TOP GAMES
(19) Michigan at (2) Penn State
ANALYSIS
Other than last year's 49-10 blowout Michigan victory, this is typically a very close game. Both teams have standout defenses, feasting on their ability to get to the quarterback. Michigan is a bit more aggressive and tricky, while Penn State has been great at forcing turnovers (fourth nationally). The tables turn when it comes to offense, however -- Michigan just has not been explosive, hasn't really been able to challenge teams downfield. Karan Higdon ran for 200 yards last week against Indiana, so maybe the Wolverines have found something in the ground game. Penn State has Saquon Barkley in the backfield and tight end Mike Gesecki as an inviting target for QB Trace McSorley. The last two meetings in State College have been decided by a total of 15 points, including a memorable 4 OT contest in 2013.
Line -- Penn State -9.5; Pick -- Penn State 24-20
(13) USC at (11) Notre Dame
ANALYSIS
The Irish have won three of the last five, and definitely look like a different team this year. The defense has been excellent, allowing just one rushing touchdown, and the offense has been plowing over foes with a run game that's fifth in the country. Why Josh Adams doesn't get more pub is a mystery, because the kid can play. USC QB Sam Darnold will need to bring his laser focus to the game, and cut down on turnovers -- his nine picks match his total from all of last season. Both teams are still squarely in the hunt for a CFP berth, so this one has all the makings of a classic.
Line -- Notre Dame -3.5 ; Pick -- Notre Dame 27-21
(20) UCF at Navy
ANALYSIS
Scott Frost's UCF squad has grabbed headlines with blowout victories over Maryland and Memphis, two teams which at the time were highly thought of. McKenzie Milton has been superb at QB for UCF, throwing just two picks to 15 TD passes. Navy is coming off a three point loss to Memphis in which it turned the football over five times. That's not going to work against UCF, which is excellent on offense and very good on defense. UCF will have to be ready for Navy's multi-pronged option, led by QB Zach Abey (second in the nation in rushing). This is the first time the teams have met.
Line -- UCF -7.5; Pick -- UCF 34-30
OTHER GAMES
Iowa at Northwestern -- The Hawkeyes have been right there with two of the better teams in the league, losing by a touchdown to Michigan State and by two points to Penn State, on a last second touchdown pass. Northwestern has run hot and cold, mainly because QB Clayton Thorson and RB Justin Jackson have not had the seasons expected of them. The Hawkeyes defense has been solid if not spectacular, limiting foes to just over 32 percent on third down conversions. This should be a good old fashioned Big Ten defensive battle.
Line -- Iowa -1; Pick -- Iowa 24-21
Maryland at (5) Wisconsin -- It's probably not a good thing that Maryland's rush defense is ranked in the 80s nationally, especially when the Terps are facing uber freshman Jonathan Taylor -- right? Taylor has three games with over 200 yards, including back to back against Nebraska and Purdue the last two weekends. He should be able to find plenty of room against the Terrapins, who are still experiencing offensive issues due to quarterback injuries. The Badgers have won five straight at home, but are just 1-3-2 ATS in last six at Camp Randall.
Line -- Wisconsin -24; Pick -- Wisconsin 45-13
Iowa State at Texas Tech -- The Cyclones looked pretty good last week with Kyle Kempt taking over at quarterback from Jacob Park, who left the team for personal reasons. Kempt didn't make mistakes and ISU rolled over Kansas. Look for coach Matt Campbell to put Kempt in position to succeed, and to hand off a lot to RB David Montgomery. Tech's Nic Shimonek has been one of the less heralded QBs in the nation this season, which is a shame because he's been one of the best (18 TD-4 INT). ISU put up 66 on the Red Raiders last season, which hasn't been forgotten. Tech has won four of the last five meetings and is one of the best in America at forcing turnovers.
