College Football Whiparound Week 9

A huge SEC showdown takes place on Saturday when Auburn visits LSU. One thing is certain -- the Tigers will win (Kevin Cox/Getty Images)

(9) Auburn at (2) LSU -- This one looks to be sort of an elimination game in the SEC West, as the loser will have no margin for error in its quest to knock Alabama off the top of the mountain. Auburn has blown 20 point leads in back to back years against the Bayou Bengals, and haven't won in Baton Rouge since 1999. LSU's lethal offense faces what should be its biggest defensive test of the season, but Joe Burrow and his crew have so far made all opposition look silly.Auburn hasn't won in Baton Rouge in 20 years, but has the kind of defense that can throw LSU off of its game. LSU's D isn't nearly as good as in years past, but Auburn is pretty one dimensional with QB Bo Nix unable to throw the football consistently. Tiger Stadium will be absolutely off the chain for this one, especially since it would give LSU huge momentum heading into an off week before facing Alabama.
(13) Wisconsin at (3) Ohio State -- What was supposed to be the Big Ten game of the year to this point won't materialize, because the Badgers didn't hold up their end of the deal. Wisconsin's shocking loss at Illinois took a bit of the shine from this contest, but it is still a big one for both squads. For the Badgers, it's a chance to show that last week was one huge fluke, and for the Buckeyes it's a chance to prove further that they are the most complete team in the nation. The UW defense is legit, and if OSU puts up huge numbers against this group maybe it will stop the naysayers from shouting "who have they played? -- even though their SOS is the best among the top contenders. The Badgers should bring their best to Ohio Stadium -- whether that's enough to topple the Buckeyes remains to be seen.
(8) Notre Dame at (19) Michigan -- The Wolverines came up short a week ago at Penn State, but had a solid second half and nearly tied the game in the final moments before seeing a touchdown dropped in the end zone. UM will attempt to build on that half against the Irish, who come in rested after an off week. This is a great traditional rivalry that doesn't get played enough, so it's nice to see these teams hooking up. Notre Dame has won three of the last four, but the home team has won five in a row. And it would be just like the Wolverines to win a game that no one believes they have a chance to take.
(1) Alabama at Arkansas -- No Tua? Should be no problem for the Tide, which will lean heavily on Najee Harris and Brian Robinson to run the football at an Arkansas defense that ranks 103rd nationally in YPC (4.8). Mac Jones will simply be asked to manage the game in Tagovailoa's absence, and when he throws it will be easy stuff that allows his stunningly deep receiving corps to make plays in space. The Tide have won 11 straight in the series, including six in a row in Fayetteville. 
Boston College at (4) Clemson-- Don't look now, but the Tigers could be rounding into form. That's bad news for an Eagles team that lost starting quarterback Anthony Brown for the season, and which hasn't beaten Clemson on the road since 2007. The Tigers will look to bring a ton of heat at Dennis Grosel, whose head will likely be spinning as he has precious little time to operate. BC ranks 95th in total defense, including 104th against the pass, and could be just the tonic for Trevor Lawrence, who has been up and down in his sophomore campaign. 
(5) Oklahoma at Kansas State -- The Wildcats haven't topped Oklahoma at home since 1996, and have beaten the Sooners just three times anywhere since 2000. KSU has the look of a hard-nosed team, but ranks 90th on defense -- a fact that has the top-ranked Sooners offense licking their chops. KSU tries to make opposing offenses work for everything, but Oklahoma looks to have too much speed and too many athletes for that to happen. KSU did lead for most of the game the last time these teams met in Manhattan before Oklahoma scored the game-winning touchdown with seven seconds left. So maybe that's a ray of hope for the home team.  
(6) Penn State at Michigan State -- Sparty has won five of the last six meetings and always has one out of the blue upset that most don't see coming. Penn State is coming off of an emotional win over Michigan last weekend, a game in which the Wolverines figured some things out against the Nittany Lions defense. Penn State has had problems running the ball the last two weeks and ranks just 55th in rushing offense, so will need to find some holes in a Spartans secondary that has been very forgiving the last three games -- six TDs, one INT, 77.4 completion percentage. Michigan State is plus-5 in turnovers vs Penn State since 2015. 
