TOP GAMES
(23) West Virginia at (8) TCU
TRENDS
WVU is 3-1 ATS in L4 vs. Horned Frogs; Mountaineers just 1-5 ATS in L6 contests and 4-10 ATS L14 road games; WVU just 1-4 ATS L5 as a road underdog; TCU is 3-7 ATS in L10 vs. Big 12 foes; TCU is 1-9 ATS L10 home games, but 19-6 SU L23 in Fort Worth; Frogs 7-2 SU in L9 week 6 contests; TCU 1-7 L8 as home fave
ANALYSIS
Both teams were off last week, which means in theory both should be sharp and ready to go. TCU has the hallmark win of its season over Oklahoma State, while WVU fell to its best competition, Virginia Tech. That was the season-opener, however, and the Mountaineers have improved. Will Grier has been one of the more dynamic quarterbacks in the nation, going deep early and often, and he's helped by running back Justin Crawford, he of the 7.4 yards per carry average. The Mountaineers aren't any great shakes on defense, but aren't afraid to take some chances. TCU isn't quite as explosive offensively, but quarterback Kenny Hill has been steady and patient, which has resulted in the Horned Frogs averaging nearly 48 points per game. Five TCU players have at least nine catches and over 100 yards, so Hill spreads the ball around nicely. TCU is a top 30 unit nationally in total defense, and has enough weapons on that side of the ball to make a stop or two against WVU. That's going to be the difference in the game.
Line -- TCU -13; PICK -- TCU 41-32
Michigan State at (7) Michigan
TRENDS
Sparty is 7-2 SU and 9-0 ATS in L9 vs. Wolverines; team with the most rushing yards has won 42 of the past 47 in the series; MSU is 27-10 ATS in L37 vs. B1G competition and 22-8-1 ATS in L31 road games vs. teams with winning marks; Michigan has a 10-game home winning streak; Michigan is 6-0 ATS in L6 games in week 6
ANALYSIS
Fans of old-school, physical football will love this game, as both teams hang their hat on defese. The Wolverines are first nationally in total defense and Sparty is fifth, and neither does anything really exotic. Michigan will bring the blitz and harass the quarterback from a lot of different spots, but believes its 11 can beat your 11. Sparty has good numbers, but we aren't sure if the competition they have faced is exactly top notch, at least offensively. While defense takes center stage, the game will likely come down to which quarterback plays better. Michigan has John O'Korn, who has been more consistent than starter Wilton Speight, who is out with an injury. O'Korn has a big arm and can do downfield, and isn't as prone to the interception as Speight. MSU's Brian Lewerke is a solid passer, but adds a dual threat as an outstanding runner. He will need to make some plays with his legs if the Spartans are to keep drives alive. There is also a goofy play or turnover that changes momentum in this one, so don't be surprised when that happens. MSU is not afraid of "big brother," winning three of the last four meetings in Ann Arbor.
Line -- Michigan -10.5; Pick -- Michigan 23-19
OTHER GAMES
Tulsa at Tulane -- Tulsa 11-1 ATS L12 vs. Tulane; Hurricane 12-4 ATS away since 2015; Tulane 4-1 ATS L5 contests; Tulane 1-5 ATS L6 meetings with Tulsa
Line -- Tulane -5; Pick -- Tulane 45-38
Illinois at Iowa -- Road team has covered L3 in the series; Illini 8-17 ATS L25 as visitor since 2012; Iowa just 11-22 ATS as home favorite since 2012, but has covered 6 of L8 in that role; Iowa 2-3-1 L6 games; Iowa 4-2 ATS L6 vs. Illini
Line -- Iowa -17; Pick -- Iowa 34-16
(4) Penn State at Northwestern -- Nittany Lions 12-1-1 ATS L14 contests; PSU 3-5 as road favorite dating back to last season; Northwestern 5-1 SU L6 home games; Pat Fitzgerald 3-0 ATS vs. James Franklin, dating back to 2012 game vs. Vanderbilt; Wildcats 14-7 ATS L21 as an underdog
Line -- Penn State -14; Pick -- Penn State 34-24
Wake Forest at (2) Clemson -- Deacons have lost eight in a row to Clemson but are 3-0 ATS L3 in the series; Wake is 6-1-1 ATS in L8 games vs. ACC; Wake 9-2 ATS L11 away; Clemson 6-1 ATS in L7 games; Tigers are 14-0 SU in L14 October contests; Clemson 5-6-1 ATS L12 as home favorite
Line -- Clemson - 21.5; Pick -- Clemson 36-23
