21 NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS
OFFENSE: SPREAD
There is no
doubting it – Scott Frost knows offense. He engineered a huge turnaround at
UCF, taking an offense that averaged 13.9 ppg the season before he arrived to
28.8 ppg his first year and then 48.2 in the Knights unbeaten 2017 campaign.
Frost does it with tempo, with speed and by using simplicity to his advantage.
These aren’t complex schemes and routes his players run – no, they use limited
formations but run different things off of them. Whether it’s zone read, RPOs,
slants or crosses, there is no shortage of speed in any Frost offense.
What will
make it go this year is Adrian Martinez, who has received some Heisman buzz
after completing nearly 65 percent of his passes and rushing for 629 yards and
eight scores. Martinez should be much more comfortable in year two of running
the show, which means less thinking and more playing. His favorite target will
be JD Spielman, who led receivers in TDs with 8 and was a likely 1,000 yard
player were it not for missing the final two games of the season with injury.
Freshman athlete Wan’Dale Robinson could take the Big Ten by storm after
showcasing his speed in the spring. Look for him to used all over the field –
in patterns, on jet sweeps, from the backfield. He could be Nebraska’s most
dangerous weapon.
The ground
game is a question mark due to the legal status of RB Maurice Washington (455
yards, 3 TDs). If Washington can’t go, JUCO All-America Dedrick Mills is no slouch.
The line returns three, which should help the Huskers master the spread run
game Frost wants to perfect.
Martinez is
the focal point, and if he shines as brightly as many expect it could be an
offensive renaissance in Lincoln.
DEFENSE: 3-4
The defense
was improved over 2017, but still wasn’t very good. It didn’t exert a ton of
pressure on the quarterback and was gashed on the ground to the tune of 5 YPC.
Those numbers have to get better if Nebraska is to truly make a jump. Eric
Chanander prefers to run a 3-4 base, but will sometimes get creative and substitute
a speedy secondary player for a lineman. He figures the more speed he has on D,
the more he can do. He’s aggressive and loves to blitz from myriad angles –
sure, that leaves them open for long gains, but also nets its share of lost
yardage plays. Nebraska must get better at forcing turnovers as it has been
negative in turnover margin for four of the last five seasons.
The Huskers
got a huge boost when DT Darrion Daniels transferred in from Oklahoma State, to
play with younger brother Damion. Darrion takes up a lot of room and allows the
linebackers to flow to the football. Brothers Carlos and Khalil Davis join
Daniels up front to produce what should be the most improved unit on the squad.
LB Mohamed
Barry is one of the best kept secrets in college football despite making 112
stops with nine TFL a year ago. He’s range and active and a perfect fit for the
scheme Chinander favors. JoJo Domann has been moved from safety to linebacker
to better utilize his speed, and Will Honas is a former JUCO AA who could
emerge this season.
DeCaprio
Bootle (39 tackles, 15 PBU) is a star at one corner spot and should be able to
show the way for a somewhat retooled secondary.
BREAKOUT
PERFORMER: LB Will
Honas, who impressed the coaches last season before being out for the year with
injury after four games. He has a high motor and can hit and should bring some
swagger to a defense that is in need of it.
IMPACT
NEWCOMERS: RB
Dedrick Mills (JUCO), DT Darrion Daniels (Oklahoma State transfer), ATH
Wan’Dale Robinson, DT Jahkeem Green, WR Kanawai Noa (California transfer)
TOUGHEST
GAMES: Ohio State (S
28), Northwestern (O 5), at Minnesota (O 12), Wisconsin (N 16), Iowa (N 29)
FUN
NUMBERS: 26.4, the
average starting field position in 2018. That figure was 123rd in
FBS and makes their red zone scoring percentage of 88.6 (27th
nationally) even more impressive.
OVERVIEW:
There has been A LOT
of pushback on the Huskers being viewed as Big Ten title contenders, and that’s
understandable. They won just four games last season, the defense was terrible
– I get it. But I also get this – Nebraska was a MUCh better team the last half
of the year, losing by three to Northwestern, by five to Ohio State and by
three to Iowa. That’s 11 points separating them from a seven-game winning
streak. Year two has always been a big one for Frost-coached teams, and
Nebraska should be much more comfortable without the learning curve of last
year thrown in. It can just go out and play. Getting nearly every tough game at
home actually makes me MORE bullish on the Huskers than most, and it wouldn’t
be a shock if they reached double digits.
22 TEXAS A&M AGGIES
OFFENSE: MULTIPLE/PRO
STYLE
The Aggies have
been thirsting for a return to national prominence, and last year’s 9-win
campaign was the first step toward that. Jimbo Fisher brought a toughness that
was lacking in recent seasons, and the Aggies looked like a more athletic, difficult
to gameplan team. There were still the pro style/power concepts Fisher used so
well at Florida State, but he added in tempo and was able to get his athletes
out in space where they could make explosive plays. Year two in that system
could pay even larger dividends.
A big beneficiary
of Fisher’s presence was QB Kellen Mond, who had previously been considered
little more than an average player. But he took a big jump last year, taking advantage
of his running ability and enhanced decision making to throw for 31 touchdowns
and run for seven more. Mond has a live arm and should catapult to the upper
portion of SEC quarterbacks in 2019.
All of
A&M’s top six wideouts are back, led by Quartney Davis (45 catches, 7 TD). He
has excellent hands and is a good route runner and should be Mond’s favorite
target. Not taking a back seat are Jhamon Ausbon (31 catches) and Kendrick
Rogers (27 catches, 5 TD), who both have excellent run after the catch ability.
Freshmen tight end Baylor Cupp could prove to be a difference-maker from
the beginning with his ability to stretch the middle of the field.
