Week 3 By The Numbers

No video this week, kids, having trouble with my YouTube channel.

So we will just present some numbers for the top four games, and picks that are sure to make you a mint. I hit both games last night, tabbing Purdue and Oklahoma State to cover, so I feel a big, productive Saturday is in store.

TOP GAMES
(13) Auburn at (3) Clemson
TRENDS
Auburn just 9-8 SU away since 2013 and 4-5 ATS in same capacity; Auburn 12-26 L38 ATS; Auburn 1-2 ATS vs. ACC since 2012; Clemson 32-3 SU at home since 2012, but just 16-15-1 ATS in same capacity; Clemson has covered 8 straight vs. BCS non ACC foes
ANALYSIS
Last year's game was a 19-13 Clemson victory at Auburn, so the visitors could be looking for a measure of revenge. Auburn has upgraded its quarterback play with Baylor/JUCO transfer Jarrett Stidham, and get the services of RB Kamryn Pettway and WR Kyle Davis back after each served a one game suspension. Clemson got a nice showing from new QB Kelly Bryant, but he will have to raise his game another notch if Dabo Swinney's bunch is to have success. Both sides feature stout defenses, especially up front, so it may be left to turnovers and special teams to decide things. Clemson has gotten used to winning big games, and just feels like the safer pick, so we like them at home, winning late. 
Line -- Clemson -5.5; Pick -- Clemson 28, Auburn 24

(7) Oklahoma at (2) Ohio State
TRENDS
Sooners a little unknown under new coach Riley, previously OC; Oklahoma 22-2 SU away from home since 2012, 3-1 ATS as road dog; Oklahoma 11-4 ATS L15 as visitor; Buckeyes 5-9 ATS as home chalk last two seasons, but 13-1 SU at home in that span; Buckeyes 37-1 SU in home openers since 1979; OSU 15-10 ATS vs. non-B1G since 2012
ANALYSIS
Buckeyes blasted Sooners in Norman last fall, so you can bet Oklahoma comes in with a chip on its shoulder. QB Baker Mayfield is one of the best around, and even though he has lost a lot of weapons, he still has TE Mark Andrews, and a bunch of resourcefulness that keeps plays alive. Sooners have an excellent offensive line, one that could challenge the Buckeyes' front four. Oklahoma defensively has athletes, though many are new and largely untested. Look for Ohio State to bully the Sooners with the ground game, setting up some over the top shots by QB J.T. Barrett. Don't be surprised if the Buckeyes show some new things here, things that weren't used against Indiana in the opener. There will be enough misfires on both sides to keep the competitive well into the fourth quarter, but the belief here is that Ohio State's depth eventually wears the Sooners down.
Line -- Ohio State -7.5; Pick -- Ohio State 34, Oklahoma 28

(15) Georgia at (24) Notre Dame
TRENDS
Dawgs 3-5 SU since 2009 in road openers; UGA 14-7 SU away since 2012 but just 1-3 ATS as road dog in that span; Notre Dame 1-4 SU LY hosting Power5 schools, and 30-38-2 ATS in that capacity since 2010; ND 2-5 ATS in second game of season L7Y, and ND just 3-5 ATS L8 in South Bend.
ANALYSIS
The only time these two proud programs have played was in the 1981 Sugar Bowl, a 17-10 Georgia victory that gave it the national title. Georgia always has more buzz than it deserves, and Notre Dame has been just a blip on the national scene for most of Brian Kelly's tenure in South Bend. One of these teams will take a big step forward, and it will be the one that manages its young quarterback best. Georgia has true freshman Jake Fromm while the Irish have sophomore Brandon Wimbush, and each has lofty credentials. Fromm is the better passer, Wimbush more of a dual threat, and both have weapons. Whichever is rattled less by pressure is the one who comes out ahead, and we believe that the Bulldogs will do a better job generating heat on the offense than the host Irish will. For that reason, we're picking a narrow victory for the visitors. 
Line -- Notre Dame -4.5; Pick -- Georgia 28, Notre Dame 25

