The last four seasons have produced a total of 11 wins -- no more than three in any one season -- and spunky Iowa State was tabbed ninth in the 10-team Big 12 in the preseason. But a season-changing victory at Oklahoma began a three-game winning streak, and now the 25th-ranked Cyclones have something very dangerous -- confidence.
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| TCU QB Kenny Hill has fueled his team's high octane offense (Dallas Morning News) |
"Ever since the win at Oklahoma, our confidence is crazy now," top receiver Allen Lazard said. "We trust each other and we trust what the coaches are doing. Just knowing that we can rely on each other, it helps us keep our poise and be able to execute in critical situations."
ISU (5-2, 3-1) is ranked for the first time in 12 years, and will need to rely on that confidence and high-level play if it wants to knock off visiting fourth-ranked TCU on Saturday.
The Horned Frogs (7-0, 4-0) were, like Iowa State, something of an afterthought in the preseason, chosen to finish fifth in the conference. But dominating showings in their first three games led up to their defining moment of 2017 (at least thus far) -- a big win in Stillwater over favored Oklahoma State. That was followed by a nailbiter against West Virginia, but since then TCU has been operating with precision, including setting a conference record by allowing just 21 yards to Kansas last Saturday.
The lofty ranking is nice, but TCU can't just expect to waltz into Jack Trice Stadium -- where it is 3-0 since joining the Big 12 -- and think Iowa State will be a pushover.
"Right now we're 7-0 and we need to get to 8-0," TCU coach Gary Patterson said. "This one will be tougher. I said before the season that Iowa State was going to be a tough ballgame, and that's not even knowing what I know now."
TCU has gotten it done with balance, averaging 466.3 yards per game and ranking ninth in scoring at 41.6 points per contest. Whether it's Darius Anderson and his 76 yards per game and six scores or the receiving tandem of KaVontae Turpin (23-238-1) and Jalen Reagor (18-298-4), the Horned Frogs have weapons everywhere.
They also have a quarterback in Kenny Hill to make it all go. His resurrection, from phenom at Texas A&M to being benched and eventually leaving College Station to arriving at TCU and writing a second chapter, has been the story for this offense, and the Horned Frogs wouldn't be where they are today without Hill's leadership and strong play.
Hill is 11th in the country in passer rating and is completing a ridiculous 70.2 percent of his passes. His decision-making has been exemplary, with 15 TDs to just three interceptions, and he has matured greatly.
He tossed five TD passes against Kansas, and said afterward, "Whatever it takes to win, that's what we're going to do."
The Horned Frogs defense is no slouch, ranking third in the country against the run (80.7 ypg) and ninth in points allowed (14.9). They are also first in opponents third down percentage (27.8), so if they can use that and their ability to keep Iowa State's big play offense on the sideline, their march to the Big 12 title game will continue.
Iowa State is the Cinderella story of the league, and while improvement was expected under second-year coach Matt Campbell, few believed the Cyclones would be in the thick of the conference race this late into the season.
Attention to detail and not making mistakes has been ISU's calling card, ranking 10th nationally in turnover margin.
"Our recipe for success is don't make mistakes, don't turn the ball over, force opponents to make some mistakes, and when they do, you got to do a great job of winning situational football," Campbell said. "We can look back for the last three weeks, that's what's worked for us. When we've lost, we've been the ones that made mistakes."
Iowa State has 25 plays between 30 and 59 yards this season, and much of has come in the passing game. The Cyclones average 279 yards per game through the air, with quarterback Kyle Kempt hitting on 69.7 percent of his passes since taking over starting duties three games ago. He has seven TDs to just one interception and isn't afraid to test defenses downfield, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt.
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| Iowa State WR Allen Lazard is a big play force (Iowa Student Daily) |
In Lazard (33-371-5) and Hakeem Butler (16.4 yards per catch, three TDs) he has a pair of tall wideouts, which could pose problems for TCU's active but undersized secondary.
"We've got to contest every shot. It's like you're playing basketball," Patterson said.
David Montgomery is the bulwark of the backfield, averaging 91.7 yards per game with eight touchdowns. He loves picking up the tough yards up the middle and is a threat out of the backfield, with 21 catches.
TCU is active in its 4-2-5 and doesn't have a lot of real weak spots on that side of the ball. Ben Banogu leads the way up front with 4.5 sacks and 8.5 tackles for loss, and safeties Nick Orr and Travin Howard are among the biggest hitters in the conference.
Campbell knows that finding big plays against the Horned Frogs will be a major challenge.
“It’s hard to create matchups against a team like that,” Campbell said. “You have to make plays when they’re out there – and that’s easier said than done.”
Iowa State is solid against the run (120.4 yards per game), led by linebacker Marcel Spears Jr and his 8.7 tackles per game, but has sometimes had problems against good passing teams.
A victory would likely put TCU among the top four teams in the College Football Playoff rankings, which will be unveiled on Halloween night. But that isn't what motivates Patterson or his team.
"I have to win a ballgame for it to matter to us," Patterson said. "Maybe I'll think about that on Sunday. ... We need to make sure that we take care of our business, and we'll see what everybody has to say after that."
While a loss might harm the CFP hopes, it would not necessarily end TCU's goal of winning the Big 12 title. The top two teams will square off in a first-ever championship game, and TCU is very much in the picture for that race.
"If this team can work through and navigate this season with no or one loss ... playing on the road in places we have to go, things you have to do, it truly would be an amazing feat by this group," Patterson said. "It's hard to do."
Iowa State is just 1-10-2 in games where both teams are ranked, and the last time the Cyclones won as a ranked team at home was in 2002 against Missouri.
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