Friday, August 24, 2018

Why We Love College Football

College football is back.

Those are words as joyous to many as "it's Christmas!" are to a young child.

Notice the specificity -- COLLEGE FOOTBALL is back.

Not football. College football.

I know there are many out there who have entire weekends consumed by football, and that's fine. On Saturdays they roll with the college action while Sundays are set aside for NFL. That's understandable. The NFL, despite the heavy-handed mismanagement by commish Roger Goodell, is still king of the ratings -- not sure why, but it is.

The players are the best of the best, and seeing legends like Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers play is certainly something to relish.

But what is the NFL really? It's 16 games a week, all look the same, all have basically the same formations and plays. It's really gambling and fantasy football that drive the NFL engine, with followers simultaneously watching Red Zone and looking at their phones for live updates on their "games." They can't be bothered with which NFL team actually won the game -- hell, they probably don't even care, as long as their dude runs for a buck fifty and scores twice.

College football has many elements the NFL is missing -- pageantry, marching bands, idyllic settings, fans going apeshit for their teams, rivalries. You name it, in just about every aspect the college game beats the NFL.

Much of this may depend on where you grow up. For people raised in Columbus or Tuscaloosa or Ann Arbor or South Bend, there is something about being automatically attached to the hometown team. You grow up in the area, maybe your parents went there. You gain familiarity with the programs and traditions and coaches, you feel a part of something. You like the fact that some of the players on the team are from your town, from your state. You feel connected, like they are taking a part of you with them onto the field.

There are the traditions -- Script Ohio, Howard's Rock, Toomer's Corner, Touchdown Jesus, Hotty Toddy, Roll Tide -- the list could go on forever. You don't find too many people driving for a day or more to get to an NFL stadium, but they'll do it five or six times a season to get to their favorite college venue. RVs and tailgates are regular fixtures on college campuses, and fans line the street near the stadium to see their heroes making that walk. Only Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City comes close to replicating a college atmosphere. The settings, as much as anything, make the experience. Fight songs matter, too -- "Fight On," "The Victors," "Anchors Aweigh" and "Rocky Top" just add to the atmosphere. Or, if you're the visitor, add to the frustation if your team is losing.

Even the stadiums have nicknames -- The Swamp, The Shoe, Death Valley (two of those!), Home of the 12th Man, The Big House, The Cock Pit. NFL stadiums are known by their antiseptic corporate sponsorship.

And the rivalries -- Ohio State-Michigan, Alabama-Auburn, USC-Notre Dame, Texas-Oklahoma, Cal-Stanford, Clemson-South Carolina, Harvard-Yale, Lehigh-Lafayette ... every team has that one foe it cannot stand losing to, that one foe against whom victory soothes a lot of ills. Big time stakes, just once a season. It sends hearts racing.

Though Group of Five teams will dispute this, every game in college football has meaning. In the NFL, you lose once, no big deal. Lose twice, no big deal. You could lose seven, even eight times, and still have a shot at the postseason. Not so in college football. Every week is an elimination, as one loss puts you behind the eight ball and a second loss puts you out of the running altogether. Every game matters, every play matters. Think otherwise? Well, how many NFL regular season games do you know that have been named? In college there's "Wide Right" and "Kick Six" and "Catholics vs Convicts," and many more. Hell, a T-shirt was made of a frustrated Michigan fan after his Wolverines lost to Michigan State on a botched punt in the final seconds of the game a couple of years ago. Most of the memorable NFL moments have come in the playoffs.

Every college game has its own flavor. Over here you have one game featuring an Air Raid vs. an option, another with a spread team facing a Pro-Style, a team that goes empty, defenses that utilize more speed than size, that have nickel as their base. You pretty much find 3-4 and 4-3 in the NFL, and the offenses deviate very little, if at all. Oh, maybe there are some RPO principles, but by and large they make the players adapt to the system rather than crafting a system that can fit your players. The diverse offenses and chess matches are a big part of why college football is so appealing.

Conference pride is big, too. Have you ever heard fans chanting "N-F-C" at the Super Bowl, or "A-F-C South" in a matchup between the Colts and Jets? Of course you haven't. Because every team is its own entity. In college, even if you're an Alabama fan you pay attention to Auburn and Georgia and LSU, and don't mind when they knock off a Big 10 or Pac-12 foe. There's something soothing about solidarity.

There are other factors that swing in favor of college football -- coaching personalities, recruiting, defensive players playing offense, singing the alma mater in the end zone after the game, renewing friendships during homecoming, actual mascots (UGA and Mike The Tiger among the best), the fact that the team won't hold the city hostage for a new stadium or threaten to move.

Maybe I am in the minority, but I am seldom wowed after walking into an NFL stadium. There's loud music (usually techno) blaring from the sound system, a stark contrast to the brass of the marching band getting fans fired up before game time. If you don't feel goosebumps upon walking into Notre Dame Stadium or The Horseshoe, don't get amped when hearing "Enter Sandman" at Lane Stadium, don't go wild for the fourth-quarter "Jump Around" in Madison, then you, friend, need some help.

Welcome back, old friend. I've missed you.

Thursday, August 23, 2018

Where Does Ohio State Go From Here?


Well, that was odd.

One of the strangest days in recent Ohio State football history capped one of the strangest months in Ohio State football history, ending with a three-game suspension for Buckeyes coach Urban Meyer.

Depending on whom you talk to, it was either a slap on the wrist or completely undeserved.

As with most things, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.
Urban Meyer (WPLG)

By now everyone knows all of the sordid details of this saga, the back and forth social media journalism rivalries that uncovered nugget after nugget – most having nothing to do with anything, but lapped up just the same.

The investigative committee charged with sorting out this mess was about as thorough as could be expected, especially given the fact they worked under the confines of a self-imposed 14-day deadline. They talked to numerous people, including Meyer, athletic director Gene Smith, former receivers coach Zach Smith, his ex-wife Courtney Smith, as well as examined text messages and emails. Their conclusions were that Meyer did not violate any contractual policies but did mismanage his handling of Zach Smith, allowing him to stay on staff despite numerous red flags.

