Sunday, January 21, 2018

Rating College Football's Coaching Hires

The 2017 college football season is squarely in the history books, but that doesn't mean the sport is without relevance.

There is plenty going on during this offseason, including teams putting the finishing touches on recruiting classes, players deciding whether to turn pro or return to school, and the always turning coaching carousel.

With jobs now filled, we rate the coaching hires heading into the 2018 season.

These ratings are with the long-term in mind. Some of these guys may struggle due to the state of the program but turn things around, and some may be immediate hits before bogging down into mediocrity.

A
Chip Kelly (GoJoeBruin)

Chip Kelly/UCLA (Jim Mora Jr) -- Will Kelly be able to make a seamless transition back to the college game after some time off? He does have a proven track record, and his glitzy offense should play well in Hollywood. The Bruins must get tougher, however, and Kelly's defenses at Oregon were hit and miss. There's no doubt that there will be a ton of eyes on Kelly, which is a win for the Bruins, who had become second fiddle to their crosstown rival USC. The Bruins were one of the younger teams in the Pac-12 last season, and once Kelly gets the recruiting machine they could be one of the most talented. The only question here is whether or not Kelly will once again get a wandering eye for the NFL.

Dan Mullen/Florida (Jim McElwain) -- This might end up being the best coaching hire of 2018, even if it isn't quite as high-profile as Chip Kelly returning to college football. Mullen turned Mississippi State into a very good program, and with more money, resources and better talent in Gainesville could be on the verge of returning the Gators to championship level. He was part of the last UF coaching staff to win a national title in 2006, and his work with quarterbacks should give Gators fans hope that the offense will get it going sooner rather than later.

Scott Frost/Nebraska (Mike Riley) -- Frost "going home" was about as much of a slam dunk as any coaching hire this season, and after leading UCF to an unbeaten record the natives will expect big things right away. It might take a season or two, but Frost should be able to recruit better than his predecessor, and it's already apparent that he can put his players in the best position to succeed. He brought defensive coordinator Erik Chinander with him from UCF, which might be an issue -- UCF was not good defensively despite being athletically sound and fast. If the D is as bad as it was in 2017 (Nebraska ranked 101st in total defense and 116th in scoring defense), what Frost is able to get done offensively might not matter. Still, this one has the feel of a grand slam hire.

Willie Taggart/Florida State (Jimbo Fisher) -- The surprising move by Jimbo Fisher to leave Tallahassee for College Station opened the door for Taggart, who has improved every program he's coached and who is a tireless recruiter. He won't need to really "program build" the Seminoles as there is already a boatload of talent on hand, and he should be able to spice up an FSU offense that hasn't finished in the nation's top 20 since 2013. His lone recruiting class at Oregon was top 20, so you have to believe he will get that machine humming as well.

A-
Jimbo Fisher (Texas Tribune)
Jimbo Fisher/Texas A&M (Kevin Sumlin) -- Fisher surprised many when he decided to leave FSU for A&M -- partly because he had a better situation at FSU and partly because the Seminoles have been a better program for quite some time. Fisher is an excellent recruiter so he should be able to upgrade the depth and talent in College Station, but there could be a worry as the Seminoles regressed after Jameis Winston left for the NFL, losing 12 games in the last three seasons and looking uninspired and undisciplined doing it. Fisher should provide a short term boost for the Aggies, but may find a real breakthrough difficult as he now has to battle Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Florida and Mississippi State, SEC programs that are equal or better than A&M.

Joe Moorhead/Mississippi State (Dan Mullen) -- Moorhead was the architect behind Penn State's resurgent offense, and has one of the brightest offensive minds in all of football. With quarterback Nick Fitzgerald returning next year, Moorhead has one of the most dangerous weapons in America at his disposal. Moorhead turned FCS Fordham into a team that won 12 games in his second season after inheriting a one-win squad. Moorhead gets his chance to shine at a high profile program, and the belief here is that he succeeds wildly. 

B+
Chad Morris/Arkansas (Bret Bielema) -- Things never worked out for Bielema, who tried to bring a Midwest approach to the SEC, with poor results. Morris resurrected an SMU program that was winless when he took over, and he has connections in Texas which means recruiting should pick up. His hiring of veteran defensive coordinator John Chavis is a signal that Morris is serious about making the Razorbacks a player in the SEC title race.

