11 MICHIGAN WOLVERINES
OFFENSE: MULTIPLE/SPREAD
We’ve heard
it before, that Michigan was finally going to get away from its deliberate,
power-based offense in favor of something more modern. Then the season starts
and it all goes out the window.
But it may
be more than just talk this year, as the Wolverines brought in Josh Gattis from
Alabama to update the offense. Spring ball was the litmus test, and there was a
stylistic change – no huddle, spread, a lot of quick passing. So maybe, just
maybe, Jim Harbaugh will avoid his compunction to interfere and let the offense
roll.
Any success
of the newfangled offense will be based on how well QB Shea Patterson does.
This type of wide-open scheme fits his skill set better than what Michigan ran
last year. Patterson (2600 yards, 22 TD, 7 INT) is at his best when he’s on the
move, when he can get the ball to playmakers in space rather than going through
progessions. He is the Big Ten’s top rated returning quarterback and could be
in for a big season. Look for Harbaugh to change things up by playing Dylan McCaffrey
at times.
Michigan has
one of the most talented, deepest receiving groups around, and for my money
Nico Collins (38 catches, 16.6 YPC, 6 TD) is the best of the group. He’s big,
can get downfield and makes the tough catch. Donovan Peoples-Jones (47 catches,
8 TD) grabs the headlines and is also an excellent weapon in the return game.
Tarik Black has suffered through two seasons of injuries but could be a big
contributor if healthy. The tight end has always been a big part of the UM
passing attack, and in Sean McKeon and Nick Eubanks are two big targets.
It’s odd to
think that Michigan doesn’t have much of a ground game, but that’s the case
with the departure of Chris Evans. Most of the chores will be left to recruit Zach
Charbonnet, who drew praise in the spring. Christian Turner will also garner
touches.
It wouldn’t
be Michigan without a hefty, mauling offensive line, and this year is no exception.
Michigan was 12th nationally in First Down YPC (5.8), much of due to
tackle Jon Runyan Jr and guard Ben Bredeson, who fortify the left side of the
line. Cesar Ruiz has all-league talent at center.
DEFENSE: 4-3
The Wolverines
have a number of big personnel losses, but unlike the offense will stay the
same – which means aggressive man-to-man on the outside and blitzing and
pressure with the front seven. Michigan was second nationally in opponents
completion percentage (49.5) and top 10 in overall YPP, but could dip just a
little as replacements must be found for DEs Rashan Gary and Chase Winovich, LB
Devin Bush and CB David Long.
This shouldn’t
be too much of a task for DC Don Brown, one of the best defensive architects in
America. He knows who fits where and who is best suited to do what, so you can
bet he’ll have UM up to speed by the season opener.
Kwity Paye
(29 tackles, 5.5 TFL) filled in for Gary at times last season and looks like
the next big UM D-line star. Aidan Hutchinson is an athletic freak on the other
side, and Donovan Jeter looked intimidating inside during spring ball.
Khaleke
Hudson (44 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 3 QBH) leads a rebuilding linebacker crew.
The secondary
still has Lavert Hill (14 tackles, 5 PBU), against whom teams were reluctant to
throw last season. He is an All-Big Ten talent and basically locks down one
side of the field. Josh Metellus (48 tackles, 6 PBU, 3 INT) is a physical
presence at safety and will take up a big leadership role.
Most teams
losing this much top line talent would be downgraded. But Brown has more than
earned the benefit of the doubt, and Michigan should once again be among the
most prolific defensive units in college football.
BREAKOUT
PERFORMER: DE Kwity
Paye, showed late that he can flourish in Brown’s aggressive, attacking scheme.
He has a nastiness to him that sets him apart, and a variety of moves that can
get him free to rush the quarterback.
IMPACT
NEWCOMERS: DE Mike
Danna (Central Michigan transfer), S Daxton Hill, RB Zach Charbonnet, DT Mazi
Smith, WR Mike Sainristil
TOUGHEST
GAMES: Army (S 7),
at Penn State (O 19), Notre Dame (O 26), Michigan State (N 18), Ohio State (N
30)
FUN NUMBERS: Michigan averaged one play every
29.9 seconds, slowest in the Big Ten and ninth slowest nationally. That should
change this year with Gattis running a high-tempo offense.
OVERVIEW:
Truth be told, Jim
Harbaugh hasn’t been bad in his time at Michigan. He just hasn’t lived up to
the expectations many had for him – no league titles, never a player for a CFP
berth, poor record against his rivals (2-6). But this could be the year that
changes as the offensive joins the modern era and puts Patterson’s skill set to
much better use. There are a lot of big losses on the defense, but Don Brown is
one of the craftiest guys around and will figure out whether some tweaks are
needed. Count on UM being it’s usual pressuring bunch. Getting most of its
crucial games at home is a huge plus for the Wolverines, and you can bet that
Harbaugh has a laser focus on Ohio State now that Urban Meyer is gone. Because
if not this year – with a new QB and new HC in Columbus – then when? If
Michigan doesn’t break through this year, it may never happen.
12 NOTRE DAME FIGHTING
IRISH
OFFENSE: SPREAD
It may be overstating
things a bit to say the Irish offense was “transformed” when Ian Book took over
from Brandon Wimbush at quarterback. But there did appear to be a certain calm
under Book, where there was tightness and uncertainty with Wimbush. Much of
that centered on Wimbush’s inability to consistently complete passes. Book hit
the ground running, brought some pop to the passing game and Notre Dame looked
like a high-functioning offense.
Book (2628
yards, 19 TD, 7 INT) is a good decision maker and has the trust of teammates,
which means there should be a nice jump in year two as a starter. Book can
scramble to keep plays alive but running is not his preferred method of moving
the football.
