This isn't exactly where we thought we would be, but the moment has nonetheless arrived -- tonight is when a new college football national champion will be crowned.
Most people said it was a foregone conclusion that Alabama would take on Clemson for the title, but a funny thing happened to the Tigers on the way to the coronation -- the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Discounted by fans and dismissed by Dabo Swinney, the Buckeyes rose up and put a whipping on the Tigers, winning the Sugar Bowl 49-28 in a contest that wasn't even that close. Ohio State was on a mission, and it was accomplished.
For the Tide is was business as usual as it wore down an overmatched Notre Dame squad 31-14 in the Rose Bowl. Alabama wasn't as sharp offensively as it has been for the bulk of the season but was never in danger of losing, and now stands on the doorstep of its third CFP crown since 2015.
These two teams breathe some of the rarest air in college football, but have met just four times previously. Alabama holds a 3-1 edge, but the Buckeyes won the last meeting, a memorable 42-35 upset in the first CFP in 2014-15. The last three meetings have all been decided by seven or fewer points, and this one has the makings of another down-to-the-wire thriller.
WHEN ALABAMA HAS THE BALL
Even with Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith (and possibly Jaylen Waddle) as a major weapon, the Tide is at its core a run-first team. Offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian likes to play a physical brand of football and maximizes what the team can get from the backfield.
That means a healthy dose of Najee Harris, who rambled for 1387 yards (6.06 YPC) and a nation's best 24 touchdowns as well as snagging 36 passes for another three scores. Running mate Brian Robinson added 400-plus yards and six more scores, making for a lethal combination that defenses must account for. Harris loves to get physical between the tackles, but is no slouch running outside -- 88 of his 230 totes have come to the edges, and he's shifty and decisive enough to break off a big play when he gets outside. Having OTs Alex Leatherwood and Evan Neal bludgeoning foes on a regular basis certainly doesn't hurt, and once they engulf their defender it's up to Harris to choose where he wants to take the ball.
Anyone thinking Smith will be ignored in favor of Harris hasn't watched the Crimson Tide this season. Smith is a precise route runner and is lethal in the open field after getting his hands on the football. If Waddle can play (and he has practiced in recent days) it will make Ohio State's task even tougher as now there will be two big-time weapons on the field together. John Metchie III has been the other threat in 2020, latching on to 47 passes and scoring six times. He actually has a higher YPC than Smith (17.7 to 15.6) and is a more physical player. Smith has been so good because of all of the pre-snap things Sarkisian does -- primarily motion, but also occasionally decoying Harris out in the flat.
As good as all of the above-mentioned players are, the offense starts with quarterback Mac Jones. The senior -- who some felt in the preseason wouldn't even be the starter -- has merely put together one of the best seasons in college football history, throwing for 4.036 yards and 36 touchdowns, to just four interceptions. Jones, who has completed 77 percent of his passes, doesn't often put the ball in harm's way, making safe passes that allow his playmakers to do things in space. He's equal opportunity in distribution, throwing six TDs of 20-plus yards to the left side of the field and four to the right. He's also been proficient down the hashes and allowed his receivers to make plays up the seam, and almost always puts the ball into an area where only his guy can get it. The loss of center Landon Dickerson is something to watch, as he was the leader of the offensive line group. Replacement Chris Owens is a senior, but a notch below Dickerson and a possibly vulnerable spot for OSU All-America DT Haskell Garrett to exploit.
The reason the Tide offense is so lethal is because of Sarkisian's love for play-action. Called "a quarterback's best friend" by Sark, the play-action is paramount when a defense is aggressively trying to stop the ground attack. With a weapon like Harris in the backfield, it's impossible for an opposing team to ignore him at the expense of Alabama's perimeter weapons. Play action also opens up throwing lanes down the field, and Jones has been proficient with the deep ball more often than not.
Alabama is lethal in the red zone -- scoring a nation's best 48 touchdowns in that area. The Crimson Tide score almost 92 percent of the time they venture inside the opposing 20, and Ohio State will need to do much better than usual (82 percent opponent scoring percentage) if it is to have a chance.
Ohio State must ensure that it's linebackers aren't lured in by the play action, leaving tons of open real estate for Alabama to operate. Don't be surprised if the Buckeyes play a bit more nickel than usual, putting much of the onus on LBs Pete Werner and Justin Hilliard. Both played very well against Clemson and will need to duplicate that effort against Alabama. OSU was victimized by the deep ball early in the season, but since ditching the single-high look it favored in 2019 those shots have been much less frequest. That said, this is no doubt the toughest assignment yet for Ohio State, which hasn't played a lot of zone on the back end but may need to in this contest.
WHEN OHIO STATE HAS THE BALL
The Buckeyes have really hit their stride in the latter part of the 2020 campaign, scoring at least 42 points in three of its last four contests. After a slog over Northwestern in the Big Ten title game, the Buckeyes rebounded in strong fashion and put up 49 points against a Clemson defense that was best in the nation on an efficiency basis. OSU receivers were consistently open against the Tigers aggressive, gambling stop unit, and running back Trey Sermon continued his heroics with 193 yards and a touchdown.
Sermon has had an impressive 2014 Ezekiel Elliott-esque run, combining for 636 yards and four touchdowns in Ohio State's last three contests. His patience to the line and explosiveness through it have been huge factors in the success of the Buckeyes offense, and he will no doubt be leaned upon heavily against an Alabama squad that is sticky in coverage on the outside. Clemson tried to slant its defensive line, but it was to no avail as Sermon went play side before putting his foot down and cutting backside into a ton of green. When defenses have the right fit and personnel on the field, Ryan Day counters by changing his formations. He'll detach the tight end in a 3x1 set, or put all four receivers to one side with Sermon lined up behind quarterback Justin Fields in a true pistol set. This provides a bunch of options at the snap, it's just up to Fields to make the proper read.