(14) Stanford at (6) USC
TRENDS
Stanford has won three of last five meetings SU, including last two by avg of 13.5 ppg; Stanford 25-9 SU away since 2011 and 5-2-1 ATS in that span; Cardinal 11-3 L14 ATS vs. USC and 14-2-1 ATS L17 away; Trojans 4-3 ATS in second of B2B home games since 2012; USC 19-10 ATS as home favorite since 2012; USC 14-27 ATS off SU win since 2012
ANALYSIS
USC might have the Hollywood cool, but Stanford has the muscle, and the upper hand in the series. The Cardinal have won three straight and seven of the last nine, and will go into this one with a singular mindset -- be tough off the line and run the football. The Trojans allowed 263 yards on the ground to Western Michigan last weekend, and there were numerous issues with tackling and run fits. That must be cleaned up, and now. USC has Sam Darnold and Ronald Jones II and Deontay Burnett, all stars of differing magnitudes -- offense isn't the problem for USC. Stopping Bryce Love and the powerful Stanford offense line could be, and the fact that Stanford has had two weeks to prepare for this gives it the edge. 
Line -- USC -6; Pick -- Stanford 27, USC 24

OTHER GAMES
Northwestern at Duke -- Wildcats are 10-2 in the series since 1996; NU is just 5-9 as a road favorite since 2007, including 1-1 the last three years; NU is 10-4 ATS as a visitor since 2014; Duke 5-1 ATS as a home underdog 2013, 17-8 ATS overall as a dog
Line -- Duke +3; Pick -- Duke 28, Northwestern 26

Iowa at Iowa State -- Iowa has covered three of the last four against the Cyclones; Iowa is 11-1 ATS as a road favorite the last four years, but just 22-22 in that capacity since 2012; Iowa has won nine of its last 10 road games outright; Iowa State was 4-1 ATS as a home underdog last season, and coach Matt Campbell are 18-9 ATS the last 27 times as an underdog; the visitor has won four of the last five in this series.
Line -- Iowa State +3; Pick -- Iowa State 23, Iowa 21

(17) Louisville at North Carolina -- Louisville is just 2-8 ATS since mid-2016, and just 1-4 L5 as road favorite; Cardinals are 11-6 SU on road in conference play since 2014, but just 11-13 in that same capacity ATS; The home team has won three straight in this series, though this will be the first meeting since 2012; UNC is 25-8 SU at home under Larry Fedora (2012), but just 7-12-1 ATS as underdog in Fedora's tenure.
Line -- North Carolina +10; Pick -- Louisville 31, North Carolina 24

Indiana at Virginia -- Indiana is 9-4 SU in road openers L13, but have dropped two of last four; IU is just 5-4 ATS as a road favorite since 2007, and 6-2 ATS on the road vs. non-B1G; Virginia has won both matchups in this series; Wahoos are 18-18-1 ATS as home dogs since 2007, but 8-4 the L3Y; Virginia 1-6 ATS in last seven contests in 2016.
Line -- Virginia +3; Pick -- Indiana 38, Virginia 31

Wake Forest at Boston College -- The L3 games in the series have been decided by 6, 3 and 3 points; Wake 18-25 as road dog since 2007, but 9-7 ATS L3Y; Wake 7-3 ATS as visitor since 2014; BC 3-10 ATS as host the L2Y; Eagles just 8-7 ATS as home fave since 2013, but 16-15-1 ATS vs. ACC in that span.
Line -- Pick'em; Pick -- Wake Forest 24, Boston College 17

Western Michigan at Michigan State -- Broncos 2-12 SU vs. Sparty and 4-16 vs. non-conference on the road L8Y, but did go 2-0 ATS vs. B1G in 2016; WMU 5-2 ATS L7 on road vs. B1G and 13-4 ATS since 2013 as visiting dog; MSU just 27-34-1 ATS as home fave under Dantonio, including 4-8 L2Y; MSU 10-17 vs. line since 2015 and was 1-7 ATS in 2016
Line -- Michigan State -7.5; Pick -- Michigan State 28, Western Michigan 24

Pittsburgh at (4) Penn State -- Just third meeting between the schools since 2000, Pitt won at home last year; Pitt 7-5 SU L2Y on road, and 6-3 ATS as road dog in that span; Pitt 11-16 overall vs. number since 2015; PSU has covered 11 straight, including last six at home; PSU 10-6 ATS L3Y as home favorite and 8-6 ATS vs. non-conference.
Line -- Penn State -21; Pick -- Penn State 44, Pittsburgh 20

