Friday, October 4, 2019

College Football Whiparound Week 6

Auburn heads to Florida to take on the Gators in a battle of SEC unbeatens (Saturday Down South)
(7) Auburn at (10) Florida: Typically a low-scoring, down to the wire contest, this SEC showdown will feature all kinds of defensive stars, and keep one team on the path to an undefeated season. Three of the last five meetings were decided by a field goal. The Gators have won four of the last five in Gainesville, and are tied for second nationally in sacks. That's important because Auburn freshman QB Bo Nix is 99th in the country in passer rating when blitzed, so look for Todd Grantham to bring the heat early and often -- and the Gators can get to the QB, as evidenced by their 24 sacks. Auburn has just one interception on the season and has allowed seven touchdowns through the air, so don't be surprised to see Florida taking some shots early.QB Kyle Trask has filled in nicely for the injured Feleipe Franks, tossing five TDs and completing over 77 percent of his throws.
(23) Michigan State at (4) Ohio State: The Buckeyes have won six of the last seven played in Columbus and 12 of the last 15 meetings, which includes a 48-3 shellacking in 2017. Michigan State just squeaked past Indiana last weekend but could have problems up front as they are down four offensive linemen. It's gotten so bad that defensive lineman JD Duplain has moved over to the offense, and that could be a real problem given the Buckeyes depth and tenacity along the defensive front. While Brian Lewerke leads the league in passing yards, he's completing less than 60 percent of his passes on the season. MSU has found a running threat in freshman Elijah Collins (5.3 YPC), which may help take the air out of the ball. The Buckeyes lead the nation in scoring margin as well as sack rate and stuff rate, so it could be tough going all around for the visitors. 
(14) Iowa at (19) Michigan: Could this be the start of a precipitous slide for the Wolverines? If recent history is any indication UM should be on high alert as the Hawkeyes have won five of the last six meetings, which includes three of the last four in Ann Arbor. Both teams are stout on defense, but the Wolverines have been anemic on offense, averaging just 5.54 yards per play (84th nationally). UM also has just 15 runs of 10+ yards this season and really needs the ground game to get going. The Hawkeyes have been great getting foes off the field, ranking eighth in FBS in opponent third down conversions, and could have success against the pass as they rank in the top 20 in yards allowed and have given up just four touchdowns. 
(3) Georgia at Tennessee: This one should be easy -- the Bulldogs rank among the nation's best in both offense and defense, get after the passer and protect the quarterback as well as any team in the country. The Vols are 88th in total offense and have issues at quarterback, and have won just twice in the last nine contests. There could be a surprise or two as this series has traditionally been close -- other than the last two Georgia blowouts, the previous six meetings had an average MOV of five points. 
Utah State at (5) LSU: The battle of quarterbacks Jordan Love and Joe Burrow should be worth the price of admission, even if the game is likely to be a blowout. LSU has won both prior meetings and is 8-1 against current Mountain West foes. The Tigers are doing things backward this year, touting a red-hot offense (fifth nationally at 7.99 YPP), led by Burrow's 17 touchdown passes. The Aggies are 1-11 the last six years in non-league road games, but could put up some points against an LSU defense that hasn't quite been up to par. Love is completing nearly 65 percent of his passes, but has tossed five INTs to just six touchdowns. The Aggies will have to hope they can run the ball with Jaylen Warren and Gerold Bright, averaging a combined 6 YPC. 
(6) Oklahoma at Kansas: The Jayhawks haven't beaten the Sooners since 1997, the last of three straight victories in the series. Oklahoma is laser-focused and knows that Texas is next up, so it would love nothing more than to make another statement this week. Jalen Hurts is among the Heisman Trophy leaders, but may have shoulder a bit more of the running load if RB Kennedy Brooks is limited (leg injury sustained last week vs Texas Tech). Kansas has its own issues, as leading rusher Khalil Herbert (nearly 9 YPC) is no longer part of the program after deciding to sit out last weekend's loss to TCU. That will put the spotlight on Pooka Williams, who dazzled last year as a freshman but has looked ordinary this year. Oklahoma has averaged 52 points in the last five meetings with Kansas, and shouldn't have much trouble hitting that this weekend. 
