By The Numbers -- Sept. 23

TOP GAMES
(16) TCU at (6) Oklahoma State
TRENDS
TCU is 11-3 ATS as a visiting dog since 2011, and 9-4 ATS as any kind of underdog since 2014; TCU has been on a bit of a skid in league play, going just 2-7 ATS in L9 Big 12 games; OSU just 8-8 L16 as chalk in Stillwater, but has been good in this series, covering four of the last five; the home team in the series is 4-1 ATS L5 contests; Cowboys 18-5 SU at home since 2014, but 0-4-1 L5 Big 12 openers.
ANALYSIS
Now we see what Oklahoma State is made of. Sure, the Cowboys have looked great in demolishing their first three foes, but none would really be considered very good. Meanwhile, TCU has played (and thrashed) a decent Arkansas test, so a case could be made that the Horned Frogs are more battle tested. TCU is 16th nationally in total defense, so is easily the best stop unit OSU has faced. One weakness, however, has been against the pass, where they allow a 6.9 yards per attempt. That will make Okie State QB Mason Rudolph's eyes light up, because he's currently averaging 12.1 ypa, with 11 TDs and just one interception. Rudolph has been exceptional against pressure, posting a 144.4 rating against Pittsburgh, and the Cowboys receiving weapons could be too plentiful for TCU to handle. If TCU can sustain some drives and not turn the football over, it has a shot. But it could be tough to run the ball against a Cowboys D that allows just 3.2 yards per carry this season. We believe in the Cowboys hype, and see this one turning into a second-half runaway.
Line -- OkState -13.5; Pick -- Oklahoma State 44-27

(17) Mississippi State at (11) Georgia
TRENDS
The home team is 3-0 in the series since 2006, and the last time MSU won in Athens was in 1956; Mississippi State a perfect 3-0 ATS this season, and is 9-3 ATS L12 as a road underdog; MSU is 12-10-1 ATS coming off a SU win but just 3-2 ATS the week after facing LSU; Georgia is just 1-5 as home chalk under Kirby Smart but has gone 10-3 vs SEC West since 2013; UGA just 9-16 ATS coming off a SU victory and 6-11 ATS as a home favorite since 2014
ANALYSIS
Thinking the Bulldogs win this one ... OK, OK, OK. Mississippi State enters the game sky-high after a 37-7 beatdown of LSU that really wasn't that close, but this is another step up as Georgia has a real live offense. We still don't know if MSU has really faced any competition, but we do know that QB Nick Fitzgerald is worth the price of admission. One of the best dual threat quarterbacks in the nation, Fitzgerald isn't afraid to put a team on his back. Georgia wasn't sharp against Samford last week, but RB Nick Chubb had a big game (two TDs) and will need to carry the load as running mate Sony Michel is likely out for this one. QB Jake Fromm was steady and tossed three TDs in his first home start. He should be more comfortable, and Georgia's defense might just have a chance to crank things up. While Mississippi State has been impressive, we believe more in the host Bulldogs here.
Line -- Georgia -4.5; Pick -- Georgia 27-20

(4) Penn State at Iowa
TRENDS
Nittany Lions have been red-hot vs. number, possessing a 12-1 spread mark in L13 and covering five in a row away from Happy Valley; Penn State has won three straight in the series, the last two by 20+; Iowa just 6-7 as a dog since 2014, but 2-1 at home in that role; Hawkeyes have been a DD home dog just 16 times since 1981 and are 11-5 ATS in that span.
ANALYSIS
Penn State sure looks the part of national title contender, demoralizing its first three foes 141-14 and holding a +7 turnover margin. They have turned those turnovers into 49 points, so we'll see if they can be as successful against an Iowa team that has put the ball on the ground five times in three games. This one will be a showdown of running backs, Saquon Barkley for Penn State and Akrum Wadley for Iowa. Barkley has been a monster (8.1 ypc, 3 scores), while Wadley has merely been consistent (4.3 ypc, 1 TD). Penn State have averaged nearly 8.3 yards per play and Iowa has allowed nearly 5.4 yards per play to opponents. So the edge certainly appears to be with the visitors. Don't be surprised if Iowa tries to take the air out of the football, not putting QB Nathan Stanley in a position where he has to make plays. Iowa does have a penchant for making things interesting at home, at night, beating second-ranked Michigan last year in Kinnick Stadium. Iowa just doesn't seem to have the horses to keep up with Penn State's offense, but does have the defense, led by LB Josey Jewell, to keep it competitive. Iowa is 11th nationally in opponents third down percentage (23.7), so winning that number makes it a very interesting contest.
Line -- Iowa +12.5; Pick -- Penn State 30-24

OTHER GAMES
UNLV at (10) Ohio State -- Rebs have dropped 17 straight games vs. ranked foes; UNLV has played in the Eastern time zone 10 times, and is 0-10 in those contests; UNLV just 14-18-1 ATS vs. non-conference opposition since 2010, but is 13-6 ATS as a road dog since 2013; OSU has been a favorite of 40 or more points eight times in the last 38 seasons, going 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS; Buckeyes 13-7 ATS vs. non-league foes; OSU 5-10-1 as home fave since 2015
Line -- OSU -40.5; Pick -- Ohio State 52-7

Texas Tech at Houston -- Tech 6-2 ATS as a visiting dog the last two seasons, and has won six of the seven games in the series; Red Raiders a nifty 8-4 ATS as road dog since 2014; Houston is just 5-14-1 as home chalk since 2014; Cougars excellent coming off SU win, going 15-11-2 ATS
Line -- Houston -6; Pick -- Texas Tech 38-34

