By The Numbers

 We are back to once again take a look inside the numbers in this weekend of college football, and to make you guys some bank at the same time. There aren't nearly as many marquee matchups as we had last weekend, but we have found a few that are worth the time, so without any further ado:

TOP GAMES
(23) Tennessee at (24) Florida
TRENDS
Vols just 2-5 ATS L7 in this series, and 5-9-1 ATS last 14 vs. the line; Vols have covered last two at The Swamp; Florida 5-1 ATS as SEC host under McElwain, and Gators are 7-3 ATS L3Y coming off a SU loss.
ANALYSIS
One of the best rivalries in the SEC gets reignited as the Vols head to Gainesville, where they have lost the last two, and four of the last five contests vs. the Gators. There was a breakthrough last year, however, and Tennessee wants to use that as momentum against a Florida team that is still struggling with player suspensions and offensive ineptitude. Reports say Tennessee will be without leading rusher John Kelly (knee), which makes penetrating the stout Florida defense a little tougher. The Vols look like the better team on paper, but the Gators haven't played since Sept. 2 and would love nothing more than to have some actual football to take their minds off of recent tragedies in the Sunshine State. Look for a low-scoring, hard-hitting game, with turnovers deciding the outcome.
Line -- Florida -4.5; Pick -- Florida 24, Tennessee 17

(3) Clemson at (14) Louisville
TRENDS
Clemson 13-7 ATS L20 vs. the line, but just 5-9 ATS away since 2014; Tigers 19-16-1 ATS off SU victory; Louisville just 3-8 ATS L11 lined games; Cards 6-5 as a dog since 2014, and 2-0 as home dog in that span; Louisville 0-3 in L3 games as an underdog.
ANALYSIS
The last three games in the series have been decided by 15 points, all Clemson victories, and Louisville certainly has the most explosive weapon on the field in QB Lamar Jackson. He will have to be at his best, though, against a Tigers D that held Auburn to 68 total yards and netted 11 sacks. Clemson managed the game offensively against Auburn, but don't be surprised if they take some shots against a Cards secondary that's missing Jaire Alexander. Deon Cain could come up big in this one. Louisville certainly has a shot, considering it has a seven game home ACC winning streak. But Clemson has been through this big game stuff before, and Dabo Swinney won't let his team get rattled by the surroundings. 
Line -- Louisville +3; Pick -- Clemson 31, Louisville 23

Texas at (6) USC
TRENDS
Longhorns just 2-8 L10 ATS as a visitor, though Herman went 5-0 as underdog at Houston; USC is 8-3 ATS at the Coliseum under Clay Helton, and 13-6 ATS as a home favorite since 2014.
ANALYSIS
The talk all week in Los Angeles has been about the 2006 Rose Bowl, Vince Young and the end of the Trojans dynasty. You have to believe USC is sick of that, and just wants to play football. Texas looked better last week in a big win over San Jose State, but taking on USC at this juncture of the season seems like a tall order for Tom Herman's squad. USC was much better again the run last week vs. Stanford, and was money on third downs thanks to the arm of QB Sam Darnold. You have to believe Herman will dig into his bag of tricks in this one as the Longhorns are at a talent disadvantage. 
Line -- USC -15; Pick -- USC 38, Texas 21

OTHER GAMES
(25) UCLA at Memphis -- UCLA just 3-11 ATS L14 vs. non-Pac 12 squads, and just 5-10 ATS in L15 lined games; Memphis 3-8 vs. spread L11 since early 2016, but has won last two outright as a dog vs ranked teams (Ole Miss, Houston).
Line -- Memphis +3; Pick -- Memphis 34, UCLA 33

Air Force at (7) Michigan -- Since 2014, Air Force is 10-4 ATS with eight outright wins as an underdog;  As a DD underdog during this span, the Falcons are 3-0 ATS with two outright wins. Michigan is just 11-10 ATS as a home fave L3Y, and 9-10 as DD fave since 2015;
Line -- Michigan -23; Pick -- Michigan 38, Air Force 17

(9) Oklahoma State at Pittsburgh -- Okie State is 8-8-1 ATS as a favorite since 2015, and 1-2-2 as a road fave in that span; Pittsburgh is 3-11 ATS in home games since Pat Narduzzi became head coach in 2015.
Line -- Pittsburgh +11.5; Pick -- Oklahoma State 42, Pittsburgh 23

Notre Dame at Boston College -- Notre Dame just 2-6 since 2013 as a visiting favorite; since 1996 Irish just 5-15 in first true road game of the season; Eagles 6-1 ATS vs. ND since 2004; BC 0-5 ATS as a home dog past two seasons but 7-7-1 as a dog since 2015.
Line -- Boston College +13; Pick -- Notre Dame 30, Boston College 21