Chase
Claypool (50 catches, 4 TD) and Chris Finke (49 catches, 2 TD) are the top
receiving weapons and very good possession receivers. Kevin Austin has the
speed to get downfield and challenge secondaries. Notre Dame always looks to
the tight end, which means Cole Kmet can expect an uptick in production from
his 10 grabs.
The offensive
line is solid, though a bit below Notre Dame standards. The Irish averaged 6.0
YPP and was middle of the pack in explosive production. A year playing together
should help this group become better. Right guard Tommy Kraemer is a future NFL
star, and left tackle Liam Eichenberg could also blossom this year as a junior.
The ground game
lost the explosive Dexter Williams, but got a benefit from his injury as expected
starter Jafar Armstrong (383 yards, 7 TD) got playing time ahead of schedule.
Armstrong and Tony Jones will be the primary ballcarriers, but freshman Kyren
Williams was in for spring and turned some heads.
DEFENSE: 4-2-5
Year two of
DC Clark Lea could be a step back as a lot of productive talent has departed.
Notre Dame was excellent at limiting explosive plays, but returns just 54
percent of its tackles from last year, and has a pretty large hole in the
linebacker corps. Lea doesn’t blitz as much as predecessor Mike Elko did, but his
group was still able to affect the passer (4th in YPA, 44th
in completion percentage, 34 sacks). Much of that was due to the presence of
shutdown corner Julian Love and tackling machine Te’Von Coney at linebacker.
Finding replacement for those two will be nearly impossible. Lea is big on
accountability and players knowing their assignments, so they can just play.
Asmar Bilal
(50 tackles) is the lone holdover at linebacker, and he’s a heady, instinctive
player. Whether or not he can take a leadership role and help the inexperience
around him remains to be seen. Jordan Genmark Heath could be ready to take a
step forward, and don’t rule out freshman Osita Ekwonu making an early
contribution. Daelin Hayes has experience and will also be in the rotation.
Julian
Okwara (38 tackles, 12.5 TFL, 8 sacks, 21 QBH) can be a game-changer up front
with his speed and athleticism. He typically warrants double-teaming, which
leaves things open for fellow end Khalid Kareem (42 tackles, 10.5 TFL, 5 PBU).
This tandem is a handful and should somewhat ease the transition of the new
personnel.
Safety Alohi
Gilman (95 tackles, 5 PBU, 2 INT) is a sound tackler against the run and also a
force against the passing game. It wouldn’t be any kind of surprise to see
Gilman vault into first-round draft choice discussion with a big senior campaign.
Running mate Jalen Elliott (67 tackles, 7 PBU) is solid, and corner Troy Pride
(47 tackles, 10 PBU) has the size and aggressiveness to flourish at one corner
spot.
BREAKOUT
PERFORMER: RB Jafar
Armstrong, who was part of a rotation with Dexter Williams until being injured.
Armstrong is a traditional Fighting Irish big back (6-1, 220), but has some
shiftiness and wiggle to him. He scored seven times last year and should be a
force with more of the workload in 2019.
IMPACT
NEWCOMERS: OT Quinn
Carroll, NG Jacob Lacey, RB Kyren Williams, C Zeke Correll
TOUGHEST
GAMES: at Georgia (S
21), Virginia (S 28), USC (O 12), at Michigan (O 26), at Stanford (N 30)
FUN
NUMBERS: 7, the
number of consecutive wins for the Irish in one possession games.
OVERVIEW:
Notre Dame was a
surprise participant in last year’s CFP, and though they were blitzed by
Clemson they felt that it was a good first step toward renewing their place in
the college football stratosphere. The question now is, can they continue the
momentum? The defense should be good once again, especially in the secondary.
The offense is a bit more of a question mark as most of the run game departed.
But having Book back for another full season is huge as he more than answered
the call. There is no reason the Irish can’t flirt with a top-10 finish, but
that schedule – if they can win three (or even four) of the five games listed
above it will have been a successful season.
13 WASHINGTON HUSKIES
OFFENSE: SPREAD
Even though
Washington returns two thirds of its offensive production from 2018, certain personnel
losses cannot be overlooked.
All-time rushing
leader Myles Gaskin was a workhorse, a willing blocker and great in the passing
game. He may have lacked home run speed, but was as reliable as they came. Jake
Browning had excellent leadership but regressed, holding the ball too long and
making too many curious throws. Kaleb McGary was a fixture on the O-line but
departed for the NFL.
So the
question is, what do the Huskies do in 2019? With a young defense, does the offense
ramp up and take up some slack? It may have to if Washington is to win the
Pac-12 North and contend for a high national ranking.
Jacob Eason
steps in at quarterback after a redshirt season, and in hindsight it probably was
a good thing he had to sit. It allowed him to absorb the system and get used to
his teammates. He has a much bigger arm than Browning and can challenge defenses
downfield. The question is leadership, can he get his teammates to buy in?
Salvon Ahmed
(608 yards, 7 TD) got playing time last year and was more explosive than Gaskin
(5.8 YPC). He will add a home run threat to a ground attack that was 91st
in explosiveness in 2018.
The offensive
line is one of the best in the country, led by LT Trey Adams and C Nick Harris.
Both are seniors and both are adept at overpowering foes. Left guard Luke
Wattenberg also has all-league potential and beyond.
If
Washington’s offense is to truly go next level it will be because of the wide
receiver group. There is a ton of talent here, but little of it has emerged.
The Huskies typically have one guy they lean on, which makes them easier to
defend at crunch time because defenses take away that guy. That means a lot of
dumpoffs to backs or underneath throws to the tight end. Aaron Fuller
(58 catches, 4 TD) has star potential, Ty Jones (15.8 YPC, 6 TD) has big play
potential and TE Hunter Bryant (11 catches, 21.6 YPC) is healthy after missing
more than half of 2018 with an injury. If redshirts Austin Osborne and Marquis
Spiker can emerge as more than decoys this group can be very valuable to the Huskies
cause.
