB Trace McSorley. The last two meetings in State College have been decided by a total of 15 points, including a memorable 4 OT contest in 2013. 
Line -- Penn State -9.5; Pick -- Penn State 24-20

(13) USC at (11) Notre Dame
ANALYSIS
The Irish have won three of the last five, and definitely look like a different team this year. The defense has been excellent, allowing just one rushing touchdown, and the offense has been plowing over foes with a run game that's fifth in the country. Why Josh Adams doesn't get more pub is a mystery, because the kid can play. USC QB Sam Darnold will need to bring his laser focus to the game, and cut down on turnovers -- his nine picks match his total from all of last season. Both teams are still squarely in the hunt for a CFP berth, so this one has all the makings of a classic. 
Line -- Notre Dame -3.5 ; Pick -- Notre Dame 27-21

(20) UCF at Navy
ANALYSIS
Scott Frost's UCF squad has grabbed headlines with blowout victories over Maryland and Memphis, two teams which at the time were highly thought of. McKenzie Milton has been superb at QB for UCF, throwing just two picks to 15 TD passes. Navy is coming off a three point loss to Memphis in which it turned the football over five times. That's not going to work against UCF, which is excellent on offense and very good on defense. UCF will have to be ready for Navy's multi-pronged option, led by QB Zach Abey (second in the nation in rushing). This is the first time the teams have met.
Line -- UCF -7.5; Pick -- UCF 34-30

OTHER GAMES
Iowa at Northwestern -- The Hawkeyes have been right there with two of the better teams in the league, losing by a touchdown to Michigan State and by two points to Penn State, on a last second touchdown pass. Northwestern has run hot and cold, mainly because QB Clayton Thorson and RB Justin Jackson have not had the seasons expected of them. The Hawkeyes defense has been solid if not spectacular, limiting foes to just over 32 percent on third down conversions. This should be a good old fashioned Big Ten defensive battle.
Line -- Iowa -1; Pick -- Iowa 24-21

Maryland at (5) Wisconsin -- It's probably not a good thing that Maryland's rush defense is ranked in the 80s nationally, especially when the Terps are facing uber freshman Jonathan Taylor -- right? Taylor has three games with over 200 yards, including back to back against Nebraska and Purdue the last two weekends. He should be able to find plenty of room against the Terrapins, who are still experiencing offensive issues due to quarterback injuries. The Badgers have won five straight at home, but are just 1-3-2 ATS in last six at Camp Randall. 
Line -- Wisconsin -24; Pick -- Wisconsin 45-13

Iowa State at Texas Tech -- The Cyclones looked pretty good last week with Kyle Kempt taking over at quarterback from Jacob Park, who left the team for personal reasons. Kempt didn't make mistakes and ISU rolled over Kansas. Look for coach Matt Campbell to put Kempt in position to succeed, and to hand off a lot to RB David Montgomery. Tech's Nic Shimonek has been one of the less heralded QBs in the nation this season, which is a shame because he's been one of the best (18 TD-4 INT). ISU put up 66 on the Red Raiders last season, which hasn't been forgotten. Tech has won four of the last five meetings and is one of the best in America at forcing turnovers. 
Line -- Texas Tech -7; Pick -- Texas Tech 44-33

(10) Oklahoma State at Texas -- The Cowboys sport the nation's top offense, and while the Longhorns have given up a ton of yardage to some pretty prolific offenses -- USC (468 yards) and Oklahoma (518) -- they have managed to stay in the game. Freshman Sam Ehlinger has gotten more comfortable under center for Texas, and the defense has been tough up front. Oklahoma State is down three offensive linemen, so don't surprised if Texas gets some push on QB Mason Rudolph. The senior has been lights out all season, averaging 11.6 yards per attempt and having a bevy of targets at his disposal. Texas' 108th ranked pass defense will be tested heavily. The Cowboys have won six of their last eight road games, and have won five of the last seven meetings with UT.  
Line -- Oklahoma State -7; Pick -- Oklahoma State 48-31

Syracuse at (8) Miami -- Both teams needed a little magic last time out, Syracuse getting it late in an upset win over Clemson and Miami converting a fourth down and kicking a game winning field goal over Georgia Tech. Syracuse has put it together offensively, with Eric Dungey adeptly running the ship at QB and Steve Ishmael ranking second in the country in receptions. Miami is showing flashes of being The U once again, with athletic, fast players on defense and a big-play mentality on offense. The Canes have won seven of the last nine meetings. 
Line -- Miami -17.5; Pick -- Miami 38-23