Washington State at (11) Oregon --The Ducks have won eight of the last 12 meetings, but have dropped four straight to the Cougars. Oregon is coming off a thrilling road victory over Washington and has USC next, so there a chance it could be looking past a Wazzu team that has lost three of its last four -- including losses in both of its prior games against ranked teams. Justin Herbert and Anthony Gordon will take center stage, but Herbert may have the edge going against a pass defense that ranks 113th nationally in yards per pass allowed. A win for the Ducks all but clinches a  Pac-12 North Division title.
California at (12) Utah -- The Pac-12 is supposed to be a finesse league, but this contest should be a throwbck to the days when 17-13 games were the rule and not the exception. The Utes and Bears are each top 30 nationally on defense, but Utah has a big edge on offense with quarterback Tyler Huntley and running back Zack Moss. Cal hasn't scored more than 28 points in a game this season, and has averaged just 13.6 in its last three games. Devon Modster hasn't gotten it done under center in relief of injured Chase Garbers, and the Utes should be able to dictate terms on defense. Utah has won three straight at home in the series and four of the last six meetings. Utah needs to keep winning if it wants to take home the South Division crown, so urgency will be a factor in this one.
(15) Texas at TCU --The Horned Frogs have taken four of the last five contests, and it would be very Texas-like for the Longhorns to drop this game. Nearly all of the numbers point to UT, including efficiency, turnovers and red zone proficiency. That last one especially could loom large as TCU ranks 124th in opponents red zone touchdown percentage (77.8 percent). This has been a second straight underachieving season for TCU, which has had offensive issues galore and hasn't found any kind of consistency from the quarterback spot. Even if Texas isn't sharp for this one, you have to think Sam Ehlinger will make enough plays to get his team through. 
Maryland at (17) Minnesota -- The Gophers have been a force on offense, scoring at least 34 points in six of their seven victories. The defense started off very average but has improved in recent weeks, though the opposition has gotten softer. Maryland should have quarterback Joshua Jackson and tailback Anthony McFarland back for this game, which enhances the offense greatly. The Gophers have won 11 of their last 17 in Minneapolis but lost at home to the Terps in 2017. Minnesota is still looking for national legitimacy but probably won't get it after this week. But looming up ahead is plenty of opportunity -- Penn State at home, and then a road trip to Iowa. If the Gophers come through those games on top, you can bet America will stand up and take notice. 
(20) Iowa at Northwestern --This game was circled by many at the start of the year as a division shaping contest, but the Hawkeyes are the only ones who have actually lived up to expectations. Iowa has its usual stout defense and somewhat plodding offense, but the Wildcats have been abysmal with the football -- 128th in the country in scoring at just 12.5 per game. Iowa is not a team you get healthy against, and you have to wonder if Pat Fitzgerald's troops have started to look ahead to next season. Northwestern has won the last three meetings, all in throwback, defensive fashion, and it will have to hope that the Hawkeyes have another four-turnover contest (as they did in a 10-3 loss to Michigan) if it wants a legit chance at victory.
(21) Appalachian State at South Alabama -- This one screams mismatch -- App State is top 10 in scoring, the Jags are bottom six -- which means maybe there's a tendency to look past the hosts and ahead to rival Georgia Southern. But the Mountaineers are still vying for the G5 NY6 berth, and staying unblemished is the most likely way to snag it. Zac Thomas has been uber efficient running the offense and is the engine that makes the A-Train go. App State is deadly in the red zone, scoring a touchdown on all but three of its 28 trips.
Oklahoma State at (23) Iowa State -- The Cyclones are getting hot at the right time, blowing away their last three foes and sitting squarely in the mix for the Big 12 crown. ISU -- only three points from an unbeaten season -- has allowed just three touchdowns at home this season, but will need to be on point against a Cowboys team that has explosiveness in running back Chuba Hubbard and receiver Tylan Wallace. Iowa State can counter with Brock Purdy, who isn't getting enough love nationally despite ranking fifth in passing, and backfield revelation Breece Hall, who has gone for 100-plus yards in each of the last two games, with five touchdowns. Iowa State should be focused here, as an off week awaits before a season-defining trip to Oklahoma. The home team in this series has won eight of the last 13, usually in high-scoring fashion. 
