Monday, August 6, 2018

A Radical But Practical College Football Realignment

Full disclosure -- I like the College Football Playoff the way it is. Four teams is perfect, it makes every week of the regular season akin to an elimination game, and that's how things should be. It doesn't quite eliminate you to lose once, but lose twice and you're done. Have zero issue with that, which is why it would have bothered me had Auburn made it in last year with three losses -- even with a conference championship.

While I like the format, the process is another matter entirely. The CFP committee is certainly well-intentioned, but not nearly transparent enough for most people. There's also the matter of no truly etched in stone criteria -- they say conference titles matter, but Ohio State in 2016 and Alabama last year got in despite neither winning their league. The committee also talks about who you beat and when, meaning that in their eyes it's better to lose in September than to lose in November (unless you're Alabama). Schedule strength SHOULD matter -- I'd much rather have a one loss team that played a grueling slate get in over an unbeaten that beat a bunch of tomato cans.
Under a new system, this would not happen every year (Sporting News)

Strength of schedule hurts most of the Group of Five teams, as their leagues are not seen as strong enough by the committee, even in a year when they run the table -- as UCF did last season. The Knights best wins came against #22 USF and #16 Memphis in the AAC title game, both wins by a touchdown. In the eyes of the committee, that seemed to pale next to Alabama's victory over Mississippi State, or Ohio State's win over Penn State, or Wisconsin's win over Michigan or ... you get the picture. The committee values a good record and good wins, as long as you're a Power 5 team. And that's wrong. If you are a Group of Five team and you are worthy, you should definitely be in the mix for inclusion in the playoff. To have UCF at 12 when the selections were unveiled was absolutely asinine.

Don't get me wrong, I don't believe UCF should have been included last year. But the fact that it wasn't even CONSIDERED after beating everyone on the schedule says that the process is flawed.

Those flaws in the process are turning off fans -- certainly those who follow Group of Five teams, but many others who swear allegiance to Power 5, too. And if you turn off your fans, they are eventually going to turn on you.

Now I know they didn't ask, but I have come up with a better way to run the playoff, and college football.

One word -- relegation.

Isn't that what they do in English soccer? Why yes, it is.

The English Premier League has 20 teams, and is part of a system of eight different leagues that are interconnected. Most of them promote the top two, and have varying numbers in the playoffs for their league. They also relegate the bottom two or three to the level below theirs (Premier League is Level 1, so bottom three would go down to the English Football League Championship, Level 2), and this goes on each season. It allows smaller teams to, in theory, compete for the biggest prize in English soccer. Usually dominated by Manchester United and Chelsea and Arsenal, the Premier League saw a shock in 2015-16 when Leicester City broke through with a championship after being forecast for relegation before the season started.

If college football worked the same way, there would be even more intensity than there is now, and all teams would, in theory, have something to play for.
Group Of Five teams would be welcome here (Sporting News)

At the moment, there are maybe 25-30 teams each season that realistically believe they have a chance to win it all. The Group of Five need not apply because they need to be almost doubly impressive to even get a sniff.

Well, my system would change that.

Think about this -- two leagues, the A League and the B League. With 130 teams, they can't quite be split evenly, so the top 64 would be put into the A and the remaining 66 would go to the B. It would be too problematic to promote and relegate teams every season, so a five-year snapshot would be used. A team's record after that fifth year would determine if they moved up, down or stayed where they were.

The A League is made up of the 64 winningest programs over the past five years, put into eight divisions -- including one made up solely of G5 teams. Teams were placed, for the most part, in geographically appropriate regions.

Scheduling would not be very difficult -- each division is eight teams, so you play all seven from your division, then five others of your choosing. Similar to the Premier League, points would be given for victories -- two for a win by an A League team, which has a limit of just one lower league game, but it isn't mandatory.

For the B League, which has six divisions of 11 teams, it's basically the same, only a win over an A League team is worth three points. All others are worth two. B League teams also play seven teams from their division and five others of their choosing, with the other five having no restrictions. They can schedule five A League teams, in hopes of chasing the big points, or five B League teams, attempting to stay in their own strata but picking up victories.

At the end of five seasons, points are tallied, and the eight A League teams with the fewest points move down to the B League, while the eight B League teams with the most points move up.