Arizona State at Utah
The Sun Devils may be in for a letdown after last weekend's shocking upset of Washington, while Utah is licking its wounds after falling by a single point to USC. This one will come down to how well ASU can defend Utah's passing attack -- the Utes want to run the ball and play physical, but the Sun Devils allow almost 270 yards through the air. That has to be inviting to QB Troy Williams. Utah has won the last two after dropping 11 straight to the Sun Devils. 
Line -- Utah -10; Pick -- Utah 35-20

Indiana at (18) Michigan State -- The Hoosiers have played well at times, taking Michigan to overtime last week, beating Virginia and confusing Ohio State for a half. The problem is a defense that allows far too many big plays and which really struggles against the run. That's bad news against a Spartans team that runs the ball nearly 43 times per game. Sparty has improved greatly on defense, and will want to make amends for last year's loss to Indiana. MSU has won four of the last five meetings. 
Line -- Michigan State -6.5; Pick -- Michigan State 31-21

Tennessee at (1) Alabama -- Many in Vol Nation wonder why the powers that be haven't just gotten it over with, and let Butch Jones go. It's pretty obvious Tennessee is foundering as a program, and meeting the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa is not the way to reverse fortunes. The Vols have simply not been able to put the ball in the end zone lately, and that spells disaster against a Bama team that allows just 10.1 points per game. Alabama has won 10 meetings in a row against UT. 
Line -- Alabama -36; Pick -- Alabama 48-14

Kentucky at Mississippi State -- The Wildcats are a Florida Hail Mary touchdown away from being unbeaten while the Bulldogs have dropped two of their last three. Kentucky has struggled to score points for much of the season, and that could be an issue against an MSU defense that allows less than 20 points per game. Nick Fitzgerald is one of the best dual threat quarterbacks in the country, but may have to pass a bit more than usual against a Kentucky D that allows only 97 yards per game on the ground. The records say Kentucky is the better team, but the feeling is that Mississippi State may be ready to put it all together. Kentucky is just 2-13 vs the SEC West since 2010. 
Line -- Mississippi State -13; Pick -- Mississippi State 36-28

Oregon at UCLA -- Many were surprised by the Bruins getting blown out at Arizona last weekend, but given the state of UCLA's defense, especially against the run (129th nationally), it probably should not have been a shock. Now Royce Freeman and the Ducks come to town, and you have to think it will be more pounding of the rock against a UCLA squad that looks undisciplined and confused. Josh Rosen will put up numbers against a shaky Oregon pass defense, but it might not be enough for a Bruins team that looks to be slowly circling the drain. Oregon has won six in a row over UCLA, scoring 42 points in each of the last two contests. 
Line -- UCLA -6; Pick -- Oregon 41-34

(9) Oklahoma at Kansas State -- Whether or not Jesse Ertz plays for Kansas State, the offense just hasn't been very good. It's too one dimensional, throwing for less than 200 yards per game, and when you rely on a the run against a Sooners team that's pretty good at stopping it, you're asking for trouble. Baker Mayfield should be licking his chops as KSU comes in allowing nearly 240 yards per game through the air. Oklahoma has lacked a consistent running game most of the year, but it may not matter as it will put the pressure on from the outset.
Line -- Oklahoma -14.5; Pick -- Oklahoma 45-24

(24) LSU at Ole Miss -- The Tigers are good again, folks -- well, sort of -- and now Coach O wants to take on his former employer, about whom he has said plenty -- very little of it good. LSU is humming right now, updating its offense to the 2000s, and getting the defense back to its nasty attitude. Ole Miss has problems running the football so will want to look to the air, but LSU ranks in the top 15 against the pass, so that could be a futile effort. Ole Miss did manage a breakout last weekend, scoring 57 points against what was believed to be a solid Vandy defense. Shea Patterson is an up and coming quarterback, but just doesn't have enough help around him at the moment. Five of the last seven games in this series have been decided by seven points or less, and the Rebels have won two straight at home over LSU. 
Line -- LSU -7; Pick -- LSU 30-16