DEFENSE:
3-4
It isn’t
often that there are questions about a Huskies defense because, well, they’re
the Huskies. Guys go to the NFL, new ones come in and perform. That’s
just what happens. Still, the numbers say that Washington is 130th,
dead last, in returning defensive production – maybe this is the year things
fall off just a little bit? We have faith in DC Jimmy Lake to find the right
pieces, but it could actually take some time for Washington to look like
Washington.
When talking
UW defense you have to start with defensive backs as that is where there is the
most talent. Corner Keith Taylor (15 tackles, 3 PBU) is the latest star in the making
and could follow in the footsteps Byron Murphy and Sidney King and other recent
Huskies DBs who became high NFL draft picks. Taylor is big (6-2, 200), can play
press coverage and has the speed to stay with faster receivers. Safety Elijah
Molden (29 tackles, 5 PBU) is a hitter and nickel Myles Bryant (61 tackles, 6
PBU) is sort of a do-it-all type – a little bit of a hitter, a little bit of a
ballhawk. This unit should once again be very good.
You don’t
just replace a Ben Burr-Kirven (176 tackles), but the Huskies will try their
best. Joe Tryon looks to be the next breakout LB, someone who comes from
relative obscurity to all-Pac 12. Brandon Wellington and Kyler Manu will also
be in the mix, and freshman Laiatu Latu might be too good to keep off the
field.
Benning
Potoa’e is emerging up front and should be the leader of a group that doesn’t
bring much heat but occupies blockers so that the linebackes and safeties can
fill the gaps and make tackles. DE Levi Onwuzurike (34 tackles, 6.5 TFL) is
another who has breakout potential.
Washington
stays fundamental, finishes tackles and does not allow big plays (1st
nationally in explosive plays allowed). The Huskies are a case study for
showing that stats lie, because they allow a ton of completions and don’t make
many negative plays, yet are routinely among the best defensive units in
America. If the youth grows up quickly this bunch could be very good. But even
the best hit a speed bump at some point, and 2019 could be that point for the Huskies
D.
BREAKOUT
PERFORMER: WR Ty
Jones was something of a third wheel last year in a run-heavy attack, but with
strong-armed Jacob Eason at the controls the football will be in the air more
this season. Jones has a big frame and excellent body control, and scored a TD
on every fifth catch in 2018.
IMPACT
NEWCOMERS: QB Dylan
Morris, CB Asa Turner, LB Josh Calvert, RB Cameron Davis, WR Marquis Spiker
(RS)
TOUGHEST
GAMES: at BYU (S
21), at Stanford (O 5), Oregon (O 19), Utah (N 2), Washington State (N 29)
FUN
NUMBERS: 4.67, the
YPP allowed by the Huskies in 2018, making the fourth straight season UW has
allowed fewer than 5 YPP. They also kept explosive plays down, giving up just
one play of 40+ yards, in 918 defensive snaps.
OVERVIEW:
Program
record-holders Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin are gone, so it’s only natural to
assume that the Huskies will take a bit of a dip. But that’s not a given
considering how well Chris Petersen has recruited, and how in tune with the
scheme the players are. They line up, they make the play and do it again. They
know how they’re going to defend you and they do it. We’ll see how creative
they get on offense with so many new pieces, but Eason has the kind of arm that
Browning lacked – one that can push the football down the field. So maybe UW
becomes more of a big play offense and can finish drives (116th last
year). Catching most of the good teams at home will help, but making a push for
the CFP seems just out of reach for a group with only nine returning starters.
14 MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS
OFFENSE:
PRO STYLE/RPO
A lot of
people were under the mistaken impression that Michigan State didn’t want to
play explosive offensive football in 2018. The truth is, it couldn’t. QB Brian
Lewerke was hampered by a shoulder injury for much of the season, allowing
teams to stack the box and stop a ground game that lacked a dynamic running
back.
Lewerke
seemed healthy in the spring, which means there could be more emphasis on the
air attack. There was a good amount of screens and utilization of the backs in
the passing game, which has been a staple of Mark Dantonio teams over the
years. Get a back out in space with the ball, get a couple of huge linemen to
open a hole and bam!, touchdown. Those were in short supply last year, but it
wouldn’t be a surprise if MSU more resembles 2015 team that scored nearly 30
ppg. Lewerke has good zip on the football but still needs to work on reads and
decision-making.
His favorite
target should be reliable Cody White (42 catches, 13.2 YPC), who filled in
admirably for Felton Davis after the latter was injured and out for the year.
White has size (6-3, 214) and is tough to press off the line. Darrell Stewart
had 48 grabs, mostly as a possession receiver, while Jalen Nailor provided the
home run threat (17.2 YPC on 8 catches). Look for him to have an expanded role
in the offense.
Freshman
Anthony Williams should get the nod in the backfield, and at 6-0, 191 he has
the size to play physical and the elusiveness to make defenders miss. Connor
Heyward will also get into the act as a change of pace.
All five members
of the offensive line are back, including standout center Matt Allen and junior
guard Kevin Jarvis. The Spartans line is big and physical and loves nothing
more than to maul opponents. The unit didn’t hold up well in the run game, but
a return to health should change that in 2019.
DEFENSE: 4-3
Michigan
State’s front seven is as nasty and physical as they come, and lost among the
poor record was the fact that the Spartans led the country in rushing defense
(78 YPG) and were second in YPC (2.6). DE Kenny Willekes was in opposing
backfields nearly as much as the quarterback, netting 20.5 TFL, 12 QBH and 8.5
sacks. Willekes has a non-stop motor and the quickness and strength to dominate
the man across from him. But he isn’t the only gem up front. DT Raequan
Williams (53 tackles, 10.5 TFL, 5 PBU) is a pocket-collapser, and the Panasiuk
brothers – end John and tackle Mike – fill out the rotation very well. All four
can get upfield on their own, meaning DC Mike Tressel doesn’t need to blitz
very often.