The eight A League divisional champions are automatically put into the College Football Playoff -- bye-bye championship games. There's zero sense in having to beat a team twice to qualify, and this eliminates that problem. With no championship games, there would be little to no chance that a three or four loss team makes it in. And that's a good thing. The committee would seed the teams 1-8, with the top four receiving home games in the quarterfinals. The semis and final would be part of the bowl system, which would be severely cut down from the 40 we have now to 15.

I know, I know -- bowl trips are a great experience, they give a team 15 additional practices, the kids enjoying seeing new places. Whatever. Bowls should be a REWARD, and teams that win six games should not be rewarded as they had a mediocre season. Hell, it would be great if seven win teams were left out, but that won't always happen. So the top 30 teams each season (based on points) get to play in bowl games. If there are ties, the bowl is allowed to choose.

What does that mean for the B League? It means get better, kids.

You want to eat at the big table? Prove you belong there.

Don't keep hiring retread coaches, don't keep pocketing that league television network money instead of spending it on football. Commit to excellence. Wins will follow.

And with a five year window, it may just keep coaches on the job a little bit longer, giving them a chance to build instead of tossing them out after two or three years.

So that's my plan.

Mike, you're asking -- where is my team?

Well, feast your eyes on the following:

A LEAGUE
7 DIVISIONAL OPPONENTS
5 OPPONENTS FROM ANY OTHER DIVISION, BUT ONLY ONE CAN BE FROM B LEAGUE.
NO CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES
DIVISION WINNER GETS AUTOMATIC BERTH IN CFP
COMMITTEE ONLY NEEDED FOR SEEDING
2 POINTS FOR A WIN
MOST (B)/FEWEST (A) POINTS IN FIVE YEARS MOVE UP/DOWN

TOP 26 TEAMS NOT IN PLAYOFF PLAY IN BOWL GAMES, FOUR QUARTERFINAL PLAYOFF WINNERS GO INTO PREDETERMINED BOWL GAMES

UPDATED WITH RECORDS THROUGH OCT. 6TH

SOUTH
UCF (12-0)*
TROY (9-3)#
HOUSTON (8-4)#
ARKANSAS STATE (8-4)#
MEMPHIS (8-5)#
LOUISIANA TECH (7-5)
USF (7-5)
WESTERN KENTUCKY (3-9)
MIDEAST
WEST VIRGINIA (8-3)*
MARSHALL (8-4)#
MIDDLE TENNESSEE (8-5)#
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (8-5)#
WESTERN MICHIGAN (7-5)
TENNESSEE (5-7)
NAVY (3-9)
LOUISVILLE (2-10)
DEEP SOUTH
ALABAMA (13-0)*
LSU (9-3)#
MISSISSIPPI STATE (8-4)#
TEXAS A&M (8-4)#
AUBURN (7-5)#
GEORGIA TECH (7-5)#
FLORIDA STATE (5-7)
MISSISSIPPI (5-7)
COASTAL
CLEMSON (13-0)*
GEORGIA (11-2)#
FLORIDA (9-3)#
MIAMI FLA (7-5)#
DUKE (7-5)#
SOUTH CAROLINA (7-5)
VIRGINIA TECH (6-6)
NORTH CAROLINA (2-9)
SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON (10-3)*
WASHINGTON STATE (10-2)#
BOISE STATE (10-3)#
OREGON (8-4)#
SAN DIEGO STATE (7-5)#
ARIZONA STATE (7-5)#
ARIZONA (5-7)
UCLA (3-9)
MIDLANDS
OKLAHOMA (12-1)*
IOWA (8-4)#
MISSOURI (8-4)#
BAYLOR (6-6)
OKLAHOMA STATE (6-6)
MINNESOTA (6-6)
KANSAS STATE (5-7)
NEBRASKA (4-8)
MOUNTAIN
UTAH (9-4)*
STANFORD (8-4)#
WISCONSIN (7-5)#
TCU (6-6)
BRIGHAM YOUNG (6-6)
USC (5-7)
AIR FORCE (5-7)
COLORADO STATE (3-9)
MID SOUTH
NOTRE DAME (12-0)*
OHIO STATE (12-1)#
MICHIGAN (10-2)#
PENN STATE (9-3)#
OHIO (8-4)#
NORTHWESTERN (8-5)#
MICHIGAN STATE (7-5)
TOLEDO (7-5)

B LEAGUE
7 DIVISIONAL OPPONENTS
5 OPPONENTS FROM ANY OTHER DIVISION, TWO CAN BE FROM A LEAGUE
2 POINTS FOR A WIN, 3 FOR A WIN OVER A LEAGUE TEAM.
MOST (B)/FEWEST (A) POINTS IN FIVE YEARS MOVE UP/DOWN