Wake Forest at Georgia Tech -- This will be a real test for a Wake defense that allows just 3.5 yards per carry and just four rushing touchdowns. You wonder how Georgia Tech feels after basically blowing last week's game against Miami, especially with Clemson up next. This could be a crucial, crucial game for the Yellow Jackets, who will need to be better against the pass than they have been if they hope to stop Wake QB John Wolford -- who has 8 TDs to just 1 INT. Georgia Tech will do its usual control the clock thing, but it needs to finish. Tech has won 10 of the last 13 meetings, but the teams haven't played since 2010. 
Line -- Georgia Tech -4.5; Pick --Wake Forest 28-26
 
Arizona at Cal -- Could this really be happening? Could Rich Rodriguez really be putting together a solid coaching job? The answer is yes, especially since the Wildcats have won three of their last four, knocking off Colorado and UCLA with a precision ground attack. QB Khalil Tate has been nothing short of miraculous, rushing for 643 yards and six scores in basically two games. Cal was able to throttle a high-powered Washington State attack and has shown defensive improvement under rookie coach Justin Wilcox. Cal has won just five of the last 14 meetings, losing three straight by a total of 10 points. The winner of this one gets to the edge of bowl eligibility. 
Line -- Arizona -3; Pick -- Arizona 38-28

Wyoming at Boise State -- The Broncos lost to the Cowboys for the first time last year, so that will be in the forefront of their through processes. Wyoming has been a huge disappointment after being seen as a darkhorse Mountain West pick, barely getting by Utah State a week ago and playing to overtime with Hawaii. Boise has picked it up after losing two of three, blasting San Diego State last weekend. Boise hasn't played great at home this year, but it may be ready to show that it isn't willing to cede MWC supremacy just yet. 
Line -- Boise State -14; Pick -- Boise State 31-23

Fresno State at San Diego State -- After facing Alabama and Washington State in consecutive weeks, Fresno has put together a nice little run of three straight victories, including a 38-0 demolition of New Mexico last weekend. Marcus McMaryion has been solid at QB, throwing just one pick all season, and the Bulldogs have been nails against the run, allowing only 107 yards per contest. That could be a challenge for Rashaad Penny, who was limited to just 53 rushing yards last week against Boise State. Christian Chapman may need to shoulder more of the load against a Fresno team that has been susceptible to big plays through the air.  
Line -- San Diego State -7.5; Pick -- Fresno State 34-31

Colorado at (15) Washington State -- Do you think Mike Leach put his team through a bit of hell this week in practice? He was livid after the Cougars listless performance against Cal, and he will want to take it out on a Buffs squad struggling to find consistency. Colorado squeaked by Oregon State last week, ending a three-game skid, but has not looked smooth at all this year. Wazzu had been running on all cylinders before the Cal haymaker, and you can bet Luke Falk will want to redeem himself after tossing five interceptions against the Bears. Colorado is 75th against the pass and allows nearly eight yards per attempt, but has won two of the last three contests.
Line -- Washington State -10; Pick -- Washington State 48-21

2017 RECORD
SU -- Week (TH/F) 6-0, Season 142-43; ATS -- Week 3-3, Season 105-78-2

No. 20 UCF Gets Up Close Look At Navy's Option

There aren't too many places where the head coach would be running the scout team offense to prepare his team for an upcoming game.

But that's precisely what Central Florida coach Scott Frost has done in practice this week, preparing his team to take on Navy Saturday afternoon in Annapolis, Md., in a crucial American Athletic Conference game. The Knights (5-0, 3-0) are ranked 20th in the nation, something that has happened just twice before, and possess one of the most explosive offenses in the country. UCF leads the nation at 50.4 points per game, ranks fifth in total offense and is one of just three teams averaging over eight yards per play.

With only six seasons of nine wins or more since ascending to the FBS level in 1996, UCF is making a name for itself and venturing into uncharted territory. The Knights will be facing a unique attack in Navy's triple option, which is why Frost -- an option quarterback in his playing days at Nebraska -- was under center in practice.

The zero in the loss column makes UCF a target, and Frost knows that Navy (5-1, 3-1) will be ready to go, especially after losing its first game of the season last week against Memphis. UCF has never opened the season with six straight victories.

