Putting A Bow On The 2019 Season

Man, that was fun. And if people are telling the truth, it was also unexpected.

Only the most die-hard LSU fan would have said at the beginning of the season that the Tigers would not only contend for a national title, but win one -- and in the process tear down all previous offensive records and have a generational season from its senior quarterback.

It became apparent pretty early that these Tigers weren't paper, and only a couple of close shaves against Auburn and Alabama lessened confidence. And then only by a little bit. LSU was focused, determined and together, all components that are needed to win a national title. Oh, and they have a coach that loves not only them, but the entire state of Louisiana. Ed Orgeron is the face (and voice) of the program, a cajun boy making the homefolks proud. So he washed out at Ole Miss, and wasn't given much consideration at USC? He's in the place he always wanted to be, leading the team he loves to the top of the college football mountain. He's as lovable as Dabo Swinney is annoying, though you have to wonder if that changes should LSU become the sport's latest dynasty.

The Tigers have quite a bit returning in 2020, though the defense could be impacted by a few juniors departing -- Patrick Queen, Jacob Phillips, Michael Divinity -- should they decide to do so. That would make repeating more difficult, but we already know that it's harder to stay at the top than it is to get there. The work begins now, and those that rest will get left behind.

Loose Ends

• The time has more than arrived for a discussion about the targeting rule. We saw two game-changing ejections in the CFP -- Shaun Wade from Ohio State and James Skalski from Clemson -- that should have only been 15-yard penalties. By letter of the law both of the calls were correct, but to toss guys for being unlucky and a little careless versus malicious seems far too punitive. There are already penalties with degrees -- running into the kicker vs roughing, defensive holding vs pass interference. Hell, we had a five yard face mask vs 15 yards not that long ago. So how hard would it be to implement Targeting 1, which would simply be a 15-yard penalty and would apply to hits that fit the definition but lacked specific components -- launching, contact to the head -- and Targeting 2, which would satisfy every definition of the rule -- launch, crown of helmet, contact to the head and merit an ejection? This needs to be done so that big-time players aren't tossed from big-time games.
• Games have gotten too long, and that needs to be fixed. Two suggestions -- put a cap on replay review length, say 90 seconds to two minutes. If you can't figure it out by then, keep the call on the field. And don't stop the clock for first downs except in the final two minutes of a quarter or half. 
• Schedule equity. Whether it's nine games (which I would prefer) or eight, all Power 5 leagues should play the same amount of conference games. It's silly for one league to be able to add a cupcake late in the season while others are embroiled in league wars. My thought would be nine games, along with three non-conference, two of which have to be against other Power 5 teams. Schools won't do this because the CFP committee has shown it has no problem with teams who schedule FCS squads but run the table. In fact, they give them preference over one loss teams that play good non-league schedules. Until the committee begins penalizing teams for poor scheduling this will continue. But it would be nice if leagues would at least talk about it.
• The transfer portal has become almost comical, and while I am still in favor of players being able to seek out better situations, there need to be some hard and fast rules. There are dates for high schoolers to sign with a school, dates for underclassmen to declare for the NFL Draft -- why not dates for transfers? Let's say you're at School A, you get hurt and likely aren't getting your job back. Or a new coach comes in and changes the scheme. Why should you be stuck? A player would be able to announce a transfer the day that classes at his current school ends -- provided he is in good academic standing and has the proper amount of credits to be on course for graduation. He could choose another school up to the time they start classes -- so if the player has finished his studies in December and wants to be around for spring ball, he'll have to work quickly. If it isn't quite as pressing, he can wait until spring term begins, which is April for most schools. Same for spring -- if a player feels he is beaten out and won't get to play, he can leave and pick another school, provided he is there in time for classes to begin in the summer. Coaches would no doubt like that as it would help them plan their rosters better, and it would give the players a bit more clarity if they knew there were specific dates they had to meet.
• While neither team will be anywhere near the top of the SEC West, it should be fun to watch Ole Miss and Mississippi State under the guidance of Lane Kiffin and Mike Leach. Think the Egg Bowl will be just a little bit of fun. Kiffin has shown he can recruit and is a pretty solid playcaller, but he also like being bigger than the program. Leach will spread everyone out, which will bring curses from opposing coaches, have an occasional season of contending for the division and making a bowl game just about every year. And his press conferences will be must attend. 