The
offensive line returns three, with right tackle Carson Green the standout.
A&M was proficient on the ground last season, averaging 5.3 YPC, 18th
best in the country. They were also 10th in explosive rushing plays
(11.8) and 21st in rushing yards per game. Jashaun Corbin (346 yards)
will get first crack at things and could take some of the running load off of
Mond. UCF transfer Cordarrian Richardson and freshman Isaiah Spiller could also
be in the mix.
Fisher has
done a great job with quarterbacks in the past, so don’t be surprised if the
Aggies offense turns in to one of the better units in the SEC and the nation.
DEFENSE:
4-3
This is the
side of the ball that could keep the Aggies from reaching their potential. They
improved greatly over 2017, ranking top five against the run in most important
categories. But the pass defense was suspect, and the top six tacklers from last
year are gone.
DT Justin
Madubuike (40 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 5 QBH) looks like a burgeoning star, and
plays with an edge. He’s quick off the ball and a disruptor. There isn’t much
experience around him, though DE Michael Clemons could be in line for a
productive campaign after redshirting last year. The linebackers are all new,
and could be led by former top recruit Anthony Hines, who redshirted in 2018.
The
secondary has experience, led by corner Debione Renfro (37 tackles, 5 PBU) and
rover Charles Oliver (31 tackles, 4 TFL, 8 PBU). JUCO All-America Elijah Blades
should slide in at one safety, and he lives up to the fabled name with his
ability to track the football and bring the pain.
The Aggies
are that rare team that can also win field position with special teams. Punter
Braden Mann was the Ray Guy Award winner and consistently gave the Aggies a
field position advantage. His 50.98 average is an NCAA record.
BREAKOUT
PERFORMER: RB
Jashaun Corbin, the second leading returning rusher on the squad and very good
between the tackles. He brings an attitude to the offense, which is different
in this day and age of finesse. The Aggies should run Mond less than they did
last year, meaning more chances for Corbin.
IMPACT
NEWCOMERS: TE Baylor
Cupp, CB Elijah Blades (JUCO), S Damani Richardson, LB Andre White, Cordarrian
Richardson (UCF transfer)
TOUGHEST
GAMES: at Clemson (S
7), Auburn (S 21), Alabama (O 12), at Georgia (N 23), at LSU (N 30)
FUN
NUMBERS: 50.1, the
record setting punting average for Braden Mann. The figure is the highest in a
single season in NCAA history, and often led to the Aggies defense having a
field position advantage.
OVERVIEW:
There is no question
that Jimbo Fisher is turning the Aggies into a physical team worthy of being
talked about as a contender – next year. There is still not enough depth to
truly be in the picture, and the schedule is absolutely brutal. If this team
had Clemson or Alabama talent it would be top five, but as it stands it’s not
going to be able to go on the road and beat upper echelon teams – yet. There
are still too many questions at linebacker and secondary to get too excited,
though the ceiling for Mond seems limitless after the improvements he made last
season. Once the defense stops giving up big plays it can then be talked about
in reverential terms. For now, we’ll say that this is a stock to hold, with a
huge ROI potential.
23 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
OFFENSE: SPREAD
The Nittany
Lions are a team in transition – again – after losing dynamic quarterback Trace
McSorley to graduation. The wide-open, multiple formation system of Ricky Rahne
remains, but it will be more pass heavy this year with new quarterback Sean
Clifford at the controls. Penn State’s offense faltered a bit in 2018, ranking
45th nationally in total offense and 38th in YPP in the
first year after Saquon Barkley went to the NFL. Now McSorley is gone, and it
feels like the Lions are almost starting over.
Clifford has
the size of a prototype passer (6-2, 218) and is certainly not the runner
McSorley – or expected starter Tommy Stevens – was. He looked good in spring
ball and has excellent decision making skills. The question is whether a
partially rebuilt offensive line can protect him, because he’s not nearly as
elusive or gifted at extending plays. Former top OL recruit Rasheed Walker
could be a boost at left tackle.
Ricky Slade looked
the part of lead back in his freshman season, averaging 5.7 YPC and scoring six
TDs on just 45 totes. He will get the majority of the work this season, but
freshmen Noah Cain and Devyn Ford will make their presence felt. Rahne loves
using his backs as an extension of the passing game, so look for a lot of
screens and flares, especially with an inexperienced quarterback at the
controls.
The receiving
corps is emerging at a top unit, with KJ Hamler on the brink of stardom. The
speedy sophomore caught 42 passes and averaged 18 YPC last year, and is a true
deep threat from the outside. Justin Shorter brought all kinds of accolades to
State College but redshirted last year, and fans are excited to see what he
brings to the field. Tight end Pat Freiermuth looked more like a grizzled
veteran than a nervous freshman, catching 26 passes and finding the end zone
eight times. He will be a favorite red zone target.
DEFENSE:
4-3
The defense is
an attacking, aggressive group with playmakers at every level. The Nittany
Lions led the nation in sacks per game (3.62) and their 47 was the highest of
the James Franklin era. DC Brent Pry loves bringing blitzes and attacking from
all angles, so opponents need to be on high alert.
There are a
lot of standout defensive ends in the Big Ten, and Yetur Gross-Matos sometimes
gets lost in the shuffle. That would be a mistake as he has game-changing ability
(54 tackles, 8 sacks). Robert Windsor is an All-Big Ten type inside, and Shaka Toney
(23 tackles, 5 sacks) may finally emerge after two seasons of teasing his potential.