Speaking of Fields, his ability to run the ball, especially in the red zone, gives opposing defenses another thing to worry about. We know Fields has the arm talent to make defenses pay for being too locked in on the run, but he was sneaky good in the game against Clemson, picking up 42 yards on eight totes and keeping passing plays alive longer with his ability to dance his way out of trouble. Fields was lethal as a passer against the Tigers, completing nearly 80 percent of his passes and throwing a career-best six touchdowns. Much of that was done in the second half after suffering what looked to be a game-ending rib injury late in the first half.
It certainly helps Fields to have weapons such as Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson at his disposal. The pair have combined for 82 catches and 12 touchdowns, and both are versatile enough to do damage in space or on deep routes. In Patrick Surtain and Malachi Moore they will be facing the best combo of corners they've seen this season, but Day is a master at finding ways to get his guys open. Look for Wilson especially to be targeted short and allowed to use his physical frame to pick up yards after the catch. Olave has taken the top off of defenses from the outside, but he's also lethal on shallow crosses, where he can use his speed and elusiveness to pick up big chunks of yardage. A new wrinkle was seen in the win over Clemson -- using the tight ends in the red zone. Ohio State has recruited a bunch of talented tight ends in the last few cycles, but have used them as little more than extra blockers. That changed against Clemson as Fields tossed three red zone scores to tight ends Luke Farrell and Jeremy Ruckert. Fields ability to get outside the pocket causes headaches for a defense, which has to decide whether it will stay in coverage or commit a defender to the quarterback. Against Clemson Fields was able to get on the move and find the tight ends sliding back across the play for touchdowns. If Alabama commits too many resources to Olave and Wilson, the tight ends could once again play a big part in offensive success.
If the Buckeyes are to win they will have to be much better in the red zone than they have been in 2020. OSU is 100th in red zone scoring percentage this season, scoring touchdowns on 25 of their 39 red zone trips. The Buckeyes have shown versatility in the passing game in the red zone, creating scoring plays on shallow and go routes, quick outs to the backs and tight ends and Fields wheels inside the five yard line. He is especially dangerous when OSU goes to three-wide formations in 11 personnel. The running back is used as an extra blocker and Fields just has to pick the right hole.
Alabama is top 15 nationally on defense in red zone scoring percentage so Ohio State will need to be dialed in when the field gets short. The Tide has also turned up the pressure on the quarterback in recent weeks, netting 15 of its 35 sacks in the last three contests. Fields will need to make quick decisions if the Buckeyes are to keep the chains moving.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN
Even with the narrative that the College Football Playoff is tired, lacks transparency and features the same teams every year, enthusiasm is high for this contest.
Alabama and Ohio State are two of the most storied names in college football history, and each has won a College Football Playoff crown. Interestingly, the two have never played for all the marbles, so this should be a fascinating game.
Look for Alabama to come out smoking, using its variety of weapons and a good mix of run and pass to confuse the Buckeyes defense early. OSU will need to pick its poison -- Najee Harris or DeVonta Smith -- and hope that it can keep big plays to a minimum. One thing in OSU's favor is a defensive front that leads college football in pressure, so if it can affect Mac Jones -- easier said than done against Alabama's stellar trench brigade -- it has a real shot. Being able to rattle the so far unflappable Jones might be the best way for Ohio State to stay in the contest.
The Buckeyes have enough big-play weapons of their own to trade shots with the Tide, and an offensive line that has shifted to overdrive in the last month. The holes for Sermon have been mammoth, so Alabama will need to make sure its typically aggressive linebackers don't overpursue and leave the back side open for Sermon's lethal cutbacks. Otherwise he's gone. Fields running ability could be a real equalizer if OSU's receivers can't free themselves from Alabama's coverage on the back end.
Florida stayed within hailing distance of Alabama in the SEC title game thanks to quick passes to the edge and the occasional over the top throws, after the safeties had crept up to cover things underneath. The emergence of the tight ends in OSU's passing attack could definitely help here, as Olave has the speed to get behind Alabama's D and Wilson has the size to create things after the catch. Alabama allowed 408 yards to Kyle Trask, 379 to Ole Miss' Matt Corral and 335 to Texas A&M's Kellen Mond, and Fields is better than all three -- and has better weapons.
Ohio State has been shaky on third and long this season, so getting the Buckeyes behind the chains will be huge for the Tide defense.
On the flip side, it's hard to think that Ohio State's secondary -- average at best all season -- is suddently going to morph into a game-changing unit, especially against the best receiver it has faced all season in Smith. And if Waddle can play, that makes the Buckeyes chore even tougher.
Both teams should have the requisite motivation -- Alabama for not even making the playoffs last season and Ohio State for being overlooked and doubted for most of the 2020 campaign. The Buckeyes were jazzed for the Clemson game, and it's possible the tank will be empty after getting revenge on the Tigers for their 2019 CFP win over OSU.
The forecast here is for a nailbiter, with Ohio State leading at halftime behind the strong running of Sermon and a couple of uncharacteristic miscues by Jones. But Alabama has looked like the best team in college football for most of the season, and that doesn't change here.
A wild fourth quarter will result in fireworks in both sides, but the Tide gets it done with a final touchdown in the final three minutes of the game.
(1) ALABAMA 38, (3) OHIO STATE 34
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