It's never too early to look ahead to next season, so while I am not putting together a top 25 -- it's simply done to gain attention and debate, there is no real substance to it. We don't know which players are leaving, which freshmen may or may not be eligible, who gets hurt in spring or fall camp -- I will put together a list of teams that can contend for a playoff spot next year. Obviously this is very early, and some teams will fall off of this list and new teams will jump on. This is largely based on returning talent and schedule for next season.

In alphabetical order they are:
Alabama
California
Clemson
Florida
Georgia
LSU
Minnesota
Notre Dame 
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Oregon
Penn State
USC
Virginia Tech

Group of Five teams to watch:
Appalachian State
Arkansas State
Boise State
Cincinnati
East Carolina
Fresno State
Kent State
Marshall
Memphis
Miami Ohio
Navy
San Diego State
Southern Miss
UAB
UCF
Wyoming

CFB Focus National Championship Preview -- LSU vs Clemson

It's finally here.

The 2019 college football season plays its swan song in Bayou Country, at the Mercedes Benz Superdome in New Orleans, and two hungry packs of Tigers will look to etch their name in the history books.

The high-powered offense of top-ranked LSU, which has proven to be mostly unstoppable this season, takes on the defending national champion Clemson, which is playing the underdog card despite winning 29 games in a row. Both squads are filled with talent, and led by quarterbacks who have shown they won't be awed by the big stage.

In Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence we have the top two QBs in FBS when pressured, combining for 33 TDs and just one INT in those situations. Each has been remarkably efficient down the stretch and has come up big when needed, so getting them to flinch could be a huge task.

A win for Clemson would be the third national title in four years, and would cement Dabo Swinney's crew as the most lethal dynasty in the game, as well as its top whiner. The "aw shucks" stuff played well when Clemson was still relatively new, but it has grow beyond tired.

LSU played for the crown in 2011 but hasn't won it since 2007, and a victory would stamp Ed Orgeron as one of the more redemptive coaching stories in recent memory, He wasn't wanted by Ole Miss or USC, and had some anxious moments in Baton Rouge, too. But now Coach Eaux has a chance to elevate into the upper tier of college football by winning the whole thing.

The stage is set for another down to the wire contest, and there is only one certainty -- the Tigers will finish the night as champions.

CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP (New Orleans)
(1) LSU Tigers (14-0) vs (3) Clemson Tigers (14-0)
BETTING NUMBERS: LSU -5.5, TOTAL 68.5

LSU TIGERS
BOWL RECORD: 27-23-1
BOWL RECORD vs Clemson: 2-1
RECORD vs Clemson: 2-1
AP/BCS/CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS:  3 (1958/2003/2007)
JEFF SAGARIN SOS: 7
RUSHING OFFENSE: 4.86 YPC (32ND)
PASSING OFFENSE: 10.7 YPA (6TH)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 7.91 YPP (2ND)
SCORING OFFENSE: 48.9 (1ST)
POINTS PER PLAY: 0.649 (2ND)
POINTS PER POSSESSION: 3.767 (3RD)
THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 50.89 (4TH)
RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 78.57 (5TH)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS: 102 (2ND)
TIMES SACKED PER ATTEMPT: 0.059 (T-61ST)
RUSHING DEFENSE: 3.60 YPC (28TH)
PASSING DEFENSE: 6.4 YPA (T-20TH)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 5.05 YPP (27TH)
SCORING DEFENSE: 21.6 (T-28TH)
POINTS ALLOWED PER PLAY: 0.319 (T-24TH)
POINTS ALLOWED PER POSSESSION: 1.633 (T-17TH)
OPP THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 30.69 (T-9TH)
OPP RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 63.16 (T-84TH)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS ALLOWED: 59 (T-69TH)
SACKS PER ATTEMPT: 0.073 (T-36TH)
TURNOVER MARGIN: +9 (T-13TH)