Kent State at (8) Wisconsin: The Flashes are 98th in YPP on defense, which means the Badgers should be able to run, pass, kick and crawl their way to a big victory. The Badgers haven't hosted two MAC schools in the same season since 1992, and won both of those big. Wisconsin already has a win over Central Michigan earlier this season, and should be able to use this game as a showcase to get running back Jonathan Taylor back in the Heisman Trophy mix after having one of his least productive games -- relatively speaking -- last week against Northwestern (one TD, 4.83 YPC, the first time this season he's been under 5 YPC). 
Bowling Green at (9) Notre Dame: The Irish have never lost to a MAC team in seven contests, and the first won't come in this meeting with the Falcons. BG is 119th in YPP on offense and 122 on defense, and are outclassed at every turn. The Irish should be able to do whatever they want, though they have had a recent habit of playing down to competition, and beat MAC foe Ball State by just eight points last season.
(11) Texas at West Virginia: The Longhorns have two of the last three played in Morgantown, but come in with a banged-up defense, especially in the secondary. Caden Sterns, Jalen Green and Josh Thompson are all out, Thompson for the rest of the season due to a foot injury. That could mean big things for WVU WR Sam James (26 catches, 1 TD) against a UT pass D that ranks 106th nationally. If Texas can shut down the passing game it will be in good shape because WVU has lacked explosiveness most of the season. The Mountaineers have allowed eight TDs through the air, which should make Devin Duvernay's eyes light up. The senior wideout has 39 grabs and four TDs and has yet to drop a single target this season.
Purdue at (12) Penn State: Purdue will not have quarterback Elijah Sindelar or dynamic wideout Rondale Moore for this game, and they were just about the only chance the Boilermakers had of keeping the contest close. Penn State has won eight straight, with only the 2011 game being less than a one-score contest. This is the last "breather" for the Nittany Lions for awhile as the next three are Iowa, Michigan and Michigan State. Penn State should be able to do what it wants to in this one. 
Cal at (13) Oregon: The Bears lead the series 41-39 but have dropped nine of the last 10, including five straight in Eugene. Both teams play excellent defense -- Oregon ranking fifth nationally in YPP at 3.89 and Cal giving up 4.89. So every yard will have to be earned. The Ducks are much more dynamic on offense, ranking 27th in YPP, and QB Justin Herbert has 14 touchdowns to zero interceptions on the season. So the Bears top-notch secondary will definitely be tested, though LB Evan Weaver will once again be all over the field making just about every tackle. Cal QB Chase Garbers was knocked out of the last game, leaving UCLA transfer Devon Modster in charge. He was just five-of-14 last week against Arizona State, so Justin Wilcox will need to get creative on offense if Cal wants to find the end zone.
(15) Washington at Stanford: Another close Pac-12 series, with the Huskies holding a 43-42-4 edge. Stanford has won four of the last six meetings, and Washington hasn't won in Palo Alto since 2007. Washington has gotten steady, sometimes spectacular, play from QB Jacob Eason, and he could have a big day against a Stanford defense ranked 115th in the country in YPP. Cardinal QB KJ Costello is out, which means Davis Mills gets the start. He's been OK, throwing 4 TDs to just one pick, but can't challenge defenses deep the way Costello can. Stanford averages just 3.59 yards per carry, and the Huskies haven't been very good against the run (7 TDs allowed). So if Stanford can be balanced on offense it could have a puncher's chance to win.
(16) Boise State at UNLV: The Broncos have averaged 44 points per contest in a five-game winning streak, and should once again be able to push the Rebels around. UNLV lacks punch on offense, while Boise brings a ferocious defense to the table. That's not optimum for the home team, which has failed to score more than 17 points in each of the last three games. Boise State has done well getting to the passer (13th nationally) and should have ample opportunity for big plays as UNLV has allowed 22 plays of 20-plus yards and 15 of 30-plus.
