Monday Musings

Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield has helped raise the profile of the Big 12 (Tulsa World)

 The Big 12 came into 2017 looking for respect, especially after it was shut out of the 2016 college football playoff.

 It took steps to remedy that, adding a championship game between the first and second place teams at the end of the regular season, as well as bulking up the non-conference portion of the schedules.

 But the most important thing it has done is win.

 Through the first three weekends of the season, the Big 12 has four unbeaten teams, and has registered marquee wins over Ohio State, Arkansas and Pittsburgh, all on the road, and Texas' showing against USC, taking the heavily favored Trojans to double overtime before losing 27-24, was encouraging, and a sign that the conference won't be the laughingstock that it's been the past few seasons -- especially at the top.

 Oklahoma and Oklahoma State look like real contenders for the College Football Playoff, which means their Nov. 4 Bedlam meeting could be really, really fun -- and important.

 TCU appears to have gotten over the horrible defensive tendencies that plagued it last year, and Kenny Hill has been excellent through three contests. Throw a surprising Texas Tech into the mix -- yeah, yeah, the Fighting Kingburys have beaten Eastern Washington and Arizona State, but it's a start -- and you have the makings of a competitive race.

 One big reason for the Big 12's early positive returns has been quarterback play.

 Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma State's Mason Rudolph are 1-2 in ESPN's QBR metric, the tool that best measures effectiveness and situations throughout a game. Mayfield is at 94.4 while Rudolph is on his heels at 92.7. The real surprise is at No. 3, where Texas Tech's Nik Shimonek comes in at 91.1, with nine TDs and zero interceptions through two contests. None of the three are afraid to take shots down the field, all averaging better than 11.5 yards per attempt.

 TCU's Hill is eighth in QBR, and West Virginia's Will Grier 13th, so the league is definitely getting solid play from the most important position on the field.

 I know Mayfield and Rudolph can play, and it's expected that their teams will be around for the duration of the season. Waiting is the preferred to take on Hill, who has teased with his talent before, only to come crashing back down to earth. Shimonek is a senior who has waited his turn, so he keep up his pace.

 Texas could have a quandary when injured Shane Buechele returns, though if it were up to a certain someone there would be no decision necessary -- freshman Sam Ehlinger would be the starter. The kid showed a ton of moxie in the loss to USC, not allowing the moment to overwhelm him. He has a good arm, he leads his receivers and he isn't afraid to tuck it an run. He doesn't always make the best decisions, but that can be worked on. Tom Herman seems to have found himself a potentially special talent, which means the Longhorns appear to be trending up -- just two weeks after America declared them dead after an opening loss to Maryland.

 While the SEC will continue to get the headlines, the Big 12 is lurking, waiting for fans to take notice.

 If the road wins haven't done it, then maybe the Sooners or Cowboys making the CFP will.

SEC Surprises
 Just about everyone expected Alabama to be unbeaten at this juncture, but three SEC teams have gotten off to surprisingly good starts, and all three could hang around for the balance of the season.

 Georgia and Florida were expected to rule the SEC East, and while the Bulldogs are unbeaten, Florida is just 1-1, and that's thanks largely to an improbable last second victory over Tennessee, who handles end of game situations about as poorly as any team in the country.

 Kentucky has started 3-0, relying on an active defense to prop up a pretty anemic offense. The Wildcats have held foes to 30 percent on third down conversions and are among the top 20 in turnover margin. Running back Bennie Snell hasn't quite gotten things going yet, averaging less than four yards a pop. But he does have three touchdowns and one of the highest usage rates in America, averaging nearly 24 carries per game.

 Vanderbilt also sits at 3-0, opening some eyes with a defeat of previously unbeaten Kansas State. Like Kentucky, the Commodores aren't lighting things up offensively. But lordy, that defense -- it's allowing less than 200 yards per game and just 13 points in three contests. Yes, we know that KSU is the only legit foe Vandy has faced, and it gets Bama next weekend. But linebacker Emmanuel Smith has been a real force, averaging nearly 10 tackles a game and 2.5 tackles for loss. He's good sideline to sideline and straight ahead, so offensive coordinators will need to know where he is at all times. He's that disruptive.