Mike Bloomgren/Rice (David Bailiff) -- Bloomgren may not have the profile of a lot of coaches on this list, but he spent the last seven seasons at Stanford as David Shaw's right hand man as well as spending some time as an assistant in the NFL. Like Stanford, Rice has stringent academic requirement, so Bloomgren should be able to figure out how to win with those limitations. He has zero head coaching experience, but Rice is a good level for him to cut his teeth. If he can win there, the 40 year old will be able to write his ticket to a Power 5 job in a few years.

B
Jeremy Pruitt/Tennessee (Butch Jones) -- Tennessee gave a blueprint on how not to handle a coaching search after it fired Butch Jones, hiring then not hiring Ohio State's Greg Schiano after an uninformed fan revolt. After interviewing/pursuing some second-tier candidates, the Vols end up with Pruitt, which really was a good save all things considered. Pruitt has been the architect of Alabama's stifling defenses the past two seasons and was at Georgia prior to that, so he knows the SEC. He's been great at developing players and is a solid recruiter but has zero head coaching experience, at any level, the main reason he doesn't get a higher grade. 

B- 
Billy Napier/Louisiana-Lafayette (Mark Hudspeth) -- Napier has a Power 5 pedigree, serving as Arizona State's OC last season after spending five seasons coaching receivers at Alabama. He was also at Clemson, and that kind of cache could turn into an upgrade of on-field talent for the Ragin' Cajuns. He may not be a household names to college football fans, but those in the profession know that he has the goods to be successful. He has an excellent offensive mind and has been a very good recruiter.

Steve Campbell/South Alabama (Joey Jones) -- Campbell is one of the few new coaches with a national championship under his belt -- two in fact, albeit at lower levels. He won a Division II title at Delta State and a JUCO crown in 2007 at Mississippi Gulf Coast. He went 20-5 the last two years at Central Arkansas and won this past season's Southland Conference crown, which is no mean feat given the collection of teams in that league. Campbell loves playing tempo on offense and had numerous players from his JUCO team go on to play FBS football.

C+
Mario Cristobal/Oregon (Willie Taggart) -- Oregon's players stumped for the former Florida International coach and Ducks assistant after Taggart left for Florida State, and hiring Cristobal full time brings familiarity. His record at FIU wasn't good (27-47) but he was undertaking one of the most massive rebuilds in recent memory, so on balance he did all right. Cristobal is an elite recruiter, and Oregon has been a big brand for a number of years now, so the players should show up. How well Cristobal does with them remains to be seen.

Kevin Sumlin (AZCentral)
Kevin Sumlin/Arizona (Rich Rodriguez) -- Many lauded this hire, which is curious given Sumlin's results at Texas A&M (five losses in each of the last four seasons). After a bang-up start in his first two seasons, Sumlin's offense (without Johnny Manziel) did a freefall, failing to break the top 25 in scoring from 2014 forward. Also noted as a wizard with quarterback, the Aggies had little resembling a passing game after Manziel, missing on nearly everyone it brought into the program. On the plus side, Sumlin is a very good recruiter, averaging a top 10 finish over the last five seasons. With lower expectations at Arizona, and a wondrous quarterback talent in Khalil Tate, Sumlin should be good right away in Tucson. Whether or not he'll be good in a few years is the big question.

Chad Lunsford/Georgia Southern (Tyson Summers) -- Lunsford got the job after leading the Eagles to a 2-3 mark following the ouster of Summers. The players love him, and the effort and results were apparent after he took over the program. Georgia Southern is a proud program and doesn't like being down, and Lunsford was part of the very good recent past as an assistant on Willie Fritz's staff.

C
Sean Lewis/Kent State  (Paul Haynes) -- Lewis is a brilliant offensive mind, orchestrating Syracuse's high-scoring offense and being with Dino Babers since his Eastern Illinois days. He knows the MAC and he knows how to formulate an offense that will put up points, which was a huge issue for Haynes in his five seasons. Lewis is unproven as a recruiter, but you can bet he'll look for some diamonds in the rough types, players who might be undersized but who fit his offense.

