Even though you know that people are going to pick them apart and tell you you're an idiot, making preseason predictions is one the more enjoyable things about the college football offseason. Trying to prove that you know more than that guy is fun, but more often than not those early picks are forgotten.
But not by me.
No, it's time for some accountability. A lot of publications simply put together their preseason lists and then you don't hear anything about them. I always enjoy looking back on my thoughts heading into a college football season, which is why I am here.
It doesn't take a genius to guess that Clemson and Ohio State and Alabama are almost certain slam-dunks into the College Football Playoff -- though yours truly had the Tide on the outside looking in, for some stupid reason. It's projecting that fourth (and occasionally third) team, the surprise that people don't always see coming. This year it was Florida and Oregon for me -- the Gators seemed like a good pick for awhile, while the Ducks never got off the ground thanks to the inept management of the Pac-12 brass.
My preseason picks are based on how I think things will look heading into the bowls and playoffs. So the final Associated Press poll has no bearing on things.
A rundown, then, of how I envisioned things shaking out for 2020. This is where I had teams picked in the preseason, with their final CFP rank included.
1 Clemson: It wasn't a stretch to think that an experienced team with the top returning quarterback and a defense that had the potential to be better than the 2019 version would be poised to enter the CFP in the top spot. But Trevor Lawrence missed a couple of games, and the defenses suffered crucial injuries that forced inexperienced guys into the mix. Still, not much difference between the top spot and where the Tigers finished. FINAL CFP RANK: 2
2 Ohio State: The Buckeyes rivaled the Tigers for returning talent, but the misguided handling of the season by the Big Ten administration conspired to prevent the Buckeyes from possibly showing their full capabilities. An internal bout with COVID forced cancellation of one game, and two others were cancelled due to opponents outbreaks. So Ohio State was never fully in a groove or able to hit its stride with all of the starts and stops. FINAL CFP RANK: 3
3 Florida: Sure, the Gators were a trendy (read that as hopeful) pick to make the playoff, and a hot start made it look like that just might happen. But in the end, a poor defense did Florida in, and it fell short in the SEC title game. FINAL CFP RANK: 7
4 Oregon: Like the Big Ten, the Pac-12 botched the season from the outset. Limited games, teams not being able to reach their potential, it was all there. The Ducks did win the league crown but weren't nearly as good as many expected. FINAL CFP RANK: 25
5 Alabama: It was probably silly to doubt a Nick Saban team -- especially one coming off a season in which it didn't make the CFP. There were legitimate questions about the quarterback play, and some concerns about the defense. In the end it didn't matter as the Tide rolled over everyone. FINAL CFP RANK: 1
6 Penn State: Things started poorly -- a last-second loss to Indiana -- and never got better. Injuries in the backfield conspired against the Nittany Lions to an extent, but this just didn't have much going for it. FINAL CFP RANK: NR
7 Oklahoma: The questions surrounding the Sooners were focused squarely on the defense and inexperience at quarterback. Both were answered -- though not immediately, as two early season setbacks put a dagger into OU and killed its chances. By the end of the year Oklahoma was as hot as any team. FINAL CFP RANK: 6
8 Georgia: An early malaise became a precision machine as the Bulldogs finally found some offensive footing once JT Daniels grabbed the starting quarterback reins. FINAL CFP RANK: 9
9 Notre Dame: The Irish exceeded expectations, which were based on lack of gamebreakers on the outside on offense and a concern about stopping teams on the perimeter in the passing game. ND was as physical as any team around and put together one of its best seasons under Brian Kelly. FINAL CFP RANK: 4
10 LSU: It was expected that the defending champs would take a step back -- well, by everyone except LSU fans -- but few new it would be this drastic. The Joes meant more to the team than most figured, and that was evident in an offense that stumbled through the bulk of 2020. Even the defense wasn't its usual fericious self. FINAL CFP RANK: NR
11 Oklahoma State: The Cowboys were the pride of the Big 12 for a good portion of the season, but ended up where they usually do -- as a good team that fell short of greatness. This year seemed to be the best for OSU to make a real move in the conference. FINAL CFP RANK: 21
12 Auburn: If there's one thing that should have been learned, it's don't go against what you know. And what we know is that Bo Nix can't throw well enough for Auburn's offense to really become dangerous. The defense wasn't bad, but against the best the Tigers lacked claws. FINAL CFP RANK: NR
13 Wisconsin: If the season could have ended for the Badgers after a stellar opening victory over Illinois things would be fine in Madison. But COVID issues and inconsistency upon returning to the field made this a pretty down year. FINAL CFP RANK: NR