 In the West, Mississippi State is battling through being one of the youngest teams in the league, making a definitive statement in a 37-7 pasting of LSU on Saturday night. Nick Fitzgerald is a joy to watch, and he could own all of the school's quarterback records before he's finished. The offensive output hasn't been surprising, but the defense, currently ranked fourth in the nation, is allowing just 3.34 yards per play. The Bulldogs go to Georgia and Auburn the next two games, so we will see if they are for real.

Bears Growling
 An early candidate for coach of the year is Cal's Justin Wilcox, who has the Bears off to just their second 3-0 start since 2011. Sonny Dykes was pretty much a failure in Berkeley, known mostly for having terrible defenses. Wilcox, coordinator of Wisconsin's 2016 stifling stop unit, has the Bears believing after knocking off North Carolina and Ole Miss -- sure, not higher-rung FBS teams, but teams they would have lost to last season.

 The D isn't anything great statistically, but Cal has been opportunistic (top 20 in turnover margin) and stiffened up in the red zone, allowing just five TDs in 11 trips to the red zone by opponents. The talent isn't there yet on defense, and the offense is young. But Wilcox has his team playing well and believing in itself -- though that may change the next three weeks as Cal takes on USC, Oregon and Washington.

  Vols Fall?
 Tennessee found yet another way to fail against Florida, and Butch Jones may be feeling the heat because of it. Already under fire for an allegedly "horrible" culture within the program, Jones has now lost seven one possession games at Tennessee since 2014, and there seems to be growing doubt about his ability to get the program to the top of the SEC East.

 This latest loss to the Gators was even more confounding and demoralizing than the 2015 setback, when Florida scored on a 59-yard touchdown pass to Antonio Callaway with under 90 seconds remaining.

 This time it was merely a poor coverage on a last second heave by Feleipe Franks that fell into the waiting arms of Tyrie Cleveland, giving the Gators an improbable 26-20 victory when it appeared to everyone that they were playing for overtime.

 Jones has taken the Vols to consecutive 9-4 seasons, but losses to South Carolina and Vanderbilt and Arkansas, teams less talented than Tennessee, continue to slow the progress, and continues to keep the fan base restless.

 Tennessee can get well next week with a breather against UMass, but then it hosts Georgia. Should the Bulldogs win that one, then things will once again ratchet up for Jones. 

 Tennessee can be a great program -- the facilities are great, the money is there, the commitment to win is evident. It just doesn't appear that it can be great under Jones.

Poll Blindness
 I won't have any rankings until the end of next week, as it's pointless to do them now. Teams are still forming, you don't really know what is or isn't a good win, and too many voters just look at last week's list and jostle teams accordingly.

 Two things to know about my rankings -- first, there will only be 12 teams, as that is the number that is included in the New Years Six bowl games. I call it the Dandy Dozen, and it is pretty damn dandy.

 Second, I approach each week as its own entity, which means I don't keep a team at No. 1 just because it wins. Whatever team looks has the best resume at the end of that week, that's who will be atop my rankings. Which means that Alabama can win and still not be No. 1. I know, that sets the college football world on its ear, but it's really the only right way to do rankings. So, word of advice to everyone doing a top however many teams -- rank 'em and let everyone know, and then don't look at them next week when you're doing it again. Each week should be independent of the week before.

Thanks For Playing
 We said last time that we would introduce you to our little game of Thanks For Playing, in which we eliminate teams from the CFP race. You won't see any non-Power 5 teams here, as those typically aren't even in the mix until later in the season.


 A few teams have already been kicked to the curb, but the most notable eliminations this week are Texas, which is a shame because the Longhorns are going to be good sooner rather than later; Nebraska, which was probably never really a contender but is in a Power 5 league; and Stanford, which has a surprising number of defensive issues for a David Shaw-coached team

 Thirty six teams remain unbeaten, and next week features 10 games between teams with perfect records. So this stuff will begin to shake itself out.