Line -- Texas Tech -7; Pick -- Texas Tech 44-33
(10) Oklahoma State at Texas -- The Cowboys sport the nation's top offense, and while the Longhorns have given up a ton of yardage to some pretty prolific offenses -- USC (468 yards) and Oklahoma (518) -- they have managed to stay in the game. Freshman Sam Ehlinger has gotten more comfortable under center for Texas, and the defense has been tough up front. Oklahoma State is down three offensive linemen, so don't surprised if Texas gets some push on QB Mason Rudolph. The senior has been lights out all season, averaging 11.6 yards per attempt and having a bevy of targets at his disposal. Texas' 108th ranked pass defense will be tested heavily. The Cowboys have won six of their last eight road games, and have won five of the last seven meetings with UT.
Line -- Oklahoma State -7; Pick -- Oklahoma State 48-31
Syracuse at (8) Miami -- Both teams needed a little magic last time out, Syracuse getting it late in an upset win over Clemson and Miami converting a fourth down and kicking a game winning field goal over Georgia Tech. Syracuse has put it together offensively, with Eric Dungey adeptly running the ship at QB and Steve Ishmael ranking second in the country in receptions. Miami is showing flashes of being The U once again, with athletic, fast players on defense and a big-play mentality on offense. The Canes have won seven of the last nine meetings.
Line -- Miami -17.5; Pick -- Miami 38-23
Arizona State at Utah
The Sun Devils may be in for a letdown after last weekend's shocking upset of Washington, while Utah is licking its wounds after falling by a single point to USC. This one will come down to how well ASU can defend Utah's passing attack -- the Utes want to run the ball and play physical, but the Sun Devils allow almost 270 yards through the air. That has to be inviting to QB Troy Williams. Utah has won the last two after dropping 11 straight to the Sun Devils.
Line -- Utah -10; Pick -- Utah 35-20
Indiana at (18) Michigan State -- The Hoosiers have played well at times, taking Michigan to overtime last week, beating Virginia and confusing Ohio State for a half. The problem is a defense that allows far too many big plays and which really struggles against the run. That's bad news against a Spartans team that runs the ball nearly 43 times per game. Sparty has improved greatly on defense, and will want to make amends for last year's loss to Indiana. MSU has won four of the last five meetings.
Line -- Michigan State -6.5; Pick -- Michigan State 31-21
Tennessee at (1) Alabama -- Many in Vol Nation wonder why the powers that be haven't just gotten it over with, and let Butch Jones go. It's pretty obvious Tennessee is foundering as a program, and meeting the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa is not the way to reverse fortunes. The Vols have simply not been able to put the ball in the end zone lately, and that spells disaster against a Bama team that allows just 10.1 points per game. Alabama has won 10 meetings in a row against UT.
Line -- Alabama -36; Pick -- Alabama 48-14
Kentucky at Mississippi State -- The Wildcats are a Florida Hail Mary touchdown away from being unbeaten while the Bulldogs have dropped two of their last three. Kentucky has struggled to score points for much of the season, and that could be an issue against an MSU defense that allows less than 20 points per game. Nick Fitzgerald is one of the best dual threat quarterbacks in the country, but may have to pass a bit more than usual against a Kentucky D that allows only 97 yards per game on the ground. The records say Kentucky is the better team, but the feeling is that Mississippi State may be ready to put it all together. Kentucky is just 2-13 vs the SEC West since 2010.
Line -- Mississippi State -13; Pick -- Mississippi State 36-28
Oregon at UCLA -- Many were surprised by the Bruins getting blown out at Arizona last weekend, but given the state of UCLA's defense, especially against the run (129th nationally), it probably should not have been a shock. Now Royce Freeman and the Ducks come to town, and you have to think it will be more pounding of the rock against a UCLA squad that looks undisciplined and confused. Josh Rosen will put up numbers against a shaky Oregon pass defense, but it might not be enough for a Bruins team that looks to be slowly circling the drain. Oregon has won six in a row over UCLA, scoring 42 points in each of the last two contests.
Line -- UCLA -6; Pick -- Oregon 41-34
(9) Oklahoma at Kansas State -- Whether or not Jesse Ertz plays for Kansas State, the offense just hasn't been very good. It's too one dimensional, throwing for less than 200 yards per game, and when you rely on a the run against a Sooners team that's pretty good at stopping it, you're asking for trouble. Baker Mayfield should be licking his chops as KSU comes in allowing nearly 240 yards per game through the air. Oklahoma has lacked a consistent running game most of the year, but it may not matter as it will put the pressure on from the outset.
