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| The hype is off the charts for this year's edition of The Game |
With everything that has been swirling around in the buildup to this year’s edition of The Game, you can forgive both teams if they are a little disconnected from the rest of the football world. Both Ohio State and Michigan have been preparing as best they can, and now that all of that is done there is just one question remaining.
When can we play some football?
The wait won’t be a terribly long one – just a little after high noon on Saturday, in Michigan Stadium. The Buckeyes and Wolverines will renew a rivalry that is not only the best in college football, but one that has a bit more vitriol than usual. The fanbases of both schools always have their rival high in their thoughts, but this year it’s a little different.
The in-person scouting allegations levied against Michigan have created a bunker mentality among the fanbase – including a break from reality as it comes up with counter allegations, none coming from credible, national media – changing the narrative from simply wanting to beat the Buckeyes to beating them bad enough to break the program.
On the other side, Buckeyes fans have acquired a quiet confidence, and believe that the distractions surrounding the Michigan program will be enough to affect the Wolverines and their ability to focus on the task at hand.
To its credit, Michigan sounds like it knows what lies ahead.
“It’s all about our preparation for Ohio,” head coach Jim Harbaugh said. “The days, the minutes, the hours — everything leading up to this game — that’s where our focus is. Preparing ourselves and planning. Going to practice and then execute. So, anything else is irrelevant when you get into this kind of big game week.”
Harbaugh will not be on the sidelines for this game, which is the final of his three-game suspension levied by the Big Ten in the wake of the in-person scouting allegations. As he has previously, offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore will be the acting head coach as the Buckeyes come to town.
Ryan Day may not talk much about legacy, but he is at what some might call a crossroads, coming off of consecutive losses to the Wolverines, by double-digit margins. There is a growing sentiment that the Buckeyes lack toughness, and that maybe the rivalry contest isn’t approached with the same focus as in previous years. Day approaches the game differently than predecessor Urban Meyer, and if the outcome is the same as it has been the past two years that approach will come under even more scrutiny.
“Not that it’s easy, but the only thing that matters is this game, is this team, is preparing,” Day said. “The rest of it doesn’t matter. We have got to stay disciplined enough to focus on that. It goes back to the conversation about emotion, letting emotion of the game and everything get in the way. We can’t do that. And every year, you learn more and more about this game and the preparation for it. We’re not going to let any of that stuff get in our way, in terms of distractions. We’re just going to focus on this team, this season and preparing the best we possibly can.”
Both teams are currently in the top four in the College Football Playoff rankings – Ohio State at number two, Michigan at three – so there is a ton riding on the outcome. The loser almost certainly will be on the outside looking in while the winner will be off to the Big Ten championship game and, quite probably, the CFP.
This is the 14th meeting between the teams when both are ranked top five, and Ohio State holds a 7-5-1 advantage in such contests. The home team has won 10 times in this situation, though Michigan bucked that trend last year with a 45-23 victory.
A lot has been made of Michigan’s lackluster schedule, as well as the fact it has looked much more mortal the past two weekends in wins over Penn State and Maryland. The Buckeyes will be the sternest test this season for the Wolverines, but there doesn’t seem to be a ton of concern from the UM camp.
“It’s really a battle tested team,” Harbaugh said. “Amazing effort. The way our players have gone about things, coaches, players … I just think back over the last five, six weeks, especially, it’s just been like a high-pitched siren, like a deafening, ear-piercing noise. After awhile, you start to tolerate it. And then before you know it, you just block it out.”
Day has heard the talk, heard that the Buckeyes need to win and win now, especially when the Wolverines are down their head coach. He’s not having any of it.
“I think with everything going on and the things that are out there, we just kind of stayed away from all the distraction,” Day said. “We have just focused on our team. I think our guys have done a good job of it. I think when you talk to our guys, I’ve talked to them a couple of times about what’s gone on this season and going into the game, but they’re focused on this game, they’re focused on this season, they’re focused on their preparation.”
OHIO STATE OFFENSE
After spending much of the year looking for its groove, the Buckeyes offense has seemingly hit its stride. Ohio State has averaged 6.59 yards per play over the last four games, and currently sits 18th in the nation in total offense. OSU still is a bit inconsistent finishing drives, sitting at just 61.70 in red zone touchdowns percentage. But that, too, has been trending upward as Ohio State has punched in 75 percent of its red zone trips over the last three contests.