UCF's McKenzie Milton has been one of the best QBs in the country (Reinhold Matay/USAToday)

"You see teams around the country have letdowns once in a while," Frost said. "You saw a few last week. Our guys came out ready to play Saturday and I think that's a good sign. We know the challenge we have ahead of us right now. This is one of the best teams in the league and we're playing them on the road. Our guys will be locked in ready to play. We'll see if that's good enough to win. Really, the games you're supposed to win are the ones you worry about it a little bit. This is just another opportunity for us to attack and try to beat a good team in the league."

UCF ranks in the top 10 in passing offense, fueled by the stellar play of sophomore McKenzie Milton. A lightly regarded recruit from Hawaii, Milton has thrown 15 touchdowns to just two interceptions this season, and his 11.6 yards per attempt ranks second in the country. Milton, who started 10 games as a freshman, is not afraid to take shots downfield. Most go to Tre'Quan Smith, who averages 21.5 yards per catch on 20 grabs, with seven touchdowns. Jordin Akins is no slouch on the other side, averaging 19.4 yards per catch with three scores.

The Knights aren't one-dimensional offensively, either, ranking 22nd in rushing, averaging 5.8 yards per rush and scoring 16 touchdowns.

“We recognize this will be a tough challenge because we know how good Memphis is and this team beat Memphis,” Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo told reporters Monday. “We’re going to have our hands full stopping them and we’re going to have our hands full moving the ball. They’re undefeated for a reason.”

UCF is also top 30 in total defense, including allowing just 3.7 yards per rush and four touchdowns.

The Knights will be tested by Navy's relentless option attack, led by quarterback Zach Abey. The Middies lead the country in rushing yards per game, average nearly 6.2 yards per carry and have 23 touchdowns. Abey is second nationally in rushing, averaging 169.3 yards per game with 12 touchdowns. Slotback Malcolm Perry has the nation's highest yards per carry, 11.5, with three touchdowns, and Chris High and Darryl Bonner are both valuable runners, as well.

Navy is 10th nationally in third down conversions, and Frost knows that keeping the Middies from rolling up first downs will be paramount in any victory.

"Their third downs are different than most people's third downs," Frost explained. "They get a lot of third-and-shorts because you don't see a lot of negative plays from them. First and second downs are vital to make sure you're in the type of third down to where you can get a stop. They go for it on fourth down more than anybody, including us. A lot of times you have to play four downs against them. Our defense is excited. This is a different brand a football, a challenge they haven't seen in a while."

Navy QB Zach Abey is second in the nation in rushing (USAToday)

Navy will need to be sound on defense, something that has eluded the Middies for much of the season. Navy has allowed 21 or more points in all but one game this year, and is 87th against the pass.

That could spell trouble for Navy, as could hanging on to the football. The Middies have turned the ball over six times in the last three games, including three fumbles against Memphis. It was the most turnovers by a Navy team since 2002 when it had six against Boston College in 2002. 

“We’re not going to beat anybody with five turnovers. I mean, you lose five drives,” Niumatalolo said after the game. “I can’t remember the last time we had five turnovers. I’m surprised we were still in the game.”

This will be UCF first glimpse of the triple option this season, though not intentionally. A mid-September game against Georgia Tech was cancelled due to Hurricane Irma, and the Yellow Jackets have one of the most potent option attacks anywhere.

Not seeing it has made having a good week of practice more important this week, and the players enjoyed seeing their coach running around with the football.

"It's kind of exciting to see him running around," UCF senior linebacker Shaquem Griffin said after Monday morning's practice. "You're not going to get a better look than having Coach Frost in there. He knows what we will see from Navy."

For his part, Frost was more than happy to assume scout team quarterback duties.

"I love option football," Frost said. "I lived it. I feel like option quarterbacks now are kind of like giant pandas. They only exist in zoos and military academies now."

While practice has been a lot of fun this week, UCF knows that Navy is going to be in a lather because of last weekend's loss. The Knights won't be able to take plays off.

"It's their homecoming. It's at their place. I'm kind of excited to see it," Frost said. "I have a lot of respect for what the Naval Academy is, what they stand for and how their kids play. They beat people because they play harder and they're smarter. I want our guys to play harder than them and be smarter. That's a challenge for us. We're going to have to prepare for it this week.

"I'm anxious to see it. I'm excited to go up there and see the pageantry of the academy. I know it's their homecoming so it's going to be more special. We're not going to treat it any different than any other game. We'll have the ability to go with a silent count if we need to. Other than that, most of our communication is non-verbal anyway. I'm looking forward to seeing that place and what it looks like. We're excited to play a football game."