14 Memphis: The Tigers had all kinds of firepower, and as such were viewed as the best New Years Six hope among Group of Five teams. Memphis wasn't bad, but may not have been as good as its 8-3 mark indicated as four victories were by a field goal or less. FINAL CFP RANK: NR
15 North Carolina: Only a blind man wouldn't have been able to see that the Tar Heels were going to have one of the most explosive offenses in college football. It's too bad the defense was pushed around so easily, otherwise there might have been something to really write home about. FINAL CFP RANK: 13
16 Minnesota: An 0-2 start doomed this bunch from the beginning, and the boat never was rid of the water it took in. This will be an interesting team to watch in 2021 as it has the feel of a bunch trending the wrong direction. FINAL CFP RANK: NR
17 USC: It was mystifying why people weren't giving USC much love in the preseason. The Trojans had one of the best and deepest rosters in the conference, and were ravaged by injuries in 2019. Staying healthy meant a potentially big season, but the defense wasn't good enough, allowing 27 or more points in four of six games. FINAL CFP RANK: 17
18 Michigan: College football was buzzing after the Wolverines opened 2020 with a convincing victory over Minnesota. People think UM was back, but didn't need the Gophers would be such a light touch. A demoralizing loss to rival Michigan State in week two took the air out of the Wolverines balloon, and they pretty much stopped trying from that point forward. FINAL CFP RANK: NR
19 California: This picked was based mostly on the experience the Bears had coming back. But COVID issues and poor play left Cal with just four games -- three that ended up as losses. FINAL CFP RANK: NR
20 Texas A&M: We weren't going to prop the Aggies until we saw something, and now we're sold. Kellen Mond has (mostly) developed into a quarterback who can win games, and the defense has talent and depth. The only real blemish was a blowout at the hands of the Alabama, which can be excused a bit. FINAL CFP RANK: 5
21 UCF: This was another one where recency bias played a part. The Knights have lost seven games in the last two seasons after dropping just one in the previous two. Lack of discipline and a defense that has faltered down the stretch played a big role in this season's lackluster 6-4 campaign. FINAL CFP RANK: NR
22 Boise State: The Broncos weren't bad, just not good enough to beat the best teams on the schedule. Blowout losses to BYU and San Jose State marred an otherwise solid season. We'll see how 2021 shapes up as a new coach takes over for Bryan Harsin, who moved on to Auburn. FINAL CFP RANK: NR
23 Iowa State: The Cyclones were approached with cautious optimism as they have had a history of disappointing under expectations. This bunch finally saw things through, and even though it lost twice to Oklahoma (by a combined nine points) this was one of the most well-rounded squads in college football. FINAL CFP RANK: 10
24 Virginia Tech: This was another crew that entered 2020 with expectations, and sat at 3-1 through mid-October. Then came injuries and opt-outs, and things went south in a hurry. The Hokies finished 5-6, winning just one of its last five -- though it was against rival Virginia, so that may salve the wound just a little bit. FINAL CFP RANK: NR
25 Appalachian State: There was always going to be a Sun Belt presence in the rankings, we just had the wrong team. The emergence of Coastal Carolina overshadowed what was a solid yet slightly disappointing nine-win campaign. FINAL CFP RANK: NR
As far as conference races are concerned, there were mixed results. Was solid on a number of Group of Five leagues and a couple of Power Fives, but also missed wildly on some. Teams listed in order of finish, with projected preseason finish in parentheses
ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE
Picks were made prior to the league deciding to scrap divisions and just make it a free for all -- and before Notre Dame was given a one-year membership. Clemson was an easy choice as top dog, but did expect Louisville and Florida State to be a lot better than they were.
1 Notre Dame (no pick)
2 Clemson (1A)
3 Miami (T3C)
4 North Carolina (1C)
4 North Carolina State (5A)
6 Boston College (7A)
6 Pittsburgh (T3C)
6 Virginia Tech (2C)
9 Virginia (T3C)
10 Wake Forest (T3A)
11 Georgia Tech (6C)
12 Louisville (T3A)
13 Florida State (2A)
14 Duke (7C)
14 Syracuse (6A)
BIG TEN
Ohio State was the easy choice in the East, while a battle in the West was forecast between Wisconsin and Minnesota. That, of course, never materialized. Funny thing is, I actually called for Indiana and Northwestern to be vastly improved on the College Football Impact radio preview that we did for the conference. I cited Indiana's explosiveness on offense and Northwestern's experience. Once the schedules were adjusted it was easy to see that those two teams had a really good shot at big seasons.
EAST
1 Ohio State (1)
2 Indiana (4)
3 Penn State (2)
4 Maryland (6)
5 Rutgers (7)
6 Michigan (3)
7 Michigan State (5)
WEST
1 Northwestern (T6)
2 Iowa (3)
3 Wisconsin (1)
4 Minnesota (2)
5 Nebraska (4)
6 Purdue (5)
7 Illinois (T6)
BIG 12
There was little doubt that Oklahoma would be the class of the conference, but the bigger mystery was which team would be the opponent in the league title game. Oklahoma State, Iowa State and Texas were all ready to stake a claim, and in the end it was the Cyclones that ultimately won the honor of playing for the crown.
