TOP GAMES
(12) Oklahoma vs. Texas (at Dallas)
ANALYSIS
An angry Oklahoma is a dangerous Oklahoma, and you can bet the Sooners will be seething after losing at home to Iowa State last week. Texas could be on the bad end of things, but has looked better each week, which isn't surprising given Tom Herman's track record. The Longhorns will need to figure out a way to keep Baker Mayfield from having a field day, but that may be tough as Texas allows 249 passing yards per game. Texas is young and has depth issues, but this is an odd game. UT has come in unranked the last four meetings, against a ranked Sooners squad, and twice pulled off the upset.
Line -- Oklahoma -9; Pick -- Oklahoma 33-30
(10) Auburn at LSU
ANALYSIS
Auburn starts a road swing that will have them away from Jordan-Hare until mid-November, and starting the road trip off with a swing through Baton Rouge isn't exactly a favor. Auburn is the better team on paper, but we know what they say about paper, right? LSU has won seven of the last 10 meetings, and all three losses were at Auburn. LSU has something to prove, and the tenacity shown last week in a win over Florida was a good start. Look for LSU's offense to evolve even more this week, though there is a big question about whether the Oline can block Auburn's swarming defensive front. Auburn's run game is producing big time (22nd nationally, 18 TDs), and QB Jarrett Stidham has been efficient in the passing game. This one has all of the makings of your typical, wild Saturday afternoon SEC slugfest.
Line -- Auburn -7.5; Pick -- LSU 27-26
(25) Navy at Memphis
ANALYSIS
Speaking of defensive battles -- wait, we're on the wrong game. Defense is a dirty word to both of these teams, who each possess the ability to light up the scoreboard. Zach Abey and company could feast on a Memphis defense that ranks 94th against the run, while Riley Ferguson should have plenty of time to look for Anthony Miller and myriad other targets against a Navy pass defense that allows nearly 230 yards per game. The Middies are having their typical under the radar season, while Memphis has a hint of desperation having already lost a conference game. That adds up to must see TV -- at least for the 27 people who have CBS Sports Network.
Line -- Memphis -3.5; Pick -- Navy 44-38
OTHER GAMES
Florida State at Duke -- In most years this game wouldn't be working picking, as Florida State has won 19 in a row. But a stagnant offense, against a Duke defense that has been very good most of the season -- there's some actual intrigue. The Blue Devils have been their own worst enemy in losses to Miami and Virginia, turning the ball over four times and converting less than 30 percent on third down. FSU has some injuries, but more overall talent and depth. FSU QB James Blackman is starting to get comfortable, and Derwin James and crew can still ball out on defense.
Line -- Florida State -7.5; Pick -- Florida State 24-13
(20) NC State at Pitt -- A game of contrasts at quarterback -- NCState has Ryan Finley, who has yet to throw an interception this season, while Pitt has the untested Ben DiNucci, who takes the place of injured Max Browne. NCState has the athletes, the confidence and a bye week ahead, so there won't be any lack of concentration. Pittsburgh has won the last four meetings at home, including a 34-0 shutout last time (in 1987).
Line -- NCState -11; Pick -- NC State 35-14
(17) Michigan at Indiana -- Is Michigan overrated, or is Michigan State vastly improved? We probably won't know the answer to either question for another couple of weeks, but the Spartans were the better team last week. Michigan has problems generating points, and against an explosive offense like Indiana's that could be a concern. Factor in that UM faces Penn State next weekend and you could be looking at some wandering minds. Peyton Ramsey has been solid at quarterback, and don't be surprised if Mike DeBord has a few surprises in store for the Wolverines defense. Taking the ball out of the hands of QB John O'Korn and focusing on the ground game might be the wise approach for the Fighting Harbaughs.
Line -- Michigan -8; Pick -- Michigan 24-20
(24) Texas Tech at West Virginia -- Two offenses ranked in the top 10 in scoring, led by quarterbacks who know how to sling it? As Maximus said, "are you not entertained? is this not why you are here?" Fans of defense, look elsewhere. Everyone else, enjoy the fun. Tech has won just five of its last 15 conference road games while the Mountaineers have won three straight in the series.
Line -- West Virginia -3.5; Pick -- West Virginia 48-41
(6) TCU at Kansas State -- The Horned Frogs Revenge Tour continues, and the Wildcats are next in line. TCU has already turned the tables on Arkansas, Oklahoma State and West Virginia, and since K-State won a non-thrilling 30-6 contests last year, it would make sense that Gary Patterson's bunch has another circled game. KSU lost dual threat QB Jesse Ertz last week, which means Alex Delton gets his first career start. It's a tough spot for Delton, especially against a TCU defense which allows less than 20 points per game.