That improvement has come with the return to health of running back TreVeyon Henderson, who has netted 499 yards and five touchdowns in four games since returning to the lineup. His blend of balance, vision and burst has been a nightmare for opposing defenses, and Michigan will have its hands full trying to stop Henderson before he reaches the second level. The Buckeyes have helped him a bit by using motion and bringing in an extra tight end for blocking, and it has worked well. Henderson is especially dangerous between the tackles, where he can pick a hole, put his foot in the ground and cut to daylight.
Kyle McCord followed the best game of his career against Michigan State with a bit of an up and down contest against Minnesota. He has been turnover free in the last two contests and has done a better job going through progressions instead of locking onto his first read. He has been in the fire this season and come out unscathed, but this is his first start in the most hostile environment he has seen. Michigan likes to stunt and twist with its interior players, so McCord may need to get outside the pocket a bit more than usual.
McCord’s
primary focus will be Marvin Harrison Jr., who had seven grabs for 120 yards
and a score in last year’s game, and he presents major problems for the
Wolverines. It’s likely that Will Johnson will be trailing Harrison for most of
the game, and that’s a matchup that should be worth the price of admission. Johnson
is fearless in coverage and will need to be physical against Harrison, who
always has an advantage due to the precision of his routes. Look for OSU to
move Harrison all over the formation – out wide, in the slot, even offset in
the backfield. Emeka Egbuka appears to be back to health, and if Johnson has
success limiting Harrison, then Egbuka could end up with a big afternoon. He is
excellent underneath and near the boundary, and McCord has looked to him in
clutch situations more than a few times. Tight end Cade Stover is the wild card
for OSU, with the size and speed to create mismatches. 
Marvin Harrison Jr (Ohio State Athletics)
The game will be won or lost up front, and while the Buckeyes have improved in run blocking, there have still been some anxious moments in pass protection. Ohio State may need to use more of a quick passing game early, getting the ball to the edges with Henderson and Harrison and Egbuka and Xavier Johnson. Michigan’s edge rush is not great, but the Wolverines have shown they can get home bringing just four so McCord will need to be cognizant of pressure and his checkdowns.
OHIO STATE DEFENSE
The Buckeyes are near the top in most important defensive statistics and have looked nearly impenetrable at times this season. But that was the story last year, too, and Michigan was able to parlay six big plays into a runaway victory. A slight tweaking of the scheme has paid huge dividends for the Buckeyes, who have allowed a nation’s-best one play of 40-plus yards this season. The return of Mike Hall Jr inside will fortify an already strong interior, and that could make things difficult for the Wolverines as they like to do their damage between the tackles. DC Jim Knowles has not blitzed as much this season as he did in 2022, but he could have a few surprises in store for this game.
Ohio
State’s discipline and attention to detail has been paramount in the unit’s improvement,
and that will need to continue as Michigan seldom beats itself. The move to a single-high safety has made a world of difference and has prevented teams from getting to the end zone after breaking through to the second level. It has also allowed Ohio State to change up its looks pre-snap, often showing blitz and then dropping into coverage. Knowles hasn't been afraid to bring a blitz off the edge from that additional safety, however, so don't be shocked if the Buckeyes get pressure with some unconventional methods.
The Buckeyes are eighth in the country in opponent’s third down conversions, at less than 30 percent, and if it can get Michigan into third-and-medium or third-and-long situations it will allow Knowles to get creative. Michigan has averaged just 4.8 yards per play in its last two games and hasn’t had a touchdown pass in its last three. If the Buckeyes can get Michigan off-schedule and away from the ground game, it will have a huge advantage.
MICHIGAN OFFENSE
Even without Harbaugh on the sideline Michigan has retained its identity as a physical team that wants to play bully ball. It ran the football on 32 consecutive plays against Penn State and was able to pick up some key first downs on the ground against Maryland late in the contest.
JJ McCarthy (Michigan Athletics)
Still,
something looks off with the Wolverines offense. Quarterback JJ McCarthy has
not been asked to do much – and while some UM fans will say that’s been a
choice because the ground game has been so good, it could be more of a concern
with leaky pass protection on the outside. Penn State abused Michigan’s
tackles, and Maryland was able to bring pressure quite a bit, as well. McCarthy
had his worst game of the season against the Terrapins, completing just 52
percent and throwing an interception. Michigan likes to work the boundary with
out-breaking intermediate routes, but teams that have been able to bring
pressure and get in McCarthy’s face on rollouts have had success. McCarthy has
also had issues recently with the levels of the passing attack, hitting almost
nothing deep and being forced to make a lot of underneath throws.