EAST
CINCINNATI (10-2)
BUFFALO (10-3)
ARMY (9-2)
SYRACUSE (9-3)
TEMPLE (8-4)
BOSTON COLLEGE (7-5)
PITTSBURGH (7-6)
MARYLAND (5-7)
UMASS (4-8)
RUTGERS (1-11)
UCONN (1-11)
SOUTH COAST
APPALACHIAN STATE (10-2)
NC STATE (9-3)
FIU (8-4)
VIRGINIA (7-5)
WAKE FOREST (6-6)
LIBERTY (6-6)
CHARLOTTE (5-7)
COASTAL CAROLINA (5-7)
FLORIDA ATLANTIC (5-7)
OLD DOMINION (4-8)
EAST CAROLINA (3-9)
MIDDLE AMERICA
KENTUCKY (9-3)
EASTERN MICHIGAN (7-5)
PURDUE (6-6)
MIAMI O (6-6)
INDIANA (5-7)
ILLINOIS (4-8)
AKRON (4-8)
BALL STATE (4-8)
BOWLING GREEN (3-9)
KENT STATE (2-10)
CENTRAL MICHIGAN (1-11)
GREAT PLAINS
TEXAS (9-4)
NORTH TEXAS (9-3)
IOWA STATE (8-4)
TEXAS TECH (5-7)
SMU (5-7)
NEW MEXICO (3-9)
UTSA (3-9)
KANSAS (3-9)
NEW MEXICO STATE (3-9)
TEXAS STATE (3-9)
RICE (2-11)
GOLD MOUNTAIN
FRESNO STATE (11-2)
UTAH STATE (10-2)
HAWAII (8-5)
CALIFORNIA (7-5)
NEVADA (7-5)
WYOMING (6-6)
COLORADO (5-7)
UNLV (4-8)
OREGON STATE (2-10)
SAN JOSE STATE (1-11)
UTEP (1-11)
DIXIE
UAB (10-3)
GEORGIA SOUTHERN (9-3)
LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE (7-6)
SOUTHERN MISS (6-5)
VANDERBILT (6-6)
TULANE (6-6)
ULM (6-6)
TULSA (3-9)
SOUTH ALABAMA (3-9)
ARKANSAS (2-10)
GEORGIA STATE (2-10)

Got it? Looks exciting, right?

These would be the bowl games:

Troy vs Duke
Houston vs Marshall
Arkansas State vs. San Diego State
Memphis vs Northern Illinois
Middle Tennessee vs Ohio
LSU vs Washington State
Miami vs Oregon
Boise State vs Florida
Mississippi State vs Michigan
Georgia Tech vs Northwestern
Penn State vs Auburn
Stanford vs Texas A&M
Wisconsin vs. Missouri
Iowa vs Arizona State
Georgia vs Ohio State

This would be the CFP field for 2018 as things currently stand:

UCF
West Virginia
Alabama
Clemson
Washington
Oklahoma
Utah
Notre Dame

They would be seeded (purely hypothetical):

(8) West Virginia at (1) Alabama
(7) Utah at (2) Clemson
(6) UCF (3) Notre Dame
(5) Washington at (4) Oklahoma

That, friends, would be very cool.

The winners would then play in two predetermined bowls (rotated among the six currently used):

Cotton Bowl
Clemson vs Notre Dame

Orange Bowl
Alabama vs Oklahoma

The championship game would still be a neutral site game, but not nearly as late as it is now.

With the conference title games eliminated, the quarterfinals could be played in mid-December, and then the semifinals just after Christmas. The title game would be as close as possible to New Years Day -- either as a capper to a few other bowl games, or a day or two afterward. So the longest time anyone has off is two weeks, between the end of the regular season and the quarterfinals. After that, it would be a week, give or take a couple of days.

This would satisfy most people, as a G5 team would be included, and fans would get a real shot to participate with the quarterfinal games. It would have a true atmosphere, which is missing far too often in the postseason.

One note about this -- it will never happen, because the big time schools don't want to give away any of the money. They don't like to share, especially with teams and leagues they believe to be inferior.

But wouldn't it make the world a better place if this somehow, some way, became a reality?

It would convert me from being a proponent of "No More Than Four" to a champion of "Eight Is Great."

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