We had one of those this past weekend, as marquee matchups between Notre Dame/USC and Penn State/Michigan turned into curb stomps. We it not for some drama from Miami and a down-to-the-wire ending between Oklahoma and Kansas State, it would have been a very uneventful weekend.
Fans can get through those letdowns because of weekends like the one upcoming -- four, count 'em, four games featuring ranked teams, highlighted by a B1G showdown in the Horseshoe between the league's two best teams, No. 2 Penn State and No. 6 Ohio State. Throw in a couple of interesting Big 12 games (which we will get to shortly) and a de facto CFP elimination game in South Bend between North Carolina State and Notre Dame, and you have the possibility for one of the most dramatic weekends in recent memory.
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| Ohio State hosts Penn State Saturday in a marquee B1G showdown (Eleven Warriors) |
It isn't often that there are this many high-stakes contests this late in the season, so the football gods have smiled on fans.
Should Penn State lose, it will fall behind the Buckeyes in the race for the East Division crown, and should the Buckeyes win out the Nittany Lions will have major problems regaining traction because their schedule ends with Michigan State, Rutgers, Nebraska and Maryland. Not many opportunities to class up the resume. OSU, meanwhile, has Michigan State and Michigan yet to play, and while we still don't know a lot about Sparty, and while Michigan looks pretty average, both are, for the moment, marquee games. No Penn State in the B1G title game means no shot at the CFP, if both they and the Buckeyes have one loss.
Should the Buckeyes lose, their season would, for all intents and purposes, be over. Urban Meyer aims for more than just league titles, he aims for national titles, and has three in his pocket already. Two losses would end any shot at OSU making the playoff, and probably mean no top tier bowl game, either. At many schools two losses would be a wonderful season, but Ohio State is not one of those. So there is probably a bit more on the line for Ohio State in this game, but it isn't without peril for the visitors, to be sure.
It will be great to see the atmosphere in Columbus, because if there's one thing Buckeye Nation knows how to do, it's host a big game. The fans will be off the hook, even for a non-prime time kickoff, and will hope that the team gives them reason to keep cheering.
It will be great to see Saquon Barkley against an OSU defense which allows just 2.93 yards per rush, and which has limited opponents to just 17 gains of 10+ yards, nine of 20+ and three of 30+. Michigan came into its tilt with Penn State with glowing numbers against the run, but had actually allowed more explosive runs by opponents than the Buckeyes have. Barkley is in the top 10 in most explosive run categories, so it will be a game within a game to see which side gains the upper hand.
It will be intriguing to see if the improvement shown by OSU quarterback J.T. Barrett is real, or completely a byproduct of the Buckeyes playing poor pass defenses. There is no doubt some of that is involved, but Barrett does look like a different player throwing the ball then he did against Oklahoma. Bad foes or not, Barrett is now going through progressions instead of tapping the ball and running, leading receivers and, maybe most importantly, pushing it downfield, which was his big knock. PSU hasn't allowed a passing touchdown for two straight games, and has given up just four plays of 30+ yards through the air. I do think the Buckeyes will be able to run on PSU, especially with Barrett's dual capabilities. But the Buckeyes will need to make some plays through the air if they are to win the game.
OSU has won four of the last five in the series, and four straight in Columbus, but only eight times since 2002 has the home team come out ahead. So there are plenty of storylines to follow in this one, and if the game lives up even halfway to the hype surrounding it, it will be a classic.
Not to be outdone, Notre Dame hosts North Carolina State, and with little hope of a monsoon drifting into South Bend (see last year's game in Raleigh) the Irish could be ready to exact some revenge on a Wolfpack squad that has rebounded nicely from an unexpected opening loss to South Carolina. Both teams have a defeat, so the loser here basically goes home, at least as far as the playoff is concerned.
The Big 12 will have its Judgment Day, with unbeaten TCU heading to Ames to take on -- can it be? -- resurgent Iowa State, and Oklahoma State goes travels to Morgantown to take on Will Grier and his crew.
TCU already has victories over Oklahoma State and WVU, but has Texas and Oklahoma the next two weekends, so it isn't out of the woods just yet. The Horned Frogs certainly control their Big 12 destiny, especially if they keep winning. Iowa State hasn't won seven games since the 2009 season, and hasn't been in the mix for league honors since 2004-05, when they finished first and second in the North Division. The Cyclones have beaten TCU just once, and it is a tall order, but as we have seen with the Big 12 (and other conferences), anything can happen.
Oklahoma State and West Virginia each have one loss in conference play, so, barring complete turmoil in November, the loser would be out of the running for the league title game. The Cowboys are unbeaten on the road this year, and West Virginia hasn't lost at home, so something will have to give. Expect a lot of points as both teams love to air it out.
Here's hoping that this weekend turns out to be more compelling than the one that just finished, especially with the big games.
It would make everything that's come before seem worth it.
Four Is Fine
I've been seeing a lot of Twitter discussion about how much people love the College Football Playoff, but that it could be so much better if it jumped from four teams to eight.
Don't count me as one of those people, because I believe the playoff is perfect as it is.
Some may argue about the process, and though there are flaws, it is tons better than the BCS ever was. A committee knows much more about football than pollsters and computers, which is why the first three years of the playoff have been right on the money.
