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| Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr makes a big play vs Penn State in 2022 |
This Saturday at Ohio Stadium cameras will be all over the place, and they will be filming teamwork, sacrifice and maybe even a chosen one, a hero who rises up to save the day.
No, it’s not the latest MCU picture filming in Columbus but rather a titanic, high-stakes, drama-filled showdown between Ohio State (#1 in CFB Focus Power Ratings) and Penn State (#5). And though there will be a good deal of conflict and combat, this one will be played out on the gridiron instead of the movie screen.
Both teams took care of their business last week in the lead-up to this contest, OSU blowing out Purdue and the Nittany Lions manhandling UMass.
The showdown presents opportunity for each team – for Penn State, a chance to show that it has finally ascended to equal footing with the Buckeyes, (and maybe Michigan, too) and for Ohio State, killing the narrative that it can’t win “big games” under Ryan Day.
James Franklin has assembled what may be his best team in his 10 years in State College, but there is a lot of history against him. For one, he has never beaten the Buckeyes in Ohio Stadium, and is just 1-8 against the Buckeyes as Penn State’s leader. PSU has lost six in a row in the series, and is just 3-15 against top 10 teams under Franklin, the last being the 2023 Rose Bowl over Utah. Prior to that, Penn State had not beaten a top 10 squad since the 2016 Big Ten title game victory over Wisconsin. Penn State is also 0-9 on the road against top 10 teams under Franklin. So recent history has not been kind to PSU in big games.
Day is under the microscope because the Buckeyes aren’t bludgeoning people the way they have in recent seasons, and there is the specter of the season finale in Ann Arbor – and two straight losses to Michigan -- looming. While OSU fans will look for anything to complain about, you’d be hard-pressed to find a coach who has been more successful so early in his career. Day has never lost to Penn State and is 51-6 in his time in charge of the Buckeyes.
He knows that this game can fill his team with confidence, keep hopes alive for a Big Ten East title and, most importantly, stay squarely in the hunt for a berth in the College Football Playoff.
“We've learned a little bit about some of the guys who we didn't know early in the season, but our guys have the pen to go write the script of what the season's gonna look like, and that's really what matters. A big part is going to be what happens on Saturday,” the Buckeyes coach said.
Ohio State has played top-notch defense this season as DC Jim Knowles has tweaked his system ever-so-slightly, with a bit less blitzing and more of the linebackers bailing and dropping into coverage. It may be no coincidence that the Buckeyes have not allowed many explosive plays this season – just four gains over 30 yards, and none over 40, one of only three teams to have accomplished that feat.
Penn State is also playing defense at a high-level, getting a huge push from its defensive front – a nation-leading 4.5 sacks per game – and overwhelming opponents with physical play and athleticism. Ohio State has struggled in protection this year, so it will somehow need to find a way to keep the Nittany Lions pass rushers at bay.
Maybe easier said than done.
“This will be the biggest challenge to date. They’re very twitchy, very quick,” Day said of the Penn State defense. “They get after the quarterback at a high level. Both (defensive) ends are NFL players for sure. They’ve been very productive, disruptive. So our tackles in particular are going to have to do a great job. They’re creative about where they align guys and everything. It’s going to be everybody. They do a lot of moving and a lot of blitzing, so we’ve got to be on our game.”
Ohio State will need to get Penn State into second- and third-and long situations, get it behind the sticks because the Nittany Lions have not been explosive on offense in 2023. If OSU can win third down, it will basically be stealing possessions. And with Penn State geared to grind the ball down the field, possessions could be at a premium.
Penn State is 20th nationally in third down conversions at 48.28 percent, but has had problems converting on 3rd-and-seven or longer. In 38 attempts, the Nittany Lions have converted just 10 – 26.3 percent -- for first downs.
With a heavy emphasis on the ground game (58-42 run-pass ratio), don’t be surprised if the Buckeyes use three linebackers more than usual. Whether than means Sonny Styles playing closer to the line than he does at safety or more reps for Cody Simon, the Buckeyes will need to be flexible along the second line to counter what Penn State wants to do. Styles versatility could allow Knowles to change up his calls and be a little more aggressive against a Penn State offensive line that has allowed only four sacks.
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| James Franklin |
Franklin has been impressed with Ohio State’s stop unit and knows that it will be a challenge to put together clock-eating drives as the Buckeyes have better personnel than any team the Nittany Lions have faced this season, and they will no doubt mix up their looks to confuse first-year starting quarterback Drew Allar (12 TDs, 0 INT, 74.7 QBR, 27th).
“When you're playing, say, a traditional 4-3 or traditional 3-4, you've got rules of how you account for the guys in the box,” Franklin explained. “How you're going to block to the SAM, combo block to the Mike, combo block to the Will, or you're reading the Will in the RPO. Now they've got this extra safety, it's different than your normal rules of how you account for that guy in the run game, how you account for that guy in the passing game either as a blitzer or as a robber in coverage. So that's where it can become challenging is, you're having to teach things different than you normally do, you're trying to as much as you can teach “same as” or this is “like this.” This defense kind of forces you out of that a little bit and it's got to be more specific to this defense and how they play. So, you just don't have the accumulated reps against this type of defense because you don’t see it very often.”
