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| Utah's Bradlee Anae (Utah Athletics) |
If it happens, it will be because of defense -- yes, you heard that right. Defense. In the Pac-12.
Sometimes lumped in with the Big 12 as a stop-challenged league, the Pac-12 had six teams finish among the nation's top 50 defenses in 2018. That means fewer eye-popping scores, but better games, too -- games that come down to a late stop.
That defensive mindset is seen at the top of both divisions, starting with Oregon. The Ducks have an embarrassment of riches on the stop side, including a great linebacking corps and one of the best secondaries in the conference. Quarterback Justin Herbert could be in the Heisman mix if his teammates can catch the football, but he should have all the time in the world to operate behind the most experienced (153 career starts) -- and one of the best -- offensive line in college football. The schedule, however, is brutal, with trips to Stanford, Washington and Arizona State, and a spicy neutral site opener against Auburn.
Chris Petersen has built his reputation as one of the best coaches in America, and if Washington is to contend for national honors then it will be one of his best coaching jobs. Don't get it wrong -- the Huskies have talent. But so much of it is unknown, starting with quarterback Jacob Eason, last of Georgia. To hear Internet chatter, Eason is somewhere between Tom Brady and a third-stringer, so it's anyone's guess what UW will get. The though here is that he struggles a little early, finds his footing and becomes good. He has a solid receiving corps, led by Aaron Fuller, and running back Salvon Ahmed appears ready to burst into the spotlight. The defense, typically a strong suit, must be rebuilt as only two starters are back. Trips to BYU and Stanford could be tricky, but the Huskies get Oregon, Utah and Washington State at home.
Tell people that David Shaw is one of the 10 best coaches in America and you often get an eye roll. He's won 82 games in eight years and recruits at a high level, something that isn't easy given Stanford's academic requirements. Like Petersen, Shaw will have to dip deep into his coaching bag as only nine starters return. However, Stanford is set at quarterback with underrated KJ Costello. He'll have to be good behind a rebuilt offensive line and new skill position players. The defense was solid, not great, in 2018, but has some good building blocks, notably corner Paulson Adebo (4 INTs, 20 PBU). Stanford travels to UCF and Wazzu, but gets Oregon, Washington, Cal and Notre Dame at home.
California is one of the teams that has made itself over with a defensive mentality, and that stems from head coach Justin Wilcox. The Bears were 15th nationally in total D, playing aggressive, and sometimes risky, but the personnel is there to do that. A loaded secondary and standout linebackers, led by tackling machine Evan Weaver (159 stops), means tough sledding for opposing offenses. Cal was inconsistent on offense a year ago and will need to get better if it wants to truly break through. The Bears must go to Washington, Oregon, Utah and Stanford, so it wouldn't be shocking if the team is better but the record is the same as last year, or possibly a touch worse.
Quarterback whisperer Mike Leach will need to do it again if Washington State is to replicate last year's double-digit win campaign. Gardner Minshew set records as a transfer, and Leach hopes Eastern Washington transfer Gage Gubrud can be just as potent under center this year. The Cougars played with fire and came out unscathed on a few occasions last year, beating Utah, Stanford and Cal by a total of 13 points. It's unclear whether or not Wazzu can repeat that magic, but it should be the most entertaining offense in the league with Gubrud throwing to Dezmon Patmon and Tay Martin, among others. The defense is talented but returns only five starters, and was dealt a blow when hard-hitting safety Jalen Thompson was declared ineligible and left the program. Wazzu goes to Utah, Oregon, Cal and Washington, so winning the North could be a very tall order.
Baby steps are being made at Oregon State as the talent gets better. The Beavers won't contend this year, but have a couple of stars in running back Jermar Jefferson (1414 yards, 12 TDs as a frosh) and receiver Isaiah Hodgins. If quarterback play is decent the Beavers could put up some points. The defense allowed over 45 ppg last year but that will almost certainly decline with the addition of transfers DE Addison Gumbs (Oklahoma0 and LB Avery Roberts (Nebraska). The secondary made too many tackles last year, so its up to the front seven to pull its weight -- and reduce its ghastly 6.4 ypc allowed against the run.
There likely won't be much drama in the South as Utah appears to be a cut above the rest.
