Quick note before getting to this week's games -- what genius at the TV networks decided that starting the weekend's three marquee games at the same time was a good idea (not to mention Georgia/Florida)? Separate time slots means better ratings all around -- couldn't one have been pushed to noon and the other into an evening slot? It's not like TCU is coming off a .7 rating or anything .... oh wait.
Anyway, end of rant. On to the games.
TOP GAMES
(2) Penn State at (6) Ohio State
ANALYSIS
A lot has been made about Ohio State's offensive improvement, much of it centered on the Buckeyes playing a string of soft touches. And that's fair. However, why isn't the same being said about Penn State? Just whom have the Nittany Lions beaten? And is their top 10 defense a byproduct of facing offenses with an average rank of 95? We're about to find out. Make no mistake, Penn State can bring it -- Saquon Barkley is a highlight reel, tight end Mike Gesecki is a freakish athlete, and the defense plays about as well together as any unit in the country. Penn State is aggressive on defense and loves to bring safety Marcus Allen up into the box -- which could leave the middle seam open for J.T. Barrett (who hasn't turned the ball over since the Oklahoma game) to hit something quick. Defensively, the Buckeyes would be wise to put most of their efforts into stopping Barkley -- easier said than done -- and see if Trace McSorley can beat them. If OSU can keep McSorley in the pocket, it wins. If it lets him get outside, then it could be a long night. Look for Urban Meyer to bring out a few new wrinkles off the bye week, including having J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber on the field at the same time. While the Nittany Lions have the BEST player, the Buckeyes have MORE players. PSU is 2-9 in its last 11 trips to Columbus while the Buckeyes are 23-2 in their last 25 home games. Meyer is 21-1 off of bye weeks in his years as head coach, going back to Bowling Green, including winning 20 straight.
Line -- Ohio State -6.5; Pick -- Ohio State 38-28
(14) North Carolina State at (9) Notre Dame
ANALYSIS
No fancy stuff here, this one will be all about the trenches -- Notre Dame has nation's sixth best rushing offense and NC State has the sixth best rushing defense. The Irish will want to get Josh Adams going early, and having Brandon Wimbush as a running threat could pose a few problems for NC State. So whoever wins that battle wins the game. It's not that simple, obviously, but if the Wolfpack can get up early and unleash the hounds -- Bradley Chubb and crew -- the Irish could be in a world of hurt because they simply don't have the passing attack to play catch-up. Notre Dame will have to find a way to knock NC State QB Ryan Finley off rhythm, but that's easier said than done since he hasn't thrown an interception in over 300 passes. Jaylen Samuels will be all over the place in the passing game, and Nyheim Hines has really come along running the football. You know both teams will be bringing it because each knows that the loser is out of the race for the College Football Playoff. It looks like the Irish might be getting just a tad overvalued here.
Line -- Notre Dame -7.5; Pick -- North Carolina State 28-23
(4) TCU at (25) Iowa State
ANALYSIS
You have to assume more eyes will be on this one than on last weekend's TCU game (see above), but the challenge will be greater, too. Matt Campbell has the Cyclones playing well above their talent level, and that means the Horned Frogs will need to be ready to go from the outset. TCU is 3-0 on the road this season, holding two of those opponents to seven points or less. ISU has been getting it done with opportunistic turnovers and a solid defense, and will have the belief it can get this one done. TCU would be wise to air it out, and with KaVontae Turpin and Jalen Reagor have two guys that could create nightmares for the Cyclones subpar pass defense. TCU could find the going a bit tougher on the ground, but it has grown enough this season that if one thing isn't working, it goes to another. The Cyclones tall, physical receiving corps, led by future NFL star Allen Lazard, could cause some problems for TCU's secondary. Iowa State hasn't won at home as a ranked team since beating Missouri in 2002, and will likely see that streak continue.
Line -- TCU -6.5; Pick -- TCU 34-30
OTHER GAMES
(11) Oklahoma State at (22) West Virginia -- Everyone is expecting a shootout here, and with TD pass leader Will Grier on one side and yardage leader Mason Rudolph on the other, it just might happen. Injuries have hampered the Cowboys, who scored just 13 points last week against Texas and got really conservative with the play calling. WVU got up big before allowing Baylor to score 23 points in the fourth quarter, and escaped by two points. The more aggressive team will win here, and neither is afraid to take shots downfield. OSU has James Washington and WVU has David Sills, and both are among the most explosive receivers in the country. The winner will still be in the race for the Big 12 title, while the loser will absorb a second loss and all but fall out of the picture.