The result determined by Ohio State was a three-game suspension without pay, which means Meyer won’t be around the team at all until after Sept. 2nd and won’t coach until after TCU and won’t receiver any money until Sept. 16th. That nearly five weeks of salary, or roughly $580,000. I don’t care how much you make, that’s not pocket change. 

There were definitely some troubling things uncovered by the committee – the fact that Meyer’s phone appeared to be devoid of text messages older than a year, not coincidentally around the same time a staffer told him that the phone’s settings could be adjusted to get rid of messages older than one year. The committee could not PROVE that Meyer did anything shady in that aspect, but it does seem odd that it was talked about prior and then shown to have captured messages a year old or newer.

Also troubling was the committee’s determination that “We learned that coach Meyer sometimes had significant memory issues in other situations where he had prior extensive knowledge of events.” The issues were attributed to medication Meyer takes, which sometimes impairs his memory and focus. Even taking the committee at its word, this one seems a bit hard to swallow.

And then there’s Zach Smith.

Where to start? 

There were financial issues, an OVI (which he never informed Meyer about), an affair with a staffer, sex toys ordered and delivered to the offices at the Woody Hayes Athletic Center. In short, a ton of reasons why Smith could have been fired and no one would have batted an eye. There were also the domestic claims, though only an incident in 2009 while an assistant at Florida under Meyer has been confirmed by all parties. Meyer repeatedly talked to Smith about his behavior, warning him that if it happened again he would be fired. But he never did, and that’s concerning. Did he keep him on because he was a top recruiter? Because the receivers seemed to play hard for him? Because he was Earle Bruce’s grandson, and Bruce was the man who helped Meyer break into the coaching profession?

Probably all of the above.

While loyalty is to be commended, at some point you have to take a step back and ask yourself if it’s worth it. Is the stain on your reputation and that of your university worth keeping such a troubled guy on staff? 

Meyer apparently thought so, at least until Smith violated protection order. At that point he was fired. That was on July 23rd. The next morning a story by Brett McMurphy ran alleging that Smith had been arrested for domestic violence (which was untrue), and Meyer was asked at the Big Ten Media Days, “the 2015 reported incident … are you saying you don’t know anything about that, or do you believe that didn’t happen?” Meyer said, “I can’t say it didn’t happen because I wasn’t there. I was never told about anything, never anything came to light, I’ve never had a conversation about it. So I know nothing about that.”
He then doubled down – a crucial mistake – and uttered the infamous “There’s nothing. I don’t know who creates a story like that.”

The committee said it accepted that Meyer was “deeply absorbed” in football season and wanted to focus on football on that day. They kind of gave him a pass, saying he misspoke, but that reasons were complex, and that in their view, Meyer did not deliberately lie. He definitely came off looking bad, and should have said something to the effect of “we have let Zach Smith go due to an accumulation of things.” If asked to expand upon that, about the domestic violence incident specifically, he could have said he was aware of it, did what he was obligated to do and didn’t want to talk any further about it as it was a personnel matter. But he didn’t.
Urban Meyer (NewsOK)

He had a second chance, a chance to make it right, at the end of the August 22nd press conference. He was asked what he would say to Courtney Smith. His response was that he was “sorry we are in this situation.” It was obvious he did not believe her, and maybe he had reason not to. There were never charges, and the committee even hinted that no incident could be confirmed in 2015, referring to it throughout the report as “allegations.” The facts at hand can be debated, but his statement cannot be. In a situation like that one, even if you’re skeptical, be a bigger man and show some remorse for the victim. Don’t come off like a petulant kid, because that’s what you looked like.

All of those things can be examined up, down and sideways, and different people will have different feelings.

What cannot be disputed is that Meyer acted properly in reporting his concerns about Zach Smith to his superiors. The committee said as much, though added he should have done more and gone to Compliance. That seems odd, considering Compliance has no jurisdiction over these kinds of matters. Compliance deals with Title IX and NCAA violations, and this was neither.

The committee concluded the following:

“Although neither Urban Meyer nor Gene Smith condoned or covered up the alleged domestic abuse by Zach Smith, they failed to take sufficient management action relating to Zach Smith’s misconduct and retained an Assistant Coach who was not performing as an appropriate role model for OSU student-athletes. Permitting such misconduct to continue is not consistent with the values of the University and reflects poorly on Coach Meyer, Athletic Director Smith, and the University.”

So if Meyer did not violate his contract, he could not be fired – at least not with cause. OSU could have terminated him without cause, but would have owed him $38 million in the process. That’s a hefty price to pay someone to go away. The committee did chide him for his handling of Smith, of keeping him on staff despite repeated missteps, which is more than fair. Thus, the suspension.

If naysayers want to cast aspersions on the committee or on Ohio State, that’s a they problem, not an Urban Meyer problem. People don’t get to choose their version of reality, though they often do. Quick rushes to judgement, even if the facts prove otherwise. They will stick to their original ideas and blast the process, or ignore them altogether. If people want to throw shade at Meyer, that’s fine – as long as they have something to back their argument.

We’ve seen this recently – the misguided Tennessee fans who torpedoed Greg Schiano’s hire because they believed that he was tied to the Jerry Sandusky pedophile scandal at Penn State, even if no tangible evidence of that exists. They got vocal and UT backed away, ultimately hiring Jeremy Pruitt away from Alabama. 

The fact that this whole thing has devolved into a soap opera, a fencing match of dodge and parry statements, is sad. Prurient reports about things have nothing to do with the investigation are released just a reporter can stay relevant. That’s where journalism has gone. 

Even though Meyer was retained, there are no winners here, at least not in the short term. 

OSU will take a PR hit nationally, though that doesn’t bother me too much because local approval matters much more than anything the outsiders say. The only way it becomes an issue is if recruiting suffers, and at the moment that does not appear to be the case. 

Journalism hasn’t won because it has sunk to the lowest common denominator, with a few exceptions. 

Fans haven’t won because they’ve been painted with a broad brush.