Micah Parsons
came to Penn State as the top rated linebacker recruit in the nation, and did
not disappoint. He led the Nittany Lions with 83 tackles and was a high-motor
type who showed the ability to run sideline to sideline. He should be even more
destructive in year two. Cam Brown doesn’t get a lot of headlines but is steady
at one outside spot.
The
secondary helped Penn State finish top 10 in most pass defense metrics last
year, including seventh in YPA and eighth in explosive passing plays. Senior John
Reid has been plagued by injuries during his career but brings outstanding
leadership, and safety Garrett Taylor plays more like a corner (7 PBU, 3 INT)
and has great ball-tracking skills.
BREAKOUT
PERFORMER: TE Pat
Freiermuth made a nice splash into Big Ten waters as a freshman, scoring eight
TDs on just 26 catches. He’ll move to the next level due to Penn State’s inexperience
at receiver, and there’s nothing a new QB likes more than a tight end security
blanket.
IMPACT
NEWCOMERS: OT
Rasheed Walker (RS), RB Noah Cain, RB Devyn Ford, LB Brandon Smith, CB Keaton
Ellis, S Jaquan Brisker (JUCO)
TOUGHEST
GAMES: at Iowa (O
12), Michigan (O 19), at Michigan State (O 26), at Minnesota (N 9), at Ohio
State (N 23)
FUN
NUMBERS: 1.5, the
average per game of 30-plus yard gains Penn State allowed last year, 17th
best nationally.
OVERVIEW: I have seen a lot of people putting
tremendous hype into the Nittany Lions this season, some even saying they can
win the league. I disagree, as too many key ingredients are gone from last year
– most notably Trace McSorley. Sure, his passing wasn’t great, but he was a
veteran and a gamer and a winner, and you don’t just replace that overnight.
Which is why Penn State will run the ball more this season – well that, and the
new QB and the fact the receivers had so many drops last season. The defense is
very good and will stay aggressive, and will show the way early while the
offense finds its feet. It seems too much to ask to get through October
unscathed, but if that someone happens then watch out, because it will mean the
Nittany Lions are delivering on their potential a year early.
24 IOWA STATE CYCLONES
OFFENSE: POWER
RUN SPREAD
As long as
Matt Campbell is around, the Cyclones will be competitive. The fourth-year head
coach has put together back-to-back eight win seasons, which on the surface
doesn’t sound like much. But given that ISU has had six such seasons in its history,
including his two, it says just how much of a transformation Campbell has
provided.
The offense
will never wow anyone with tricks or motion, but it will be as physical as they
come. And there is an explosive quality to the passing game, ranking 13th
nationally with an offense that was midpack in passing yardage. The offensive
line returns intact this season, which means Campbell has more trust in the
unit and should be able to utilize a more diverse playbook.
Star running
back David Montgomery is gone, and with him goes his innate ability to make
defenders miss (90 missed tackles in 2018). Replacing him could be a two-man
job, and fortunately for Campbell there appear to be two freshmen ready to handle
the football. Jirehl Brock and Breece Hall were top 30 running back recruits
and should be able to keep the Cyclones power game going. Brock has a bit more
speed while Hall brings more of a power component.
The
receiving corps loses top weapon Hakeem Butler and is largely untested, though
Arkansas transfer La’Michael Pettway could provide a jolt. He’s the type of
bigger receiver Campbell likes to utilize in the vertical passing game, and he
will complement smaller wideouts Tarique Milton and Deshaunte Jones.
Making it
all go is QB Brock Purdy, who was a revelation as a freshman after taking over four
games into the season. Purdy completed 66.4 percent of his passes and tossed 16
touchdowns. He was also an able runner, amassing over 300 yards and five scores
on the ground. Purdy’s YPA of 10.2 was third nationally, and he should be even
better this year as a second-year starter.
DEFENSE: 3-3-5/MULTIPLE
The defense
is sound and doesn’t rely on a ton of blitzing to disrupt opposing offenses.
Guys know where they’re supposed to be and they finish tackles. Iowa State was
a top 10 unit against the run (3.3 YPC) and top 30 in YPP (5.1). This is a
quality unit, one that complements the deliberate very well.
The
defensive line is a gem, with JaQuan Bailey (46 tackles, 14.5 TFL, 8 sacks)
coming from the outside and space-eater Ray Lima (34 tackles, 3.5 TFL) plugging
up the inside. Add in a healthy Eyioma Uwazurike at the end spot opposite Bailey
and you have a nightmare situation for opposing offensive lines.
Mike Rose had
a breakout campaign as a freshman linebacker, making 75 stops and 9 TFL. He has
excellent instincts and a nose for the football and is the anchor of a good
group. Marcel Spears (69 tackles, 8 TFL) doesn’t get enough attention on the
outside.
The secondary
has some youth, but it has drawn praise from the coaches and could be a very
good unit by season’s end. The corners especially must grow this season, but
safety Greg Eisworth lived up to his high rating out of junior college last season,
leading the Cyclones in tackles with 87 and breaking up five passes.
BREAKOUT
PERFORMER: WR
Tarique Milton, a big play type who has flashed potential and should work his
way into prominence this season. With a revamped run game, ISU could throw the
ball a bit more than last year. Milton has the speed to make a real impact for
an offense that isn’t very dynamic.
IMPACT
NEWCOMERS: RB Breece
Hall, RB Jirehl Brock, DE Blake Peterson, WR Leonard Glass
TOUGHEST
GAMES: Iowa (S 14),
TCU (O 5), Oklahoma State (O 26), at Oklahoma (N 9), Texas (N 16)
FUN
NUMBERS: 6.7, the
YPP on first down for Iowa State last year. That was the 20th best
mark in the country, and coupled with allowing just 4.5 YPP on first down
defensively, the +2.2 margin was fifth best in FBS.