Line -- TCU -6.5; Pick -- TCU 36-21
South Carolina at Tennessee -- We only included this game because it's another chance to pile on Butch Jones. Some people might tell you the Vols aren't that bad, but they would be wrong. There is little flow on offense, and with some reports stating that backup QB Quentin Dormady has left the program the turmoil level has gone up even higher. South Carolina scored three times on defense last week against Arkansas, and Tennessee is ranked 104th in turnover margin this season. Hey, at least the Vols are still life champions, right? The visitor has won just twice in the last 10 meetings, but we do not care about such trivial numbers.
Line -- Tennessee -3; Pick -- South Carolina 30-23
Virginia at North Carolina -- So, does North Carolina have a real football team, or a fake football team? Hard to know what is and isn't real in Chapel Hill these days. What is real is Virginia's defense, ranked 25th nationally and led by LB Micah Kiser and S Quin Blanding. You'll see those guys on Sundays in the near future, and it doesn't appear that the Tar Heels have the horses to counter the Cavaliers stop unit. North Carolina has won seven in a row in the series.
Line -- Virginia -3.5; Pick -- Virginia 26-17
Northwestern at Maryland -- Maryland, it was nice knowing you. What started out as a promising campaign has gotten ugly really fast. The Terps allowed 62 points to Ohio State last weekend, and face a Northwestern team that, while challenged offensively, is solid against the run. Since Maryland has shown it can't throw the ball with QB Max Bortenschlager, the Wildcats appear to have the edge. Maryland is 6-17 in conference home games.
Line -- Northwestern -3.5; Pick -- Northwestern 28-16
Purdue at (7) Wisconsin -- Purdue showed some moxie in knocking off Minnesota last weekend, but Wisconsin is a bit of a step up. Still, do we really know how good the Badgers are? They have played absolutely no one of substance, so the defensive numbers -- which have them seventh in the country -- could be skewed. Jeff Brohm is savvy enough that he will show Wisconsin some different looks, and he isn't afraid to go wild every now and again. The Badgers are pretty one dimensional on offense, though that dimension has been frightening of late, as running back Jonathan Taylor has scored five times in the last three games, going over 200 yards twice. Purdue has lost the last nine meetings by an average of 17 points.
Line -- Wisconsin -17.5; Pick -- Wisconsin 34-19
Georgia Tech at (13) Miami -- A contrast in styles, with Georgia Tech wanting to control the clock and Miami wanting to convert the big play. Tech QB Taquon Marshall ranks eighth nationally in rushing with nine TDs, and Tech grinds out nearly 400 yards per game on the ground, second best in the country. Miami will be without RB Mark Walton, who is out for the season with an ankle injury, which means more of the onus will fall to quarterback Malik Rosier, who faces a stingy Georgia Tech pass defense. This one has all the makings of an upset -- a Miami team that looks to be back, with an easy game the following week against Syracuse. You think I won't do it? Watch me.
Line -- Miami -6.5; Pick -- Georgia Tech 31-28
Texas A&M at Florida -- A&M's first-ever SEC game was against Florida in 2012, won 20-17 by the Gators. That Aggies team wasn't nearly as explosive as this one, and Florida takes way too much effort to score points. Florida's secondary is one of the best in the nation, but has yet to face a player as dynamic as Christian Kirk, who averages over 15 yards per play and has six touchdowns. Throw in the fact that Florida hasn't seen a quarterback with the running ability of Kellen Mond and it could be a long day in Gainesville. If Florida's offense is ever going to bust out, it could be this week as A&M's defense is allowing over 5.6 yards per play. Florida is just 5-14 vs. the SEC West since 2010, losing 8 of the last 10.
Line -- Florida -3; Pick -- Texas A&M 26-21
(21) Michigan State at Minnesota -- Now we'll see if Sparty is really back, or if it was just able to get up for rival Michigan. Like last week, Sparty faces a team with a solid defense -- Minnesota ranks 22nd nationally -- but not much offense -- Gophers are 97th. Brian Lewerke continues to impress at QB for the Green, and the Gophers D appears to be regressing, allowing over 50 percent on third down conversions in consecutive losses to Maryland and Purdue. Sparty has won four straight, holding Minnesota under 10 points in three of those games.