MLB Joe
Bachie is a tackling machine (102, 8.5 TFL, 5 PBU) who can run straight ahead
or sideline to sideline, and Antjuan Simmons looks to be a burgeoning star on
the outside.
Corner
Josiah Scott played in the final five games last year after recovering from a
knee injury, and emerged as an active corner who can stay with speedy
receivers. Safety David Dowell made 59 stops and is a vital part of stopping
the run game, though he does have bouts with inconsistency.
The Spartans
will once again be defense dominant, but the hope in East Lansing is that it
doesn’t have to carry the entire load.
BREAKOUT
PERFORMER: CB Josiah
Scott, who missed most of last season with injury. The Spartans D has been
nails for many years, and a lot of that is because it has fearless guys in the
back end. Scott is a bit smaller than you’d like (5-10), but can play physical
press coverage and is excellent with the ball in the air.
IMPACT
NEWCOMERS: RB
Anthony Williams, DE Michael Fletcher, WR/DB Julian Barnett
TOUGHEST
GAMES: Arizona State
(S 14), at Northwestern (S 21), at Ohio State (O 5), Penn State (O 26), at
Michigan (N 16)
FUN
NUMBERS: 4.6,
Michigan State’s YPP tally – which ranked 125th nationally and
showed a decided lack of explosiveness.
OVERVIEW:
The less said about
2018 the better. It was a disaster, no matter how you slice it. Coming off a
10-win 2017 a ton was expected from Sparty. Instead, it was a mind-numbingly
bad offense (six games of 20 points or fewer), which wasted a wonderful
defense. Look for the offense to be better – though not great – with the
addition of freshman Williams. Of course, if Lewerke plays again like he did in
2018 it won’t matter. Dantonio reconfigured the offensive staff instead of
firing people, which may not have been the best thing. But if the team responds
and can put up some points, then Michigan State will be in the B1G East
championship mix.
15 ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS
OFFENSE: TRIPLE
OPTION
People took
notice of Army early last season when it took Oklahoma to overtime, in Norman,
before succumbing by a touchdown. The Black Knights held the Sooners to 28
points and 355 yards, well below their season totals, and made a more than
representative showing.
What people
don’t know is that they should have been paying attention long before as Army
has been good for sometime now. How good? The 29 wins over the last three
seasons is the most in a three-year span in school history – and that goes back
to the days of Doc Blanchard and Glenn Davis and Pete Dawkins. What Jeff Monken
has done is nothing short of amazing, and it wouldn’t be the least bit
surprising if Army is once again the class the Group of Five in 2019.
Army’s
attack will once again be led by quarterback Kelvin Hopkins (1017 yards, 17 TD,
6 TD passes), an excellent leader and decision-maker in the Cadets flexbone
option. His ability to hide the football until the final moment is unparalled,
and his running ability in the open field is excellent. He has experience with
him in B-Back Kell Walker (320 yards), who should have a more pronounced role
this season, and new starters in A-Back Artice Hobbs, the fastest back Army has
had in years, and fullback Connor Slomka, who had five TDs last season.
The
offensive line returns three, including standout guard Jaxson Deaton. Army’s line
is undersized, so it’s all about technique and deception. WR Camden Harrison
won’t be used much, but when he is he’s a playmaker – 32.3 YPC on four grabs.
DEFENSE:
3-4
The Cadets
eclipsed 20 sacks for the third straight season, and did so without playing an
attacking style. Army’s D-line is responsible for specific gaps, allowing the
active linebackers to fill. Army allowed just 3.9 YPC last season, the second
time in three seasons it has done so.
LB Cole
Christiansen becomes the leader after the departure of standout James Nachtigal.
Christiansen made 77 stops, including 11 TFL, a year ago and doesn’t allow
himself to get caught up in traffic.
Corner
Elijah Riley (55 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 10 PBU) is a fine cover man who isn’t afraid
to stick his neck in there against the run. Safety Jaylon McClinton is tough,
and field corner Javhari Bourdeau could emerge.
In Army’s
3-4, the outside linebackers are supposed to get around the edges and rush the
passer while the inside linebackers stop the run and cover short passes over
the middle. In Army’s case this isn’t a given. Because the Black Knights
have smart, disciplined players, they can afford to trade off responsibilities
and mix up coverages in the front seven through a variety of formations.
This allows them to bring blitz pressure from many different locations
and angles against many different offensive fronts. This creates
confusion for the offensive line.
BREAKOUT
PERFORMER: A-Back
Artice Hobbs, who has the speed to be a home run threat. He may not get the
carries that Hopkins and Walker amass, but he can bring a component to the
table that most defenses don’t expect – breakaway speed.
IMPACT
NEWCOMERS: Army does
not release the names of recruited cadet-athletes until they arrive on campus
in the summer.
TOUGHEST
GAMES: at Michigan
(S 7), Tulane (O 5), at Air Force (N 2), vs Navy (D 14)
FUN
NUMBERS: Army held
opponents 113 ypg below their average, good for sixth in all of FBS.
OVERVIEW:
It’s nothing short
of miraculous what Jeff Monken has done in his five years at West Point. He’s
taken a team that won six games his first two seasons to one that has 29 wins
the last three years. Opponents know what they’re getting when they face the
Black Knights, yet there is typically nothing they can do about it. Army plays
a sound, physical style of football, but is more athletic than foes expect. If
you aren’t focused and haven’t had the offense drilled into your head you’re
going to make mistakes on defense. And that’s why the game with Michigan is so
intriguing – the Wolverines have just one week to prepare. Even if Army loses
that one, it should still be good enough to snag the G5 designated New Years
Six bowl slot.