The Utes bumped their head in back to back losses against Washington and Washington State, then proceeded to reel off four straight games of 40 or more points. Then injuries to QB Tyler Huntley and RB Zack Moss brought things to a halt. Utah still made the Pac-12 title game, but was a shell of itself and lost 10-3 to Washington. This could be the year the Utes break through as Huntley and Moss are both healthy, and the offense should get a boost with new OC Andy Ludwig calling the shots. Look for Utah to average over 30 ppg for the first time since 2015. Defense is where this team will really shine, though. Jaylon Johnson and Julian Blackmon (5 combined INTs and 14 PBUs) lead the secondary, Penn State transfer Manny Bowen should have a big year at linebacker and beast Bradlee Anae leads a line that had 16 of the Utes 37 sacks. The schedule is tricky, opening at BYU, and the road takes the Utes to USC and Washington. They skip Oregon and Stanford and get Washington State at home, so a run at the Pac-12 crown and more could be on tap for Kyle Whittingham's bunch.
Talent isn't an issue for USC, as it consistently is among the best in the league in that department. Using that talent is another story, which is why Clay Helton is on the hottest of seats heading into 2019. The Trojans offense was abysmal last year, averaging just 26 ppg, and the defense gave up 27 ppg -- not a recipe for success. QB JT Daniels is a year older and, presumably, better, and he has a lethal group of wideouts to throw to in Tyler Vaughns, Michael Pittman Jr and Amon-Ra St. Brown. The running game has to crank up if USC is to reach its goals, however. The defense has a few difference-makers, notably DE Christian Rector and LB Palaie Gaoteote, and should get a boost from an influx of talented freshmen, including DE Drake Jackson and CB Chris Steele. A tough schedule -- which opens with Fresno State and Stanford and takes the Trojans to BYU, Washington and Cal -- could put USC behind the eight ball quickly. But if the young guys play with enthusiasm and can find themselves early, a return to prominence would not be shocking.
Year one of the Herm Edwards era went better than almost anyone could have imagined, but year two is where we find out if Arizona State is for real. A makeover at quarterback could be minimized by the presence of All-America RB Eno Benjamin and a standout O-line which returns four starters. The defense cut its points allowed by over a touchdown last year and could be just as good this season thanks to the 1-2 linebacker punch of Merlin Robertson (Pac 12 Frosh of the Year) and Darien Butler. Chase Lucas is a hitter in the secondary, and this team will gain its identity with defense. Trips to Michigan State, Cal and Utah could be an issue.
There is optimism in Westwood thanks to a fairly strong finish by UCLA in 2018. True, the Bruins lost two of their last three, but one was by a field goal at Arizona State and the other was by a touchdown to a much better Stanford team. A win over USC was in the middle of that, and Chip Kelly seems to have the players he wants running his offense now. It all starts with running back Joshua Kelley (1243, 12 TDs) and a young but talented receiving corps that got its feet wet last season. If quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson improves his accuracy this group could take off. The defense improved a bit after switching to a 3-4, and that should continue with 10 starters returning. The best of the bunch could be LB Krys Barnes, who will be joined by corner Darnay Holmes Jr and safety Quentin Lake. We'll know early about the Bruins, who face Cincinnati, San Diego State and Oklahoma in non-league play, and travel to Wazzu, Stanford, Utah and USC. The record may not show it, but this team is getting better.
Arizona is a true wildcard in the South. The Wildcats could be really good, or could have a repeat of 2018, where injuries and inconsistencies killed momentum. It all rests of the arm (and legs) of quarterback Khalil Tate, a dynamic force who was limited last year by an ankle injury, and a coaching decision that asked him to run less and stay in the pocket more -- how did that work out? Now healthy, Tate should be able to operate as his usual self. He has RB JJ Taylor to lighten his load and an offensive line with four returning starters. The defense could be very good thanks to linebackers Tony Fields and Colin Schooler, who both run sideline to sideline and find the football with regularity. Arizona gets Washington and Utah at home but must go to Stanford and Oregon.
Mel Tucker is the new sheriff in town in Boulder, and he's looking to make Colorado tougher in every aspect. The ex-Georgia DC has a bunch of gritty defenders, led by LBs Nate Landman (104 tackles, 11 TFL) and Davion Taylor, and corner Delrick Abrams is a standout for a secondary that was burned far too often last season. That group is Tucker's area of expertise, so it should improve. Steven Montez is back at quarterback, and he's blessed with one of the best receivers in the country in Laviska Shenault Jr (86-1011-8 in just eight games). If the O-line can protect the Buffs should be more lethal with the football. Colorado hosts Nebraska early and Stanford and Washington late, but must go to Oregon, Wazzu and Utah.