OFFENSIVE OUTLOOK: Those who haven't been living under a rock know just how lethal LSU's offense has been this season. A lot of it has been the masterful direction by Heisman winning QB Joe Burrow, who gets it done with a clean pocket AND when pressured, sporting the nation's highest grade in both categories according to Pro Football Focus. The Bayou Bengals are top three in scoring, points per play and points per possession and really haven't been slowed down all season. It isn't only Burrow, but the talent around him and the scheme. Joe Brady has been adept at finding mismatches and exploiting them, using the speed of his athletes on quick slants, hitches, crosses and posts. Ja'Marr Chase is the Biletnikoff Award winner and a stud, but Justin Jefferson had four first half touchdowns in the semifinal against Oklahoma. Terrace Marshall is a big target who can run after the catch, and TE Thaddeus Moss has the versatiilty to line up out wide, in the slot or close to the line. If the receivers dont get you, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire will. A powerful, aggressive runner, Edwards-Helaire loves getting the ball at crunch time and plays his best in the biggest games. He had just two carries against Oklahoma but will be used much more here, especially in the passing game. One concern for LSU could be Clemson's relentless pressure. Brent Venables crew has pressured the quarterback on 43 percent of their dropbacks, and has a nation's best 19 percent turnover rate. If Clemson can win that battle and limit LSU's possession it has a really good shot at winning.
DEFENSIVE OUTLOOK: LSU has gotten better on D as it has gotten healthier, and should bring its best unit to the table. LSU is strongest in its linebacker group, which is led by Patrick Queen and Jacob Phillips. Both have the speed to track down running backs as well as an abiilty to defend the pass, so Clemson may need to get creative with its playcalling. A fascinating matchup looms in the secondary as freshman CB Derek Stingley and running mate Kristian Fulton go up against Clemson's Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross, who are both 6-4 and can go up and get jump balls, and may have a physicality edge if LSU tries to press off the line. LSU will need to be on guard for runs by Trevor Lawrence, a facet of his game that really wasn't shown until the Fiesta Bowl. The specter of Travis Etienne in the backfield means that if LSU sells out too much to stop him there could be some running lanes for Lawrence. LSU has not been good when teams have gotten close to the end zone, sitting just 84th in red zone touchdown percentage (63.16). The Bayou Bengals have also given up a decent amount of explosive plays, so it will be interesting to see if Clemson can hit some shots downfield.

CLEMSON TIGERS
BOWL RECORD: 25-20
BOWL RECORD vs LSU: 1-2
RECORD vs LSU: 1-2
AP/BCS/CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS: 3 (1981/2016/2018)
JEFF SAGARIN SOS: 56
RUSHING OFFENSE: 6.41 YPC (1ST)
PASSING OFFENSE: 8.7 YPA (T-12TH)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 7.46 YPP (4TH)
SCORING OFFENSE: 45.3 (4TH)
POINTS PER PLAY: 0.618 (4TH)
POINTS PER POSSESSION: 3.461 (5TH)
THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 46.47 (17TH)
RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 75.38 (9TH)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS: 94 (7TH)
TIMES SACKED PER ATTEMPT: 0.031 (T-5TH)
RUSHING DEFENSE: 3.13 YPC (9TH)
PASSING DEFENSE: 5.5 YPA (1ST)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 4.16 YPP (2ND)
SCORING DEFENSE: 11.5 (1ST)
POINTS ALLOWED PER PLAY: 0.166 (1ST)
POINTS ALLOWED PER POSSESSION: 0.822 (1ST)
OPP THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 31.48 (13TH)
OPP RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 35,71 (2ND)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS ALLOWED: 35 (T-1ST)
SACKS PER ATTEMPT: 0.104 (6TH)
TURNOVER MARGIN: +16 (T-5TH)