Dana Dimel/UTEP (Sean Kugler) -- Dimel comes from Kansas State, where he ran the offense from 2009 to last season, and has been a head coach before (Wyoming, Houston). UTEP does not routinely get high-profile players, but Dimel has proven adept at getting more out of less working with the Wildcats offense. That has to be the hope for the admins in UTEP, which hasn't won a bowl game since 1967 and has been to the postseason just four times since 2000 and has posted just three winning seasons in that span.

Josh Heupel/UCF (Scott Frost) -- Heupel knows offense, coordinating Missouri's high powered attack in 2017. Still, this one was a bit of a head-scratcher as there were more proven candidates out there. The Knights may not be quite as prolific as they were in 2017 under Frost, though Heupel should be able to keep McKenzie Milton in the spotlight with an offense that depends heavily on quarterback playmaking.

Matt Luke (CBS Sports)
Matt Luke/Ole Miss (Hugh Freeze, interim to full time) -- Given the situation Luke inherited, he did a bang up job getting the Rebels to .500 in 2017. The players seem to like him, and if is given a chance to get out from under NCAA sanctions he could have Ole Miss competitive again in a few seasons. The talent may not be there for the next couple of seasons thanks to the transgressions of Freeze, but Luke seems like a steady enough hand to get through the difficult times. Luke guided Ole Miss to wins over Kentucky and Mississippi State and was competitive against Texas A&M.

C- 
Jonathan Smith/Oregon State (Gary Anderson) -- It wasn't a sexy hire, but Smith is a former Beavers player and knows what it takes to win in Corvallis. He has spent the last six seasons working under Chris Petersen, which is a positive. He's an unknown when it comes to recruiting, but he definitely will provide passion as a former OSU player, and recruits will see that. If he can tap into the Washington and California markets, he could get enough talent to make the Beavers at least competitive.

D+
Sonny Dykes/SMU (Chad Morris) -- Dykes has shown his offensive chops, and he does have a good knowledge of the state of the Texas, but he has an overall losing record and has won eight games or more just three times. He wasn't good in rivalry games while at Cal (going 1-11 against USC, UCLA and Stanford), and his defenses have seldom been more than mediocre. Maybe this works out, but the feeling is this is a big step down from Morris.

F
Herm Edwards/Arizona State (Todd Graham) -- I love Herm -- who doesn't? His analytical mind, his way of turning a phrase, all of it. It's a joy to listen to. But coaching a major college football after not coaching collegiately  since 1989, or at any level since 2008? He was clumsy in his introductory press conference, and this just doesn't have the feel of something that will end well. 

Sunday, January 7, 2018

Tide, Dawgs Set To Battle In All-SEC CFP Title Tilt

It seems like just yesterday that the 2017 college football season was kicking off, yet here it is -- the end of another campaign.

The College Football Playoff National Championship Game pits No. 2 Georgia (13-1) against No. 4 Alabama (12-1), an all-SEC battle that has the south salivating, but leaves much of the rest of the country uninterested. Similar to the BCS title game of 2012, when LSU battled the Tide in a rematch of a regular season contest won by the Tigers, this one could prove to be the lowest rated championship game in the four years of the event, simply due to "SEC Fatigue" -- which may or may not be a real thing. The SEC was not good this year, but it is possible for a league to have the two best teams yet be mediocre top to bottom -- like the SEC was in 2017.

One of the best storylines among many is the teacher vs. pupil angle. Alabama's Nick Saban has beaten every assistant he's ever faced -- 11-0 -- though it should be noted most of them were short-timers. UGA boss Kirby Smart was in Tuscaloosa for nine seasons, and no doubt picked up a few tricks of the trade here and there. So the moves and counters should be very interesting.

Another thing to watch is Alabama's conditioning -- the Tide have major injury problems, especially on defense, and run the risk of getting worn down by Georgia's dominant ground game.

Whoever wins will make it nine titles in 12 years for the conference, but believe this -- neither squad is playing for the conference. Both are playing for themselves -- Alabama to show that it is still the most dominant FBS program in America, and Georgia to show that it belongs at the party. It would be the first national title for the Bulldogs since 1980.