PAC-12 PREDICTIONS
NORTH
1 Oregon (10-3, 7-2)*R
2 Washington (9-3, 6-3)*R
2 Stanford (9-3, 6-3)*R
4 California (8-4, 5-4)*R
4 Washington State (7-5, 5-4)*R
6 Oregon State (3-9, 1-8)
SOUTH
1 Utah (12-1, 8-1)*R
2 USC (7-5, 5-4)*
3 Arizona State (6-6, 4-5)*
4 UCLA (5-7, 3-6)
5 Arizona (4-8, 2-7)
6 Colorado (3-9, 2-7)
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Utah over Oregon
* Bowl participant
R CFB Focus Top 40 team
ALL PAC-12
FIRST TEAM OFFENSE
QB Justin Herbert/Oregon
RB Eno Benjamin/Arizona State
RB Jermar Jefferson/Oregon State
WR Laviska Shenault Jr/Colorado
WR Michael Pittman Jr/USC
WR Aaron Fuller/Washington
TE Colby Parkinson/Stanford
OT Penei Sewell/Oregon
OT Walker Little/Stanford
OG Shane Lemieux/Oregon
OG Gus Lavaka/Oregon State
C Nick Harris/Washington
FIRST TEAM DEFENSE
DE Bradlee Anae/Utah
DE Luc Bequette/California
DT Leki Fotu/Utah
DT Jay Tufele/USC
LB Evan Weaver/California
LB Troy Dye/Oregon
LB Merlin Robertson/Arizona State
CB Paulson Adebo/Stanford
CB Jaylon Johnson/Utah
S Jevon Holland/Oregon
S Ashtyn Davis/California
FIRST TEAM SPECIALISTS
K Jet Toner/Stanford
P Steven Coutts/California
RS Britain Covey/Utah
SECOND TEAM OFFENSE
QB KJ Costello/Stanford
RB Zack Moss/Utah
RB Joshua Kelley/UCLA
WR Dezmon Patmon/Washington State
WR Isaiah Hodgins/Oregon State
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown/USC
TE Hunter Bryant/Washington
OT Trey Adams/Washington
OT Calvin Throckmorton/Oregon
OG Luke Wattenberg/Washington
OG Chris Murray/UCLA
C Cohl Cabral/Arizona State
SECOND TEAM DEFENSE
DE Mustafa Johnson/Colorado
DE Jermayne Lole/Arizona State
DT Jordon Scott/Oregon
DT John Penisini/Utah
LB Colin Schooler/Arizona
LB Nate Landman/Colorado
LB Jahad Woods/Washington State
CB Thomas Graham/Oregon
CB Myles Bryant/Washington
S Julian Blackmon/Utah
S Jaylinn Hawkins/California
SECOND TEAM SPECIALISTS
K Brandon Ruiz/Arizona State
P Oscar Draguicevich/Washington State
RS Travell Harris/Washington State
OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Justin Herbert
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Evan Weaver
COACH OF THE YEAR: Kyle Whittingham/Utah
TOP NEWCOMER: CB Chris Steele/USC
TOP FIVE GAMES (NONCONFERENCE)
Utah at Brigham Young (Aug. 29)
Oregon vs Auburn (Arlington, Texas) (Aug. 31)
Oklahoma at UCLA (Sept. 14)
Stanford at UCF (Sept. 14)
USC at Notre Dame (Oct. 12)
TOP FIVE GAMES (CONFERENCE)
Utah at USC (Sept. 20)
Washington at Stanford (Oct. 5)
Oregon at Washington (Oct. 19)
Utah at Washington (Nov. 2)
California at Stanford (Nov. 23)
TOP FIVE INCOMING FRESHMEN
DE Kayvon Thibodeaux/Oregon
CB Chris Steele/USC
DE Drake Jackson/USC
QB Jayden Daniels/Arizona State
OT Sean Rhyan/UCLA
TOP FIVE TRANSFERS
LB Manny Bowen/Utah (Penn State)
WR Juwan Johnson/Oregon (Penn State)
QB Gage Gubrud/Washington State (Eastern Washington)
QB Jacob Eason/Washington (Georgia)
DE Addison Gumbs/Oregon State (Oklahoma)
TOP FIVE JUCO TRANSFERS
LB Kuony Deng/California
WR Jaylen Erwin/UCLA
OT Paiton Fears/Arizona
CB Derrick Langford/Washington State
LB Jash Allen/Colorado