16 STANFORD CARDINAL
OFFENSE:
MULTIPLE
Which
Stanford are fans going to get in 2019? The standard two tight, power heavy,
run em over team? Or the one that was successful when it used QB KJ Costello as
a weapon in the pass game? If we had to
guess, we’d pick the latter as the personnel dictates a little more
passing. Stanford had problems up front
last season – partly due to an injury to Walker Little, partly due to a lot of
inexperience – which negated a running game that was expected to be strong. It
didn’t help that Bryce Love was hurt and faded from the Heisman conversation.
Just when it looked like the Cardinal might be grounded by its lack of ground
game, Shaw got creative and used his big-armed quarterback and his big
receiving targets to put up big numbers. Costello is proficient on the deep
ball, and his guy went up and got it more often than not. Stanford was top 30
in most passing metrics and could be good again in that facet, even with some
personnel losses.
Costello is
the main cog in the machine, throwing for over 3500 yards and 29 TDs. His
favorite target is TE Colby Parkinson, the latest in a long line of NFL-ready
Stanford tight ends. Parkinson grabbed 29 passes a year ago, averaging nearly
17 yards per catch and scoring seven touchdowns. The rest of the crew lacks
experience, but have the size you would expect from Stanford. Osiris St Brown
(6-2, 190) and Simi Fehoko (6-4, 210) will roam the outside, and freshmen
Elijah Higgins could be in the mix.
The ground
game will almost certainly be a committee approach, with veteran Cameron
Scarlett (330 yards, 8 TD) leading the way. Junior Trevor Speights and true
freshman Austin Jones, a top 10 prep runner in 2018, could also be factors.
The
aforementioned Little is a huge return up front, and fellow tackle Foster
Sarell returns from a 2018 redshirt. The O-line should be much better this
year, meaning Stanford should have better offensive balance.
DEFENSE:
3-4
Stanford had
been living on defense for years, but the last couple of seasons have seen a
regression. Even with that, the Cardinal
allowed just 22.9 ppg and were excellent in limiting explosive plays. Stanford
seldom blitzes yet managed 36 sacks in 2018, because of strong linebacker play.
Jordan Fox
(61 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 6 QBH) has good quickness and can disrupt the
quarterback, and Casey Toohill could emerge as the other outside backer. Inside
is a lot of inexperience, with Jacob Mangum-Farrar and Curtis Robinson. Both
can drop into coverage and stop underneath routes, a staple of Stanford’s
defense.
Paulson
Adebo (64 tackles, 20 PBU, 4 INT) is All-America caliber at one corner spot,
but the rest of the secondary is largely untested. Stanford usually turns out
solid defensive backs, so has earned the benefit of the doubt.
BREAKOUT
PERFORMER: WR Osiris
St. Brown, who has the size (6-20 to go up and get the ball and is also an
excellent route runner. Seems to run in the family. Costello is excellent on
the deep ball, and St. Brown could be his preferred target.
IMPACT
NEWCOMERS: RB Austin
Jones, WR Elijah Higgins, LB Stephen Herron
TOUGHEST
GAMES: Northwestern
(A 31), at USC (S 7), at UCF (S 14), Oregon (S 21), Washington (O 5), at
Washington State (N 16)
FUN
NUMBERS: 46.7, the
amount of returning tackles for the Cardinal defense. Usually a strength,
Stanford has allowed over 400 yards per game the last two seasons. Young guys
will need to step up to move that number down.
OVERVIEW:
Stanford really
didn’t begin playing well until it ditched the power game in favor of more
passing. People don’t talk about Costello as a top quarterback, but maybe they
should – his 8.6 YPA was among the top 15 nationally, and he has size and
toughness. Believe it or not, Stanford’s best chance at success this year is
moving away from power run to more of a passing attack. You know David Shaw
will never ditch the run, but he is adept at striking an offensive balance. The
defense is where improvement MUST take place, and with just five starters back
that is a concern. Stanford was 82nd in defensive efficiency, which
isn’t good enough for contending teams. This will be a good team, but the
schedule is beyond ridiculous. That alone is enough to temper expectations in
Palo Alto.
17 VIRGINIA CAVALIERS
OFFENSE:
MULTIPLE
Some folks
aren’t as high on Virginia as I am, but my reason for belief is that the
Cavaliers have Bryce Perkins, while others do not. A former JUCO All-America
selection, Perkins brings a confidence, a swagger, to the UVA offense – his
players believe in him. He’s smooth, he can run, he can throw. He’s a
difference-maker, and were it not for some guy named Trevor at Clemson he would
probably be the top QB in the ACC.
Perkins
accounted for 34 TDs last year, 25 through the air. Virginia must replace
running back Jordan Ellis, and at the moment untested PK Kier has the inside
track over Chris Sharp. This would be a bigger concern were Perkins not such a
gifted runner – 923 yards in 2018. Look for him to carry the ball more early in
the season while the backs find their groove.
The line returns mostly intact
and adds former Penn State tackle Alex Gellerstedt to the mix. The group helped
UVA improved its first down YPC numbers, and Virginia ranked 55th nationally
in YPC with 4.5. This RBs may not be an explosive group, but can be an
effective one.
Do-everything
receiver Olamide Zaccheaus (93 catches) has moved on, which means the Virginia
air attack will be more of a group approach. Hasise Dubois had 52 catches and
five scores last year, and he will be helped by speedy Joe Reed (18.6 YPC, 7
TD), emerging sophomore Tavares Kelly and Richmond transfer Dejon Brissett.
