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| Kelvin Hopkins (San Francisco Chronicle) |
That lot has dwindled, however, down to a half-dozen, and it's not inconceivable to think that Independents could be a thing of the past in the next 10 or so years, given how much money can be made from conference affiliation -- even if you're bad.
In most years Notre Dame would show the way, but this isn't most years -- and Army's Jeff Monken isn't most coaches, either. What he's done with the Black Knights is nothing short of miraculous. He's molded a team that won six games his first two seasons into one that has been victorious 29 times in the last three years. Army comes into the year with nine straight wins and isn't shying away from the big-time. Army will travel to Ann Arbor to face Michigan in early September, a game that could be fraught with peril for the Wolverines as they have only one week to practice against the vaunted triple option flexbone and the precision with which Army runs it. QB Kelvin Hopkins is as adept a decision-maker as Army has had in years, and tough, too - he carried the ball over 200 times last year and could do more of the same this season. He and talented slotback Kell Walker will form a lethal 1-2 punch against any defense. The defense may regress as it lost its DC and returns just four starters. Still, Army is very much in the running for the Group of Five's coveted New Years Six spot.
Brian Kelly should be happy about last year's season after his Irish went 12-1 and made the College Football Playoff. But it was the way that "1" happened that has him in a quandary. Notre Dame was throttled by Clemson 30-3 and looked for all the world like a high school team. It lacked the speed on the edges and the power inside to counteract Clemson's attack, and was sent home whimpering like a whipped dog. But there is optimism for this year, thanks in large part to the return of QB Ian Book, who provided stability after taking over for the erratic Brandon Wimbush. Book has a nice contingent of targets at his disposal, notably Chase Claypool and Chris Finke, and an offensive line that should be able to maul foes. The defense could be a worry with only three starters back, though one is burgeoning star Julian Okwara at one end spot. ND travels to Georgia, Michigan and Stanford this season, so another unbeaten regular season would truly be an accomplishment.
Don't look now, but things are happening in Provo as Brigham Young is on the upswing. An offense that should put up plenty of points is led by QB Zack Wilson, who was excellent in his freshman campaign. Displaying the savvy of a veteran, Wilson avoided trouble and showed an ability to throw on the move. A year of experience should only make him better. The offensive line returns nearly intact, the receiving corps is good and the ground game gets a boost from South Carolina transfer Ty'Son Williams. The defense could be up and down despite having eight starters back, and the schedule maker did the Cougars zero favors. BYU faces Tennessee, Utah State and San Diego State on the road and Utah, USC and Washington at home.
Liberty may or may not be better than last year, when it went 6-6, but one thing is certain -- it will be much more fun under first year head coach Hugh Freeze. Yes, THAT Hugh Freeze, the one who was ousted at Ole Miss for calling an escort service on a burner phone. Apparently the folks at Liberty don't feel that's a problem -- which is code for "we don't care what you do as long as we win." The Flames have 22 seniors on a roster that has some decent talent, most notably future NFL target Antonio Gandy-Golden. The imposing senior is nearly impossible to jam off the line and will win more jump balls than he'll lose. Look for the Flames to play fast and utilize a ton of weapons on offense. The defense gave up 37 a game last year but should improve a bit due in large part to unheralded but talented DE Jesse Lemonier. The junior tallied 10 sacks last year and has outstanding quickness off the snap. The secondary excels as well. Whether or not the Flames top last year's mark remains to be seen as games against Syracuse, Louisiana, BYU and Virginia will all prove formidable. If they can win against inferior foes then Freeze could be looking at a big first season.
You hear it all the time -- the only thing guaranteed is death and taxes. Well, you wouldn't be wrong if you added "New Mexico State going 3-9" to that list of certainties as the Aggies have put up that mark in three of the last four seasons -- and are forecast to do so again, though they will have a pretty solid defense under DC Frank Spaziani. LB Javahn Fergerson is a tackling machine (132 in 2018) who toyed with the idea of the NFL but decided to return for his senior season. Quick and physical, Fergerson is excellent at navigating traffic and finding the football. DT Roy Lopez and boundary corner Shamad Lomax are also standouts on the stop side. The offense has electric RB Jason Huntley, who excelled in a part-time role a year ago and also proved to be one of the most dangerous return men in the nation, leading the nation with three kickoff return touchdowns. If the ground game improves (just 3.6 YPC last year) then the offense could trend upward. Whether or not that's enough to eclipse three wins remains to be seen.