OVERVIEW:
Iowa State is
looking to make history with a third straight eight win season, but it will
have to rely on youth if that’s to happen. Vital cogs David Montgomery and
Hakeem Butler are gone from the offense, and they added some life to an
efficient but not terrible explosive unit (26.8 ppg). The good news is that
Purdy returns, and he should be even better than he was as a freshman, which
was pretty good. He has a moxie you don’t see from a lot of young guys,
especially when they’re thrown into the fire right away. The defense is superb,
it plays downhill and brings an attitude. The front seven especially is a
nightmare to deal with, and will keep ISU in every game. November will be make
or break, when we see if the Cyclones can keep up with Oklahoma and Texas in
consecutive weeks. They don’t have the athletes to do it, but they may have the
attitude. Matt Campbell is building something in Ames, that’s for sure.
25 APPALACHIAN STATE MOUNTAINEERS
OFFENSE: SPREAD
What was
previously a fun offense should become hyperfun – new term? – as
former NC State OC Eli Drinkwitz becomes head coach. His offenses were always
fast and took advantage of mismatches, and this should be no different. Of
course, it’s not like App State needed much help in that department after
averaging 37.3 ppg in 2018.
The
Mountaineers have the speediest team in the league, which gives them a leg up,
and it all starts with QB Zac Thomas, who has been a dangerous runner (10 TDs
last year) but who can also sling it around (62.6%, 21 TD, 6 INT). That will
come in handy as Drinkwitz coached teams usually ranked in the top 20 in pass
attempts.
Thomas has a variety of weapons at his disposal, notably Corey Sutton
(44 catches, 17.6, 10 TD), a big, fast target who can run a variety of routes.
The 1-2
punch of Darrynton Evans (1187, 7 TD) and Marcus Williams (561, 4 TD) could be
lethal behind an offensive line that returns largely intact and has all-league
performers in OT Victor Johnson and C Noah Hannon. The dual-threat Thomas is
not only one of the most dangerous players in the conference, but one of the
best run-pass combo quarterbacks in the country. He has a quick release, is
good on intermediate throws and can extend plays with his legs. The offense
will go as far as he can lead it.
DEFENSE: 3-4
You would
think that a defense that ranked in the top 10 nationally wouldn’t need much
help, but it gets it in the form of veteran DC Ted Roof, who helped NC State
become one of the best pass rushing teams in the country. Roof likes to adapt
his defense to the talent, and there is plenty of that in the form of six
holdovers.
LB Akeem
Davis-Gaither (105 tackles, 10 TFL) is the best of the bunch, a kid who is all
over the field and who has excellent instincts. Safety Desmond Franklin (51
tackles, 5 PBU, 4 INT) is an excellent leader in the secondary, and is joined by
underrated Josh Thomas (43 tackles, 4 INT). The defensive front is largely
rebuilt Demetrius Taylor and EJ Scott sliding into open spots.
The D-line
at App State has for years had the responsibility of simply occupying blockers
so that the linbackers and safeties could make tackles. That may change under
Roof, who employs a lot of pre-snap movement to get guys free looks at the
passer. One thing is certain – App State will quickly become the most
aggressive defense in the conference, as that’s the only way Roof knows how to
coach.
BREAKOUT
PERFORMER: WR Malik
Williams, who found the end zone three times last year and could have a more
pronounced role in a new offense that emphasizes the pass more than it has in
previous seasons. Williams is shifts, runs great in-breaking routes and has
excellent hands.
IMPACT
NEWCOMERS: WR
Christian Wells, WR Dashaun Davis, LB Brendan Harrington
TOUGHEST
GAMES: at North
Carolina (S 21), at South Carolina (N 9), at Troy (N 29)
FUN
NUMBERS: 10, the
number of kicks the Mountaineers blocked in 2018. The special teams all around
were excellent as the return units combined for four touchdowns and the punt
return defense was top 15 nationally
OVERVIEW:
A new coach comes to
town in ex-NC State OC Eli Drinkwitz, but the Mountaineers are still the most
talented team in the Sun Belt Conference, and Drinkwitz has shown an ability to
adapt to his talent. It may be a bit more of a passing offense this year, but
that shouldn’t bother Thomas, who has shown himself to be a more than willing
passer. The 1-2 backfield punch of Evans and Williams will control the clock,
and the defense should once again be lights out – though there are a few
concerns in the secondary after losing all-league talents Clifton Duck and Tae
Hayes to the NFL. The D will still be
aggressive and fly to the football. App State has kept foes under 4 YPC for
four straight years, and we’ll see if they can do it again. If this bunch can
win early in Chapel Hill, it could be set up for a run that ends in a New Years
Six bowl game.
26 FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES
OFFENSE: SPREAD
Disaster is
the best way to describe Florida State on offense a year ago. Willie Taggart
came in with a reputation for transforming offenses, but the Seminoles were
mired in the mud all year long. They averaged just 21.9 ppg (113th
nationally), 2.8 YPC (128th) and 7.1 YPA (82nd). There
were breakdowns up front (36 sacks), poor decision making (20-13 TD-INT ratio)
and a complete lack of discipline (9.2 penalties per contest, worst in FBS). It
made Seminoles fans wonder if Taggart was the right hire, whether the spotlight
was too bright for him.
We will find
out this year.
He made a
few pre-emptive coaching staff moves, bringing in Kendal Briles from Houston.
Briles loves tempo and spreading teams out to take advantage of a downhill run
game. There is a lot of play action for when the defense crowds the box, and an
able quarterback can take advantage by hitting plays downfield. It will look
radically different than last year’s attack, but nothing will work if the
offensive line doesn’t improve. Holdover Cole Minshew missed most of the spring
with a neck injury, and right tackle Landon Dickerson was bothered by an ankle
injury that limited him in spring ball. Ryan Roberts brings experience from
Northern Illinois and could slide into the left tackle spot. If this group can
get it together then the ceiling for the offense is unlimited.