OC Robert
Anae has done an excellent job tailoring his system to talent, so you can be
sure he’ll put Perkins in position to win plenty of matchups. If Virginia can
add even a modicum of explosiveness to its offense, watch out.
DEFENSE:
3-4
UVA finally
realized its defensive potential last year, limiting foes to 20.8 ppg and a 5.3
YPP average, good for 44th nationally. The defense has improved each
of the last three sesaons, which is a testament to Bronco Mendenhall and his
attention to detail on that side of the ball. Virginia isn’t the most
aggressive defense you’ll find, but they line up properly, understand their
assignments and finish tackles.
Eight
starters are back, though the two lost – safety Juan Thornhill and linebacker
Chris Peace – were two of the best players on the defense. Replacing them won’t
be easy, but Mendenhall and his staff have done an excellent job with player
development, so it will simply be next man up.
NT Eli
Hanback is sturdy inside and can exert his will on opposing linemen. Jordan
Mack (66 tackles, 6 TFL, 5 QBH and Charles Snowden (61 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 9 QBH,
9 PBU) are standout linebackers, active and instinctive.
The
secondary is excellent, led by All-America candidate Bryce Hall. The senior
made 62 stops, 22 PBU and 2 INT and had a forced incompletion percentage of
40.9, fourth best in the country. He can play press man, off coverage, doesn’t
matter. And he is excellent at tracking the ball. Safety Brenton Nelson is also
a force (41 tackles, 8 PBU) and plays the run very well, and fellow safety Joey
Blount could emerge as an all-league talent in 2019.
Even with
some vital personnel losses, I would expect Virginia to be among the better
defenses in America this season.
BREAKOUT
PERFORMER: LB Noah
Taylor, who was a regular in the rotation by the end of the season and who has
gained the trust of the coaching staff. He’s rangy, is good
sideline-to-sideline and is, like most UVA defenders, fundamentally sound.
IMPACT
NEWCOMERS: WR Dejon
Brissett (Richmond transfer), OT Ja’Quay Hubbard, DE Ben Smiley, NT Jowon
Briggs
TOUGHEST
GAMES: Florida State
(S 14), at Notre Dame (S 28), at Miami (O 11), Virginia Tech (N 29)
FUN
NUMBERS: Virginia
had the highest percentage of interceptions/PBUs in the country in 2018, with
48 percent of its 177 forced incompletions either picked off or defended.
OVERVIEW:
Virginia has started
to play in the image of HC Bronco Mendenhall, who always tended to the
defensive side of things in his time at BYU. The Cavaliers play sticky man
coverage and don’t blitz a ton, but they
do affect the quarterback quite a bit. The offense gets overlooked, but has one
really big plus – Bryce Perkins. His running ability is already
well-documented, but his passing is better than most believe (64.5% in 2018).
He could be in line to take a next-level leap, and that would turn UVA’s
offense into one that’s more explosive than efficient. He has a solid receiving
group to work with, though the O-line wasn’t great last year. If it improves,
and the defense is even average, Virginia can win the Coastal. The big question
is how it performs with expectations.
18 TCU HORNED FROGS
OFFENSE: SPREAD
There is a
lot of speed and talent on the offensive side of the ball, and if it has
returned to health this could be a real rebound season in Fort Worth. TCU was
80th or worse in most offensive categories a year ago, largely
because QB Shawn Robinson was out for the year midway through the season. That
left the offense to untested Mike Collins, and he was not very successful. As
such, TCU became very easy to defend.
There are
still a few concerns at quarterback, but not because of injury. More because of
the unknown. Heading in to fall camp the battle was still raging, between
Kansas State transfer Alex Delton, who is adept at RPOs and running the
football, and redshirt freshman Justin Rogers, a pure passer who came into the
program last season as the highest rated QB recruit in school history.
Whoever
is under center has the luxury of five returning starters up front, including
all-league talents Anthony McKinney at left tackle and Lucas Niang at right
tackle.
The ground
game will be handled by the combo of Sewo Olonilua (635, 2 TD) and Darius
Anderson (598, 3 TD), and junior Emari Demercado was also in line to snag some
carries.
The
receiving corps is deep and talented, and Jalen Reagor (72 catches, 9 TD) is
one of the best in the land. Fast and quick into and out of breaks, Reagor is a
matchup nightmare for most defensive backs. He can stretch the field or go
horizontal and take a slant to the house. Taye Barber (32 catches) should be a
bigger factor this year, with TreVontae Hights, Dylan Thomas, JUCO transfer
Mikel Barkley and sophomore John Stephens adding to the mix.
TCU averaged
31 points or better for four straight years until last year’s injury-ravaged
campaign, in which they managed just 23.5 ppg. The Horned Frogs lacked
explosiveness rushing (112th) and passing (97th), but
should easily bump up those numbers with more athletes and better health.
DEFENSE: 4-2-5
This is why
we are so bullish on the Horned Frogs – even with a slew of injuries they were
still tops in the Big 12 in pass D and total D, and were second vs. the run,
and still top 40 nationally in all three categories. Patterson
tailors the defensive calls to what the offense gives them and fits personnel
accordingly, and coverages adjust on the fly. So he needs smart guys, guys who
can fly to the football. He has those in abundance, and playmakers at every
level.
South
Carolina transfer Shameik Blackshear adds to an already lethal D-line, which
goes three deep in a couple of places. Ochaun Mathis had a great spring and
could be the Ben Banogu rush force, while Corey Bethley (29 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 5
sacks) and Ross Blacklock, who was out for the year in preseason camp, form an
intimidating interior. Heralded recruit Karter Johnson could find himself in the
mix, too.
Linebacker
is manned by a pair of guys moved from safety to take advantage of their speed,
Montrel Wilson, who played one game before injured last year, and Garret Wallow
(72 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 3 QBH), who actually moved back to safety for a couple of
games last year due to injuries in the secondary.