(24) Arizona State at UCLA -- Typically a hard-fought series -- average margin in the last three games is four points -- this year it's two teams heading opposite directions. Surprisingly, both are .500 in league play. The Sun Devils were embarrassed last week at Utah, but have taken the measure of Cal and Michigan State on the road this season. The Bruins have dropped all three of their contests at home in 2019, by an average of nearly 20 points per game. The defense has been especially bad, allowing 41 plays of 20-plus yards, and has yielded a nation's high 21 touchdowns through the air. Think Jayden Daniels and Brandon Ayiuk aren't salivating at this matchup?

TAKE FIVE (Games Featuring Unranked Teams)
USC at Colorado (Friday) -- If ever the Buffs are going to beat the Trojans, this would be the year. Winless in 13 meetings against USC, Colorado started the season with three wins in four games, including an upset of Arizona State. But the offense has gone south recently, scoring just 13 points in its last two games. USC didn't embarrass itself at Notre Dame (30-27 loss) and blasted an Arizona team that looked to be surging last weekend. But there are still concerns about a defense that has allowed fewer than 20 points just once this season. The four games have been won by an average of 8 points per contest, but the Buffs are just 8-8 at home in their last 16 contests. USC is tied with Utah in the Pac-12 South but has an edge thanks to a head to head victory, so a win here would bring them closer to what many felt was an impossible goal. 
Virginia at Louisville -- Since 2012 Virginia is a shocking 5-25 on the road in ACC play. Despite an active, stellar defense, the Cavs often allow teams to hang around way longer than they should, and the Cardinals are an improving bunch who have broken off 42 plays of 20-plus yards this season. While limited last week against Clemson, Louisville scored 62 against Wake Forest and 41 against Boston College, so there is potential. The problem is a defense that's atrocious -- a defense that Bryce Perkins and his receiving crew can take easy advantage of. Louisville has not allowed fewer than 35 points in Power 5 play this season, so it will have to hope it can outscore the visitors, who still have designs on winning the Coastal Division crown. 
Tulane at Navy - A sneaky good AAC West battle goes down in Annapolis, with the resurgent Middies coming in winning three straight and four of the last five in the series. Quarterback Malcolm Perry has been excellent running the Navy attack, and could find some room against a Tulane rush defense that ranks 59th nationally in YPC allowed (4.02). Navy leads the country in red zone touchdown percentage, scoring 21 times on 22 trips, but the Green Wave have been nearly as good, hitting paydirt 19 times in 23 journeys to the red zone. Tulane ranks in the nation's top 10 in rushing, thanks to dual threat quarterback Justin McMillan (7 rush TDs) and speedy running back Corey Dauphine (10.4 YPC). The winner stays within shouting distance of SMU, who plays these teams in back to back weeks to close out the regular season. 
UCF at Temple -- Another AAC battle, these teams have split the last four meetings. The teams share similar defensive profiles, but the Knights have a decided advantage on offense, ranking top 10 nationally in Yards Per Play. Temple has home victories over Maryland, Georgia Tech and Memphis this season and have won eight of its last 10 home contests dating back to last season. The Owls have been hampered by inconsistent play at quarterback, alternating Anthony Russo and Todd Centaio on an almost weekly basis. Both will play, Centaio is the bigger dual threat. UCF is second nationally in plays of 20-plus yards (54) while Temple has allowed only 24. So something has to give. The winner of this contest stays in the race for East Division honors. 
Utah State at Air Force -- The Falcons looked to be in a potentially tough spot last week at Hawaii, losing quarterback Donald Hammond to injury, but backup Mike Schmidt was fabulous in relief, rushing for 120 yards and three scores and completing five of six passes for 147 yards and a touchdown. Aggies quarterback Jordan Love entered the season with all sorts of buzz, even being talked about as a first-round possibility. His production has not matched the talk, as Love is completing less than 59 percent of his throws and has tossed nine interceptions. Utah State has won four of its last five, including an upset of San Diego State early in the season, on the shoulders of a top 40 defensive unit. The Aggies are 22nd against the run, allowing just 3.19 YPC, but will be tested by an Air Force attack that averages 5.3 YPC and leads the nation in rushing scores with 27. Utah State has been dreadful in the red zone, ranking last in conversion percentage with just 8 touchdowns in 24 trips inside the opponents 20 yard line.