James
Blackman should get the starting nod at quarterback, though Alex Hornibrook did
transfer in from Wisconsin to provide some competition. Blackman finally looked
comfortable late in the season and looked comfortable making quick passes in
the spring.
Cam Akers is
a big-time talent at running back, but wasn’t able to find much running room
last year. He had just 706 yards and six touchdowns and never had a chance to
exhibit his open field elusiveness as tacklers were on him almost before he got
the handoff.
Tamorrion
Terry is a rising star at receiver, latching on to 35 passes and scoring eight
TDs. Terry is 6-4, 203 but lightning quick, as his 21.3 YPC shows. DJ Matthews
and Keith Gavin should find increased roles, and tight end Tre McKitty can move
the chains.
It will be
interesting to see how the styles of Briles and Taggart – who favors more power
run – mesh.
DEFENSE:
4-3
Some of
Florida State’s problems on defense were self-inflicted, but some were because
the Seminoles couldn’t put any offense together and went three and out far too
often. That resulted in a tired defense taking the field, and opponents taking
advantage.
The
Seminoles were pretty good against the run (3.5 YPC, 20th
nationally) but mediocre vs the pass (7.1 YPA, 61st), and simply
horrible in keeping teams out of the end zone (31.5 ppg, 90th). The
scheme is aggressive as the line wants to get upfield to impact the
quarterback, but the back end was simply not good last year. That will lead to
some changes this season, notably Levonta Taylor moving from corner to safety.
Junior
Marvin Wilson takes over as the leader of the defensive front, and he’s an
All-America candidate after netting 42 stops and 3.5 sacks as part of a
rotation last season despite missing the run up to the season with a knee
injury.
Dontavius
Jackson is the linchpin of what could be a resurgent linebacking corps. The
senior made 75 stops a year ago, with six TFL, and has the open field speed
fans have come to expect from Florida State linebackers. Hamsah Nasirildeen has
moved from safety, where he led the team with 91 stops, to an outside backer
spot to better take advantage of his speed, quickness in space and hitting
ability.
In the
secondary the parts were better than the sum, though that could change with the
addition of freshman Akeem Dent, who was in for spring and raised a lot of
eyebrows at one safety spot. Stanford Samuels (58 tackles, 4 PBU, 4 INT) and
Asante Samuel Jr (17 tackles, 9 PBU) man the corner spots, and Jaiden
Lars-Woodbey looks to be the next superstar from the defensive backfield. He
made 58 tackles, 3.5 TFL, 8 PBU and 3 QBH, and plays all over the field. He can
cover, play the ball in the air and level the boom on opposing receivers. This
group should be the best part of the Seminoles defense, though if the pass rush
is as anemic as it was last season it may be for naught. FSU allowed 30
touchdown passes in 2018, fifth worst in FBS.
BREAKOUT
PERFORMER: WR
Tamorrion Terry caught eight TDs a season ago, averaging 21.3 YPC on 35 grabs.
That’s a TD every 6 catches, so there is tremendous upside. Terry can run and
isn’t afraid to go up and get the football.
IMPACT
NEWCOMERS: S Akeem
Dent, OG Dontae Lucas, LB Jaleel McRae, QB Alex Hornibrook (Wisconsin transfer)
TOUGHEST
GAMES: vs Boise
State (A 31), at Virginia (S 14), at Clemson (O 12), Syracuse (O 26), Miami (N
2), at Florida (N 30)
FUN
NUMBERS: 35.6, the
average field position for FSU opponent’s last year, the worst in all of FBS.
OVERVIEW:
Now that that’s over
with, it’s time to move on to 2019. Man, was that a disaster. Taggart set the
expectations WAY too high, not knowing he had been dealt a bad hand by Jimbo
Fisher. The previous coach had stopped recruiting, especially on the O-line,
and it showed big time as the Seminoles offense was 124th in
efficiency. There was rampant lack of discipline, no organization – in short,
something that looked nothing like the Florida State football people have come
to know. They’ll improve this season, thanks in large part to a defense that
now has experience and an offense that gets an injection of life from OC Kendal
Briles, who worked wonders at FAU and Houston. The schedule is tricky, so
upward mobility is somewhat limited. But anything less than seven wins – we are
calling for eight – would be viewed as another bad season.
27 MEMPHIS TIGERS
OFFENSE: SPREAD
When people
talk about college football’s most lethal, hard-to-defend offenses, Memphis has
to be in the equation. The Tigers have averaged better than 40 ppg in three of
the last four seasons, including 42.9 last year. Memphis scored 50+ in six
games last season and returns a half dozen starters from that prolific unit.
New OC Kevin
Johns comes over from Texas Tech and will likely run many of the same tempo
concepts he ran under Kliff Kingsbury. Empty backfields, jet and fly sweeps,
creating mismatches with underneath routes, all of those things should be
staples of the Memphis offense.
Making it
all go is junior Brady White, who eclipsed 3200 yards last year and tossed 26
TD passes. His completion percentage wasn’t exactly where you want it for a
quick strike offense (62.8), but should get better since he has more experience.
Only two starters return on the offensive line, and one, Dustin Woodward, is
being moved from guard to center. Dylan Parham is a standout at one guard spot,
and sophomore Obinna Eze could be a breakout star at tackle.
