A most inopportune break may be what breaks the hold of dominance UCF has had on the American Athletic Conference.
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| Michael Warren (The Toledo Blade) |
While it won't take him out for the entire 2019, Mack's injury will affect UCF negatively. The injury occurred in early July, and there is no timetable for his return at the moment. UCF faces Stanford early in the campaign, and travels to Cincinnati in early October. If Mack has not returned for that game then the balance of power may well have shifted to the Bearcats. But weep not for the Knights, because they still have the fastest team in the conference. That speed will be utilized especially at the skill positions, where Greg MacRae and Adrian Killins Jr form a great 1-2 backfield punch. Tre Nixon and Gabriel Dixon are a handful at receiver, but may be a bit less effective without Mack under center. Defense could be hit or miss as four of the top six tacklers are gone. But UCF has the league's best secondary, led by safety Richie Grant, and an excellent pass rush, so it will be right there.
USF will be a bit behind the top two, but will be a fun offensive team thanks to first-year OC Kerwin Bell. Formerly head coach at Valdosta State, Bell loves to spread the ball around to playmakers in space, and the Bulls have a bunch of those out wide -- most notably Randall St. Felix, who averaged over 20 yards per grab in 2018. Jordan Cronkrite is a special talent in the backfield and the offensive line returns mostly intact. It will all come down to quarterback play, which means Blake Barnett must be better than he was last season (12 TD-11 INT) if things are to work out. The Bulls D will be steady and workmanlike, though it wasn't great at forcing turnovers a year ago and allowed teams more than five yards per carry on the ground.
New head coach Rod Carey, who had much success at Northern Illinois, may have an uphill climb this year as Temple as the home schedule is tough -- Georgia Tech, Memphis, UCF and Tulane. The Owls will need to pull an upset or two if they want to get back to the postseason, but they'll have a chance with Anthony Russo at quarterback, though he will need to cut down on his interception total (14). Isaiah Wright is electric at receiver and especially in the return game. Temple is always tough defensively and this year should be no exception. Quincy Roche fuels the pass rush and Shaun Bradley holds things down at middle linebacker. Baylor transfer Harrison Hand should be a revelation at one corner spot, which will be welcome as Temple intercepted just 13 passes last year.
Ultra-successful coach Mike Houston makes the jump from FCS James Madison to East Carolina, and he has a decent starting point with quarterback Holton Ahlers, who led the Pirates in rushing and passing in 2018. A strapping lefty, Ahlers may be asked to pass a bit more this year, and he'll have a good crew to throw to, led by Blake Proehl. The defense allowed 37.3 ppg but was able to get to the quarterback (34 sacks). Alex Turner and Kendall Futrell are both back up front, aided by an experienced linebacker corps. The secondary has some turnover but will be helped by some JUCO talent.
There are all kinds of problems for UConn, which recently made the decision to de-emphasize football, a choice that will cost them league membership as admins will not keep them as a football-only member. If this is the last season for the Huskies in the AAC it will likely end with a whimper. Oh sure, UConn has more talent than it did last year thanks to some transfers, but you have to believe the players will find it difficult to focus knowing that there's nothing at the end of the rainbow. The offense averaged just over 22 points per contest last year and could be slightly better this year, if it leans on RB Kevin Mensah. The defense was historically bad, giving up 50.4 ppg, tallying just 11 sacks and being -17 in turnovers. Notre Dame transfer DJ Morgan slides in at one linebacker spot, and should be solid. The opener with Wagner appears to be the only guaranteed win on the slate.
In the West, it should be a spirited race to the finish between Houston and Memphis, two teams who will vie for most powerful offense in the league.
The Cougars have a new coach in former West Virginia boss Dana Holgorsen, but a holdover at quarterback in the wondrous D'Eriq King, who missed the final two games of the year due to injury yet still tallied 50 total touchdowns. The skill positions are well stocked, though there are a few concerns with a largely rebuilt offensive line. The defense returns just four, but should have an excellent secondary. The Cougars will need to get more aggressive up front and do a better job against the run, otherwise it could be a season full of shootouts. September features showdowns with Oklahoma and Washington State, so Houston will know quickly just how good it is.