Line -- Oklahoma State -7.5; Pick -- Oklahoma State 38-33
Louisville at Wake Forest -- Want to know why Wake has dropped three in a row? Easy -- it can't produce any offense, and can no longer stop anyone. Early in the season Wake was making life difficult for opponents, but no longer. You can bet Lamar and friends will be on a high after its last second win over Florida State last weekend -- and yes, it feels good to beat the Noles, even when they aren't as strong as usual. If Wake can get back to running the football and taking time off the clock it can create some problems for a Cards D that hasn't always responded to toughness.
Line -- Louisville -3; Pick -- Wake Forest 28-27
Florida International at Marshall -- The Thundering Herd have been thundering over foes, winning five straight and playing some of the best defense no one knows about. Marshall ranks 21st in total defense, and has allowed more than 10 points just once in the last five games. FIU isn't bad defensively, but just cannot score -- 17 or fewer in three of the last four games. Look for Chase Hancock and his crew to have a big game and shut down Butch Davis' Panthers.
Line -- Marshall -17; Pick -- Marshall 35-13
UCLA at (12) Washington -- This has been a surprisingly lopsided series, with the Bruins winning 13 of the last 16, including 44-30 in the last matchup in 2014. Washington scored seven points in its last game and suffered a slew of injuries, including critical ones in the secondary. That has to make Josh Rosen's eyes light up, no? The Bruins are last in America at stopping the run and have allowed an average of 51 points in three road losses this season. The Huskies will want to make a statement, especially at home and especially with the North Division crown still in play.
Line -- Washingon -18; Pick -- Washington 45-35
(3) Georgia vs. Florida (at Jacksonville) -- It's odd that this game is about fourth or fifth on the excitement meter this week, but that's more because of the state of the Florida program than anything else. Gators Jim McElwain added some drama to the week by claiming he and his coaches have received death threats, but then would not elaborate when asked about it by his superiors. This is the just the latest in a season of turmoil in Gainesville, much of it self-created. We know that Georgia always finds a way to make this one closer than it has to be, or loses outright when it has no business doing so. But that can't happen this time -- can it? Florida has won 21 of the past 26 meetings.
Line -- Georgia -13.5; Pick -- Georgia 38-21
(16) Michigan State at Northwestern -- Everyone keeps waiting for Sparty to slip up, believing they are doing it with mirrors. I mean, there's no way a team with this little offense can keep winning, right? Well, if they continue to play defense as they have been (fourth nationally) they sure can. Northwestern has gotten it together after a slow start and might have turned around its season after knocking off Iowa a week ago. MSU had to bus to Evanston after its plane was grounded, so did not get a chance for a walkthrough on Friday -- which means it could be slow to get going. This should be another game that's appreciated by B1G purists -- meaning scoring will be at a premium. The visitor has won nine of the last 10 meetings.
Line -- Michigan State -2.5; Pick -- Michigan State 20-15
Houston at (17) South Florida -- The Bulls are one of eight unbeatens, but aren't getting much respect due to a schedule that ranks near the bottom of FBS. Even so, that doesn't change the fact that Quinton Flowers is still one of the more dynamic playmakers in the country, throwing for 12 touchdowns and running for seven more. The Bulls are ranked in the top 20 in both total offense and total defense, so there is a lot of balance. Houston has lost two straight, giving up over 40 points in both contests. Major Applewhite's first season has not gone quite to plan, but the Cougars would love nothing more than to upset USF's bid for national acclaim.
Line -- South Florida -11; Pick -- South Florida 36-23
Florida Atlantic at Western Kentucky -- Lane Kiffin's squad has exploded offensively the last few weeks, putting up 38, 58 and 69 points. That means more publicity for Lane, which he loves. The Hilltoppers have been under the radar despite winning four in a row, getting it done with defense. Mike White has been solid as usual at quarterback, tossing 12 TDs to just 4 INTs. WKU has injuries in its secondary, which could lead to another high scoring day for the Owls.
Line -- Florida Atlantic -6.5; Pick -- Florida Atlantic 48-40
Utah at Oregon -- This could be called the "Offenses Going South" showdown, as neither team has been able to put much together recently. Utah has dropped three straight and Oregon has done the same, but the Ducks best scoring output in those games was 14 last week against a historically bad UCLA defense. If Oregon can't get it done against the Bruins, how is it going to accomplish anything against the Utes, which has a pretty solid stop unit? Last time here Utah put up 62 points, but Ducks have a way of surprising
Line -- Utah -3; Pick -- Oregon 29-24
Minnesota at Iowa -- The best trophy in America -- a bronzed pig named Floyd of Rosedale -- is on the line here, which means nothing else need be said. Minnesota hasn't won in Iowa City since 1999, but the games have usually been pretty competitive. When there's a pig on the line, what else would you expect? Look for Iowa to pass a bit more than usual to exploit an inconsistent Minnesota secondary.