The Tigers
running game was lethal last season with Darrell Henderson averaging nearly 9
yards a pop. Lost among his eye-popping productivity was the fact that Patrick
Taylor added 1122 yards and 16 TDs, and he will take over full time duties in
2019. Taylor is a bigger back but has enough speed to be a home run threat.
Damontie
Coxie may not grab a lot of headlines, but the NFL knows about him after he
grabbed 72 passes for 1174 yards and seven TDs. Coxie is big (6-3, 200),
physical and has excellent run after the catch ability. Pop Williams and
Kedarian Jones will be larger parts of the passing game, and TE Joey Magnifico
(21 catches, 17.3 YPC, 5 TD) is one of the best around.
DEFENSE:
4-3
The defense
was up and down in 2018, allowing 40 points four times but ranking in the top
20 in sacks and tackles for loss. So the Tigers were aggressive, but not always
the best at finishing tackles and games. Too many big plays (71 plays of
20-plus yards) kept too many drives alive, and with two one-point losses could
have been the difference between an 8-5 season and an 10-3 season.
Memphis has
some talent up front as the three returnees combined for 17.5 sacks. End Bryce
Huff was especially disruptive, netting 9.5 sacks and 7 QBH. He’s a high-motor
type who uses speed and quickness to get past blockers. JUCO transfer Everitt
Cunningham could be a difference-maker.
Austin Hall
leads an experience linebacker group, and he meets the criteria of new DC Adam
Fuller, who wants his troops to play fast, tough and smart. Hall made 64
tackles, 7.5 TFL and 6 PBU a year ago and could blossom into an all-league
player. Corner TJ Carter (12 PBU, 2 INT) is a shutdown type outside and safety
Tyrez Lindsey is the team’s leading returning tackler, with 71.
Fuller has
been preaching communication and eye contact, and believes that smart players
know where to line up and will play much smarter football. How complicated he
can be depends on how quickly the unit meshes. There is a lot of veteran
leadership, but playing fast on defense is a new experience, one that won’t be
mastered overnight.
BREAKOUT
PERFORMER: DE Joseph Dorceus – yes, it is odd to
feature this side of the ball given how poorly Memphis played D last season,
but Dorceus is an undersized (6-0) but quick off the edge pass rusher who can
take advantage of offenses keying on all-AAC DE Bryce Huff
IMPACT
NEWCOMERS: DE
Everitt Cunningham (JUCO), DE Cole Mashburn, CB John Broussard (Auburn
transfer), OG Evan Fields (RS)
TOUGHEST
GAMES: Tulane (O
19), at Houston (N 16), at USF (N 23), Cincinnati (N 29)
FUN NUMBERS: 3.5, the average number of gains per
game of 30-plus yards, fifth best in FBS
OVERVIEW:
An abundance of talent
on offense, as well as a scheme that suits that talent, will keep Memphis in
the hunt for a West Division crown. Taylor should explode the way Darrell
Henderson did last season, and Coxie is one of the top wideouts in America. How
far the Tigers go will be up to the defense, as they blew a number of leads
last season and have much of the same personnel back. There is also the matter
of seven new assistant coaches, so you have to wonder a bit how long it will
take everyone to mesh. The November showdown with Houston should be for the
division title, and it may well be first one to 60 wins.
28 MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS
OFFENSE: SPREAD
There was a
lot of ballyhoo in the SEC and in Starkville when Penn State OC Joe Moorhead
was hired to bring the Bulldogs’ offense into the 21st century. He
had inventive ideas, using motion and complex passing schemes that turned out
to be too much for Nick Fitzgerald to handle. MSU completed just 50 percent of
its passes last season and averaged a paltry 7 YPA. Fitzgerald, a wondrous
athlete and great leader, lacked the accuracy and arm strength to make
Moorhead’s offense run as it should.
The passing
issues could be alleviated with Tommy Stevens transferring in from Penn State.
Groomed as the Nittany Lions QB of the future after Trace McSorley left,
Stevens instead departed State College to work with Moorhead. Stevens is a
solid passer but has the wheels to carry the football and is more adept at
making the right reads on RPO plays.
When Stevens
is handing off, the majority of the carries will go to Kylin Hill, who ran for
734 yards and 4 TDs but missed two games. With smoother QB play, Hill should
have more open space to run to. He’ll operate behind a line that includes
all-SEC candidate Darryl Williams at center and junior Greg Eiland at one guard
spot. Moorhead loves the inside power runs, and Hill has the frame to make
those work.
Mississippi
State returns four of its top six receivers, though leading returnee Osiris
Mitchell had just 26 grabs. Big things are expected from Stephen Guidry, who caught
a pass in all but one game but was limited by quarterback play. Kansas State
transfer Isaiah Zuber (52 catches) could breathe life into the air attack, and
JUCO star JaVonta Payton can be a big-time deep threat. How well MSU throws the
ball in 2019 will determine how high the victory ceiling is.
DEFENSE:
4-2-5
It will be
difficult to replace the production of Montez Sweat and Jeffery Simmons, two
athletic freaks who wreaked havoc on opposing backfields last year. Sweat had
11.5 sacks and 7 QBH while Simmons added 15 TFL and 7 QBH. Those two set a
standard that will be difficult to replicate, especially with four new faces
along the defensive front.
Chauncey
Rivers (24 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 4.5 TFL) is the leading breakout candidate up
front, possessing quickness and a relentless motor. Freshman Nathan Pickering
is likely to earn a spot inside and redshirt Fabien Lovett should line up next
to him.
The
linebacking corps is a standout group, with a pair of all-SEC talents in Erroll
Thompson (87 tackles, 5.5 TFL) and Willie Gay (48 tackles, 5 sacks, 5 QBH).