The sport hasn’t won because too many people have been talking about off-field issues instead of battles for the starting quarterback job.

All of that said, at least the situation is no longer a distraction. The Buckeyes and Meyer know where they stand and can begin planning for the season.

It will be interesting to see not only how the Buckeyes play in week 4 vs Tulane, but how Meyer comports himself going forward. While the press conference was botched – twice, in fact – there is a real chance to shape a new legacy, to make people forget about this blip in time.

He’s remade himself once before. Can he do it again?

For the sake of his career, he will have to.

Sunday, August 19, 2018

Lifting The Lid On An Odd Obsession

Most fans devote a sizable chunk of time to collecting merchandise and memorabilia for their favorite teams, so it should come as little surprise that your favorite blogger does, too. It's often a way to connect to your team, to show your support in a small way. So you buy the jerseys, the pennants, the shoes, whatever.

While it's never been a secret that my fandom begins and ends with Ohio State, it may be a little shocking to find out that I collect hats from colleges and universities around the nation. A recent reorganization allowed me to get an actual count -- there are 215 in my collection. I also have some MLB, NHL and NFL hats, though in much smaller numbers as I find in pro sports it's about the team you root for, and that's it.

The habit started innocently enough, without any thought of it really becoming a habit.
For awhile I was consumed with cool college team nicknames — Cal Irvine Anteaters, Lock Haven Bald Eagles, Pomona-Pitzer Sagehens and UC-Santa Cruz Banana Slugs (a heavy concentration of good names is in California apparently) — and out of that came an idea. A noble idea, and one that would be difficult to realize, but an idea nonetheless.

I would collect every hat of every college sports team in the country. After thinking about just how this would be achieved I realized that it would be a pretty arduous undertaking. Things like work and sleep and eating would probably get in the way, so I would have to ditch those. After about five hours I came to my senses and figured out that the goal would need to be a little smaller. All of the FBS football schools. Once that was taken care of, then it would be all of the FCS football schools. Then all of the basketball schools. If the occasional NAIA institution came along, all the better. It appeared to be cheaper than buying jerseys, and quite a bit more accessible, too. Thanks to school websites and online outlets like Fanatics, obscure schools are no longer obscure.

Before continuing, a distinction must be made — I had a few hats prior to beginning my “collection”, but all were Ohio State. Growing up in Columbus and having the Buckeyes as my team that was only natural. The Buckeyes are also among a very small group of schools — Florida and Florida State being the others — where more than one hat is allowed. I have family in Florida and they rooted for both schools, and on a few occasions a Gators or Seminoles hat was presented to yours truly. Never look a gift hat in the mouth, I always say.

The first hat I decided to buy with the express purpose was Southern Illinois, the good ol' Salukis.










 I was covering the Big Ten Wrestling Championships and traveling with the Ohio State contingent, and during some down time decided to head over to a local mall. The Salukis had always been another of my favorite nicknames, so when I saw the hat I knew it would be mine (cue the Wayne’s World clip).
After that, it didn’t really matter where I was — if I could find a school hat that I didn’t already own it was in the collection. And I didn’t discriminate, either.

I do own a Michigan hat, but have never (nor will ever) worn it. Same can be said about the University of Miami. Have it, won’t wear it. General rule -- if I can't stand the team, it ain't going on my head.

A quick perusal of my collection, which is grouped by conference, then alphabetically, then schools that do not play football, then Ohio State:








I don’t have nearly the time to pursue my hobby the way I used to — for one thing I’m off the road, and for another I have to be on a real mission to find one. It’s nice having enough hats to color coordinate just about everything I own, and you can bet at times they are conversation starters. I’m also not above taking a bunch with me to the local sports bar at NCAA Tournament time and changing out as games end.

It's not a bad thing to have so many hats -- they are conversation starters, they can elicit cheers from a fan base, and they are generally just cool to have.

Sunday, August 12, 2018

2018 Top Head Coaching Hires

There was quite a bit of offseason movement on the college football coaching front, with some big names (Chip Kelly) returning to the game after time off and a few fixtures (Jimbo Fisher) making surprising moves to new programs.

All of these coaches will have differing levels of success, especially in year one, as some inherited better programs while others will need to do a rebuild or change to a new system.

This is one man's ranking of the top coaching hires of 2018.

Scott Frost (Pioneer Press)
1. Scott Frost/Nebraska -- Frost "going home" was about as much of a slam dunk as any coaching hire this season, and after leading UCF to an unbeaten record the natives will expect big things right away. It might take a season or two, but Frost should be able to recruit better than his predecessor, and it's already apparent that he can put his players in the best position to succeed. He brought defensive coordinator Erik Chinander with him from UCF, which might be an issue -- UCF was not good defensively despite being athletically sound and fast. If the D is as bad as it was in 2017 (Nebraska ranked 101st in total defense and 116th in scoring defense), what Frost is able to get done offensively might not matter. Still, this one has the feel of a grand slam hire.

2. Chip Kelly/UCLA -- Will Kelly be able to make a seamless transition back to the college game after some time off? He does have a proven track record, and his glitzy offense should play well in Hollywood. The Bruins must get tougher, however, and Kelly's defenses at Oregon were hit and miss. There's no doubt that there will be a ton of eyes on Kelly, which is a win for the Bruins, who had become second fiddle to their crosstown rival USC. The Bruins were one of the younger teams in the Pac-12 last season, and once Kelly gets the recruiting machine they could be one of the most talented. The only question here is whether or not Kelly will once again get a wandering eye for the NFL.

3. Willie Taggart/Florida State -- The surprising move by Jimbo Fisher to leave Tallahassee for College Station opened the door for Taggart, who has improved every program he's coached and who is a tireless recruiter. He won't need to really "program build" the Seminoles as there is already a boatload of talent on hand, and he should be able to spice up an FSU offense that hasn't finished in the nation's top 20 since 2013. His lone recruiting class at Oregon was top 20, so you have to believe he will get that machine humming as well.