(10) Wisconsin at Brigham Young -- Badgers 13-4-1 ATS since late 2015 and 9-1 ATS L10 away from Camp Randall; BYU 4-1 ATS in L5 as a DD underdog, and 4-0-1 as a dog last season; Cougars just 2-5-1 ATS at home in 2016
Line -- BYU +16.5; Pick -- Wisconsin 36, Brigham Young 15

SMU at (20) TCU -- Road team has covered last three in this series; SMU was 4-1 as a road underdog last season and 9-7 in that role L3Y; TCU went 0-7 ATS as a host in 2016 but had been 10-2 in that capacity the previous two seasons; TCU 16-11 ATS off a SU victory since 2014
Line -- TCU -20; Pick -- TCU 38, SMU 24 

Army at (8) Ohio State -- Army 8-2-2 ATS L12 as a road dog, 4-2-1 L7 as a DD underdog; Buckeyes are just 3-8 ATS in L11 contests, including 1-4 ATS at home in this span; OSU 5-10 ATS since 2015 as DD home favorite.
Line -- Ohio State -32; Pick -- Ohio State 42, Army 17

Purdue at Missouri -- Jeff Brohm has gone 14-5-1 since late 2015, and Purdue is 14-3 L17 away from home; Missouri is just 9-17 ATS since 2015 and 3-8-1 as a fave since 2015, with four outright losses.
Line -- Missouri -7; Pick -- Purdue 27, Missouri 24

Oregon State at  (21) Washington State -- Beavers covered 7 of last 8 in 2016 but have dropped all three contests ATS this season; Oregon State is just 10-17 L3Y ATS in conference contests; Wazzu is 7-6 as a home fave since 2014 and 15-12 ATS vs. league foes; WSU just 2-8 L10 ATS
Line -- Washington State -21; Pick -- Washington State 42, Oregon State 26

Oregon at Wyoming -- Since Marcus Mariota left for the NFL after 2014, Oregon is 1-9 ATS as a double digit favorite; Oregon 5-12 L17 as favorite, though Willie Taggart teams are 12-5-1 as chalk since 2015; Wyoming is 7-2 ATS as underdog in games started by QB Josh Allen, winning five outright; Wyoming 5-0 ATS last year as home dog.
Line -- Wyoming +15; Pick -- Oregon 38, Wyoming 34

(12) LSU at Mississippi State -- Tigers 0-3 ATS L3 vs Bulldogs, but LSU is 4-0 ATS away from home under Ed Orgeron; Mississippi 10-5 ATS as a dog since 2014 and 6-2 ATS L8 as dog of at least seven points, with three outright victories
Line -- Mississippi State +7.5; Pick -- Mississippi State 27, LSU 24

Colorado State at (1) Alabama -- Rams were 5-0 LY as a visiting dog, with two outright wins, and are 7-1 L8 as a visitor; Bama just 4-14 ATS as a host vs. non-SEC foes, many as a double digit fave.
Line -- Alabama -28.5; Pick -- Alabama 41, Colorado State 16

Kentucky at South Carolina -- UK has won the last games and covered last four in series, and was 4-1 as a road dog last season; South Carolina just 5-9 ATS in Columbia since 2014 and 0-4-1 ATS in this series L5.
Line -- South Carolina -5.5; Pick -- Kentucky 31, South Carolina 28

(18) Kansas State at Vanderbilt -- Wildcats are 5-0-1 ATS since start of 2016 vs. non-conference foes, and 20-9-1 ATS as a visitor since 2011; Vandy is 6-1 ATS as home dog last two seasons and 10-5 L15 ATS in Nashville.
Line -- Vanderbilt +4; Pick -- Kansas State 28, Vanderbilt 27

(19) Stanford at San Diego State -- Stanford 17-9 ATS as visiting favorite since 2011, 25-14 ATS away from home in that span; Aztecs just 10-10 ATS at home since 2014, but have won last five outright as an underdog.
Line -- San Diego State +9; Pick -- Stanford 35, San Diego State 24

Ole Miss at California -- Ole Miss just 1-8 ATS since middle of 2016 campaign and are just 3-6 ATS as away favorite since 2014; Cal is 4-0 with three outright wins as underdog vs. non-league since 2014, though Bears are just 5-9 as a dog since 2015.
Line -- Cal +3.5; Pick -- Cal 38, Ole Miss 33

2017 RECORD
SU -- 32-8; ATS -- 31-29-1