Line -- Oklahoma -14.5; Pick -- Oklahoma 45-24
(24) LSU at Ole Miss -- The Tigers are good again, folks -- well, sort of -- and now Coach O wants to take on his former employer, about whom he has said plenty -- very little of it good. LSU is humming right now, updating its offense to the 2000s, and getting the defense back to its nasty attitude. Ole Miss has problems running the football so will want to look to the air, but LSU ranks in the top 15 against the pass, so that could be a futile effort. Ole Miss did manage a breakout last weekend, scoring 57 points against what was believed to be a solid Vandy defense. Shea Patterson is an up and coming quarterback, but just doesn't have enough help around him at the moment. Five of the last seven games in this series have been decided by seven points or less, and the Rebels have won two straight at home over LSU.
Line -- LSU -7; Pick -- LSU 30-16
Wake Forest at Georgia Tech -- This will be a real test for a Wake defense that allows just 3.5 yards per carry and just four rushing touchdowns. You wonder how Georgia Tech feels after basically blowing last week's game against Miami, especially with Clemson up next. This could be a crucial, crucial game for the Yellow Jackets, who will need to be better against the pass than they have been if they hope to stop Wake QB John Wolford -- who has 8 TDs to just 1 INT. Georgia Tech will do its usual control the clock thing, but it needs to finish. Tech has won 10 of the last 13 meetings, but the teams haven't played since 2010.
Line -- Georgia Tech -4.5; Pick --Wake Forest 28-26
Arizona at Cal -- Could this really be happening? Could Rich Rodriguez really be putting together a solid coaching job? The answer is yes, especially since the Wildcats have won three of their last four, knocking off Colorado and UCLA with a precision ground attack. QB Khalil Tate has been nothing short of miraculous, rushing for 643 yards and six scores in basically two games. Cal was able to throttle a high-powered Washington State attack and has shown defensive improvement under rookie coach Justin Wilcox. Cal has won just five of the last 14 meetings, losing three straight by a total of 10 points. The winner of this one gets to the edge of bowl eligibility.
Line -- Arizona -3; Pick -- Arizona 38-28
Wyoming at Boise State -- The Broncos lost to the Cowboys for the first time last year, so that will be in the forefront of their through processes. Wyoming has been a huge disappointment after being seen as a darkhorse Mountain West pick, barely getting by Utah State a week ago and playing to overtime with Hawaii. Boise has picked it up after losing two of three, blasting San Diego State last weekend. Boise hasn't played great at home this year, but it may be ready to show that it isn't willing to cede MWC supremacy just yet.
Line -- Boise State -14; Pick -- Boise State 31-23
Fresno State at San Diego State -- After facing Alabama and Washington State in consecutive weeks, Fresno has put together a nice little run of three straight victories, including a 38-0 demolition of New Mexico last weekend. Marcus McMaryion has been solid at QB, throwing just one pick all season, and the Bulldogs have been nails against the run, allowing only 107 yards per contest. That could be a challenge for Rashaad Penny, who was limited to just 53 rushing yards last week against Boise State. Christian Chapman may need to shoulder more of the load against a Fresno team that has been susceptible to big plays through the air.
Line -- San Diego State -7.5; Pick -- Fresno State 34-31
Colorado at (15) Washington State -- Do you think Mike Leach put his team through a bit of hell this week in practice? He was livid after the Cougars listless performance against Cal, and he will want to take it out on a Buffs squad struggling to find consistency. Colorado squeaked by Oregon State last week, ending a three-game skid, but has not looked smooth at all this year. Wazzu had been running on all cylinders before the Cal haymaker, and you can bet Luke Falk will want to redeem himself after tossing five interceptions against the Bears. Colorado is 75th against the pass and allows nearly eight yards per attempt, but has won two of the last three contests.
Line -- Washington State -10; Pick -- Washington State 48-21
2017 RECORD
SU -- Week (TH/F) 6-0, Season 142-43; ATS -- Week 3-3, Season 105-78-2
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