Jalen Hurts (USAToday)
ALABAMA OFFENSE (27) vs. GEORGIA DEFENSE (6)
Like Georgia, Alabama will want to control the clock and run the football. Damien Harris was great in Bama's 24-6 victory over Clemson, rolling up 77 of the 141 rushing yards for the game. He will be the bellcow for Alabama, but the Tide will also lean on battering ram Bo Scarbrough as well as ask quarterback Jalen Hurts to keep plays alive with his legs. There will also be designed quarterback runs, but that could be dicey against a Georgia front seven that is excellent laterally and straight ahead. Compounding matters is the loss of guard Lester Cotton. His absence could make it easier for Georgia All-America linebacker Roquan Smith to find holes and get into the backfield. Georgia's secondary isn't great, but neither is Alabama's passing game. Hurts has been far too inconsistent with his arm, which means Georgia will likely load up to stop Alabama's running game and make Hurts beat them through the air. Even with the wondrous talent of Calvin Ridley to throw to, it could be difficult for Hurts to impact the game with his arm. Smith is the unquestioned leader of the Dawgs D, but it's a team effort as 19 players have at least 20 tackles this season.

Sony Michel (RedandBlack.com)
GEORGIA OFFENSE (31) vs. ALABAMA DEFENSE (1)
Bulldogs freshman quarterback Jake Fromm showed that the big stage of the Rose Bowl was not too big for him, so Smart is not worried about whether or not he can lead Georgia in its biggest game of the season -- hell, biggest game of the last 35 years. Fromm was calm, completing 20 of 29 passes for 210 yards and two scores, and most importantly did not turn the football over. Alabama was top 10 nationally in takeaways, so keeping the football is paramount for Georgia. Alabama is tops in America against the run, allowing just 2.7 yards per carry and only eight touchdowns. But the Tide has not been tested the way it will be by Nick Chubb (145 yards, 2 TDs vs Oklahoma) and Sony Michel (181 yards, 3 TDs), and with a beat up linebacker unit Georgia could wreak some havoc if either back can get to the second level. Alabama is also the best in the country against the pass, allowing just seven touchdowns. There won't be a ton of blitzing from the Tide front four, which is led by Da'Ron Payne and Raekwon Davis. All-America Minkah Fitzpatrick leads a hard-hitting, ball-hawking (17 INTs) secondary, which could make life tough for Javon Wims and crew.

WHAT WINS THE GAME
Field position and defense. The Bulldogs were one of the best teams in the nation in field position advantage, and blocked an Oklahoma field goal in the Rose Bowl. Georgia is aggressive and will load the box against Alabama, so it will be up to Harris and the offensive line to stay ahead of the chains. Alabama is just 45th nationally in third down conversions while Georgia is ninth. Both teams allow just over 33 percent conversions to opponents, so getting off the field defensively will be key. Georgia appears more equipped to put together long drives, but also has been easier to drive the football against. With both teams sporting stout stop units, a gimmick or two could win the game. Payne caught a touchdown pass against Clemson, and Georgia allowed a touchdown to Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS, National Rank
Rush Offense -- Georgia 8, Alabama 10
Pass Efficiency Offense -- Georgia 7, Alabama 8
Total Offense -- Alabama 27, Georgia 31
Scoring Offense -- Alabama 12, Georgia 17

Rush Defense -- Alabama 1, Georgia 20
Pass Efficiency Defense -- Alabama 1, Georgia 13
Total Defense -- Alabama 1, Georgia 6
Scoring Defense -- Alabama 1, Georgia 5

Sacks Per Game -- Alabama 22, Georgia 54
Sacks Allowed Per Game -- Georgia 19, Alabama 51
3rd Down Conversions -- Georgia 9, Alabama 35
3rd Down Conversions Allowed -- Georgia 25, Alabama 26
Turnover Margin -- Alabama 5, Georgia 34

Offensive Efficiency (S&P+) --  Georgia 11, Alabama 22
Defensive Efficiency (S&P+) -- Alabama 1, Georgia 11
Special Teams Efficiency (FEI) -- Alabama 15, Georgia 45 

PICK
Alabama has been here before and will not feel any nerves, while Georgia, despite winning big games all season, could be just a tad jittery early. Smart has pushed all of the right buttons this season, but Saban knows a little bit about button pushing himself. Saban will also continue to tell his team that no one thought it should even be in the playoff, and the players should feed off of that the way they did against Clemson. Alabama is laying just over a field goal (3.5), and will get the cover.
ALABAMA 23, GEORGIA 17 

2017 BOWL RECORD
SU 17-20; ATS 18-17-1