Saturday Morning Take Five

College Football Week 1 Picks

 Hello, friends. It's Saturday morning, which means kickoff for college football is just hours (or minutes, depending on when you are reading this) away.

 Our Saturday routine will be to make picks of the top five games of the weekend -- hence, the nifty Take Five name -- via video, with the games noted below. We will also predict remaining top 25 games, as well as big matchups outside of the top 25. We will be making the selections against the pointspread, though we will say this is for informational purposes only, as we know that betting on games is a bad, bad thing.

 There are only four games this weekend that match FBS teams, so we will skip the Brigham Young-Portland State contest.

 We will present some pointspread figures here, but the picks will be made in the video above.

 Oregon State at Colorado State (-4) --Oregon State is 26-17 as an away dog L/10 years, but just 5-9 L/3. Oregon State has covered three of last four road openers as a dog. CSU is 9-4 ATS at home the last three seasons, including 4-0-1 in the last five (including a 51 point spread vs. Savannah State, CSU won 65-13). The Rams are also a nifty 5-2 as home faves under third-year coach Mike Bobo.

Hawai'i at UMass (-2) -- UH is 21-23 as an away dog L/10 years, but 3-2 in road openers the last five seasons. UMass has been a home favorite just nine times since the move to FBS, going 5-4 ATS, and was not a favorite in a single game in 2016. The Minutemen are 12-16 ATS in non-conference games, and lost by six on the road against Hawai'i last year as a seven-point dog. UMass is 19-17 ATS three years into Mark Whipple's second stint as head coach.

South Florida at San Jose State (+22) -- USF is just 10-17 as a road favorite the last 10 seasons, but 5-3 in that role the last three years. The Bulls have been favored by 20+ points in their last five season openers, going 2-3, and losing outright on the road against McNeese State in 2013. The Spartans are 1-3 ATS their last four vs. AAC teams, but 24-20 in non-league contests ATS the last 10 years. SJSU is 2-3 L3Y as double digit home dogs.

Stanford vs. Rice (+30.5) -- Stanford is 6-1-2 ATS in neutral site games, including 3-0-1 the L3Y. The Cardinal are just 2-2 as a favorite of 30 points or more the last five seasons, including failing to cover vs. Rice at home last year. Rice is 4-3 in neutral site contests, but has played just one in the last three seasons. The Owls are 7-3-3 the L3Y vs. non-conference teams, and 3-2 in games where they were underdogs of at least 30 points in that span.

College Football 2017 -- Week 1 By The Numbers

 Let Sports Illustrated and Fox Sports and whoever else tell you that Sept. 2 is week one of college football.

 We know the REAL truth -- this weekend, even with a limited slate of games -- is the actual kickoff of the 2017 college football season. And a glorious thing it is.

 Every Friday during the season, we will delve into the best matchups and provide some entertaining, possibly relevant, numbers and facts. Things we find interesting about the matchup, which may or may not have any bearing on the outcome. All games are Aug. 26th.

 Oregon State at Colorado State, 2:30 pm
 Oregon State is just 21-36 on the road the last 10 seasons, but has gone 20-15 in non-conference games; Beavers coach Gary Andersen is 1-1 vs. CSU from his time as head coach of Utah State. OSU is just the fourth Power 5 school to visit Fort Collins since 2004; Colorado State is 20-3 in home openers, and is working on a streak of four straight; CSU is 13-4 at home the last three seasons, but just 8-6 against non-league competition; The Rams offense has allowed just 30 sacks total over the last two seasons.

 Portland State at Brigham Young, 3 pm
 Portland State lost its FBS games last year, to San Jose State and Washington, by an average of 35 ppg; Neil Lomax is probably the most famous player from PSU, and notable head coaches include Mouse Davis, Pokey Allen and Jerry Glanville; Brigham Young is 9-0 vs. FCS programs since 2005, winning by an average of 42 ppg; The Cougars are 12-4 in home openers since 2000, with just one game coming against an FCS team

 Hawai'i at UMass, 6 pm
Hawai'i is coming off a seven-win season, which included a bowl game win over Middle Tennessee; the Rainbow Warriors are just 4-18 in their last 22 road openers, and have dropped six straight by an average of 23 ppg; Hawai'i's 58.7 completion percentage was its highest since 2011 (60.0); UMass has not had a winning season since transitioning to FBS in 2011, with its best win total -- three games -- coming in 2014 and 2015. UMass was -10 in turnovers last season; Dick MacPherson is among the men who have prowled the sidelines in Amherst, winning 45 games in seven seasons.

 South Florida at San Jose State, 7:30 pm
 USF is 8-12 in road openers, and its victory over Syracuse last year snapped a three-game skein; Charlie Strong is just the fourth head coach in school history, following Jim Leavitt, Skip Holtz and Willie Taggart. Only Holtz had a winning record in year one (8-5); The Bulls are +19 in turnovers the past two seasons; USF's 43.8 ppg last year was a school record; San Jose State is 13-2 in its last 15 home openers, but is 6-12 the last four years in non-league action; SJSU allowed 40 or more points six times last season and gave up an average of 5.5 ypc on the ground.