It's rebuild time in Amherst as UMass lost its head coach and its AI -- Andy Isabella, to be precise. The lightning-quick wideout set every conceivable receiving record for the Minutmen a year ago (102-1698-13) and is now in the NFL. Without his ability to take the top off of a defense, UMass will struggle to put up points in 2019. One bright spot should be JUCO QB Andrew Brito, who overcomes his lack of size (5-10) with excellent accuracy and a quick release. He may be running for his life a bit as the O-line replaces three starters. First year coach Walt Bell has big time chops, serving as OC at Florida State last year and at Maryland the prior two seasons. The defense is highlighted by cornerback Isaiah Rodgers, who saw a dip in his numbers as a junior as teams didn't often test him. UMass will be underdogs in almost every contest this year and has an especially tough closing stretch -- at Army and Northwestern and home against BYU.
INDEPENDENT PREDICTIONS
1 Army (12-1)*R
2 Notre Dame (9-3)*R
3 Brigham Young (8-4)*R
4 Liberty (7-5)*
5 New Mexico State (3-9)
6 UMass (2-10)
* Bowl participant
R CFB Focus Top 40 team
ALL INDEPENDENT
OFFENSE
QB Ian Book/Notre Dame
RB Jason Huntley/New Mexico State
RB Kell Walker/Army
WR Antonio Gandy-Golden/Liberty
WR Gunner Romney/Brigham Young
WR Chase Claypool/Notre Dame
TE Matt Bushman/Brigham Young
OT Liam Eichenberg/Notre Dame
OT Sage Doxtater/New Mexico State
OG Tommy Kraemer/Notre Dame
OG Jaxson Deaton/Army
C James Empey/Brigham Young
DEFENSE
DE Julian Okwara/Notre Dame
DE Jesse Lemonier/Liberty
DT Roy Lopez/New Mexico State
DT Khyiris Tonga/Brigham Young
LB Javahn Fergerson/New Mexico State
LB Jarvis Miller/UMass
LB Cole Christiansen/Army
CB Isaiah Rodgers/UMass
CB Shamad Lomax/New Mexico State
S Alohi Gilman/Notre Dame
S Jaylon McClinton/Army
SPECIALISTS
K Alex Probert/Liberty
P Payton Theisler/New Mexico State
RS Jason Huntley/New Mexico State
TOP GAMES
Utah at Brigham Young (Aug. 29)
Army at Michigan (Sept. 7)
Brigham Young at Tennessee (Sept. 7)
USC at Brigham Young (Sept. 14)
Notre Dame at Georgia (Sept. 21)
Washington at Brigham Young (Sept. 21)
Virginia at Notre Dame (Sept. 28)
Notre Dame at Michigan (Oct. 26)
Notre Dame at Stanford (Nov. 30)
Army vs. Navy (Philadelphia) (Dec. 14)
TOP FIVE INCOMING FRESHMEN
DT Jacob Lacey/Notre Dame
LB Chaz Ah You/Brigham Young
OT Quin Carroll/Notre Dame
QB Jonathan Bennett/Liberty
WR Jermaine Johnson/UMass
TOP FIVE TRANSFERS
LB Jarvis Miller/UMass (Penn State)
RB Ty'Son Williams/Brigham Young (South Carolina)
S Chance Cook/New Mexico State (Oklahoma State)
WR Tony Nicholson/New Mexico State (Baylor)
RB Emmanuel Esupka/Brigham Young (Rice)
TOP FIVE JUCO TRANSFERS
QB Andrew Brito/UMass
CB Eric Ellison/Brigham Young
WR Robert Downs/New Mexico State
OT Maisen Knight/Liberty
S Christopher Bell/New Mexico State
