Saturday, September 2, 2017

Week 2 By The Numbers -- Saturday Edition


Week 2 College Football Picks

The first really big weekend of the 2017 college football season, and features games on Saturday, Sunday and Monday -- could life get any better?

 Three games feature a pair of ranked teams, and a host of other matchups have a ranked team on upset alert, facing a non-Power 5 squad that's hungry for respect. The top five games of the week are in the video above, but the rest of the games are featured below.

VIDEO SELECTIONS
(1) Alabama vs. (3) Florida State (at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta)
Line -- Alabama by 7

(11) Michigan vs. (17) Florida (at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas)
Line -- Michigan by 4.5

Maryland at (23) Texas
Line -- Texas by 19

Brigham Young vs (13) LSU (at Superdome, New Orleans)
Line -- LSU -14.5

(21) Virginia Tech vs. (22) West Virginia (Sunday) (at FedEx Field, Landover, Md.)
Line -- Virginia Tech by 4 

SELECTIONS
Western Michigan at (4) USC -- WMU broke a string of 21 straight losses in openers when it upset Northwestern last season; WMU is 7-4 ATS vs. P5 teams since 2012 and 8-2 as away dogs since 2014; USC is 18-1 in L19 home openers, and the last time it started a season at the Coliseum with a loss was 1997 (Florida State); USC is 13-6 ATS as a home favorite since 2014, and 5-4 as a favorite of more than 20 points.
Line -- USC by 27.5; Pick -- USC 38, Western Michigan 22

Appalachian State at (15) Georgia -- AppState is 3-13 in road openers since 2001, including six straight losses; the Mountaineers are 0-7 vs. P5 on the road since beating Michigan in 2007, average loss by 33 ppg; AppState is 4-4-1 as a road dog L3Y; Georgia is 19-1 since 1997 in openers at Sanford Stadium; UGA is just 6-11 ATS as a home fave since 2014, and 2-4 ATS vs. Sun Belt Conference foes since 2012.
Line -- Georgia by 14.5; Pick -- Georgia 27, Appalachian State 17


(16) Louisville vs Purdue (at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis) -- Teams have met once, tying at 22 in 1987; Louisville is 5-3 ATS in neutral site contests and 9-6 ATS vs non-league foes since 2014; Purdue is 1-0 in neutral site games since 2014 and 5-5 ATS vs. non-conference foes in that span; Purdue coach Jeff Brohm played QB at Louisville from 1989-93.
Line -- Louisville by 25; Pick -- Louisville 38, Purdue 24


Wyoming at Iowa -- Cowboys are 1-14 in road openers and has dropped 10 straight games vs. P5 teams (last win vs. Tennessee in 2008); Wyoming 8-6 L3Y as road underdog, including 1-2 vs. B1G since 2012; Iowa is 14-2 in home openers, but only 6-11 as a home fave since 2014. 
Line -- Iowa by 12; Pick -- Wyoming 26, Iowa 21


Bowling Green at Michigan State -- Falcons have gone 8-18 against B1G foes, including 3-2 L3Y; BG is 2-6 in road openers and 5-4-1 ATS as a road dog since 2014; Sparty has won both meetings in the series and has won 18 straight home openers; MSU is 2-4 ATS vs. MAC since 2012 and just 9-10 as a home favorite since 2014; MSU is 4-6 last two seasons ATS as a DD favorite.
Line -- Michigan State by 17; Pick -- Michigan State 30, Bowling Green 22


Miami (Ohio) at Marshall -- RedHawks last win in Huntington was in 1979, and they've had five straight losing trips by an average of 16 ppg; Miami 1-13 in road openers including 9 straight; Miami is a healthy 12-5 ATS as a road dog, and 4-5-2 in games with a line of 1-4 points; Marshall has gone 8-1 in last nine meetings, and is 10-2 in L12 home openers, both losses to West Virginia; Herd is just 8-8-1 ATS as a home fave since 2014 and 4-5-3 in games with a line of 1-4 points.
Line -- Marshall by 2; Pick -- Miami 36, Marshall 33