Among eight team proposals, the most logical would be including all Power 5 champions, and three wild cards, which is all right on the surface, but is there any real criteria for what the wild cards can be? Is there a limit to the number of teams one conference can have? Must a Group of Five team be included? Will the Playoff expand to six hours?
Four is a great number, for myriad reasons -- it keeps the regular season special, allows teams that slip up once to get back on track but doesn't allow for a second loss. It rewards teams that have played in stronger leagues -- why is a given that all of the Power 5 conferences be included, especially since they are not of equal strength (we're looking at you, Pac-12)? Going into the season not knowing which conference(s) will be left out of the mix adds to the drama, and makes each weekend more exciting.
A big reason why many, including myself, are against eight teams, is because it begins to water down the field. Do we really need a bunch of two loss teams in the playoff? Assuming a Group of Five team is mandated to be in, this is what last year's field would have looked like --
-- Alabama
-- Clemson
-- Ohio State
-- Washington
Those were the four teams with one or fewer losses, which made a nice little line of demarcation. After that quartet, you would have had, based on remaining CFP standings:
-- Penn State
-- Michigan
-- Oklahoma
-- Western Michigan
So that would have provided an OSU/Michigan rematch and an Alabama/Western Michigan bloodbath. Maybe PSU/Washington and Clemson/Oklahoma would have been entertaining -- but they wouldn't be necessary, because Penn State and Oklahoma lost twice.
Adding a layer to the playoffs does two things -- it puts health at a premium, with more games meaning more chance for injury, and it raises the possibility that a "hot team" gets enough momentum to upset the apple cart and win the crown. Do we want this to turn into the NCAA Basketball Tournament, where the best team doesn't always win, but the hottest often does? Does anyone really think the 69th best basketball team really has a legit shot to cut down the nets, or even deserves that chance? So why would the eighth or ninth best football team have that chance?
The College Football Playoff isn't about finding the "hottest" teams, it's about finding the best teams. With four entrants, the possibility of messing things up is very slim. With eight, it becomes higher. A two loss team that maybe reels off five straight to close the season is to be admired, but that doesn't mean it deserves a shot at the brass ring. You want in? Don't lose two games.
And yes, the committee got it right last year by including Ohio State over Penn State, despite the Nittany Lions head to head win and Big Ten championship.
Critics say that the committee always talks about the value of a conference title, and that should definitely mean something. However, nothing is written into the bylaws about it meaning automatic inclusion into the field, and the committee compares teams with like records against each other, which is why it saw Penn State a notch below the Buckeyes.
Ohio State had the edge in strength of schedule (29 to 40), Strength of Record (2 to 5) and Game Control (5 to 37), and also had an edge in another important category -- losses. Folks who say losses don't matter -- they do. Maybe not as much as wins, but they do matter. Penn State had the same number of wins as the Buckeyes, a league title and a head to head win, but also had two losses. The committee grouped all of the one-loss teams together for comparison, and put them in a tier above the two loss teams.
In 2015, there was one unbeaten -- Clemson -- and five one-loss Power 5 teams -- Alabama, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Iowa and Ohio State. Michigan State beat OSU in the regular season, and knocked off Iowa for the Big Ten crown, so that one was pretty easy.
Only 2014 provides a quibble, and even that one is easily solved. Florida State was unbeaten and in, and Alabama and Oregon made it as league champions. That left Ohio State, Baylor and TCU as remaining one-loss teams, and the Buckeyes, by virtue of a B1G title game win over Wisconsin, was a conference champion -- something the Big 12 didn't have, as it declared Baylor and TCU co-champs, failing to give the committee one champion to compare to the others. A case can be made that, by declaring both teams as Big 12 champs, TCU was eliminated because it lost to Baylor straight up. Baylor's SOS of 57 was the lowest of any of the one-loss teams, so choosing Ohio State instead wasn't wacky.
It is evident that the committee, while trying to stay true to picking the four best teams, has contradicted itself a bit. Most of the analytics would have taken Baylor and/or TCU ahead of the Buckeyes in 2014, so that lack of a true conference champion proved to be the sticking point. Pointing to Penn State last year and saying the committee didn't value championships as much isn't the same argument because, again, the Nittany Lions had two losses to Ohio State's one.
One other reason to keep it at four is expense to the fans.
As it currently stands, fans can attend the semifinals, and then maybe find a way to get to the finals. With another layer of games, it would be nearly impossible to attend all three rounds, and that's pretty important. Doing things that keep true fans away is not a good thing.
While I am against eight teams, I fully expect it to happen at some point, though not in the immediate future. It won't be the end of the world by any means.
But it will make the CFP just a bit less special.
Paring Things Down
There are currently eight unbeatens, but that number will shrink due to regular season contests (USF/UCF) and possible league title games (Penn State/Wisconsin, Alabama-Georgia). So at most, we will end up with five unbeatens -- though more likely one or two.
There are also a baker's dozen one-loss teams, so the race to the CFP finish line is no doubt going to be an exciting one.
A victory by UMass over Georgia Southern gave the Minutemen their first win of the season, and reduced the number of winless squads to just three -- Baylor, UTEP and the aforementioned Georgia Southern.
Wonder what is more likely to happen -- more unbeateans, or more winless?
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