Friday, November 1, 2019

College Football Whiparound Week 10


Florida faces Georgia in Jacksonville on Saturday, with first place in the  SEC East at stake (AP/John Raoux)



This will be the final week this season where the majority of the card is crappy. Yes, we do get to enjoy the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, and a tasty AAC showdown featuring SMU and Memphis. But otherwise, this is a week to check those final items off your Honey-Do list. It doesn't help that the nation's top three teams are all idle this weekend, a stat oddity that hasn't happened since September 1991.

(8) Georgia vs. (6) Florida (Jacksonville) -- This is the second straight year the teams have met as top 10 foes, the Bulldogs winning in grand fashion last year 36-17. The Gators have lost five of the last eight meetings, and the last five contests have been decided by an average of 22 points. Both teams play standout defense, but Georgia has the edge on offense, averaging nearly seven yards per play. Florida will get after Jake Fromm, who was asked to do very little in Georgia's win over Kentucky (just 12 attempts). Some of Fromm's limitations as a passer have been exposed the last couple of games as he's averaged just 4.5 yards per attempt. Georgia will lean on D'Andre Swift, who has averaged over six yards per carry and scored three touchdowns in the Bulldogs last two games. Both teams rank in the top 10 in red zone touchdowns allowed, so if the end zone is found it's likely coming from a big play. The Gators have five players with at least 19 catches, so defenses cannot focus on just one weapon. Kyle Pitts has been a matchup nightmare in the red zone and Freddie Swain has been the big play guy. Georgia has one of the top cover men in the game in sophomore corner Eric Stokes.
(15) SMU at (24) Memphis -- SMU is one of the better stories of the 2019 season, sitting on an undefeated record heading into November for the first time since before the school received the death penalty in the 1980s. The Mustangs have done it with a nice combination of offense (6th in scoring at 43 points per game0 and a defense that has given up some big plays but is adept at rushing the passer (36 sacks, second in FBS). Memphis has gone 17-2 at home since 2017, have won five straight in the series and are 10-1 in November under Mike Norvell. The Tigers are sixth in Yards Per Play and 10th in scoring (39.5) and have one of the most exciting players in football in freshman running back Kenneth Gainwell (over seven yards a pop, 11 TDs). The AAC West division title hangs in the balance in this one, and it's big enough that ESPN has sent GameDay to Memphis, and the broadcast is in prime time. 
Wofford at (4) Clemson -- It's November, and Clemson is playing Wofford. Repeat that -- Clemson is playing Wofford. While the Tigers cannot control how bad the ACC is -- and it's BAD -- it CAN control who it plays in non-league action. And just like the SEC teams that get a break by taking on FCS squads, Clemson is also taking the easiest path to a CFP berth. The committee should institute a rule that says if you play an FCS squad it counts as one less win. Maybe then these teams wouldn't do it anymore. This game, along with the recent comical comments by Dabo Swinney about quitting coaching if players get paid, will make a certain someone pull hard for the Terriers. 
(7) Oregon at USC -- USC dominated the series early, but the Ducks have four of the last six and two of the last three in the LA Coliseum. The Trojans look like they have something special in frosh quarterback Kedon Slovis, who has tossed eight touchdowns and just one interception in the last three games, completing 68 percent of his passes. USC has found its scoring mojo again, averaging 38 points in its last two games. But points will be harder to come by against an Oregon defense that's ninth in the country in points allowed (14.8) and which leads the nation in interceptions (14). Oregon has needed last minute heroics against both of the Washington schools in consecutive weeks, but was rolling opponents prior to that. Oregon can get after the quarterback (23 sacks), so look for Slovis to throw a lot of quick timing passes -- slants, hitches, curls. An Oregon victory clinches the North division, while a USC win would keep the Trojans atop the South.
(9) Utah at Washington -- The numbers would indicate that Utah is the stronger team here, but one number that stands out is the Utes lack of success in Seattle -- just 1-12, and the Huskies have won four straight, including last year's hard-fought 10-3 win in the Pac-12 title game. Washington has dropped two of its last three, not finding enough offense against Stanford and not enough defense against Oregon. The Utes are playing for a return trip to the league championship and needs to keep pace with USC, which is responsible for Utah's lone defeat this season. Utah has yielded just 23 points in its last four games, and has scored 35 or more in three of the four. Tyler Huntley has been great under center, and the return of Zack Moss -- 115 yards and two TDs against Cal -- in the backfield has brought stability back to the Utes offense.