Both are fast, can navigate traffic and finish when they get to the football. Leo
Lewis is no slouch, either, netting 45 tackles and 3 TFL. A deep, talented
group.
The
secondary lost some vital pieces, including ball-hawking safety Johnathan
Abram, but returns corner Cam Dantzler (43 tackles, 9 PBU, 2 INT), who could be
one of the best in the league by the end of the season. He will be the leader
of a talented but untested unit.
With all of
the new faces on D it will be difficult for Mississippi State to duplicate what
it did last year – finish first or second in scoring D (2nd), total
D (1st), YPP (1st), Yards Per Carry (4th),
passing YPA (1st) and QB rating (2nd). This was a man’s
defense, a truly epic group. Veteran DC Bob Shoop always gets the most of his
units, so don’t expect the Bulldogs to fall off completely.
BREAKOUT
PERFORMER: WR
Stephen Guidry, a big play threat who was hamstrung by inconsistency a year
ago. He’s a year older, which means Guidry should be able to get behind
opposing secondaries on a regular basis.
IMPACT
NEWCOMERS: WR Isaiah
Zuber (Kansas State transfer), QB Tommy Stevens (Penn State transfer), DT
Fabien Lovett (RS), OG LaQuinston Sharp (JUCO), DT Nathan Pickering, STAR Fred
Peters (JUCO), WR JaVonta Payton (JUCO)
TOUGHEST
GAMES: at Auburn (S
28), LSU (O 19), at Texas A&M (O 26), Alabama (N 16), Ole Miss (N 28)
FUN
NUMBERS: 12, the
number of touchdowns allowed by Mississippi State in the regular season, the
lowest total nationally since 2012. Second place allowed 19 touchdowns.
OVERVIEW:
You have to wonder
just how good Mississippi State would have been had it had this year’s offense
and last year’s defense. We’re talking historical level D, folks – top five in
nine categories. But three guys are gone from that group, and you don’t just
replace that overnight at places like Mississippi State. There will be some
regression on the stop side, which means it’s maybe a bit fortunate that the
offense should improve. Stevens knows Moorhead’s offense from Penn State, and
is a better thrower than Nick Fitzgerald. But the fact he couldn’t beat out
Sean Clifford is worrisome – just how good is he? He has a great back to work
with in Hill, but the sledding will be tougher with three new O-line starters.
It won’t be impossible to equal last year’s win total, especially since they
get an easier draw out of the East (missing Florida and Georgia), and getting
LSU and Alabama at home. Still, this is probably a slight step back for the
Starkville bunch.
29 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
OFFENSE: PRO
STYLE/MULTIPLE
The Wildcats
have been more grind it out than go for broke on offense, averaging over 28 ppg
just once in the last six seasons. It’s an offense that lacks explosiveness,
ranked 125th in YPP (4.7), but that could change this season with
Clemson transfer Hunter Johnson at quarterback.
Johnson has the size and arm
you love, and he can challenge defenses downfield. His presence alone could
transform Northwestern into a more prolific offense, though the receives had
trouble getting vertical and leaving defenders. It was more crossing routes and
sidline stuff, but maybe that changes with Johnson at the controls.
If Johnson
is to have time to throw it will be because of an improved ground game. Isaiah
Bowser was nice as a freshman (866 yards, 6 TDs), but as a whole the Wildcats were
124th in YPC (3.1), which speaks to both the backs and the O-line.
Only two return up front, so maybe there is more push this season. Tackle
Roshawn Slater was third team all-league a year ago and was one of the only
bright lights of the unit. Redshirt freshman RB Drake Anderson, son of
record-setting NU back Damien Anderson, could work his way into the backfield
rotation.
The
receivers are all good-hands guys, though none are exactly downfield threats.
Bennett Skowronek (45 catches, 3 TD) is the leader of the group and the only
holdover, though the coaches are expecting big things from junior Kyric
McGowan.
Offensive
numbers such as the ones Northwestern are not conducive to success, so they had
to have something more, right? Well, they didn’t turn the ball over (+7 in
turnovers, a positive turnover margin for the seventh straight season) and
didn’t commit drive-killing penalties (25.9 ypg, best figure in America).
That’s a reflection on Fitzgerald and his staff, though at some point the lack
of big plays has to catch up with the Wildcats. Doesn’t it?
DEFENSE:
4-3
The defense
doesn’t make mistakes and is especially good in the red zone (top 40 in
opponents red zone scoring), getting better as the field shrinks. The Wildcats
can be had through the air (64th in YPA), but tighten up when teams
are looking to score.
The top five
tacklers are back, including LBs Blake Gallagher (127, 7.5 TFL) and Paddy
Fisher (116, 4 TFL). Safety JR Pace is a big-time hitter (82 tackles, 7 PBU, 4
INT) and DE Joe Gaziano is underrated as a pass rusher (44 tackles, 7.5 sacks).
Gallagher and Fisher form what may be the best LB tandem in the conference, and
both are sure tacklers.
Northwestern
has held teams below 400 yards total offense in five of the last seven seasons,
and their 5.6 YPP allowed was top 60 nationally. The Wildcats won’t wow you
with speed or movement, but they always line up properly and take good angles
to the football.
BREAKOUT
PERFORMER: CB Greg Newsome, who is expected to
play a big role taking over for the departed Montre Hardage. Newsome had four
PBU in limited action last year and, at 6-1, 182, has the size of a lockdown
corner.