Michigan’s ground game has been steady but lacks explosiveness, and that could be a real problem against the Buckeyes. Blake Corum has been a hammer in the red zone, scoring 20 touchdowns, but has had only 10 percent of his runs go for more than 10 yards. Last year he was over 15 percent and looked smoother and faster than he has this season. Donovan Edwards was the hero of last year’s contest, scoring two long touchdowns, but has been largely a non-factor in 2023 with just three scores and a 3.4 yards per carry average.
The battle up front will be key as the strength of Michigan’s line is its interior. Zak Zinter is an All-America type at one guard, and Trevor Keegan has been consistent opposite him. Drake Nugent has been steady as a pivot, but there are worries at tackle as Karsen Barnhart and Myles Hinton have struggled in recent weeks. That could be a problem against OSU’s J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer off the edge. Michigan has been able to minimize those problems by going heavy, with as many as nine up front, and may need to do that against Ohio State to keep the chains moving.
UM receivers will have their work cut out against Ohio State’s Denzel Burke, who is playing at the All-America level of his freshman season, and the emerging Jordan Hancock on the opposite side. Michigan is 43rd nationally in pass plays of 20-plus yards and 110th in passes over 30-plus yards, and while Roman Wilson has shown to be a deep threat he has just one catch over the last two contests. Tight end Colston Loveland has been a favorite target for McCarthy, and he was a hero in last year’s contest and should be targeted frequently against the Buckeyes.
MICHIGAN DEFENSE
Michigan uses a lot of passive pressure – showing false looks pre-snap and a bunch of movement post-snap to confuse the quarterback – and also does a lot of coverage rotation on the back end out of that. This makes the quarterback think longer than he wants to, which allows the pressure to get home.
The
Wolverines front six is as good as any in America, especially along the inside.
Tackles Mason Graham, Kris Jenkins and Kenneth Grant are a lethal combo who all
have quickness and power, and have destroyed offensive lines for most of the
season. They can get upfield quickly, but even on the occasion when the offense
wins, they have been excellent at staying in their gap and recovering to make
the stop. They seldom get too wide or take bad angles, which is why they have been so effective. Michigan rotates as many as 10 guys up front during games, which has helped the starters stay fresh at crunch time.
There
isn’t a ton of blitzing from this group because it can affect teams with just
four. That leaves linebackers Junior Colson, Michael Barrett and Ernest Hausmann
to roam free and find the football. Colson is a leader and the latest in a long line of stellar Michigan linebackers. He isn't flashy and his stats won't wow you, but he gets the job done. Barrett was nicked up against Maryland but appears ready to go, which is good news for Michigan as he has been one of the chief disruptors on the squad.
The secondary is led by corners Will Johnson and Mike Sainristil, two of the better cover guys in college football, and hard-hitting safety Rod Moore has shown that he deserves to be among the better safeties in the country. The active Wolverines have picked off 14 passes and lead the country with four Pick-6s, so McCord will need to make decisions quickly while Michigan attempts to flummox him with its rotations and coverage changes.
TALE OF THE TAPE
*POINTS PER DRIVE OFFENSE: Ohio State 3.01 (12), Michigan 3.84 (4)
*POINTS PER DRIVE DEFENSE: Ohio State .90 (2), Michigan .75 (1)
*NET POINTS PER DRIVE: Ohio State 2.11 (5), Michigan 3.09 (1)
*YARDS PER PLAY OFFENSE: Ohio State 6.74 (19), Michigan 7.03 (8)
*YARDS PER PLAY DEFENSE: Ohio State 4.36 (4), Michigan 3.59 (1)
*NET YARDS PER PLAY: Ohio State 2.38 (5), Michigan 3.45 (1)
POINTS PER PLAY OFFENSE: Ohio State .499 (T-15), Michigan .604 (5)
POINTS PER PLAY DEFENSE: Ohio State .145 (1), Michigan .155 (2)
YARDS PER POINT OFFENSE: Ohio State 12.7 (22), Michigan 10.4 (1)
YARDS PER POINT DEFENSE: Ohio State 26.8 (1), Michigan 26.2 (2)
TURNOVER MARGIN: Ohio State +1 (T-53), Michigan +12 (T-3)
RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: Ohio State 61.70 (64), Michigan 75.00 (T-11)
OPPONENT RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: Ohio State 45.45 (T-11), Michigan 33.33 (1)
THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: Ohio State 46.15 (20), Michigan 52.00 (4)
OPPONENT THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: Ohio State 29.19 (8), Michigan 30.34 (15)
SACK RATE: Ohio State 5.76 (T-78), Michigan 8.85 (13)
SACK RATE ALLOWED: Ohio State 4.86 (31), Michigan 4.69 (35)
#MISSED TACKLES: Ohio State 83, Michigan 56
SCORING OFFENSE: Ohio State 33.6 (24), Michigan 38.3 (11)
AVERAGE SCORING DEFENSE FACED (Points/Ranking): Ohio State 23.4/55, Michigan 23.4/55
SCORING DEFENSE: Ohio State 9.3 (2), Michigan 9.0 (1)
AVERAGE SCORING OFFENSE FACED (Points/Ranking): Ohio State 26.4/79, Michigan 24.3/87
*STATS TAKEN FROM BCFTOYS.COM
# STATS TAKEN FROM PRO FOOTBALL FOCUS
WHAT WILL HAPPEN
The hype for this one has been off the charts, and understandably so. On one hand you have Michigan circling the wagons and seeing Ohio State as the enemy that started all of the distractions, and on the other you have the Buckeyes playing their best football but still having that small hint of doubt about whether it can finally get it done after consecutive disappointments.