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas (at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas) -- A&M is 5-0 SU vs. Hogs since 2012, winning by average of 19 points; Ags just 2-9-1 ATS in L11 games; A&M 4-5-1 ATS in neutral site games under Sumlin; Arkansas has lost three straight in Arlington; Razorbacks 3-2-1 at neutral site under Bielema
Line -- Arkansas -2.5; Pick -- Texas A&M 32-24

NC State at (12) Florida State -- Wolfpack 3-1-1 ATS L5 in this series and 4-1 ATS in past five road contests; NCState 6-2 ATS in last eight trips to Tallahassee; FSU just 8-11 as home chalk since 2014, but on a hot streak at 4-1 ATS in L5 home tilts; Noles 5-15-1 ATS in the past 21 meetings
Line -- Florida State -11.5; Pick -- NC State 31-28

Ohio at Eastern Michigan -- Bobcats 8-3 ATS L11 as a dog and 6-1 ATS L7 as a visitor; EMU 11-2 ATS L13 since early 2016, and beat OU in Athens for first time since 1994
Line -- EMichigan -2; Pick -- Ohio 27-23

UCF at Maryland -- UCF is 25-24 ATS away from home in last 49 trips and 4-2 ATS as a visitor since Scott Frost took over last season; Knights 5-16 SU in road openers since 1996; UCF 3-23 in regular season road games vs current Power 5 schools since 2001; Maryland 22-37 ATS as favorite since 2004; Terps 10-9 ATS vs. non-B1G since 2013 and 6-6 ATS as a home favorite since 2014, and 2-2-1 ATS as home fave of 6 or fewer since 2014
Line -- Maryland -4.5; Pick -- Maryland 38-32

(1) Alabama at Vanderbilt -- Bama 8-1 ATS L9 as an SEC visitor; Alabama hasn't lost in Nashville since 1969 and is 7-4 ATS as a visiting favorite since 2014; Vandy is 3-0 for the first time since 2011, and owns a 9-3 spread record in 12 games a home underdog since 2014; Vandy hasn't beaten the Tide since 1984
Line -- Vanderbilt +19; Pick -- Alabama 23-18

Duke at North Carolina -- Duke 3-0 ATS this season, including two wins on the road; UNC has lost first two at home this season, but have optimism as the home team is 6-2 ATS past eight meetings, and the underdog is 4-1 ATS the last five; UNC just 7-13-1 as a home dog since 2012
Line -- NCarolina +2; Pick -- Duke 34-22

(5) USC at California -- Trojans have covered just three of last 10 road contests, and are 7-15 ATS over their past 22 road games vs. teams with winning home records; Cal just 1-4 ATS L5 Pac-12 tilts and 1-5 ATS L6 vs. winning foes; Cal 0-6 ATS L6 at home vs USC; Road team is 15-6 L21 in the series.
Line -- Cal +17; Pick -- USC 44-30

Toledo at (14) Miami (Fla.) -- Rockets just 1-2 ATS this season and 3-8-1 ATS last 12 lined games; Toledo 14-8 ATS as a dog since 2012 and 8-2 L10 ATS as visitor in non-MAC games; Miami 16-9-1 ATS since start of 2015, and Richt covered five straight to close 2016 before a non-cover in this year's opener.
Line -- Miami -13.5; Pick -- Miami 36-28

(8) Michigan at Purdue -- First meeting since 2012, but Wolverines are 22-5 SU vs Purdue since 1980; Michigan is just 2-7 as DD fave in conference road games since 2007; Purdue is 3-30 SU in conference play dating back to 2013; Purdue has been a DD home dog nine times since October of 2013, and are 0-9 ATS and 1-8 SU
Line -- Purdue +10.5; Pick -- Michigan 24-16

(22) San Diego State at Air Force -- Aztecs 7-3 ATS L10 as Mountain West road favorites and 15-6 L21 ATS in Mountain West games; SDSU has won six straight meetings; Air Force 5-0 ATS as home dogs since 2014; Falcons just 3-8 ATS off of a straight up loss
Line -- Air Force +3; Pick -- San Diego State 31-24

Syracuse at (25) LSU -- Cuse 5-8 ATS against FBS foes since last season, and 2-5 as a DD underdog; LSU 12-6-1 as home fave since 2014 and 7-4 ATS coming off of a SU loss
Line -- LSU -21; Pick -- LSU 35-13

(20) Florida at Kentucky -- Florida has won 30 -- yes, that's right -- 30 straight in this series, the longest active winning streak in an FBS rivalry; Kentucky has won 10 of its last 13 regular season games, but are an abysmal 2-10-2 ATS L14 as home underdogs in the past five seasons
Line -- Kentucky +2; Pick -- Kentucky 24-21

Notre Dame at Michigan State -- Irish just 5-13-1 ATS in this series since 1994, and only 2-7-1 ATS as a road favorite since 1980; Sparty has won 11 of the 18 meetings since 1997 after losing 17 of 19 from 1976-94 and is 6-3-1 ATS L10 vs Irish
Line -- Michigan State +3; Pick -- Michigan State 24-23

(7) Washington at Colorado -- Huskies are 7-0 ATS last seven in this series, and the favorite has covered five straight; Washington 6-9 vs. number L14; Colorado 6-3 as a home dog since 2014 and 11-5 ATS L16 as a Pac-12 host;
Line -- Colorado +11.5; Pick -- Washington 40-25

UCLA at Stanford -- Bruins just 2-7 L9 road contests and 2-8 ATS in last 10 trips to The Farm; Stanford has failed to cover four straight at home and are 0-5 ATS L5 vs. teams with winning overall records; Stanford has not lost three games in a row in seven seasons under David Shaw
Line -- Stanford -7; Pick -- Stanford 31-27 

2017 RECORD
SU -- 35-8; ATS -- 34-29-1