4. Dan Mullen/Florida -- This might end up being the best coaching hire of 2018, even if it isn't quite as high-profile as Chip Kelly returning to college football. Mullen turned Mississippi State into a very good program, and with more money, resources and better talent in Gainesville could be on the verge of returning the Gators to championship level. He was part of the last UF coaching staff to win a national title in 2006, and his work with quarterbacks should give Gators fans hope that the offense will get it going sooner rather than later.


5. Jimbo Fisher/Texas A&M -- Fisher surprised many when he decided to leave FSU for A&M -- partly because he had a better situation at FSU and partly because the Seminoles have been a better program for quite some time. Fisher is an excellent recruiter so he should be able to upgrade the depth and talent in College Station, but there could be a worry as the Seminoles regressed after Jameis Winston left for the NFL, losing 12 games in the last three seasons and looking uninspired and undisciplined doing it. Fisher should provide a short term boost for the Aggies, but may find a real breakthrough difficult as he now has to battle Alabama, Georgia, Auburn and Florida, SEC programs that historically are equal or better than A&M.

6. Joe Moorhead/Mississippi State -- Moorhead was the architect behind Penn State's resurgent offense, and has one of the brightest offensive minds in all of football. With quarterback Nick Fitzgerald returning, Moorhead has one of the most dangerous weapons in America at his disposal. Moorhead turned FCS Fordham into a team that won 12 games in his second season after inheriting a one-win squad. Moorhead gets his chance to shine at a high profile program, and the belief here is that he succeeds wildly. 

7. Chad Morris/Arkansas -- Things never worked out for Bret Bielema, who tried to bring a Midwest approach to the SEC. Morris resurrected an SMU program that was winless when he took over, and he has connections in Texas which means recruiting should pick up. His hiring of veteran defensive coordinator John Chavis is a signal that Morris is serious about making the Razorbacks a player in the SEC title race.

8. Mario Cristobal/Oregon -- Oregon's players stumped for the former Florida International coach and Ducks assistant after Taggart left for Florida State, and hiring Cristobal full time brings familiarity. His record at FIU wasn't good (27-47) but he was undertaking one of the most massive rebuilds in recent memory, so on balance he did all right. Cristobal is an elite recruiter, and Oregon has been a big brand for a number of years now, so the players should show up. How well Cristobal does with them remains to be seen.
 
Kevin Sumlin (AllSportsTucson.com)
9. Kevin Sumlin/Arizona -- Many lauded this hire, which is curious given Sumlin's results at Texas A&M (five losses in each of the last four seasons). After a bang-up start in his first two seasons, Sumlin's offense (without Johnny Manziel) did a freefall, failing to break the top 25 in scoring from 2014 forward. Also noted as a wizard with quarterback, the Aggies had little resembling a passing game after Manziel, missing on nearly everyone it brought into the program. On the plus side, Sumlin is a very good recruiter, averaging a top 10 finish over the last five seasons. With lower expectations at Arizona, and a wondrous quarterback talent in Khalil Tate, Sumlin should be good right away in Tucson. Whether or not he'll be good in a few years is the big question.

10. Steve Campbell/South Alabama -- Campbell is one of the few new coaches with a national championship under his belt -- two in fact, albeit at lower levels. He won a Division II title at Delta State and a JUCO crown in 2007 at Mississippi Gulf Coast. He went 20-5 the last two years at Central Arkansas and won this past season's Southland Conference crown, which is no mean feat given the collection of teams in that league. Campbell loves playing tempo on offense and had numerous players from his JUCO team go on to play FBS football. While the Jaguars have been competitive in the Sun Belt, there's never been a real breakthrough. Campbell could be the guy to change that.

11. Billy Napier/Louisiana -- Napier has a Power 5 pedigree, serving as Arizona State's OC last season after spending five seasons coaching receivers at Alabama. He was also at Clemson, and that kind of cache could turn into an upgrade of on-field talent for the Ragin' Cajuns. He may not be a household names to college football fans, but those in the profession know that he has the goods to be successful. He has an excellent offensive mind and has been a very good recruiter. He joins Campbell as another energetic Sun Belt coach.

12. Jeremy Pruitt/Tennessee -- Tennessee gave a blueprint on how not to handle a coaching search after it fired Butch Jones, hiring-then-not-hiring Ohio State's Greg Schiano after an uninformed fan revolt. After interviewing/pursuing some second-tier candidates, the Vols end up with Pruitt, which really was a good save, all things considered. Pruitt has been the architect of Alabama's stifling defenses the past two seasons and was at Georgia prior to that, so he knows the SEC. He's been great at developing players and is a solid recruiter but has zero head coaching experience, at any level, the main reason he doesn't get a higher grade. He should bring talent to Knoxville, but whether it will be enough to contend with Georgia and Florida in the SEC East remains to be seen.

13. Matt Luke/Ole Miss -- Given the situation Luke inherited, he did a bang up job getting the Rebels to .500 in 2017. The players seem to like him, and if is given a chance to get out from under NCAA sanctions he could have Ole Miss competitive again in a few seasons. The talent may not be there for the next couple of seasons thanks to the transgressions of Freeze, but Luke seems like a steady enough hand to get through the difficult times. Luke guided Ole Miss to wins over Kentucky and Mississippi State and was competitive against Texas A&M. Stability is the buzzword here, and Luke brings that.

14. Jonathan Smith/Oregon State -- It wasn't a sexy hire, but Smith is a former Beavers player and knows what it takes to win in Corvallis. He has spent the last six seasons working under Chris Petersen, which is a positive. He's an unknown when it comes to recruiting, but he definitely will provide passion as a former OSU player, and recruits will see that. If he can tap into the Washington and California markets, he could get enough talent to make the Beavers at least competitive.

15. Chad Lunsford/Georgia Southern -- Lunsford got the job after leading the Eagles to a 2-4 mark following the ouster of Tyson Summers (who had the Eagles at 0-6 before his firing). The players love him, and the effort and results were apparent after he took over the program. Georgia Southern is a proud program and doesn't like being down, and Lunsford was part of the very good recent past as an assistant on Willie Fritz's staff. Going back to the option, long a staple of GSU football, will warm the hearts of fans everywhere.