 Stanford vs. Rice, 10 pm (Sydney, Australia) 
The Cardinal have won just twice in six meetings with the Owls, including 23-13 in the last meeting (1963); Stanford is 7-3 in its last 10 road openers, but its last two losses came as a ranked team; Stanford's 26.3 ppg last year were the lowest of the David Shaw era (six seasons), and the 34 sacks allowed was the highest total in that span; Rice has one of the lowest enrollments in all of FBS (6,628); The Owls are 0-26 since 1998 vs. ranked teams, their last win coming in 1997 over No. 21 BYU; Rice is -19 in turnovers the past two seasons; Rice allowed fewer than 21 points just once all of last season.

CFF 2017 Rankings -- 15-11

Bullish On South Florida In The AAC

Charlie Strong

 When let go by the University of Texas, Charlie Strong wasn't sure what was in his immediate future. He thought he might have to start over, perhaps taking a coordinator position before wading again into the head coaching waters.

 But then a hurricane of sorts took place in Tampa, as Willie Taggart moved West to Oregon, leaving a vacancy in a program that many have labeled a "sleeping giant." The Bulls finished 11-2 last year (7-1 in league play) and had more talent on hand than at any time in history, but had no coach.

 Enter Strong.

 After surveying the landscape, Strong returned to the state where he took his first assistant coaching job, and immediately felt like he was "home."

 A team rife with experience and talent has Strong sitting in the catbird seat, as the choice to win the American Athletic Conference Eastern Divison, and, ultimately, the league title. That would be a reversal of fortune from last year, when the Bulls missed out on the league title game and instead watched Temple take the crown.

 "We didn't win the conference last year," Strong said. "We have something to shoot for, that carrot is dangling in front of us."

         Quinton Flowers

 The Bulls have a leg up on the competition thanks in large part to quarterback Quinton Flowers, a versatile sort who passed for over 2,800 yards with 24 touchdown passes, and added another 1,530 yards and 18 scores on the ground. He should repeat as offensive player of the year and is a darkhorse in the Heisman Trophy race.

 "We’ve got to win today,” said Strong. “It’s important for the players to realize they haven’t won anything this year.

 “We’re a big-time program, so we have to carry ourselves like a big-time program. We’ve got to give them a product that they are happy with and pleased with.”

 USF is a prohibitive favorite in the East, but Temple (10-4, 7-1) and Central Florida (6-7, 4-4) will make it work for division supremacy. The Owls will once again be defense oriented, while the Knights should continuing ascending behind a veteran stop unit and an offense that has nowhere to go but up (113th nationally in 2016).

 In the West, Memphis gets the nod thanks to senior quarterback Riley Ferguson, who threw for 3,698 yards and a school-record 32 TDs. The Tigers (8-5, 5-3) have experience on offense, including wideout Anthony Miller, but will need to get better on defense if they want to challenge for the league title.

 Houston (9-4, 5-3), Tulsa (10-3, 6-2) and Navy (9-5, 7-1) will all be in the mix, and could each win the league with the right set of circumstances. Houston gets the services of former Texas A&M quarterback Kyle Allen, so losing Greg Ward Jr. shouldn't be such a blow. Tulsa has running back D'Angelo Brewer (1,435 yards), while Navy will rely on its typical option-based scheme, piloted by quarterback Zach Abey, who started the final two games of last season after starter Will Worth was injured.

 Being tabbed as a division favorite often puts a bullseye on a team, but it will keep Memphis focused on the big prize.

 “It’s a great compliment, but being the preseason favorite really doesn’t get you anything,” Tigers coach Mike Norvell said. “Our guys, the biggest focus that we’ve had is trying to maximize the opportunities that we have in our preparation so that when we get to the season we’re in the best position to be successful."

 The league had a ton of turnover from last year, with five first-year coaches, four in the East -- Strong, Geoff Collins at Temple, Luke Fickell at Cincinnati and Randy Edsall at UConn, who is beginning his second stint in Storrs, having led the program from 1999-2010. Houston bumped offensive coordinator Major Applewhite up to head coach after Tom Herman left to take over Texas.


 AAC PREDICTIONS
        EAST
 1. South Florida
 2. Temple
 3. UCF
 4. East Carolina
 5. Cincinnati
 6. Connecticut

            WEST
 1. Memphis
 2. Houston
 3. Tulsa
 4. Navy
 5. SMU
 6. Tulane 

ALL-AAC
OFFENSE
QB Quinton Flowers/South Florida
RB D'Angelo Brewer/Tulsa
RB Braeden West/SMU
WR Anthony Miller/Memphis
WR Jimmy Williams/East Carolina
WR Courtland Sutton/SMU
OT Evan Pigg/Tulsa
OT John Leglue/Tulane
OG Evan Martin/Navy
OG Tyler Bowling/Tulsa
  C  Chandler Miller/Tulsa

DEFENSE
DE Justin Lawler/SMU
DE Jamiyus Pittman/UCF
DT Ed Oliver/Houston
DT Cortez Broughton/Cincinnati
LB Genard Avery/Memphis
LB Micah Thomas/Navy
LB Shaquem Griffin/UCF
CB Parry Nickerson/Tulane
CB Jamar Summers/Connecticut
  S  Sean Chandler/Temple
  S  Garrett Davis/Houston

SPECIALISTS
  K Andrew Gantz/Cincinnati
  P Spencer Smith/Memphis
KR Sherman Badie/Tulane
PR D'Ernest Johnson/South Florida

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME South Florida over Memphis
OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR -- Quinton Flowers
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR -- Ed Oliver
COACH OF THE YEAR -- Mike Norvell/Memphis
NEWCOMER OF THE YEAR -- RB Cordarrian Richardson/UCF