OFFENSIVE OUTLOOK: It was pretty obvious to most observers that Ohio State had a talent advantage over Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl, but that wasn't enough to overcome the heart and desire of the Tigers. Lawrence seemed rejuvenated after leaving for a few moments following the targeting penalty by OSU's Shaun Wade, and was nothing short of brilliant in leading Clemson back from a 16-0 deficit. People tout Etienne's speed, but he is a lot more physical than his size shows. He led the nation in forced missed tackles, and is a home run threat whenever he touches the ball Don't be surprised if Clemson lures LSU in with the run game before using Etienne as a weapon in the air attack. Higgins and Ross present size matchup issues for LSU's secondary, which may need to play a bit more nickel than usual. The defense gets the headlines, but the offense has done some heavy lifting of its own, and ranks in the fop five in both points per play and points per possession.
DEFENSIVE OUTLOOK: Venables is a master with time to prepare, but even he may be flummoxed as to how to stop this high-octane LSU attack. There will no doubt be a lot of nickel and dime packages, which would seem to help LSU's running game. But Clemson does have a wild card in Isaiah Simmons, the most versatile defender in college football and a guy who can line up all over the place -- as a standup linebacker, over the slot, out wide in coverage and at a safety position. He never has to come off the field, and adds an athletic dimesion that LSU hasn't seen this season. It's a big advantage being able to keep him in on every defensive package, and he can be a big-time game changer. Tyler Davis is the one pass rusher LSU needs to worry about, as he netted 5.5 sacks and created havoc inside. Clemson's defense is tops in points per play and points per possession, and has been nails in the red zone -- just ask Ohio State. The Buckeyes had to settle for field goals on three occasions in the Fiesta Bowl, and punching any of those in could have made for a different outcome. Clemson's secondary is a veteran unit that likes to get physical -- sometimes too much so. But it will need to do that if it wants to throw LSU's passing attack off balance.

OVERVIEW: This one should be fun, and will be a chess match between LSU OC Brady and Clemson DC Venables, Both have rightly gained reputations as innovators, but it could come down to which unit shows the most toughness. Burrow has been great all year, and Lawrence since mid-October, so you don't worry about the guys handling the football. You do worry about discipline and untimely penalties and turnovers, which always have a hand in shaping the outcome. Neither team is dynamic in special teams, though LSU has excellent specialists in PK Cade York, who hasn't missed inside 40 yards this season, and P Zach Von Rosenberg, who has had just seven punts returned this season and has placed 18 inside the 20. There is something to be said for offense, and LSU has it in spades. It creates mismatches, has an accurate quarterback who thrives in the spotlight and a run game that is efficient enough to keep the chains moving, even if it lacks a consistent big play threat. But there is also something to be admired about a defending champion with the ability to click things into high gear when necessary, Nothing seems to bother Clemson, there is no panic, and Lawrence hasn't lost a game as a collegian. Both signal-callers are extremely tough, so it could be as simple as which one flinches first -- if at all. Defense has been the calling card of a majority of the last 10 national champions, and that edge has to go squarely to Dabo's crew.

Auburn gave the defensive blueprint on how to slow down LSU -- get aggressive up the middle and play sticky coverage on the wideouts, who have less room to operate when in the red zone. Auburn held LSU to a field goal and a turnover on downs (after getting to the Auburn 1), and forced two turnovers when LSU was inside the AU 30. Clemson has better athletes on defense than Auburn, so it may just be able to pull this off. Of course, that was before Burrow really started tearing things up, but the way he's played since November -- a stunning 25-2 TD-INT ratio -- indicates he may just be impervious to the bad game.

Clemson is looking to join Nebraska (1994-97) and Alabama (2009-12) as the only programs to win three national titles in four years, and in a game that lives up to the hype but is a bit lower scoring than a lot of people are forecasting, the experience, will and tenacity of the defending champion comes through.

Clemson 34, LSU 33