Sonny Dykes (APNews)
16. Sonny Dykes/SMU -- Dykes has shown his offensive chops, and he does have a good knowledge of the state of the Texas, but he has an overall losing record and has won eight games or more just three times. He wasn't good in rivalry games while at Cal (going 1-11 against USC, UCLA and Stanford), and his defenses have seldom been more than mediocre. Maybe this works out, but the feeling is this is a big step down from Morris. Even if it is, the offense should at least be entertaining.

17. Josh Heupel/UCF -- Heupel knows offense, coordinating Missouri's high powered attack in 2017. Still, this one was a bit of a head-scratcher as there were more proven candidates out there. The Knights may not be quite as prolific as they were in 2017 under Frost, though Heupel should be able to keep McKenzie Milton in the spotlight with an offense that depends heavily on quarterback playmaking. The fast-paced offense should still be a staple, but the question is will Heupel be more like he was at Missouri (successful) or Oklahoma (unsuccessful)? It was a bit odd that UCF didn't make a bigger splash given how high its profile has become, and Heupel has never been a head coach at any level. So it is a gamble, but one that could have a huge payoff.

18. Mike Bloomgren/Rice -- Bloomgren may not have the profile of a lot of coaches on this list, but he spent the last seven seasons at Stanford as David Shaw's right hand man as well as spending some time as an assistant in the NFL. Like Stanford, Rice has stringent academic requirement, so Bloomgren should be able to figure out how to win with those limitations. He has zero head coaching experience, but Rice is a good level for him to cut his teeth. If he can win there, the 40-year-old will be able to write his ticket to a Power 5 job in a few years.

19. Sean Lewis/Kent State -- Lewis is a brilliant offensive mind, orchestrating Syracuse's high-scoring offense and being with Dino Babers since his Eastern Illinois days. He knows the MAC and knows how to formulate an offense that will put up points, which was a huge issue for Haynes in his five seasons. Lewis is unproven as a recruiter, but you can bet he'll look for some diamonds in the rough types, players who might be undersized but who fit his offense. The youngest coach in FBS (31), Lewis is definitely a gamble. But Kent State is a program that needs to take one, and maybe they hit on something this time.

20. Dana Dimel/UTEP -- Dimel comes from Kansas State, where he ran the offense from 2009 to last season, and has been a head coach before (Wyoming, Houston). UTEP does not routinely get high-profile players, but Dimel has proven adept at getting more out of less working with the Wildcats offense. That has to be the hope for the admins in UTEP, which hasn't won a bowl game since 1967 and has been to the postseason just four times since 2000 and has posted just three winning seasons in that span. On the surface this seems like an odd hire, as Dimel is older (55) and may have a limited shelf life. But he knows how to recruit to remote outposts (Laramie definitely counts) and could provide a little bit of hope to the Miners downtrodden program.

21. Herm Edwards/Arizona State -- I love Herm -- who doesn't? His analytical mind, his way of turning a phrase, all of it. It's a joy to listen to. But coaching a major college football after not coaching collegiately  since 1989, or at any level since 2008? He was clumsy in his introductory press conference, and this just doesn't have the feel of something that will end well. Whether or not you agree with the decision to fire Todd Graham, who was 31-23 in league play in six seasons, the hiring of Edwards is one of the more head-scratching hires in recent memory. Maybe it works out and we got a long dose of Herm-isms. But the guess here is that it will be a jarring return to the game, and won't end well.

Saturday, August 11, 2018

2018 Heisman Trophy

Whether or not people believe that the Heisman Trophy is still relevant, it IS the top individual award in college football. So, like it or not, it is still treated with reverence. While most people have figured out that is an exclusionary award -- which fits, given that the College Football Playoff model is exclusionary toward Group of Five teams -- given only to the top offensive player (more specifically the top quarterback, with running backs occasionally breaking the hold), there will be buzz and hype and weekly tracking of the candidates, all the way until the December Saturday when the statue is handed out.

Here is a look at how we feel the voting will go this year. Our top three follows the projection.
Bryce Love (The Mercury News)

1. RB Bryce Love/Stanford -- It's all a matter of health for the senior, who ran for over 2,000 yards a year ago despite being bothered by a nagging ankle injury most of the year. Love would benefit from a double-digit victory season from the Cardinal, unless he dominates the field.

2. QB Will Grier/West Virginia -- The signal-caller for what could be the nation's most potent passing attack has to be in the mix. He threw for nearly 3,500 yards and 34 scores despite missing the final two games of 2017. If he puts up video game numbers, the senior should be invited to the Big Apple.

3. QB Khalil Tate/Arizona -- Kevin Sumlin has done wonders with quarterbacks, at least in his first year of coaching a team. Tate is a work in progress as a passer, but oh can he run. Those wheels and the fact that he puts up at least two or three jaw-dropping plays each week keeps him high on the list.

4. RB Jonathan Taylor/Wisconsin -- What a freshman debut he made last year, running for 1,977 yards and averaging 6.6 yards per carry. If the Badgers stay in the thick of the championship chase it will be due in large part to Taylor's wheels.

5. QB Nick Fitzgerald/Mississippi State -- Like Tate, Fitzgerald can be a little erratic as a passer. But he's rushed for over 100 yards 14 times in his career, and new head coach Joe Moorhead should find ways to highlight his playmaking ability.

6. RB JK Dobbins/Ohio State -- Another one who had a fabulous frosh campaign, Dobbins should be the beneficiary of more work this year as the Buckeyes eliminate the quarterback run and rely on their power run game. Mike Weber will steal some carries, but Dobbins should have enough to be a fixture in the Heisman race.

7. RB AJ Dillon/Boston College -- The Eagles are emerging in the ACC, and Steve Adazzio loves him some smashmouth football. With better quarterback play, Dillon should find a few more holes to run through and could become the biggest thing in Chestnut Hill since a guy named Flutie.

8. DL Ed Oliver/Houston -- A vote for the defense is a vote for Oliver, the man-child who terrorizes opposing backfields on a regular basis. There is talk that he will get some work on offense in 2018, which means he could end up higher on this list. A freak of nature, the athletic Cougar is definitely one of America's best.