College Football Whiparound Week 6

Auburn heads to Florida to take on the Gators in a battle of SEC unbeatens (Saturday Down South)

(7) Auburn at (10) Florida: Typically a low-scoring, down to the wire contest, this SEC showdown will feature all kinds of defensive stars, and keep one team on the path to an undefeated season. Three of the last five meetings were decided by a field goal. The Gators have won four of the last five in Gainesville, and are tied for second nationally in sacks. That's important because Auburn freshman QB Bo Nix is 99th in the country in passer rating when blitzed, so look for Todd Grantham to bring the heat early and often -- and the Gators can get to the QB, as evidenced by their 24 sacks. Auburn has just one interception on the season and has allowed seven touchdowns through the air, so don't be surprised to see Florida taking some shots early.QB Kyle Trask has filled in nicely for the injured Feleipe Franks, tossing five TDs and completing over 77 percent of his throws.
(23) Michigan State at (4) Ohio State: The Buckeyes have won six of the last seven played in Columbus and 12 of the last 15 meetings, which includes a 48-3 shellacking in 2017. Michigan State just squeaked past Indiana last weekend but could have problems up front as they are down four offensive linemen. It's gotten so bad that defensive lineman JD Duplain has moved over to the offense, and that could be a real problem given the Buckeyes depth and tenacity along the defensive front. While Brian Lewerke leads the league in passing yards, he's completing less than 60 percent of his passes on the season. MSU has found a running threat in freshman Elijah Collins (5.3 YPC), which may help take the air out of the ball. The Buckeyes lead the nation in scoring margin as well as sack rate and stuff rate, so it could be tough going all around for the visitors. 
(14) Iowa at (19) Michigan: Could this be the start of a precipitous slide for the Wolverines? If recent history is any indication UM should be on high alert as the Hawkeyes have won five of the last six meetings, which includes three of the last four in Ann Arbor. Both teams are stout on defense, but the Wolverines have been anemic on offense, averaging just 5.54 yards per play (84th nationally). UM also has just 15 runs of 10+ yards this season and really needs the ground game to get going. The Hawkeyes have been great getting foes off the field, ranking eighth in FBS in opponent third down conversions, and could have success against the pass as they rank in the top 20 in yards allowed and have given up just four touchdowns. 
(3) Georgia at Tennessee: This one should be easy -- the Bulldogs rank among the nation's best in both offense and defense, get after the passer and protect the quarterback as well as any team in the country. The Vols are 88th in total offense and have issues at quarterback, and have won just twice in the last nine contests. There could be a surprise or two as this series has traditionally been close -- other than the last two Georgia blowouts, the previous six meetings had an average MOV of five points. 
Utah State at (5) LSU: The battle of quarterbacks Jordan Love and Joe Burrow should be worth the price of admission, even if the game is likely to be a blowout. LSU has won both prior meetings and is 8-1 against current Mountain West foes. The Tigers are doing things backward this year, touting a red-hot offense (fifth nationally at 7.99 YPP), led by Burrow's 17 touchdown passes. The Aggies are 1-11 the last six years in non-league road games, but could put up some points against an LSU defense that hasn't quite been up to par. Love is completing nearly 65 percent of his passes, but has tossed five INTs to just six touchdowns. The Aggies will have to hope they can run the ball with Jaylen Warren and Gerold Bright, averaging a combined 6 YPC. 
(6) Oklahoma at Kansas: The Jayhawks haven't beaten the Sooners since 1997, the last of three straight victories in the series. Oklahoma is laser-focused and knows that Texas is next up, so it would love nothing more than to make another statement this week. Jalen Hurts is among the Heisman Trophy leaders, but may have shoulder a bit more of the running load if RB Kennedy Brooks is limited (leg injury sustained last week vs Texas Tech). Kansas has its own issues, as leading rusher Khalil Herbert (nearly 9 YPC) is no longer part of the program after deciding to sit out last weekend's loss to TCU. That will put the spotlight on Pooka Williams, who dazzled last year as a freshman but has looked ordinary this year. Oklahoma has averaged 52 points in the last five meetings with Kansas, and shouldn't have much trouble hitting that this weekend. 