IMPACT
NEWCOMERS: QB Hunter
Johnson (Clemson transfer, RS), OG Sam Stovall (RS), LB Jaylen Rivers (RS), WR
Bryce Kirtz, LB Khalid Jones (RS)
TOUGHEST
GAMES: at Stanford
(A 31), Michigan State (S 21), at Wisconsin (S 28), at Nebraska (O 5), Ohio
State (O 18), Iowa (O 26), Minnesota (N 23)
FUN
NUMBERS: 16, the number
of one possession games Northwestern has won over the four seasons (to just
five losses). They are 45-26 in such contests under Pat Fitzgerald (63.4%).
OVERVIEW:
Northwestern is one
of my favorite teams to follow because they are truly a reflection of their
coach. They play hard-nosed, fundamental football, and they never, ever quit.
That said, it’s difficult to continually win close games. At some point the law
of averages catches up with you –whether or not it’s this year remains to be
seen. But there is some personnel turnover on offense, and the defense was more
gritty than gifted in 2018. Northwestern has stockpiled some pretty good
talent, but the schedule this year is killer, and you have to wonder if the
talent is good enough to hang with the Ohio States and Michigan States of the
football world. The Wildcats will certainly be in the hunt for the West
Division crown, but there appear to be too many landmines to navigate in 2019.
30 VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES
OFFENSE: SPREAD
This is the
year we learn just how good Justin Fuente is – is he an offensive guru, who can
adapt to his surroundings and circumstances, or he is just a guy from a
wide-open, no defense league who doesn’t have the adaptability to make things
work at the Power 5 level? The Coastal Division is wide open, and he has a
second-year starter at QB in Ryan Willis, so Hokies fans had better hope it’s
the latter.
Willis is a
good distributor of the football, quick to make decisions and get the ball out
of his hand. He has a good, not great arm, but his accuracy needs work (58.5%m
24 TD, 9 INT). He is a sneaky good runner, but this season it would be wise for
Tech to focus on its air attack because that’s where the personnel strength is.
Damon
Hazelton (51 catches, 8 TD) may be the statistical leader, but don’t be
surprised if sophomore Tre Turner (26-535-20.6) emerges as a star after an
excellent spring. James Mitchell had a big spring at tight end and will
complement incumbent Dalton Keene (28 catches, 3 TDs), possibly even being on
the field at the same time when Tech goes empty.
The
offensive line was good at run blocking (4.4 YPC) but needs to shore up its
pass blocking acumen (28 sacks allowed). Sophomore tackle Christian Darrisaw
looks like a future star.
There is
depth but no standout in the backfield, and junior Deshawn McClease will likely
get first crack at things. Terius Wheatley and Jalen Holston bring more of a
speed component.
If Fuente
continues to just wing it all over the place without the ability to get
physical from time to time it’s going to be a long season. Defensive
coordinators aren’t dumb, they will figure things out in quick order. If Fuente
doesn’t have a secondary plan then this could fizzle out quickly.
DEFENSE:
4-3
Last year’s
Tech defense was unrecognizable to longtime fans, allowing 31 ppg. That is VERY
much not like a Bud Foster coached unit, but there are a few reasons behind it,
injuries chief among them. There was also a lot of turnover from the season
before and freshmen thrust into roles they weren’t ready for.
On the plus
side, 10 starters are back, and with a return to health this should be more
like a usual Foster defense.
Tech is
strong up the middle, led by linebackers Rayshard Ashby (105 tackles, 8.5 TFL)
and Dax Hollifield (62 tackles, 6 TFL) and safeties Reggie Floyd (88 tackles,
9.5 TFL, 4 QBH) and Divine Deablo (55 tackles, 4.5 TFL). That foundation should
help a defensive line that simply wasn’t very intimidating last year, but could
be better with the addition of JUCO DeShawn Crawford inside. The secondary mined
the JUCO ranks to get Jeremy Webb, who missed all of last season after tearing
his Achilles’. Caleb Farley and Bryce Watts had a trial by fire as rookie
starters, with mixed results. The hope is that the 2018 playing time makes them
better this year.
Foster
announced that this season will be his last at Tech, so it wouldn’t be the
least bit shocking if his players send him out with a bang. The experience
factor cannot be overlooked as Foster had to pare down the playbook last year
with the pervasive youth. He can open it up in 2019, not necessarily getting
fancy but beating teams by shutting down what they do best. That’s what Foster
does, makes you beat Tech left-handed. And he’s done it as well as anyone in recent
memory.
BREAKOUT
PERFORMER: WR Tre
Turner, who hinted at stardom last year by making 16 of his 28 catches over the
last five games. He has size, speed and the ability to go up and get the
football, and he should be a favorite target for Ryan Willis.
IMPACT
NEWCOMERS: OT Doug
Nester, WHIP Brion Murray (JUCO), WR Darryle Simmons (RS), C Will Pritchard, OG
Brock Hoffman (Coastal Carolina transfer), OG Bryan Hudson, DT DaShawn Crawford
(JUCO), CB Jeremy Webb (JUCO)
TOUGHEST
GAMES: at Miami (O
5), at Notre Dame (N 2), at Virginia (N 29)
FUN
NUMBERS: 6.4, YPP
allowed by the Tech defense last year. That was easily the worst performance by
a Bud Foster coached unit.
OVERVIEW:
It’s a big year for
Tech and Fuente because the Coastal is wide open and there for the taking. If
Willis can progress in his second year as a starter, and if Tech can find some
semblance of a ground game, the offense could be pretty good. It may not be
explosive, but it will be good enough to keep the defense off the field for
long stretches. When it is on the field, that defense should be much better
than it was a year ago as wet-behind-the-ears newbies are now experienced
veterans. The depth has been fortified, too, so another spate of injuries
shouldn’t be nearly as onerous. The schedule is quite manageable, which means
that it wouldn’t be the least bit shocking to see the Hokies back in the ACC
Championship game, a place it hasn’t been since 2016.
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