Line -- Iowa -7; Pick -- Iowa 24-16
UAB at Southern Miss -- These are typically wild games, including overtimes and last-second finishes. This one could be the same, especially if Blazers QB A.J. Erdely plays as he has been. The junior with a big arm has eight TDs to just two INTs and has completed over 65 percent in two of the last three games. The Golden Eagles have talented Ito Smith in the backfield, and UAB must be tuned in to stopping him from running all over the place. UAB has won five of the last six meetings.
Line -- Southern Miss -12.5; Pick -- UAB 31-28
Mississippi State at Texas A&M -- Two teams looking to become bowl eligible square off in College Station, and both feature excellent dual threat quarterbacks. The Bulldogs have the electric Nick Fitzgerald and the Aggies have the improving Kellen Mond. Both teams will want to control the clock, which means it could come down to one team hitting an explosive play or two. Bulldogs, say hello to Christian Kirk.
Line -- Mississippi State -2.5; Pick -- Texas A&M 27-23
Duke at (13) Virginia Tech -- Almost no one talks about this series, but if you're looking for down to the wire, you couldn't do any better. The last four games have been decided by three points or fewer, and the cumulative score is 95-94 in favor of Duke. The visitor has won each of the last four times, but Duke's offense has stagnated in recent weeks, and that's not a good thing against the Hokies. Tech has won four of its last five, scoring 38 or more in three of the games. Joshua Jackson to Cam Phillips is one of the most lethal combos in the ACC, and given Duke's shaky play against the pass in recent weeks, that pair could be in line for big things.
Line -- Virginia Tech -15.5; Pick -- Virginia Tech 38-17
Georgia Tech at (7) Clemson -- Tech is just two points from being unbeaten, yet seems like a real long shot to knock off the Tigers. For one thing, Clemson has gone 78 games without losing twice in a row. And for another, the Tigers are 10-0 following a defeat dating back to 2011. With a week to have gotten healthy and regrouped, Clemson should be ready for a big stretch run. Clemson's run D is strong and should be able to contain Georgia Tech's rushing enough just enough. Clemson has won four of the last five and has held Tech to 166 yards on 80 carries in the last two games.
Line -- Clemson -14; Pick -- Clemson 37-21
Texas Tech at (10) Oklahoma -- Ever wonder if Baker Mayfield has a voodoo doll of Kliff Kingsbury that he occasionally punches, or pokes with a stick pin? Kingsbury was coach when Mayfield was a walk-on for the Red Raiders and apparently wasn't smart enough to see that Mayfield was the most talented quarterback on the roster. Tech has lost three of its last four games, and five straight to Oklahoma, which still controls its destiny in the Big 12 race. The Sooners have put up 42, 63 and 66 in the last three meetings, and given the state of the Red Raiders defense it could be more of the same.
Line -- Oklahoma -20; Pick -- Oklahoma 49-24
(15) Washington State at Arizona -- Even though they'll go about it differently, this one is all about the quarterbacks. Wazzu has Luke Falk, who wants to throw it all over the place, and Arizona has Khalil Tate, who is worth staying up late to watch. Tate has averaged over 15 yards per carry in three starts and has put the Wildcats on the brink of bowl eligibility in a season when little was expected. It should be an interesting test for Tate, as Wazzu has a very good rushing defense, including DT Hercules Mata'afa and LB Frankie Luvu up the middle.
Line -- Washington State -2.5; Pick -- Arizona 40-38
(21) USC at Arizona State -- USC has lost its last two road games, and now heads to Tempe to face a surging Sun Devils squad that has designs on the Pac-12 South Division crown. The two-headed monster of Kalen Ballage and Demario Richard could be trouble for the Trojans, who have been pounded by good rushing teams. ASU has back to back wins over Washington and Utah and seems to be gaining confidence by the week. The teams have split the last six meetings.
Line -- USC -3.5; Pick -- Arizona State 38-35
2017 RECORD
SU -- Week (TH/F) 6-1, Season 163-49; ATS -- Week (TH/F) 2-5, Season 115-95-2
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