Kent State at (8) Wisconsin: The Flashes are 98th in YPP on defense, which means the Badgers should be able to run, pass, kick and crawl their way to a big victory. The Badgers haven't hosted two MAC schools in the same season since 1992, and won both of those big. Wisconsin already has a win over Central Michigan earlier this season, and should be able to use this game as a showcase to get running back Jonathan Taylor back in the Heisman Trophy mix after having one of his least productive games -- relatively speaking -- last week against Northwestern (one TD, 4.83 YPC, the first time this season he's been under 5 YPC). 
Bowling Green at (9) Notre Dame: The Irish have never lost to a MAC team in seven contests, and the first won't come in this meeting with the Falcons. BG is 119th in YPP on offense and 122 on defense, and are outclassed at every turn. The Irish should be able to do whatever they want, though they have had a recent habit of playing down to competition, and beat MAC foe Ball State by just eight points last season.
(11) Texas at West Virginia: The Longhorns have two of the last three played in Morgantown, but come in with a banged-up defense, especially in the secondary. Caden Sterns, Jalen Green and Josh Thompson are all out, Thompson for the rest of the season due to a foot injury. That could mean big things for WVU WR Sam James (26 catches, 1 TD) against a UT pass D that ranks 106th nationally. If Texas can shut down the passing game it will be in good shape because WVU has lacked explosiveness most of the season. The Mountaineers have allowed eight TDs through the air, which should make Devin Duvernay's eyes light up. The senior wideout has 39 grabs and four TDs and has yet to drop a single target this season.
Purdue at (12) Penn State: Purdue will not have quarterback Elijah Sindelar or dynamic wideout Rondale Moore for this game, and they were just about the only chance the Boilermakers had of keeping the contest close. Penn State has won eight straight, with only the 2011 game being less than a one-score contest. This is the last "breather" for the Nittany Lions for awhile as the next three are Iowa, Michigan and Michigan State. Penn State should be able to do what it wants to in this one. 
Cal at (13) Oregon: The Bears lead the series 41-39 but have dropped nine of the last 10, including five straight in Eugene. Both teams play excellent defense -- Oregon ranking fifth nationally in YPP at 3.89 and Cal giving up 4.89. So every yard will have to be earned. The Ducks are much more dynamic on offense, ranking 27th in YPP, and QB Justin Herbert has 14 touchdowns to zero interceptions on the season. So the Bears top-notch secondary will definitely be tested, though LB Evan Weaver will once again be all over the field making just about every tackle. Cal QB Chase Garbers was knocked out of the last game, leaving UCLA transfer Devon Modster in charge. He was just five-of-14 last week against Arizona State, so Justin Wilcox will need to get creative on offense if Cal wants to find the end zone.
(15) Washington at Stanford: Another close Pac-12 series, with the Huskies holding a 43-42-4 edge. Stanford has won four of the last six meetings, and Washington hasn't won in Palo Alto since 2007. Washington has gotten steady, sometimes spectacular, play from QB Jacob Eason, and he could have a big day against a Stanford defense ranked 115th in the country in YPP. Cardinal QB KJ Costello is out, which means Davis Mills gets the start. He's been OK, throwing 4 TDs to just one pick, but can't challenge defenses deep the way Costello can. Stanford averages just 3.59 yards per carry, and the Huskies haven't been very good against the run (7 TDs allowed). So if Stanford can be balanced on offense it could have a puncher's chance to win.
(16) Boise State at UNLV: The Broncos have averaged 44 points per contest in a five-game winning streak, and should once again be able to push the Rebels around. UNLV lacks punch on offense, while Boise brings a ferocious defense to the table. That's not optimum for the home team, which has failed to score more than 17 points in each of the last three games. Boise State has done well getting to the passer (13th nationally) and should have ample opportunity for big plays as UNLV has allowed 22 plays of 20-plus yards and 15 of 30-plus.