If the Buckeyes are able to stifle Penn State’s offense early and grab a lead, don’t look for the Nittany Lions to panic.
“I think what you have to be careful of, is you have to understand and figure out what the identity of your team is and embrace that identity no matter what the outside world is saying,” Franklin said. “You have to be comfortable in your own skin and own who you are and how you have to play. That doesn't mean that you're not looking to improve in certain areas.
“I think the Iowa game is a really good example. We went in at halftime and said, look, let's not change who we are. Those runs in the first half that were going for three to four yards started to go for eight to 10 yards. For me, I think it's staying true to our identity and what has got us here, while still saying, OK, these are some areas where we have to improve, whether that's on offense, defense, whether that's on special teams.”
No opponent, save for Michigan, obviously, has played Ohio State as consistently tough as Penn State has.
Only once in the last seven meetings had the outcome been decided prior to the fourth quarter, that being 2020. Penn State has had ample opportunity to nab victory from the Buckeyes but allowed late leads to slip away in both 2017 and 2018, could not get closer than four points in 2019, six points in 2021 and six points in 2022, after opening the quarter with a two point edge. Two quick Ohio State touchdowns made the margin appear comfortable when the game was a struggle most of the way.
Failing in those close games has given Penn State a steely resolve, one that Franklin believes will help on Saturday if the game is close heading into the closing moments.
“Obviously, you’ve got to be able to win big games in the fourth quarter. Got to be able to win one-possession games,” he said. “We practice those things with two-minute drills and things like that. We expect this to be one of those types of games. We've played these guys for a long time. Probably up to the last two years, probably played them as well as anybody in the conference. But we've got to find a way to be able to win in the fourth quarter and win these one-possession games.”
Day knows it will take all of the energy and fire and discipline the Buckeyes have if they want to knock off Penn State. He is pleased that the troops appear ready for the challenge.
“This team likes to be coached hard,” Day said. “This is a great team that can get pushed. They respond well to it. This is a tough game, and it’s my job to bring it every week. Every Saturday. And push as hard as I can. I think the guys like to see the passion.”
WHAT THEY’LL DO
Penn State Offense
The Nittany Lions want to be deliberate and grind out the clock – evidence being Allar’s 5.5 average air yards per throw, one of the lowest in college football. Penn State seldom goes deep – partly because the receivers have not consistently created separation, and partly because the sledgehammer style, with a powerful offensive line and two backs that can run over and around foes, has worked nicely to this point. Penn State has lived off the horizontal passing game this year, even with an upgrade of arm talent at quarterback. Maybe this is week Allar is unleashed, but it’s been odd that there haven’t been more shots downfield from Penn State. To beat Ohio State, Penn State will need to somehow create explosive plays. Given how it has operated to this juncture, and how good Ohio State’s stop unit has been at avoiding those, that could be a tough ask. It won’t be any kind of surprise for Penn State to get its blockers to the second level, the question is whether the ground game will be able to make defenders miss in the hole. Allar is most comfortable when he has time to operate, though he has been low-key good when the pocket has moved. He’s good with progressions and finding the open man, so coverage will be key for Ohio State. Penn State will likely use quick release passes to players in space to keep the chains (and clock) moving.
Penn State Defense
It’s all about disruption for the Nittany Lions defense, as Manny Diaz wants to get guys on the field who are athletic and aggressive. He’ll bring those athletes – often the linebackers – through gaps on blitzes, with the goal of getting upfield and wrecking Ohio State’s gameplan. Penn State will play mostly man coverage, which means All-America candidate Kalen King could be matched up with OSU’s Marvin Harrison Jr. That, friends, is a battle worth the price of admission. The safeties are thumpers, and the defensive front has quickness and power, led by end Chop Robinson. He can single-handedly impact a game, and he will move around within the front seven to find mismatches. Penn State thrives on creating turnovers, and Diaz has been masterful at rotating players – sometimes showing five and six defensive backs, sometimes playing three defensive ends, sometimes playing four linebackers. It keeps players fresh and keeps opposing offenses guessing as the personnel changes from series to series, and sometimes from play to play.
Ohio State Offense
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| Kyle McCord |
Ohio State Defense
The Buckeyes have tweaked things just a bit, as noted above, and aren't attacking as much as last season. Knowles has preached more gap soundness, and it has paid off. Maybe the sacks haven’t been there, but the Buckeyes have been able to affect the passer enough, and the explosive plays from opponents have been almost non-existent. Where last year OSU favored a Cover Zero, blitzing, no deep safety approach, which allowed for explosive plays in the two biggest games of the season (Michigan and Georgia), this year the Buckeyes are bringing heat with just four and relying on the back seven to play their assignment. Up front things have shifted a bit from the ends getting home to the interior guys making a mess of opposing offenses. OSU is likely to be without lockdown corner Denzel Burke, so it could be up to true freshman Jermaine Mathews to make his presence felt opposite Jordan Hancock and Davison Igbinosun.
