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| Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa (AL.com) |
The Tide has circled the wagons in preparation for 2019, and you can bet that a retinkered coaching staff means a rejuvenated Nick Saban. And when Saban is rejuvenated and the hunter rather than the hunted, Alabama is as dangerous as they come. There is talent galore on both sides of the ball, and you can bet that the 18.9 ppg allowed (highest total since 2014) was a number that Saban will fix. Stars Dylan Moses and Xavier McKinney pace a unit that amassed 45 sacks and was +6 in turnovers, so foes will find the going to be tough. Offensively, the nation's top receving corps -- led by Jerry Jeudy -- has one of the best in the nation tossing the pig in Tua Tagovailoa, and if a retooled offensive line plays up to expectation it could be a juggernaut. Bama should be favored in road games against Texas A&M, Mississippi State and Auburn, and hosts what could be the premier contest of the SEC season Nov. 9 against LSU.
Speaking of the Tigers, they got back on track with their most potent offense since 2014, thanks in large part to Ohio State transfer QB Joe Burrow. Back for another season, Burrow has moxie but needs to improve his accuracy (58 percent) if LSU is to knock Alabama from its perch. He'll have a mostly intact line and a cadre of receivers at his disposal, so the offense could be a bit more explosive. Dave Aranda has another top flight defense, even after losing Devin White and Greedy Williams to the NFL. It's next man up in Baton Rouge, and those would be Jacob Phillips at LB and Kristian Fulton at one corner spot. Both could become stars this year, though safety Grant Delpit is already at that level. LSU thrived without generating a fierce pass rush (34 sacks), and was proficient at forcing turnovers (+12). A week two showdown at Texas could set the tone for the season, which also includes trips to Mississippi State and Alabama. The Tigers host Florida and Texas A&M and with a few breaks could be right in the mix for a division crown.
Year one under Joe Moorhead didn't go quite as expected for Mississippi State, and with the heart of the defense off to the NFL you have to wonder if the Bulldogs can take a step forward. Only four are back on the stop side, though the LB tandem of Erroll Thompson and Willie Gay is one of the best in the league. Cam Dantzler is a legit AA candidate at corner, but it's tough to envision MSU being as good getting to the QB (39 sacks) as it was last year. Penn State transfer Tommy Stevens comes in to run the offense, and his passing ability is an upgrade over Nick Fitzgerald's. Kylin Hill is one of the better backs in the league, and the receiver corps is underrated. If the O-line holds up this offense could look more like Moorhead envisioned, though road trips to Auburn and Texas A&M will be tricky. MSU gets Alabama and LSU at home, however.
The talent level at Texas A&M has improved in Jimbo Fisher's short time, but this year could be a case of the record not showing it as the schedule is flat out brutal. A trip to Clemson in week two is followed by home tilts with Auburn, Alabama and Mississippi State, and the season ends with road trips to Georgia and LSU. If the Aggies equal last year's nine-win mark Fisher should be coach of the year. The offense should be good with Kellen Mond at the controls, and the O-line and receivers have talent and experience. The defense could be iffy, though, as there is talent -- but much of it is green. The secondary should be a strength, and young guys in the front seven are quick and aggressive, so if that group play up to par it could surprise.
It was back to the drawing board for Auburn, which averaged just 22 ppg in league play before Gus Malzahn assumed playcalling duties in the bowl game -- and the Tigers put up 63 points against Purdue. Who he gets to run the show is a question, but it will be someone lacking experience. Look for more QB runs, whoever gets the job. They will have the luxury of performing behind of the best, most experienced lines in America, and with the specter of the QB run the ground game should improve. The defense returns seven from an excellent unit, notably AA DT Derrick Brown. An underrated secondary could cause problems. Opening the season against Oregon is no picnic, nor are trips to A&M, Florida or LSU. Ending the season with Georgia and Alabama isn't much better.