Ole Miss at (11) Auburn -- The Tigers have won 27 straight homecoming contests, and should be pretty confident after taking LSU to the wire before falling last weekend. Auburn has won six of the last seven in the series as host, and Ole Miss should find points tough to come by against the nation's 14th-ranked scoring D. Auburn should be able to dictate terms with its front four, and may be able to find some big plays through the air against a defense that's allowed 15 passing touchdowns and nearly eight yards per pass attempt. 
(14) Michigan at Maryland -- The Wolverines seem to have found something in the second half of the Penn State game, continuing that momentum into last week's blasting of Notre Dame. The Terps have been gashed on defense of late, allowing at least 34 points in four of its last five games. The Wolverines will want to come out fast and keep their foot on the gas as an open week awaits before rivalry games with Michigan State and Ohio State. After looking lost on defense early in the year, Michigan has really tightened things up, allowing just 3.66 yards per play in the last five games.
Virginia Tech at (16) Notre Dame -- Now that it has two losses, how will Notre Dame respond? Last weekend's beatdown at Michigan was atypical for a Brian Kelly team, which just didn't show up. The Irish were bad, and while the CFP is no longer in reach this will be a real test of resiliency. The Hokies average less than four yards per carry running the ball so may need to take to the air to score points against an Irish defense that allows nearly 59 percent completions and 6.5 yards per attempt. Irish quarterback Ian Book has done a good job valuing the football (just two interceptions), but was awful against Michigan's pressure. Don't be surprised if Bud Foster dials up it a notch. 
(17) Cincinnati at East Carolina -- The Pirates have lost four of the last five meetings, but did win the last time at Dowdy-Ficklen. ECU is offensively challenged, and going against one of the top defenses in the country in Luke Fickell's bunch will magnify that. Holton Ahlers hasn't improved as much as one would hope in his second season at quarterback, tossing eight TDs and seven picks, but he is a good runner who will make you pay if you don't account for him. ECU has allowed 19 rushing touchdowns, which plays right into the hands of the physical Bearcats. Michael Warren has a four game scoreless streak he's looking to break, and his bruising style should wear down the Pirates defense. 
(21) Boise State at San Jose State -- Boise State is still the favorite in the Mountain West, but this is not your typical San Jose State squad -- the Spartans have already won four games, which is more than the previous two seasons combined. Wins over Arkansas and Army show that it hasn't been a fluke, San Jose State is definitely improving. Much of that is because quarterback Josh Love has been very efficient with the football (15 TD-3 INT), and senior wideout Bailey Gaither has become a big play threat. Boise State has been getting it done on the ground, with Robert Mahone scoring five touchdowns and freshman George Holani averaging nearly five and a half yards per tote. Broncos freshman Hank Bachmeier is likely out another week with a hip pointer, but sophomore Chase Cord has provided a nice dual threat in relief. San Jose State has never beaten Boise State in 13 meetings. 
(22) Kansas State at Kansas -- The Jayhawks have had a mini-resurgence in the first year under Les Miles, winning as many times in their first eight games (three) as they did all of last year. The last time Kansas won more than three games was its 5-7 campaign in 2009, and KU is getting it done with offense, ranking 33rd in yards per play (6.33). Senior quarterback Carter Stanley has been very good, throwing 19 touchdowns and pushing the ball down the field (9.5 YPA, top 10 nationally). Running back Pooka Williams has gone over 130 yards in two of the last three games and could be a challenge for a Wildcats defense that allows 5.58 YPC (125th nationally), but did a solid job in limiting Oklahoma to just 102 yards on the ground in last weekend's upset.
NC State at (23) Wake Forest -- The home team has won 10 of the last 12 meetings, but Wake has not been good at home off of an open week, losing seven straight by an average of 15.4 ppg. NC State has been efficient through the air, though not dangerous, which could work against a Wake defense that allows nearly eight yards per completion. The Demon Deacons have been lethal through the air, with Sage Surratt and Scotty Washington combining for 85 catches and 16 touchdowns. Wake likes to play with tempo, eclipsing 80 plays four times this season and going over 100 plays twice. The hosts would be well served to win here as the schedule ends with three of the last four on the road -- including Clemson in two weeks. Wake has played as a ranked team vs NC State three previous times, and has lost all three.