Michigan has looked dominant for much of the season, though the last two games have been more slogs than slugfests. The Wolverines have looked disjointed on offense and have needed help from the defense and special teams to come away with the victory. McCarthy is still dangerous, especially given his mobility, but he’s looked increasingly uncomfortable when he’s had to make plays in the face of pressure.
Look for Ohio State to mix coverages, show pressure from inside before bringing it from the edge to prevent McCarthy from getting outside of the pocket. Ohio State’s coverage is not a concern, though it has been a bit sloppy in tackling – and that led to couple of Michigan’s scoring plays a year ago. If the Buckeyes can clean up that aspect, it’s hard to see Michigan making a ton of big plays. The ground game has been efficient, but Corum is not the same back as he was last season. He still loves to bounce things outside, so it is imperative that Ohio State have discipline in edge containment. The Buckeyes pass rush can get home against Michigan’s tackles, so Michigan may need to get creative and create some long drives that can control the clock.
McCord is squarely in the crosshairs for the Buckeyes, but he has not shied away from big moments. He came through against both Notre Dame and Penn State, but this is an entirely different animal. Michigan has feasted on turnovers, and if McCord cannot solve the Wolverines post-snap rotations and coverages it could be a long day. The Buckeyes have been clever in scheming to get Harrison open, so look for him to approach 15 touches on the afternoon. He will be the best player on the field for either team, so the Buckeyes would be wise to give him a chance to operate. Having said that, the real X-factor is Henderson in the backfield. Michigan has allowed just 2.96 yards per carry this season and has blown things up inside, which is Henderson’s preferred area of operation. Don’t be surprised if Ohio State runs him more on outside stretch and off-tackle plays, getting him one-on-one against a defender in space. His elusiveness and wiggle have meant big plays for the Buckeyes, and he appears primed to have a big game.
While Ohio State has the better top-to-bottom roster, Michigan has done a better job sticking to its identity. The Wolverines know who they are and what they do well, and seldom deviate from that. To this point they haven’t found a team that can stand up to that approach, though the Buckeyes appear to be the best-equipped to do so.
It’s been difficult to get a read on this one due to red flags on both sides.
For Michigan it’s the leaky pass protection coupled with Ohio State’s ability to affect the passer, as well as the lack of explosiveness in the ground game. If the Buckeyes can stay disciplined and rattle McCarthy early it could be enough to throw the entire offense into disarray. It’s unlikely that the busts of last year happen, so the Wolverines will need to get creative if they want to create chunk plays.
For Ohio State, an inability to finish drives in the red zone has been worrisome, but to this point hasn’t cost the Buckeyes because they have been the better team. Play calling has also been predictable, with runs coming on early downs in an attempt to get McCord settled in. Day may need to get more aggressive and have McCord get the ball to his playmakers underneath and allow them to make plays. If Day has anything in his bag of tricks it might not be the worst time to bring it out.
The feeling here is that this is a back-and-forth contest, with both teams landing haymakers at various points. OSU has averaged 28 points per game on the road this season, though that could be a tad inflated due to blowouts over Purdue and Rutgers. Michigan has been lethal at home, allowing just over seven points per contest in the Big House, and that’s hard to overlook.
With turmoil swirling around it, Michigan feels secure and confident playing in the confines of its home field, which could be just enough to provide an edge. This is a top-five matchup, and in 13 other such occasions between these two teams the home squad has come out on top 10 times. Not sure how it’s going to happen – a special teams play, a turnover that provides a short field, a late grind-it-out drive – but from this vantage point it looks like Michigan does just enough to stay unbeaten.
MICHIGAN 23, OHIO STATE (+3.5) 21