Two teams that are moving up but still a ways away from contending are Ole Miss and Arkansas. Both enter 2019 with new quarterbacks and rosters fairly low on experience, but improving in talent. The Rebels will lean more on the run game and Scottie Phillips now that the starting receiving group is all in the NFL. The defense was a sieve last year and has nowhere to go but up. An influx of JUCO talent on that side could make it a better group. The Razorbacks also were charitable on defense but were getting used to a new 4-3 scheme. A year older, the group -- led by LB De'Jon Harris -- should be better. There are a few playmakers on offense, notably RB Rakeem Boyd and TE Cheyenne O'Grady. SMU transfer Ben Hicks is an upgrade at QB and should make the Hogs competent on that side of the ball.
It's a two-team race in the East, with Georgia and Florida well ahead of the pack.
The Bulldogs are still the most talented team in the division, and have reliable QB Jake Fromm -- who isn't just a game manager -- back for another season. Georgia may lean more on D'Andre Swift and the run game since the receiving corps is new, but that's not a bad thing when the O-line is as good as this one. The defense regressed slightly from it's snarling 2017 level, but could have some teeth with more experience. The D-line especially should be better, with Jordan Davis ready to take off up front and JUCO transfer Jermaine Johnson making plays from his linebacker spot. The secondary lost its best player (D'Andre Walker) and lacks playmakers, but has depth and talent. That group will need to play better if Georgia is to make another run at the CFP. A home date with Notre Dame adds spice to the schedule, which also includes a trip to Auburn, a home date with A&M and the usual neutral site showdown with the Gators.
Florida was one of the most improved teams in the nation under Dan Mullen, jumping from four wins to 10, which included an upset of LSU and a bowl blowout over Michigan. Mullen transformed QB Feleipe Franks from a run-first, scattershot passer into a disciplined thrower (24-6 TD-INT ratio), though he does need to get a bit better with his accuracy (just a shade over 58 percent). A solid committee in the backfield and a deep, talented receiving corps should be potent, though could be minimized if a retooled offensive line misfires. The defense has eight back from a group that allowed just 20 ppg a year ago, and should be just as good. End Jabari Zuniga, linebackers David Reese and Trey Dean and secondary stars CJ Henderson and Brad Stewart give the Gators one of the most talented starting units in America. The Gators leave Florida just once in the first six weeks of the season, but must go to LSU and Missouri while entertaining Auburn and Florida State at home. And that doesn't even mention the Georgia game, which could determine the division title.
How will Missouri respond to a postseason ban? Good question. If the Tigers use an us against the world mentality they could be very good. But if they wonder what there really is to play for, it could spiral downhill quickly. A solid skill contingent is augemented by the transfer of Clemson QB Kelly Bryant, who will provide more of a running threat than Drew Lock, if not the downfield passing threat. The defense was underrated last year, and should be able to withstand the loss of Terez Hall at linebacker. JUCO transfer Sci Martin could be a revelation at one end spot, and Cale Garrett is a tackling machine at linebacker. The secondary is unheralded but sneaky good, led by DeMarkus Acy. Mizzou likely won't be challenged until late October when it ventures to Kentucky, and back to back games with Georgia and Florida will be difficult.
Can Kentucky do it again? It won't be easy with just 10 returnees, but Mark Stoops has changed the culture so anything is possible. The offensive line had a lot of turnover, and the backfield lost record setter Benny Snell Jr, but dynamic wideout Lynn Bowden Jr is back to terrorize defenses. If Terry Wilson plays better at quarterback -- just 11 TDs last season -- the Wildcats could surprise, and he will need to as he will be asked to throw more than he did a year ago. The defense was top-notch last year but lost rush terror Josh Allen to the NFL. LB Kash Daniel will take over the leader of the D, and he and the front seven will need to play well in front of a completely revamped secondary. The schedule is manageable, with only a road trip to Georgia qualifying as scary. Florida and Missouri come to Lexington.
We're not sure what South Carolina did to piss off the scheduling gods, but playing Alabama, Florida, A&M and Clemson would be a challenge for any squad. The Gamecocks have seven back on both sides of the ball, and the offense could be the best in Columbia in some time with a solid receiving corps and an improved Jake Bentley. The defense stumbled last season and may have a tough time getting back to an elite level. If it happens it will come from outstanding linebacker play and more success getting to the quarterback (26 sacks in 2018). This is a grizzled bunch, so bettering last year's seven wins would not be a complete shock. Still, it's going to be an uphill climb.