Ole Miss at (21) Auburn -- Ole Miss 0-6 ATS L6 and 1-11 L12 since middle of 2016; Rebels 1-6 ATS L7 road games; Auburn 2-8 ATS L10 contests; Auburn 6-3-1 ATS L10 in series; Tigers 7-14-2 ATS L23 games at home
Line -- Auburn -22.5; Pick -- Auburn 42-17
(5) Georgia at Vanderbilt -- Georgia 10-1 SU in L11 vs. Vandy, and 5-1 ATS L6 games; Bulldogs are 5-1 SU in L6 road games; Commodores 5-1 ATS L6 vs. Georgia and 7-3 ATS L10; Vandy 1-10 SU L11 vs. Georgia at home
Line -- Georgia -17.5; Pick -- Georgia 36-17
Duke at Virginia -- Duke 4-1 ATS in L5 games; Duke 7-2-1 ATS L10 in the series; Devils 12-5 ATS L17 on the road; Virginia 6-2 SU L8 when facing Duke at home; Virginia 2-6 ATS vs. spread in L8 games
Line -- Virginia -2; Pick -- Duke 32-28
Minnesota at Purdue -- Gophers have won 4 of L5 vs. Boilermakers; Minnesota 7-1-2 ATS L10 road games; Gophers 5-11-2 ATS L18 vs. Purdue; Boilers 3-8-1 ATS L11 at home; Purdue 4-1 ATS L5 games; Boilers 5-4-1 ATS L10 in series
Line -- Purdue -3.5; Pick -- Minnesota 26-23
LSU at (21) Florida -- Tigers 3-1 SU and ATS in L4 vs. Gators; LSU has won its last 10 October games; LSU 2-5 ATS in L7 road games vs winning competition, but 4-1 ATS L5 road games; Gators have non won B2B vs LSU since 2009; Florida 5-2 ATS in L7 home games in October and 5-1 ATS in conference home games over the past two seasons; Florida 8-12-1 ATS L21 games on the board
Line -- Florida -2; Pick -- LSU 27-21
(13) Miami, Fla. at Florida State -- Miami 0-7 SU in L7 vs FSU and 1-3 ATS in L4 in the series; Miami 1-6 SU in L7 week 6 games; Seminoles 7-0 SU in L7 at home after losing most recent home game; FSU 3-8 ATS L11 at home vs. teams with winning records.
Line -- Miami -3; Pick -- Miami 28-20
Arkansas at South Carolina -- Arkansas 6-1 ATS as visiting underdog; Hawgs 0-4 ATS this season and 1-5 ATS L6 games on the road; Arkansas 9-4 ATS L13 vs. South Carolina; Gamecocks 2-5 ATS L7 at home; Gamecock 2-4 ATS L6 at home vs. Arkansas
Line -- Arkansas -2.5; Pick -- Arkansas 38-28
SMU at Houston -- SMU 5-0 ATS L5 contests and 5-1 ATS as road underdog; Ponies on a 12-4 spread run; SMU 6-1 ATS L7 on the road; Houston 5-0 SU L5 home meetings vs. SMU; Cougars 0-5-1 L6 as home favorite; Houston 3-9 ATS L12 games
Line -- Houston -6.5; Pick -- Houston 34-31
Maryland at (11) Ohio State -- Terps 4-2 ATS L6 contests; Maryland 2-6 ATS L8 on the road; OSU 23-2 SU L25 home games, but zero covers L4 home games; road team has covered three straight in the series; OSU 1-6 ATS L7 home contests
Line -- Ohio State -30; Pick-- Ohio State 44-24
Kansas State at Texas -- Kansas State 11-2 ATS L13 vs. Longhorns; KSU 33-17 as road dog since 2009; Longhorns have three straight covers since opening loss; Texas 9-4 ATS L13 games at home
Line -- Texas -4.5; Pick -- Kansas State 27-20
(1) Alabama at Texas A&M -- Bama has won four in a row vs. Aggies; Alabama is 8-0 ATS L8 on road vs. teams with winning records, and 7-1-1 ATS since 1995 as 20-plus point road fave; Aggies 0-5 ATS in L6 week 6 contests; A&M 1-10 ATS in L11 SEC games, but 9-2 SU in L11 at home; A&M 2-6 ATS L8 as an underdog
Line -- Alabama -26.5; Pick -- Alabama 41-17
(9) Wisconsin at Nebraska -- Badgers have won the last four meetings; Wisconsin is 7-0 ATS in L7 road tilts and 7-1 SU in L8 B1G games; Nebraska is 9-1 SU in L10 home games; Huskers 1-4 ATS in L5 after losing previous game in a series; Nebraska 0-3 ATS at home this season
Line -- Wisconsin -11; Pick -- Wisconsin 35-21
(11) Washington State at Oregon -- Cougars 5-0 ATS L5 vs. Duks and 4-2 L6 at Oregon; Wazzu 15-6-1 ATS L22 on the road Ducks 5-11 vs. spread in Eugene since 2015; Oregon 5-13-1 ATS L19 contests
Line -- Washington State -3; Pick -- Washington State 37-23
Stanford at Utah -- Stanford 9-2 SU in L11 contests; Cardinal have failed to cover L3 road contests; Stanford 8-4 L12 road games; Utah 5-0 SU L5 games; Utes on 8-2 ATS run since middle of 2016 season and 5-2 ATS L7 at home
Line -- Stanford -4; Pick -- Utah 26-24
2017 RECORD
SU -- 73-20 (3-1 Wednesday/Thursday/Friday); ATS -- 61-52-1 (3-1 Wednesday/Thursday/Friday)
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