Jeff Gladney
somehow was not an All-Big 12 choice despite making 41 stops, 13 PBU and 2 INT,
but he is as close to a lockdown corner as you’ll find. Julius Lewis emerged in
his first season as a starter with 30 tackles and a pair of picks. Strong
safety Innis Gaines (31 tackles, 6.5 TFL, 6 PBU) is another with all-league
talent, and Vernon Scott (38tackles) picked up the slack after Gaines went down
with injury. Patterson loves for his safeties to be leaders, so either Gaines
or Scott will need to step into that role.
It’s a
testament to Patterson’s coaching acumen that he was able to get the Horned
Frogs to perform so well despite injuries. The upside is that a lot of young
players got playing time, so if there is a repeat in 2019 it won’t be a shock
to their systems. TCU is a study in a defense working together instead of the
front simply rushing the passer, the linebackers cleaning up vs the run and the
secondary battling the pass. It’s beautiful to watch when it’s on.
BREAKOUT
PERFORMER: S Innis
Gaines, who has been good for awhile yet hasn’t made a postseason Big 12 team.
That changes this year. Gaines is good in coverage and can also bring the heat
on blitzes. He’ll be asked to do a lot but should be up to the task.
IMPACT
NEWCOMERS: DE
Shameik Blackshear (South Carolina transfer), DT Karter Johnson, DE Parker
Workman, WR Mikel Barkley (JUCO)
TOUGHEST
GAMES: at Iowa State
(O 5), Texas (O 26), at Oklahoma State (N 2), at Oklahoma (N 23)
FUN NUMBERS: 3.7, the average of points per
scoring opportunity (first downs inside opponents 40) for the Horned Frogs in
2018. That number was 124th in FBS, and a big reason why TCU had six
games of 17 points or less.
OVERVIEW:
Coming off an 11-win
2017, expectations were understandably high in Fort Worth. Then the injuries
started – 20 players were out for the year and 16 more missed at least four games,
making TCU a shell of the team that was expected to go into battle. It lingered
into the spring of 2019, with 22 players missing for various injuries. There
was no spring game, which isn’t optimum. But there are enough guys with playing
experience to overcome that, especially on defense. And that doesn’t even
consider Delton, who may have a limited ceiling but is steady and adds an
excellent running component. TCU never stays down long, though a tough schedule
could limit its Big 12 ascension. Still, expect this to look more like a
typical Gary Patterson team – which means bad news for opposing offenses.
19 SYRACUSE ORANGE
OFFENSE: SPREAD
Syracuse won
10 games for the first time since 2001, and now the question is what does it do
for an encore? The Orange had a ton of experience in 2018, and much of that is
gone. Dino Babers has definitely seen his power run spread system take hold,
but experience at quarterback is a vital component for it to work. Three-year
starter Eric Dungey is gone, so it’s not wrong to have questions whether the
transition to Tommy DeVito will be smooth. Babers is
all about spreading out defenses, creating gaps to run through. It is fast, it
has wide lineman splits, but at its core it’s power football. When a foe has
been gashed enough, it will crowd the box, and that’s when the beauty of the
system pays off, in the form of play action over the top throws. Babers has
actually used it more for quick passing in recent seasons, but that tied in to
the quarterback experience. There may be more of a focus on the run game in
2019, though Babers loves the complex pass route concepts.
DeVito has
the size to stand in the pocket but completed just 50 percent of his throws a
year ago. The receivers are experienced, with Sean Riley (64 catches) the
standout. Nykeim Johnson, Taj Harris and Michigan State transfer Trishton
Jackson add to the group. DeVito was good in a comeback victory over North
Carolina and one of the more heralded signees of the Babers era.
The ground
game is in the capable hands of Moe Neal (869 yards, 5 TD) and Oklahoma
transfer Abdul Adams, but you may see less quarterback run as DeVito is not
nearly as well equipped for that as Dungey was. The offensive line is largely
new, though South Alabama grad transfer Ryan Alexander brings experience and
nastiness.
If Babers
can tweak his system just a tad to focus more on the ground game Syracuse could
be very dangerous.
DEFENSE: 4-2-5/4-3
The Orange
have an aggressive defense, with designs on making big plays and getting the
ball back for the offense. There was some good to that in 2018 – 43 sacks, +13
in turnovers – and some bad – 90th in percentage of explosive run
plays and 78th in percentage of explosive pass plays. So there’s
give and take, and DC Brian Ward has to decide if that’s a good approach this
year with a radically younger offense.
You know
Syracuse will once again come after the passer, and in Alton Robinson and
Kendall Coleman (10 sacks each) they have two of the best bookends in the
nation. Both are quick off the line and strong enough to push opposing blockers
backward. They may have just a bit more trouble getting free as the interior
loses mammoth DT Chris Slayton.
The
secondary is the strength of the defense, with sophomore safety Andre Cisco
coming off an All-America freshman campaign in which he had 60 tackles, 11 PBU
and 7 INT. Classmate Trill Williams could be in line for a big jump after being
mostly a rotational player last season as Syracuse’s nickel is usually around
the football. Evan Foster (86 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 4 PBU) brings experience and
physical play to the table. Corners Christopher Fredrick and Scoop Bradshaw are
reliable and solid tacklers.
The
linebacking corps is new, though Andrew Armstrong got his feet wet last year to
the tune of 45 tackles. Tyrell Richards and Lakiem Williams will also be in the
mix.
BREAKOUT
PERFORMER: NB Trill
Williams, who should thrive in a system designed for the back seven to make
tackles (top three returnees are all DBs). Tall and physical, Williams may be
asked to play more coverage this season rather than roam around as a tackling
machine.