TALE OF THE TAPE
*POINTS PER DRIVE OFFENSE: Penn State 3.29 (13), Ohio State 3.11 (17)
*POINTS PER DRIVE DEFENSE: Penn State .79 (3), Ohio State 1.02 (4)
*NET POINTS PER DRIVE: Penn State 2.51 (2), Ohio State 2.09 (8)
*YARDS PER PLAY OFFENSE: Penn State 5.23 (95), Ohio State 6.87 (17)
*YARDS PER PLAY DEFENSE: Penn State 3.29 (1), Ohio State 4.27 (5)
*NET YARDS PER PLAY: Penn State 1.94 (9), Ohio State 2.61 (3)
POINTS PER PLAY OFFENSE: Penn State .540 (12), Ohio State .547 (T9)
POINTS PER PLAY DEFENSE: Penn State .128 (3), Ohio State .148 (4)
YARDS PER POINT OFFENSE: Penn State 9.9 (1), Ohio State 12.0 (13)
YARDS PER POINT DEFENSE: Penn State 24.9 (5), Ohio State 26.4 (3)
TURNOVER MARGIN: Penn State +10 (2), Ohio State +2 (T39)
RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: Penn State 81.82 (3), Ohio State 60.87 (69)
OPPONENT RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: Penn State 71.43 (T113), Ohio State 53.85 (45)
THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: Penn State 48.28 (20), Ohio State 44.0 (40)
OPPONENT THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: Penn State 26.5 (4), Ohio State 34.1 (T37)
SACK RATE: Penn State 14.02 (2), Ohio State 4.73 (104)
SACK RATE ALLOWED: Penn State 2.38 (9), Ohio State 4.76 (39)
#MISSED TACKLES: Penn State 52, Ohio State 48
SCORING OFFENSE: Penn State 44.3 (5), Ohio State 36.0 (21)
AVERAGE SCORING DEFENSE FACED (Points/Ranking): Penn State 27.1/72, Ohio State 24.3/62
SCORING DEFENSE: Penn State 8.0 (2), Ohio State 9.7 (3)
AVERAGE SCORING OFFENSE FACED (Points/Ranking): Penn State 22.9/102, Ohio State 28.2/69
*STATS TAKEN FROM BCFTOYS.COM
# STATS TAKEN FROM PRO FOOTBALL FOCUS
WHAT WILL HAPPEN
This one is going to be a phone-booth game, with both teams showing an ability to stifle the other on offense. Both squads play exceptional team defense, and neither will do a whole lot that’s considered fancy. Penn State will bring heat, the Buckeyes will keep explosive plays almost non-existent. And that could be a real issue for the Nittany Lions.
As good as Penn State’s defense is, it may not be able to account for all of Ohio State’s playmakers. What will it do about Harrison Jr? No one can single cover him, so do they delegate a safety to always help? Do they bring in extra players on the back end to account for the Buckeyes empty sets? And will that open things up for Ohio State’s run game, which at times last week began to hum? Look for Day to be aggressive early, and if it works to keep his foot on the gas. If it doesn’t work, he may just be prepared to play a slugfest – which worked against Notre Dame, a team with more weapons on offense than Penn State has.
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| Nicholas Singleton |
While some will want to paint this as a matchup of Allar vs McCord, what it really is is Penn State’s suffocating defense against Ohio State’s playmakers. Which will better be able to exert their will, and make enough plays to win the game?
History in this series is foreboding for Penn State, though it is just history. Just because something hasn’t happened doesn’t mean it can’t. This appears to be Franklin’s most loaded team, and it really seems to have bought into the belief that it can win the Big Ten.
Still, you wonder if Ohio State being more tested, facing better offenses and defenses, will help the Buckeyes in tough situations. Penn State has the numbers, sure, and is playing very well. Allar wasn’t great in his first two road trips, and this one will be the most hostile environment he’s seen this season.
When setting out to make this pick, I wanted to take emotion out of it and examine the data. And Penn State has an edge in a lot of important categories, though not substantially. But it occurred to me that Ohio State has two very important advantages – facing adversity against a physical Notre Dame squad, which is philosophically a lot like Penn State -- and Marvin Harrison Jr. The former should serve OSU well if things are close, while the latter will, simply put, be the best player on the field. And in the end, that will be enough.
Day will exorcise the “big game” demons (at least until they return in late November) and Ohio State will show that it isn’t quite ready to cede its position as a national championship contender. The Buckeyes make a few more stops than the Nittany Lions and leave the Horseshoe as winners.
OHIO STATE 21, PENN STATE 16
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