9. QB McKenzie Milton/UCF -- The Knights offense will likely take a step back this year, but Milton is still the engine that makes it go. The junior is excellent at extending plays, is a sneaky good runner and as accurate as they come. His candidacy will go as far as the Knights do, which means if their unbeaten string is snapped he fades into the distance.

10. QB Trace McSorley/Penn State -- The onus should be on the senior with the loss of Saquon Barkley, and he has the weapons to put up big numbers through the air. He's a better runner than people think, and plays his best at the biggest moments. If PSU is in the championship hunt McSorley will be in prime position.

Others to watch: QB Tua Tagovailoa/Alabama; RB DeAndre Swift/Georgia; QB Jarrett Stidham/Auburn; QB Jake Browning/Washington; RB Rodney Anderson/Oklahoma; QB Jake Fromm/Georgia; RB Cam Akers/Florida State; QB Drew Lock/Missouri; RB Damien Harris/Alabama; WR Deebo Samuel/South Carolina

That is how we see the race shaking out.

But that is not who we would choose.

This can obviously change once the season begins, but at this moment our three votes would go to:

1. Ed Oliver/Houston
2. Will Grier/West Virginia
3. Bryce Love/Stanford

Also on our radar are FSU's Akers, Wisconsin's Taylor, OSU's Dobbins, Arizona's Tate and South Carolina's Samuel.

Friday, August 10, 2018

CFB 2018 Rankings -- 1-130

You can't have a football season without predictions, so we will do our part to make sure that expectation is met.

The following are not rankings of team strengths heading into the 2018 season, but rather how we believe the rankings will look when the dust settles on the season.

CFP PLAYOFF
SEMIFINALS
DECEMBER 29
ORANGE BOWL
1 Clemson vs. 4 Washington
COTTON BOWL
2 Alabama vs. 3 Ohio State
JAN 7, 2019
SANTA CLARA, CALIF.
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP 
1 Clemson over 2 Alabama

NEW YEAR'S SIX
PEACH BOWL (DEC. 29)
5 Georgia vs. 7 Miami
ROSE BOWL (JAN. 1)
8 Penn State vs. 13 Auburn 
SUGAR BOWL (JAN. 1)
6 West Virginia vs. 12 Mississippi State
FIESTA BOWL (JAN. 1) 
9 Oklahoma vs. 10 Boise State 
 
COLLEGE FOOTBALL FOCUS 2018 RANKINGS
1 Clemson
2 Alabama
3 Ohio State
4 Washington
5 Georgia
6 West Virginia
7 Miami
8 Penn State
9 Oklahoma
10 Boise State
11 Wisconsin
12 Mississippi State
13 Auburn
14 Michigan
15 Michigan State
16 Florida State
17 Texas
18 Stanford
19 Florida
20 TCU
21 FAU
22 USC
23 Oregon
24 South Carolina
25 Utah
26 Notre Dame
27 Texas A&M
28 UCF 
29 Boston College
30 Northwestern
31 NC State
32 Arizona
33 Iowa State
34 Virginia Tech
35 Missouri
36 Iowa
37 LSU
38 Purdue
39 Oklahoma State
40 Nebraska
41 Kansas State
42 Wake Forest
43 Georgia Tech
44 Memphis
45 Pittsburgh
46 Louisville
47 Ole Miss
48 Maryland
49 Texas Tech
50 San Diego State
51 Kentucky
52 Fresno State
53 Houston
54 Arkansas State
55 California
56 Baylor 
57 Arkansas
58 Duke
59 Navy
60 USF
61 UCLA
62 Temple
63 Northern Illinois
64 North Carolina
65 Indiana
66 Colorado
67 Tennessee
68 Minnesota
69 Army
70 Syracuse
71 Arizona State
72 Virginia
73 Marshall
74 Wyoming
75 Ohio
76 Toledo
77 Appalachian State
78 Vanderbilt
79 Washington State
80 Utah State
81 Louisiana Tech
82 Troy
83 North Texas
84 Buffalo 
85 Tulane
86 BYU
87 Middle Tennessee
88 Miami (Ohio)
89 UAB
90 Rutgers
91 Kansas
92 Nevada
93 Western Michigan
94 Illinois
95 Southern Miss
96 SMU
97 Colorado State
98 Air Force
99 Georgia Southern
100 Cincinnati
101 Akron
102 ULM
103 Old Dominion
104 Tulsa
105 UNLV
106 Oregon State
107 FIU
108 UTSA
109 Eastern Michigan
110 UMass
111 New Mexico
112 Central Michigan 
113 New Mexico State
114 Georgia State
115 Louisiana
116 Bowling Green
117 Ball State
118 Western Kentucky
119 UConn
120 San Jose State
121 East Carolina
122 South Alabama
123 Charlotte
124 Kent State
125 Texas State
126 Hawaii
127 UTEP
128 Coastal Carolina
129 Rice
130 Liberty

Monday, August 6, 2018

A Radical But Practical College Football Realignment

Full disclosure -- I like the College Football Playoff the way it is. Four teams is perfect, it makes every week of the regular season akin to an elimination game, and that's how things should be. It doesn't quite eliminate you to lose once, but lose twice and you're done. Have zero issue with that, which is why it would have bothered me had Auburn made it in last year with three losses -- even with a conference championship.

While I like the format, the process is another matter entirely. The CFP committee is certainly well-intentioned, but not nearly transparent enough for most people. There's also the matter of no truly etched in stone criteria -- they say conference titles matter, but Ohio State in 2016 and Alabama last year got in despite neither winning their league. The committee also talks about who you beat and when, meaning that in their eyes it's better to lose in September than to lose in November (unless you're Alabama). Schedule strength SHOULD matter -- I'd much rather have a one loss team that played a grueling slate get in over an unbeaten that beat a bunch of tomato cans.
Under a new system, this would not happen every year (Sporting News)

Strength of schedule hurts most of the Group of Five teams, as their leagues are not seen as strong enough by the committee, even in a year when they run the table -- as UCF did last season. The Knights best wins came against #22 USF and #16 Memphis in the AAC title game, both wins by a touchdown. In the eyes of the committee, that seemed to pale next to Alabama's victory over Mississippi State, or Ohio State's win over Penn State, or Wisconsin's win over Michigan or ... you get the picture. The committee values a good record and good wins, as long as you're a Power 5 team. And that's wrong. If you are a Group of Five team and you are worthy, you should definitely be in the mix for inclusion in the playoff. To have UCF at 12 when the selections were unveiled was absolutely asinine.