IMPACT
NEWCOMERS: LB Mikel
Jones, S Cornelius Nunn, WR Courtney Jackson, WR Trishton Jackson (Michigan
State transfer ’18, RS), RB Abdul Adams (Oklahoma transfer ’18, RS), OT Ryan
Alexander (South Alabama transfer)
TOUGHEST
GAMES: Clemson (S
14), at NC State (O 10), at Florida State (O 26)
FUN
NUMBERS: 7.6, the
field position advantage Syracuse created with its special teams, second best
in FBS. Its average starting field position was 35.0 while opponents were 27.4.
OVERVIEW:
Now is when we see
whether last year’s 10-win campaign was a fluke or the start of something big
for the Orange. Babers has gotten it done with experienced teams, but this one
is young, especially at the all-important quarterback position. Can Syracuse
thrive without veterans showing the way? That’s the big question. The defense
isn’t bad but sometimes takes a few too many risks. But when Syracuse is firing
on D – they’re great at impacting the quarterback – they can be really tough to
beat. If they can be a little less vanilla on D and change things up with
better personnel it could be another banner season. We feel a slight step back,
though the Orange will still be a tough out.
20 HOUSTON COUGARS
OFFENSE:
AIR RAID
Houston knew
what it was getting when it hired Dana Holgorsen away from West Virginia – an
innovative offensive mind who can just as easily run a power attack as he can a
five-wide spread passing scheme. Holgorsen has put points on the board at every
stop, and this one should be no different – especially since the Cougars return
some of the best skill position players in the league.
THE
best of them all is QB D’Eriq King, who was responsible for 50 touchdowns
before injuring his knee late in the season. King has a rifle arm, quick release
and can also run the ball (674 yards, 14 TD), and has the football IQ to run
Holgorsen’s simple-looking but complicated system. It’s get the ball out and
let guys make plays, and King should thrive in that attack.
Patrick Carr
and Texas transfer Kyle Porter should be a solid 1-2 punch in the backfield.
Carr netted 873 yards while Porter was a big time recruit coming out of high school
in 2015. Carr is a bit more speed, Porter power, but both will be asked to
catch the football.
Speaking of
catching footballs, Houston could have the deepest stable of receivers in the
AAC, and one of the better collections nationally. Marquez Stevenson (75
catches, 9 TD) is the best of the group, but Keith Corbin (40 catches, 17.3
YPC, 10 TD) and Courtney Lark (35 catches, 5 TD) will also be heard from.
Bryson Smith and Jeremy Singleton should also be heard from in the Cougars wide
open attack.
Left tackle
Josh Jones anchors a line that was surprisingly good on the run (5.3 YPC) but
not nearly as good for the pass (30 sacks allowed). Some of that was King
holding the ball too long at times, but a lot of it was a bunch of brand new
starters lacking cohesion. That should be less of an issue in 2019.
DEFENSE: 4-2-5
There’s no
way to sugarcoat it – Houston’s defense was legendarily bad. The Cougars set
school records for most points allowed (483), total yards (6,454) and
touchdowns (42). It won’t matter how good the offense is if the defense can’t
stop anyone. So gone is the 3-4 approach of last year, replaced by a four-man front
that will alternate between two linebackers/five DBs and three linebackers. It
will help against the run (4.7 YPC, highest figure in seven seasons) and speed
at linebacker should make for a more aggressive, attacking style.
Blake Young
and Aymiel Fleming inherit inside roles, but both were merely rotational
players last season. Houston mined the JUCO ranks for talent, and DE Taures
Payne could be an instant impact type. Isaiah Chambers started hot last year
with 4.5 sacks before missing the final eight contests with a knee injury.
The
linebacking corps is new, and JUCO first team all-region choice Terrance
Edgeston is the best of the group.
In Deontay
Anderson (72 tackles, 5 PBU) and Gleson Sprewell (81 tackles, 6 PBU, 3 INT) the
Cougars have two of the best safeties around. Both can hit and are leaders,
which is good since the rest of the secondary is inexperienced. JUCO
All-America Damarion Williams should occupy one corner spot, but the other is
up for grabs.
If the
Cougars have even average improvement they will be much tougher to deal with
defensively. There is a worry that Holgorsen hasn’t paid attention to defense anywhere
he’s been, so we’ll see if Houston can buck that trend.
BREAKOUT
PERFORMER: WR Courtney Lark, who missed the last
four games of 2018 with a knee injury yet still managed to score five times and
average over 15 YPC. He is one of many targets in Houston’s high-tempo passing
game, and there are times he will be overlooked and make opponents pay for it.
IMPACT
NEWCOMERS: DE Taures
Payne, LB Terrance Edgeston (JUCO), CB Damarion Williams (JUCO), OG Justin
Murphy (UCLA transfer), RB Kyle Porter (Texas transfer)
TOUGHEST
GAMES: at Oklahoma
(S 1), Washington State (S 13), Cincinnati (O 12), at UCF (N 2), Memphis (N 16)
FUN
NUMBERS: 1085, the
number of plays the Houston defense faced in 2018. No one faced more, and that
could have had a hand in Houston allowing 5.95 YPP, tied for 90th in
FBS.
OVERVIEW:
Injuries decimated
the Cougars late last season, to the point that the 70-14 Armed Forces Bowl
loss to Army wasn’t terribly surprising. Without King the offense had no rhyme
or reason, so keeping him healthy is paramount in anything Houston wants to
achieve this year. Holgorsen is a crafty veteran who know doubt has a few
tricks up his sleeve, and this offense could be even better than last year’s
(43.9), which would be saying something. King will be a Heisman candidate and
guide an offense with eight returning starters, and the Cougars will shore up
their defensive woes enough to win double-digit games for the first time since
2015.
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