(18) UCF at Cincinnati (Oct. 4): The teams have met just four times, the Knights taking each of the last three in convincing fashion. Both squads have been stingy on defense, ranking in the top 30, while the Knights have a decided edge on offense (seventh in FBS). Freshman QB Dillon Gabriel has played beyond his years, tossing 14 TDs to just two picks and showing an affinity for the downfield throw. Cincinnati wants to run the football with Michael Warren III but hasn't been good at it this year, averaging just 4.1 yards per carry as a team. Cincinnati has been stout in the red zone, ranking 14th in opponents scoring percentage, and has allowed just 39 plays of 10-plus yards, 13th best in the nation. That will be challenged mightily by the Knight big play offense, but UCF has been susceptible to the big play, allowing 77 gains of 10-plus yards (113th). Maybe the home atmosphere allows the Bearcats to break a play or two because it's questionable whether they can grind things out against a talented UCF defense. 
(21) Oklahoma State at Texas Tech: The Cowboys have won nine of the last 10 and five in a row in Lubbock, and making things tougher for the Red Raiders is that QB Alan Bowman will be out a few more weeks after suffering a shoulder injury in September. OSU is 14th in the country in YPP (7.04), including averaging over 6 yards per rush. Chuba Hubbard has been a man in the backfield, going over 200 yards three times already this season, and leads the country in yards (938) and touchdowns (10). Quarterback Spencer Sanders hasn't played like a freshman, completing 64.5 percent of his passes and showing an ability to burn teams with his legs (380 yards, 2 TDs).
Tulsa at (24) SMU: The Mustangs are ranked for the first time since 1987, it's last season of competition before getting the death penalty for a pay for play scandal. SMU is doing it on both offense, ranking in the top 35 nationally in both total offense and defense. The addition of Shane Buechele at quarterback has breathed life into the offense. The Mustangs have 25 passing plays over 20 yards and 16 over 30 yards, but Tulsa has been solid against the pass, allowing just four touchdowns on the season. SMU has lost four of the last five meetings, but the home team has won three in a row. A win here sets up the Ponies for a grueling stretch run, with road trips to Houston and Memphis in consecutive weeks beginning in late October.

TAKE FIVE (Games Featuring Unranked Teams)
Baylor at Kansas State: An underrated Big 12 series, the Wildcats lead 9-7 and will look to rebound from last year's narrow 37-34 setback in Waco. Both teams prefer to run the football, but are disciplined when throwing it -- they've combined for 15 TDs and zero interceptions. Baylor ranks 8th in third down conversions while KSU is third in stopping third down conversions, so whichever of those two units wins the battle likely wins the game. 
TCU at Iowa State: The Horned Frogs have won three of the last four meetings in Ames but will have their hands full with a Cyclones bunch that knows it let one slip away last weekend against Baylor. The Cyclones will look to QB Brock Purdy to do damage through the air but could have issues dealing with TCU's lockdown pass D, which is allowing only 50 percent completions and four touchdowns this season. TCU RB Darius Anderson is sixth nationally running the ball and averages over eight yards per pop. The Cyclones are teetering on the brink of irrelevance in the Big 12 with a loss in this game, so expect a renewed focus.
Tulane at Army: The visitor has won four of the last five meetings, but Army has taken four of the last six --so something has to give. The Black Knights are coming off of an idle week while Tulane had a long week after scoring late to knock off Houston Sept. 26th. Both teams are in the top 10 in rushing, but Tulane has been a bit more susceptible to the big play.
Air Force at Navy: Fans love Army-Navy, but this one is a part of the Commander In Chief's trophy, and Navy has taken 11 of the last 15 contests. Both teams have been stout on defense, allowing less than 10 plays of 10+ yards this season, and rank first (Navy) and second in rushing yards per game. Don't be shock if there's a little trickery here and the passing game ends up deciding the contest -- both teams average over 11 yards per attempt.
Western Michigan at Toledo: A MAC West showdown that likely decides the winner of the division, the Broncos and Rockets have staged some shootouts in recent seasons. The Rockets have won seven of the last nine, and both of WMU's losses this season have been away from home. Broncos QB Jon Wassink has already tossed 10 TDs this season and loves pushing the ball downfield. Toledo QB Mitchell Guadagni completes 60 percent of his passes but is dangerous with his legs, averaging six yards per tote. WMU is just 1-3 in the Glass Bowl since 2011.

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