Don't get me wrong, I don't believe UCF should have been included last year. But the fact that it wasn't even CONSIDERED after beating everyone on the schedule says that the process is flawed.

Those flaws in the process are turning off fans -- certainly those who follow Group of Five teams, but many others who swear allegiance to Power 5, too. And if you turn off your fans, they are eventually going to turn on you.

Now I know they didn't ask, but I have come up with a better way to run the playoff, and college football.

One word -- relegation.

Isn't that what they do in English soccer? Why yes, it is.

The English Premier League has 20 teams, and is part of a system of eight different leagues that are interconnected. Most of them promote the top two, and have varying numbers in the playoffs for their league. They also relegate the bottom two or three to the level below theirs (Premier League is Level 1, so bottom three would go down to the English Football League Championship, Level 2), and this goes on each season. It allows smaller teams to, in theory, compete for the biggest prize in English soccer. Usually dominated by Manchester United and Chelsea and Arsenal, the Premier League saw a shock in 2015-16 when Leicester City broke through with a championship after being forecast for relegation before the season started.

If college football worked the same way, there would be even more intensity than there is now, and all teams would, in theory, have something to play for.
Group Of Five teams would be welcome here (Sporting News)

At the moment, there are maybe 25-30 teams each season that realistically believe they have a chance to win it all. The Group of Five need not apply because they need to be almost doubly impressive to even get a sniff.

Well, my system would change that.

Think about this -- two leagues, the A League and the B League. With 130 teams, they can't quite be split evenly, so the top 64 would be put into the A and the remaining 66 would go to the B. It would be too problematic to promote and relegate teams every season, so a five-year snapshot would be used. A team's record after that fifth year would determine if they moved up, down or stayed where they were.

The A League is made up of the 64 winningest programs over the past five years, put into eight divisions -- including one made up solely of G5 teams. Teams were placed, for the most part, in geographically appropriate regions.

Scheduling would not be very difficult -- each division is eight teams, so you play all seven from your division, then five others of your choosing. Similar to the Premier League, points would be given for victories -- two for a win by an A League team, which has a limit of just one lower league game, but it isn't mandatory.

For the B League, which has six divisions of 11 teams, it's basically the same, only a win over an A League team is worth three points. All others are worth two. B League teams also play seven teams from their division and five others of their choosing, with the other five having no restrictions. They can schedule five A League teams, in hopes of chasing the big points, or five B League teams, attempting to stay in their own strata but picking up victories.

At the end of five seasons, points are tallied, and the eight A League teams with the fewest points move down to the B League, while the eight B League teams with the most points move up.

The eight A League divisional champions are automatically put into the College Football Playoff -- bye-bye championship games. There's zero sense in having to beat a team twice to qualify, and this eliminates that problem. With no championship games, there would be little to no chance that a three or four loss team makes it in. And that's a good thing. The committee would seed the teams 1-8, with the top four receiving home games in the quarterfinals. The semis and final would be part of the bowl system, which would be severely cut down from the 40 we have now to 15.

I know, I know -- bowl trips are a great experience, they give a team 15 additional practices, the kids enjoying seeing new places. Whatever. Bowls should be a REWARD, and teams that win six games should not be rewarded as they had a mediocre season. Hell, it would be great if seven win teams were left out, but that won't always happen. So the top 30 teams each season (based on points) get to play in bowl games. If there are ties, the bowl is allowed to choose.

What does that mean for the B League? It means get better, kids.

You want to eat at the big table? Prove you belong there.

Don't keep hiring retread coaches, don't keep pocketing that league television network money instead of spending it on football. Commit to excellence. Wins will follow.

And with a five year window, it may just keep coaches on the job a little bit longer, giving them a chance to build instead of tossing them out after two or three years.

So that's my plan.

Mike, you're asking -- where is my team?

Well, feast your eyes on the following:

A LEAGUE
7 DIVISIONAL OPPONENTS
5 OPPONENTS FROM ANY OTHER DIVISION, BUT ONLY ONE CAN BE FROM B LEAGUE.
NO CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES
DIVISION WINNER GETS AUTOMATIC BERTH IN CFP
COMMITTEE ONLY NEEDED FOR SEEDING
2 POINTS FOR A WIN
MOST (B)/FEWEST (A) POINTS IN FIVE YEARS MOVE UP/DOWN