(23) TCU at Arkansas -- TCU just 3-31 SU vs. Hogs since 1959, but 9-3 in road openers since 2004, winning by 18 ppg; TCU just 4-7 ATS as road fave L3Y, 12-4 SU on road in that span; TCU 3-10 vs. spread in 2016; Hogs 23-15-1 vs. spread since 2014, and 5-3 L3Y as home dog; Arkansas just 7-8 vs. ranked foes since 2013.
Line -- Arkansas +3; Pick -- TCU 34, Arkansas 32

Nebraska at Oregon -- Huskers coach Riley very familiar from his days at Oregon State, going 4-10 SU; Nebraska has won 5L7 road openers and are 4-2-1 L3Y ATS as a road underdog; Huskers 10-7-1 ATS L18 games; Oregon has won 25L26 as host vs. non-conference; Ducks just 8-11 ATS as a home fave L3Y, though Taggart-coached squads 8-1-1 ATS as host and 18-8-1 vs. line last two seasons.
Line -- Oregon -13.5; Pick -- Oregon 41, Nebraska 38

Toledo at Nevada -- Rockets 4-10 SU in L14 road openers and 1-7 in Mountain/Pacific time zones since 1996; Toledo 5-3 as road fave since 2014, and covered just 2 of L9 in 2016; Wolf Pack 10-3 ATS as double digit dog L13, so watch the number; Nevada 13-3 SU in home openers since 2001 but 2-5 ATS as home dog since 2014.
Line -- Nevada +9.5; Pick -- Toledo 40, Nevada 27

South Carolina at Missouri -- Gamecocks beat NCState despite being outgained in total yards, and go on the road in SEC play, where they are just 2-10 since 2009; South Carolina 5-8 ATS as a road dog L3Y but have won 3L5 outright vs. Mizzou; Tigers 6-7 ATS as home fave L3Y, but covered 4 of 6 at home in 2016;
Line -- Missouri -2.5; Pick -- Missouri 27, South Carolina 26

Minnesota at Oregon State -- Gophers hold a 3-1 series advantage, but this is just second meeting since 1981; Minnesota 11-4 SU in road openers since 2002 and are 6-4-1 ATS as road dog L3Y; Gophers 2-6 ATS L8 vs. non-B1G; Beavers just 3-6 ATS as home favorite L3Y, but 2-1 ATS L3 vs. B1G, all as underdog.
Line -- Oregon State -2; Pick -- Oregon State 27, Minnesota 21

Utah at Brigham Young -- Utes 12-5 SU on the road L3Y, but just 4-3 ATS as road fave in that span; utah has won six straight meetings SU dating back to 2010; BYU is 15-3 SU at home since 2014, but 2-0-1 as home dog since 2013; Cougs 5-2-1 ATS vs. Pac-12 since 2012
Line -- Brigham Young +2 .5; Pick -- Utah 27, Brigham Young 23

Houston at Arizona -- Cougars 3-0-1 ATS in second of B2B road games since 2012; Houston 7-4 ATS as road fave since 2014, but overall just 1-7-1 ATS in last nine in 2016; Arizona is 7-4 ATS as home dog under RichRod, 23-11 SU in his coaching tenure (2012)
Line -- Arizona +1; Pick -- Houston 38, Arizona 35

Boise State at (20) Washington State -- Boise 6-6 in road openers L12Y, beat Wazzu for first time last season; Broncos 12-5 SU on the road in three years under Bryan Harsin, yet to be an away dog ATS in that span; Boise 11-6 ATS as a visitor under Harsin, and visiting team is 19-6 ATS in Boise non-bowl games; Wazzu just 15-16 SU at home since 2012, but 10-8 ATS as a home favorite in same span; WSU 3-3 ATS as DD fave vs. FBS since 2012;
Line -- Washington State -10; Pick -- Washington State 30, Boise State 27

San Diego State at Arizona State -- Aztecs are 0-10-1 SU vs ASU and 3-21 in road openers; SDSU just 3-9 SU in non-league road games under Rocky Long; Aztecs 9-8 ATS as road dog since 2011; ASU 7-2 ATS L9 at home and 17-9 in that role since 2011
Line -- Arizona State -3.5; Pick -- Arizona State 38, San Diego State 35

2017 RECORD
SU -- 28-8; ATS -- 18-18