Should Houston falter, the Tigers will be right there waiting to grab the division crown. Six starters are back for an offense that scored nearly 43 ppg last year, including quarterback Brady White and wideout Damontie Coxie, both among the league's best on offense. Patrick Taylor ran for over 1100 yards and scored 16 TDs in a committee role at RB, and could really explode with the job mostly to himself. The defense is inconsistent but has some playmakers -- linebacker Bryce Huff (9.5 sacks) and shutdown corner TJ Carter (12 PBUs) the standouts. Memphis has to go to Houston in mid November but gets Cincinnati at home the final weekend of the season.
Willie Fritz has made incremental progress at Tulane, and this season the Green Wave could challenge Cincinnati for the league's best defense thanks to talented D-line stalwarts Patrick Johnson (10.5 sacks, 5 PBUs) and Jeffery Johnson (30 tackles as a freshman), who is excellent at holding his ground inside. Lawrence Graham can be a force at LB, but the secondary will need to be more active as Tulane had just 10 INTs last year. LSU transfer Justin McMillan is back to run the show and was solid in the final six games last year. He has an excellent backfield tandem in Darius Bradwell and Corey Dauphine, a big play receiver in Darnell Mooney and Oklahoma State grad transfer Jalen McCleskey, who will provide provide experience and sure hands. The Green Wave will have to weather an early schedule that includes a visit to Auburn, a home date with Houston and a trip to Army, but after that only games with Memphis and UCF appear daunting.
SMU wasn't nearly as proficient on offense as expected last season, but could be trending upward with Texas transfer Shane Buechele at the controls. A good decision-maker during his time in Austin, Buechele won't let the moment overwhelm him. He has maybe the best receiving corps in the league on his side, led by James Proche (93-1199-12 TD) and Reggie Roberson (52-802-6), and if a backfield threat can be found the Mustangs offense could be lethal. The D returns nine starters from an underwhelming unit, though linebacker Richard Moore is one to watch. Safety Rodney Clemons and rush end Delontae Scott could be difference-makers for a group that sorely needs a few.
It was odd seeing Navy struggle after years of success, but the Middies won just three times last year because the defense had trouble stopping people. With just four starters back, maybe it gets better. One of the holdovers is nose guard Jackson Pittman, an all-league talent who understands leverage and has surprising quickness for a 300-pounder. The offense dipped below 30 ppg for the first time since 2012, mostly because of inconsistency at quarterback. Navy went through three starters, none of whom really took hold of the job. Malcolm Perry has the most experience and will get first crack at the gig in 2019, and though the A- and B-backs are inexperienced they are talented. Navy must go to Houston, Memphis and Notre Dame, so the ceiling is limited. But it wouldn't be a surprise if the Middies return to the postseason.
Tulsa has won just five times in the last two seasons, and you have to think Philip Montgomery is beginning to feel some heat. The Hurricane fizzled out offensively in 2018, averaging just over 24 ppg. Help could be on the way as strong-armed Baylor transfer Zach Smith assumes the quarterback duties. Shemari Brooks is solid from the backfield, and is joined by Corey Taylor, who scored 11 TDs last year. LB Cooper Edmiston is one of the few bright spots on defense, racking up 113 stops and four interceptions. Running mate Zaven Collins is also a player, while rush end Trevis Gipson has shown some ability to affect the quarterback. Tulsa has a tasty home slate, with Oklahoma State, Memphis, UCF and Houston all coming to town.