1 Iowa State (T3)
2 Oklahoma (T1)
3 Oklahoma State (T1)
4 Texas (T3)
5 TCU (5)
6 West Virginia (8)
7 Kansas State (T6)
8 Texas Tech (9)
9 Baylor (T6)
10 Kansas (10)
PAC-12
Given the cancellations and postponements and late starts, it's a wonder the Pac-12 got through the season. Oregon wasn't nearly as strong as forecast, yet still managed to play in the league title game after Washington had to bow out. USC was the prohibitive choice in the South and came through in fine fashion.
NORTH
1 Washington (T2)
2 Oregon (1)
3 Stanford (4)
4 Oregon State (5)
5 California (T2)
5 Washington State (6)
SOUTH
1 USC (1)
2 Colorado (6)
3 Utah (T2)
4 Arizona State (T2)
5 UCLA (4)
6 Arizona (5)
SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
There was a slight changing of the guard, at least in the East, as Florida finally broke Georgia's stranglehold on the top spot. The West was business as usual, with Alabama and everyone else, though defending national champ LSU took a bigger step back than expected.
EAST
1 Florida (1)
2 Georgia (2)
3 Missouri (6)
4 Kentucky (T3)
5 Tennessee (T3)
6 South Carolina (5)
7 Vanderbilt (7)
WEST
1 Alabama (1)
2 Texas A&M (4)
3 Auburn (T2)
4 LSU (T2)
5 Ole Miss (6)
6 Arkansas (7)
6 Mississippi State (5)
AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
This was the other conference that scrapped divisions in favor of a free-for-all -- and can I say, that's a great idea going forward, for all conferences. It ensures that the two best teams will face off for the league crown, and that's what we want, after all. Right? We thought Cincinnati would be good, though not as good as it was, and felt Memphis would be better than it turned out to be. And we really whiffed on league runner-up Tulsa.
1 Cincinnati (3)
1 Tulsa (11)
3 Memphis (T1)
3 UCF (T1)
5 SMU (T6)
6 Houston (T5)
7 Navy (T5)
8 Tulane (4)
8 East Carolina (T9)
10 Temple (T7)
11 South Florida (T9)
CONFERENCE USA
Things were pretty formful here, as the only real misses were taking Southern Miss to finish second in the West and UTSA to take fifth. Otherwise, this was a pretty good forecast.
EAST
1 Marshall (T1)
2 Florida Atlantic (T1)
3 Western Kentucky (T3)
4 Charlotte (T3)
5 Middle Tennessee (5)
6 Florida International (6)
NOTE: Old Dominion selected seventh, did not play
WEST
1 UAB (1)
2 UTSA (5)
3 Louisiana Tech (3)
4 North Texas (4)
5 Rice (6)
6 Southern Miss (2)
7 UTEP (7)
MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE
Another league that was fairly easy to project, there were no true whiffs here. Ball State was better than expected, though we did have the Cardinals at least in the hunt for a division crown.
EAST
1 Buffalo (1)
2 Kent State (T2)
3 Miami Ohio (4)
3 Ohio (T2)
5 Akron (6)
6 Bowling Green (5)
WEST
1 Ball State (3)
2 Western Michigan (2)
2 Toledo (1)
4 Central Michigan (4)
5 Eastern Michigan (6)
6 Northern Illinois (5)
MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE
Like the ACC and American, the MWC eliminated divisions and made it a race to the finish line. We had one title game participant in Boise State, but missed on the other -- San Jose State -- as we felt the Aztecs offense would be something of a liability.
1 San Jose State (T4W)
2 Boise State (1E)
3 Nevada (3W)
4 San Diego State (1W)
5 Hawai'i (2W)
6 Fresno State (T4W)
7 Air Force (T2E)
8 Wyoming (T2E)
9 New Mexico (6E)
10 Colorado State (5E)
11 Utah State (4E)
12 UNLV (6W)
SUN BELT CONFERENCE
The emergence of Coastal Carolina to the very brink of unbeaten season was a major storyline for the 2020 season, and kept the Sun Belt in the water cooler talk all year. Throw in Louisiana's opening victory over Iowa State and some of the standout performers in the league and it was a great campaign for is quickly turning out to be the second best G5 conference.
EAST
1 Coastal Carolina (T3)
2 Appalachian State (1)
3 Georgia State (5)
3 Georgia Southern (T3)
5 Troy (T3)
WEST
1 Louisiana (1)
2 South Alabama (5)
3 Texas State (T3)
3 Arkansas State (2)
5 Louisiana-Monroe (T3)
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