Cal at North Carolina -- Cal is 7-3 in road openers and has gone 3-4 as a DD underdog since 2014; Bears are 7-6 ATS as road dog since 2014 and 7-2-1 in same span in non-conference action; UNC is 9-1 in home openers, with six straight wins by an average of 35 ppg; UNC has opened season at home vs P5 just three times since 1999, going 0-3 with average loss by 15 ppg; Tar Heels 8-7 as home fave since 2014 and 6-8-1 vs. non-conference teams.
Line -- North Carolina by 12.5; Pick -- North Carolina 33, Cal 27


NC State vs South Carolina (at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC) --Wolfpack hasn't scored an offensive TD in this series since 1991 (last three meetings); NCState is 4-1 L5 season openers, and 11-4 vs. non-conference teams since 2014; Wolfpack 2-1 since 2014 in neutral site games; Gamecocks are 4-1 in L5 season openers, and have won their last four neutral site contests; SC is 7-7 ATS since 2014 vs. non-league teams, including 4-3 SU vs. ACC.
Line -- NC State by 5; Pick -- NC State 26, South Carolina 20


Temple at Notre Dame --Owls have won last 2 ATS vs. Irish, both times as DD underdogs; Temple is 4-12 in road openers and 7-4 ATS L3Y as a road dog; Irish are 17-4 in home openers and have won four of last five season-opening contests, all by at least 22 points; ND 7-8 ATS since 2014 as home favorite and 5-5 ATS as a DD favorite last two seasons.
Line -- Notre Dame by 18.5; Pick -- Notre Dame 30, Temple 24

Troy at Boise State -- Trojans just 3-12 in road openers since gaining FBS status in 2002; Troy 8-4-1 ATS L3Y as road underdog, and has gone 5-1 L2 seasons as a DD underdog; Boise State is just 2-3 SU in last five season opening contests, but has won 15 straight openers by average of 29 ppg; Broncos 5-13 L3Y as home favorite, including 0-for-6 last year.
Line -- Boise State by 10.5; Pick -- Boise State 27, Troy 20


Kentucky at Southern Miss -- Wildcats 5-0 SU in season opener following a bowl game, but just 1-4 the last five years in road openers, falling by average of 18 ppg; UK just 6-7 ATS L3Y vs. non-conference foes; Southern Miss is 15-3 in home openers, but all three losses have been in L5Y; Golden Eagles 4-1 ATS L5 vs SEC, but 7-6-1 L3Y vs. non-conference.
Line -- Kentucky by 10.5; Pick -- Kentucky 31, Southern Miss 28


Arkansas State at Nebraska -- Red Wolves are 1-25-1 in road openers since 1990 and have dropped 8 in a row by average 28 ppg; ASU 3-5 as road dog L3Y, and 3-6 ATS since 2012 vs. P5 schools; Nebraska is 30-1 in home openers since 1985; Huskers 7-7 ATS as DD favorites since 2014 and 8-10-1 as home favorite in that span.
Line -- Nebraska by 14.5; Pick -- Nebraska 34, Arkansas State 23


Vanderbilt at Middle Tennessee -- Vandy has won last two games but has dropped six straight true road openers by 15 ppg, all vs P5 schools; Commodores just 4-5 as road fave since 2007 and 5-8 ATS vs. non-conference in L3Y; Blue Raiders 6-9 in home openers but have won four straight, all vs. FCS teams; MTSU is 3-1 L4Y as home dog and 8-11 ATS vs. non-league in that span.
Line -- Vanderbilt by 3; Pick -- Middle Tennessee 30, Vanderbilt 28


Texas A&M at UCLA (Sunday) -- Aggies 3-2 vs Bruins but have never played in Rose Bowl; A&M has won five straight road openers by average of 23 ppg and is 3-5 ATS L3Y as a road underdog; Bruins are 17-2 in home openers, with last loss in 2010 to Stanford; UCLA just 5-10 ATS as home fave L3Y
Line -- UCLA by 3.5; Pick -- UCLA 27, Texas A&M 23


(25) Tennessee vs Georgia Tech (Monday, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta) -- Vols are 14-3-1 SU since 1967 vs. Tech, but teams haven't played since 1987; Tennessse is 3-0 when starting season at neutral site, with average margin of 28 ppg; Tennessee has won four straight neutral site games; Tech is 3-1 L3Y in neutral site contests and 9-5 in same span vs. non-conference foes.
Line -- Tennessee by 3; Pick -- Tennessee 33, Georgia Tech 23

Friday Night Picks
SU -- 3-2, 13-2 Overall; ATS -- 2-3, 7-8 Overall

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