TAKE FIVE (Games Featuring Unranked Teams)
Miami at Florida State -- The luster is off of this fierce rivalry as both teams struggle to be even mediocre, but you can bet it can make one team's season if it comes away with a victory. Both teams have had issues at quarterback -- and keeping them upright -- which means it could be up to the ground attack to get things done. That could be tough for the Seminoles, even with Cam Akers, because Miami is 14th nationally allowing just 3.07 yards per carry and seven touchdowns. The visitor in the series has won 9 of the last 13 meetings, and 15 of the last 17 games have been decided by a touchdown or less. 
TCU at Oklahoma State -- It's defense vs offense in Stillwater, with the Horned Frogs ranking in the national top 25 in most of the important defensive categories and the Cowboys doing the same on offense. This one will be decided by how well OSU running back Chuba Hubbard does. The nation's leading rusher, Hubbard has cranked out at least 110 yards in all but one game this season and has multiple touchdowns in five contests. TCU allows just 3.2 yards per carry and has allowed more than 24 points just three times this season. Linebacker Garret Wallow (10+ tackles per game) is the heart and soul of TCU's 3-3-5 attack and has excellent instincts. The home team has won 11 of the last 14 meetings. 
FAU at Western Kentucky -- Both the Owls and Hilltoppers have just one loss in league play, so the winner here gets a leg up in CUSA's East Division. After giving up 13 touchdowns in its first two games, FAU has allowed just 15 the rest of the season. Linebackers Rashad Smith and Akileis Leroy have paced the stop unit, and the offense has been efficient enough to take some pressure off. WKU won just three times last year, so being the running for the division crown is a huge improvement. The Hilltoppers have allowed 14 points or less in four of their last five games, with junior defensive end DeAngelo Malone being a real difference maker (9 sacks, 15 tackles for loss, second on the team in tackles with 62). The visitor has won five of the last eight meetings. 
Virginia at North Carolina -- Looky looky -- the top two teams in the Coastal Division squaring off in Chapel Hill. The Cavaliers are coming off of a demoralizing loss to Louisville while UNC edged Duke thanks to a Chaz Surratt interception at the goal line with 14 left to play. The Tar Heels are 4-4 and playing with a ton of energy, which has to be viewed as a positive in Mack Brown's first year of his second stint as head coach. UVA has been wildly inconsistent this season, playing to the level of competition and letting teams hang around far too long. Quarterback Bryce Perkins has just one touchdown pass in the last three games, and the Cavs have averaged less than 4.5 yards per play in the last three contests. Virginia has lost its last nine when playing a second straight road game, but has consecutive wins over the Tar Heels after losing seven in a row. 
UAB at Tennessee -- The Vols upset South Carolina a week ago and want to keep the momentum going against a Blazers squad ranked fifth in the nation in defensive yards per play (4.09). UAB has yet to allow more than 20 points in a game this season but has given up a lot of yardage in each of its last three games. Junior linebacker Kristopher Moll leads the way (9 tackles per game, 9 TFL, 4.5 sacks), while on offense quarterback Tyler Johnston III isn't afraid to push the ball downfield (9.7 YPA). Tennessee has really dialed up the pressure the last three games, amassing 12 sacks and 21 TFL, while receiver Jauan Jennings has been the go-to guy on offense (7-174-2 TD vs South Carolina). Tennessee lost its opener to G5 Georgia State but is 4-0 all time vs UAB. The Blazers are 0-4 vs Power 5 foes under Bill Clark, all against the SEC.

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