Line -- Michigan State -4.5; Pick -- Michigan State 23-10
(9) Ohio State at Nebraska -- The names say the game is a dandy, but the performances this season say otherwise. The Buckeyes have won four in a row, while Nebraska is licking its wounds from a 38-17 home loss to Wisconsin. Nebraska is 54th in tackles for loss allowed, while the Buckeyes lead the nation in stops behind the line of scrimmage (57). Huskers QB Tanner Lee has been very average, tossing 11 TDs to 10 INTs -- four of which have been returned for touchdowns. Nebraska really isn't outstanding in anything, except maybe the receiving corps, while the Buckeyes are the only team in the country in the top 10 in both scoring offense and scoring defense. QB JT Barrett has been stellar the last three weeks, putting up QBRs above 90 in each game - albeit against UNLV, Rutgers and Maryland. Nebraska is better, and LB Chris Weber is a talent. There has been too much talk swirling about Mike Riley's job security, and there isn't enough depth for the Huskers to stay competitive against OSU. Nebraska is on a 4-14 run vs ranked teams.
Line -- Ohio State -24; Pick -- Ohio State 45-23
Utah at (13) USC -- Well, well, well, looky what we have here -- Utah is sixth in the nation in interceptions, and USC QB Sam Darnold has been handing them out like candy at Halloween, throwing at least one pick in every game this season. USC has had big problems on the offensive line, and Utah has the personnel to cause problems and take Darnold off of his sets. USC is much better offensively at home, averaging over 7 yards per play and 39 points, nearly 11 points better than their road performances. Utah is physical and will be able to create some problems, but, outside of receiver Darren Carrington, there doesn't appear to be enough firepower on Utah's side to come out ahead. the Utes have gone 14-5 on the road since 2014 but have lost by double digits in each of their last two trips to Los Angeles.
Line -- USC -13; Pick -- USC 34-27
UCLA at Arizona -- The Wildcats are an impressive 3-2, beating Colorado on the road last week and losing to a good Houston team by just three points early in September. Khalil Tate set an FBS rushing record for quarterbacks with 327 yards against the Buffs, and should get the nod against a Bruins defense that ranks 129th out of 130 teams nationally against the run. That means it could be up to Josh Rosen to keep UCLA's offense humming, and it could happen against a UA defense that ranks 106th in passing yards allowed. Rosen has thrown four of his five interceptions this season away from home, but Arizona has allowed 31 or more points in four of the last five meetings. We have dual coaching hot seat watches in this game, with Jim Mora leading Rich Rodriguez by a slight margin.
Line -- UCLA -2.5; Pick -- Arizona 34-31
New Mexico at Fresno State -- The Lobos are more explosive on offense and allow fewer yards per play (albeit by a negligible margin), yet are underdogs? Help me out here. New Mexico gets it done on the ground with a host of runners, most notably Richard McQuarley (just under 6 YPC and 5 TDs). The Lobos had six rushing touchdowns last week against Air Force, but face a Fresno State team that has allowed just six TD runs all season. The freshman combo of Ronnie Rivers and Jordan Mims has been solid for the Bulldogs, and QB Marcus McMaryion (formerly of Oregon State) has completed nearly 70 percent of his passes, with just one pick. Fresno has won nine of the last 10 meetings. It will be interesting to see just how much Lobos coach Bob Davie berates his players and coaches, since that's one thing he's extremely good at.
Line -- Fresno State -1; Pick -- New Mexico 34-27
Boise State at (19) San Diego State -- The Aztecs beat Boise in the last home meeting (2013), and will get tested by a Broncos defense that ranks 19th in the nation against the run. I mention that because the Aztecs will lean on Heisman candidate Rashaad Penny, the nation's third leading rusher at 165.5 yards per game, early and often. The Aztecs are unbeaten, yet believe themselves to be the underdog based on Boise's history and prominence in the Mountain West. San Diego State has been pretty good on defense, and should present problems for Boise's offensively challenged squad. Boise is 13-6 away from home since 2014, but the Aztecs have been very protective of their home turf, losing just three times in their last 23 home tilts.
Line -- San Diego State -5; Pick -- San Diego State 34-24
Oregon at (23) Stanford -- The Cardinal have won three of the last five meetings, including upsetting the Ducks #1 and #2 squads in consecutive years (2012-13), and enter this one on a three game winning streak. Oregon has questions at quarterback after losing Justin Herbert to a collarbone injury, but could have success against a Stanford defense uncharacteristically ranked in the 100s. It will be a test for Bryce Love, who leads the nation in rushing with over 1200 yards, going against an Oregon rush defense ranked 10th in the nation, allowing just 2.83 yards per carry. Love has eight straight games with at least one 50-yard run, and will need him to run wild as there are still questions at quarterback. Oregon leads the country in sacks and is sixth in tackles for loss, and injuries along Stanford's offensive line could be just enough for the Ducks defense to make some plays.
Line -- Stanford -10; Pick -- Stanford 40-34
2017 RECORD
SU -- Week (W/TH/F) 1-3, Season 89-28; ATS -- Week 2-2, Season 75-62-1
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