AAC PREDICTIONS
EAST
1 Cincinnati (9-4, 7-1)*R
2 UCF (9-3, 6-2)*R
3 USF (5-7, 4-4)
4 Temple (5-7, 3-5)
5 East Carolina (5-7, 2-6)
6 UConn (2-10, 0-8)
WEST
1 Houston (10-3, 6-2)*R
1 Memphis (10-2, 6-2)*R
3 Tulane (7-5, 5-3)*
3 SMU (6-6, 5-3)*
5 Navy (5-7, 2-6)
5 Tulsa (3-9, 2-6)
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Houston over Cincinnati
* Bowl participant
R CFB Focus Top 40 team
ALL-AAC
FIRST TEAM OFFENSE
QB D'Eriq King/Houston
RB Greg MacRae/UCF
RB Patrick Taylor/Memphis
WR Marquez Stevenson/Houston
WR James Proche/SMU
WR Damontie Coxie/Memphis
TE Joey Magnifico/Memphis
OT Josh Jones/Houston
OT Marcus Norman/USF
OG Cole Schneider/UCF
OG Jovahn Fair/Temple
C Jordan Johnson/UCF
FIRST TEAM DEFENSE
DE Brendon Hayes/UCF
DE Patrick Johnson/Tulane
DT Jeffery Johnson/Tulane
DT Dan Archibong/Temple
LB Bryce Huff/Memphis
LB Shaun Bradley/Temple
LB Nate Evans/UCF
CB Mike Hampton/USF
CB TJ Carter/Memphis
S Richie Grant/UCF
S Deontay Anderson/Houston
FIRST TEAM SPECIALISTS
K Jake Verity/East Carolina
P James Smith/Cincinnati
RS Isaiah Wright/Temple
SECOND TEAM OFFENSE
QB Brady White/Memphis
RB Michael Warren/Cincinnati
RB Jordan Cronkrite/USF
WR Darnell Mooney/Tulane
WR Gabriel Davis/UCF
WR Blake Proehl/East Carolina
TE Mitchell Wilcox/USF
OT Adam Klein/Temple
OT Chris Ferguson/Cincinnati
OG Corey Dublin/Tulane
OG Dylan Parham/Memphis
C Dustin Woodard/Memphis
SECOND TEAM DEFENSE
DE Quincy Roche/Temple
DE Greg Reaves/USF
DT Alex Turner/East Carolina
DT Jackson Pittman/Navy
LB Cooper Edmiston/Tulsa
LB Nico Sawtelle/USF
LB Richard Moore/SMU
CB Harrison Hand/Temple
CB Brandon Moore/UCF
S James Wiggins/Cincinnati
S Rodney Clemons/SMU
SECOND TEAM SPECIALISTS
K Coby Weiss/USF
P Thomas Bennett/Tulsa
RS Otis Anderson/UCF
OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: D'Eriq King
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Nate Evans
COACH OF THE YEAR: Dana Holgorsen/Houston
TOP NEWCOMER: Harrison Hand (Baylor transfer)
TOP FIVE GAMES (NONCONFERENCE)
UCLA at Cincinnati (Aug. 29)
Houston at Oklahoma (Sept. 1)
Cincinnati at Ohio State (Sept. 7)
Stanford at UCF (Sept. 14)
Army vs Navy (Philadelphia) (Dec. 14)
TOP FIVE GAMES (CONFERENCE)
UCF at Cincinnati (Oct. 4)
Cincinnati at Houston (Oct. 12)
Houston at UCF (Nov. 2)
Memphis at Houston (Nov. 16)
Cincinnati at Memphis (Nov. 29)
TOP FIVE INCOMING FRESHMEN
OG Adrian Medley/UCF
CB Jayden Curry/USF
LB Dorian Williams/Tulane
S Roderick Roberson/SMU
OT Danielson Ike/SMU
TOP FIVE TRANSFERS
CB Harrison Hand/Temple (Baylor)
S Jordan Hayes/UCF (Duke)
WR Jalen McCleskey/Tulane (Oklahoma State)
QB Shane Buechele/SMU (Texas)
S Devin Studstill/USF (Notre Dame)
TOP FIVE JUCO TRANSFERS
TE Zech Byrd/East Carolina
LB Terrance Edgeston/Houston
CB Sam Westfall/SMU
CB Damarion Williams/Houston
TE Denzel Carter/Tulsa
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