TOP 26 TEAMS NOT IN PLAYOFF PLAY IN BOWL GAMES, FOUR QUARTERFINAL PLAYOFF WINNERS GO INTO PREDETERMINED BOWL GAMES

UPDATED WITH RECORDS THROUGH OCT. 6TH

SOUTH
UCF (12-0)*
TROY (9-3)#
HOUSTON (8-4)#
ARKANSAS STATE (8-4)#
MEMPHIS (8-5)#
LOUISIANA TECH (7-5)
USF (7-5)
WESTERN KENTUCKY (3-9)
MIDEAST
WEST VIRGINIA (8-3)*
MARSHALL (8-4)#
MIDDLE TENNESSEE (8-5)#
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (8-5)#
WESTERN MICHIGAN (7-5)
TENNESSEE (5-7)
NAVY (3-9)
LOUISVILLE (2-10)
DEEP SOUTH
ALABAMA (13-0)*
LSU (9-3)#
MISSISSIPPI STATE (8-4)#
TEXAS A&M (8-4)#
AUBURN (7-5)#
GEORGIA TECH (7-5)#
FLORIDA STATE (5-7)
MISSISSIPPI (5-7)
COASTAL
CLEMSON (13-0)*
GEORGIA (11-2)#
FLORIDA (9-3)#
MIAMI FLA (7-5)#
DUKE (7-5)#
SOUTH CAROLINA (7-5)
VIRGINIA TECH (6-6)
NORTH CAROLINA (2-9)
SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON (10-3)*
WASHINGTON STATE (10-2)#
BOISE STATE (10-3)#
OREGON (8-4)#
SAN DIEGO STATE (7-5)#
ARIZONA STATE (7-5)#
ARIZONA (5-7)
UCLA (3-9)
MIDLANDS
OKLAHOMA (12-1)*
IOWA (8-4)#
MISSOURI (8-4)#
BAYLOR (6-6)
OKLAHOMA STATE (6-6)
MINNESOTA (6-6)
KANSAS STATE (5-7)
NEBRASKA (4-8)
MOUNTAIN
UTAH (9-4)*
STANFORD (8-4)#
WISCONSIN (7-5)#
TCU (6-6)
BRIGHAM YOUNG (6-6)
USC (5-7)
AIR FORCE (5-7)
COLORADO STATE (3-9)
MID SOUTH
NOTRE DAME (12-0)*
OHIO STATE (12-1)#
MICHIGAN (10-2)#
PENN STATE (9-3)#
OHIO (8-4)#
NORTHWESTERN (8-5)#
MICHIGAN STATE (7-5)
TOLEDO (7-5)

B LEAGUE
7 DIVISIONAL OPPONENTS
5 OPPONENTS FROM ANY OTHER DIVISION, TWO CAN BE FROM A LEAGUE
2 POINTS FOR A WIN, 3 FOR A WIN OVER A LEAGUE TEAM.
MOST (B)/FEWEST (A) POINTS IN FIVE YEARS MOVE UP/DOWN

EAST
CINCINNATI (10-2)
BUFFALO (10-3)
ARMY (9-2)
SYRACUSE (9-3)
TEMPLE (8-4)
BOSTON COLLEGE (7-5)
PITTSBURGH (7-6)
MARYLAND (5-7)
UMASS (4-8)
RUTGERS (1-11)
UCONN (1-11)
SOUTH COAST
APPALACHIAN STATE (10-2)
NC STATE (9-3)
FIU (8-4)
VIRGINIA (7-5)
WAKE FOREST (6-6)
LIBERTY (6-6)
CHARLOTTE (5-7)
COASTAL CAROLINA (5-7)
FLORIDA ATLANTIC (5-7)
OLD DOMINION (4-8)
EAST CAROLINA (3-9)
MIDDLE AMERICA
KENTUCKY (9-3)
EASTERN MICHIGAN (7-5)
PURDUE (6-6)
MIAMI O (6-6)
INDIANA (5-7)
ILLINOIS (4-8)
AKRON (4-8)
BALL STATE (4-8)
BOWLING GREEN (3-9)
KENT STATE (2-10)
CENTRAL MICHIGAN (1-11)
GREAT PLAINS
TEXAS (9-4)
NORTH TEXAS (9-3)
IOWA STATE (8-4)
TEXAS TECH (5-7)
SMU (5-7)
NEW MEXICO (3-9)
UTSA (3-9)
KANSAS (3-9)
NEW MEXICO STATE (3-9)
TEXAS STATE (3-9)
RICE (2-11)
GOLD MOUNTAIN
FRESNO STATE (11-2)
UTAH STATE (10-2)
HAWAII (8-5)
CALIFORNIA (7-5)
NEVADA (7-5)
WYOMING (6-6)
COLORADO (5-7)
UNLV (4-8)
OREGON STATE (2-10)
SAN JOSE STATE (1-11)
UTEP (1-11)
DIXIE
UAB (10-3)
GEORGIA SOUTHERN (9-3)
LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE (7-6)
SOUTHERN MISS (6-5)
VANDERBILT (6-6)
TULANE (6-6)
ULM (6-6)
TULSA (3-9)
SOUTH ALABAMA (3-9)
ARKANSAS (2-10)
GEORGIA STATE (2-10)

Got it? Looks exciting, right?

These would be the bowl games:

Troy vs Duke
Houston vs Marshall
Arkansas State vs. San Diego State
Memphis vs Northern Illinois
Middle Tennessee vs Ohio
LSU vs Washington State
Miami vs Oregon
Boise State vs Florida
Mississippi State vs Michigan
Georgia Tech vs Northwestern
Penn State vs Auburn
Stanford vs Texas A&M
Wisconsin vs. Missouri
Iowa vs Arizona State
Georgia vs Ohio State

This would be the CFP field for 2018 as things currently stand:

UCF
West Virginia
Alabama
Clemson
Washington
Oklahoma
Utah
Notre Dame

They would be seeded (purely hypothetical):

(8) West Virginia at (1) Alabama
(7) Utah at (2) Clemson
(6) UCF (3) Notre Dame
(5) Washington at (4) Oklahoma

That, friends, would be very cool.

The winners would then play in two predetermined bowls (rotated among the six currently used):

Cotton Bowl
Clemson vs Notre Dame

Orange Bowl
Alabama vs Oklahoma

The championship game would still be a neutral site game, but not nearly as late as it is now.

With the conference title games eliminated, the quarterfinals could be played in mid-December, and then the semifinals just after Christmas. The title game would be as close as possible to New Years Day -- either as a capper to a few other bowl games, or a day or two afterward. So the longest time anyone has off is two weeks, between the end of the regular season and the quarterfinals. After that, it would be a week, give or take a couple of days.

This would satisfy most people, as a G5 team would be included, and fans would get a real shot to participate with the quarterfinal games. It would have a true atmosphere, which is missing far too often in the postseason.

One note about this -- it will never happen, because the big time schools don't want to give away any of the money. They don't like to share, especially with teams and leagues they believe to be inferior.

But wouldn't it make the world a better place if this somehow, some way, became a reality?

It would convert me from being a proponent of "No More Than Four" to a champion of "Eight Is Great."