(18) UCF at Cincinnati (Oct. 4): The teams have met just four times, the Knights taking each of the last three in convincing fashion. Both squads have been stingy on defense, ranking in the top 30, while the Knights have a decided edge on offense (seventh in FBS). Freshman QB Dillon Gabriel has played beyond his years, tossing 14 TDs to just two picks and showing an affinity for the downfield throw. Cincinnati wants to run the football with Michael Warren III but hasn't been good at it this year, averaging just 4.1 yards per carry as a team. Cincinnati has been stout in the red zone, ranking 14th in opponents scoring percentage, and has allowed just 39 plays of 10-plus yards, 13th best in the nation. That will be challenged mightily by the Knight big play offense, but UCF has been susceptible to the big play, allowing 77 gains of 10-plus yards (113th). Maybe the home atmosphere allows the Bearcats to break a play or two because it's questionable whether they can grind things out against a talented UCF defense. 
(21) Oklahoma State at Texas Tech: The Cowboys have won nine of the last 10 and five in a row in Lubbock, and making things tougher for the Red Raiders is that QB Alan Bowman will be out a few more weeks after suffering a shoulder injury in September. OSU is 14th in the country in YPP (7.04), including averaging over 6 yards per rush. Chuba Hubbard has been a man in the backfield, going over 200 yards three times already this season, and leads the country in yards (938) and touchdowns (10). Quarterback Spencer Sanders hasn't played like a freshman, completing 64.5 percent of his passes and showing an ability to burn teams with his legs (380 yards, 2 TDs).
Tulsa at (24) SMU: The Mustangs are ranked for the first time since 1987, it's last season of competition before getting the death penalty for a pay for play scandal. SMU is doing it on both offense, ranking in the top 35 nationally in both total offense and defense. The addition of Shane Buechele at quarterback has breathed life into the offense. The Mustangs have 25 passing plays over 20 yards and 16 over 30 yards, but Tulsa has been solid against the pass, allowing just four touchdowns on the season. SMU has lost four of the last five meetings, but the home team has won three in a row. A win here sets up the Ponies for a grueling stretch run, with road trips to Houston and Memphis in consecutive weeks beginning in late October.

TAKE FIVE (Games Featuring Unranked Teams)
Baylor at Kansas State: An underrated Big 12 series, the Wildcats lead 9-7 and will look to rebound from last year's narrow 37-34 setback in Waco. Both teams prefer to run the football, but are disciplined when throwing it -- they've combined for 15 TDs and zero interceptions. Baylor ranks 8th in third down conversions while KSU is third in stopping third down conversions, so whichever of those two units wins the battle likely wins the game. 
TCU at Iowa State: The Horned Frogs have won three of the last four meetings in Ames but will have their hands full with a Cyclones bunch that knows it let one slip away last weekend against Baylor. The Cyclones will look to QB Brock Purdy to do damage through the air but could have issues dealing with TCU's lockdown pass D, which is allowing only 50 percent completions and four touchdowns this season. TCU RB Darius Anderson is sixth nationally running the ball and averages over eight yards per pop. The Cyclones are teetering on the brink of irrelevance in the Big 12 with a loss in this game, so expect a renewed focus.
Tulane at Army: The visitor has won four of the last five meetings, but Army has taken four of the last six --so something has to give. The Black Knights are coming off of an idle week while Tulane had a long week after scoring late to knock off Houston Sept. 26th. Both teams are in the top 10 in rushing, but Tulane has been a bit more susceptible to the big play.
Air Force at Navy: Fans love Army-Navy, but this one is a part of the Commander In Chief's trophy, and Navy has taken 11 of the last 15 contests. Both teams have been stout on defense, allowing less than 10 plays of 10+ yards this season, and rank first (Navy) and second in rushing yards per game. Don't be shock if there's a little trickery here and the passing game ends up deciding the contest -- both teams average over 11 yards per attempt.
Western Michigan at Toledo: A MAC West showdown that likely decides the winner of the division, the Broncos and Rockets have staged some shootouts in recent seasons. The Rockets have won seven of the last nine, and both of WMU's losses this season have been away from home. Broncos QB Jon Wassink has already tossed 10 TDs this season and loves pushing the ball downfield. Toledo QB Mitchell Guadagni completes 60 percent of his passes but is dangerous with his legs, averaging six yards per tote. WMU is just 1-3 in the Glass Bowl since 2011.