Tennessee is improving its talent level, and is one of the more experienced teams in the country with 16 starters back, including 10 on offense. Jarrett Guarantano was solid at quarterback in 2018 and could take a step forward with a dynamic group of receivers as targets. The O-line will start two freshmen and a sophomore, but could be a team strength. The defense wasn't great but should improve behind an experienced back seven. LBs Darrell Taylor and Daniel Bituli should provide leadership, and both are fast and active. The schedule is unforgiving, with trips to Florida and Alabama and home games with BYU, Georgia and Mississippi State.
Do not sleep on Vanderbilt, while could have its best offense in years thanks to a pair of transfers and the reeturn of the SEC's best running back. The Commodores got Riley Neal from Ball State to run the offense, and Harvard transfer Justice Shelton-Mosley is a big play type who can stretch defenses out wide. Ke'Shawn Vaughn averaged nearly eight yards per tote last year and scored 12 TDs against defenses geared to stop the run. Look for more of the same this year. Kalija Lipscomb and Jared Pinkney are holdovers who should also be a big part of the passing attack. The was solid but could regress after losing five of its top seven tacklers. Illinois grad transfer Cam Watkins should be good at one corner spot, and linebacker Dmitri Moore played well but didn't garner many headlines. That could change. If Vanderbilt is still standing after a schedule that opens with Georgia, Purdue and LSU, it could be in the running for a second straight bowl bid. A trip to Florida won't be fun, but the Commodores miss Alabama, A&M and Mississippi State.
SEC PREDICTIONS
EAST
1 Georgia (10-3, 6-2)*R
1 Florida (10-2, 6-2)*R
3 Missouri (8-4, 4-4)*R
4 Kentucky (7-5, 3-5)*
4 South Carolina (6-6, 3-5)*
4 Tennessee (6-6, 3-5)*
7 Vanderbilt (5-7, 2-7)
WEST
1 Alabama (13-0, 8-0)*R
2 LSU (9-3, 6-2)*R
3 Texas A&M (8-4, 5-3)*R
4 Mississippi State (8-4, 4-4)*R
4 Auburn (7-5, 4-4)
6 Arkansas (5-7, 1-7)
6 Ole Miss (3-9, 1-7)
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Alabama over Georgia
* Bowl participant
R CFB Focus Top 40 team
ALL-SEC
FIRST TEAM OFFENSE
QB Tua Tagovailoa/Alabama
RB Ke'Shawn Vaughn/Vanderbilt
RB D'Andre Swift/Georgia
WR Jerry Jeudy/Alabama
WR Bryan Edwards/South Carolina
WR Kalija Lipscomb/Vanderbilt
TE Albert Okwuegbunam/Missouri
OT Andrew Thomas/Georgia
OT Prince Tega Wanogho/Auburn
OG Logan Stenberg/Kentucky
OG Jahmir Johnson/Tennessee
C Lloyd Cushenberry III/LSU
FIRST TEAM DEFENSE
DE Raekwon Davis/Alabama
DE Jabari Zuniga/Florida
DT Derrick Brown/Auburn
DT Tyler Clark/Georgia
LB Dylan Moses/Alabama
LB De'Jon Harris/Arkansas
LB Erroll Thompson/Mississippi State
CB CJ Henderson/Florida
CB Cameron Dantzler/Mississippi State
S Grant Delpit/LSU
S JR Reed/Georgia
FIRST TEAM SPECIALISTS
K Rodrigo Blankenship/Georgia
P Braden Mann/Texas A&M
RS Jaylen Waddle/Alabama
SECOND TEAM OFFENSE
QB Jake Fromm/Georgia
RB Najee Harris/Alabama
RB Kylin Hill/Mississippi State
WR Henry Ruggs Jr/Alabama
WR Van Jefferson/Florida
WR Justin Jefferson/LSU
TE Jared Pinkney/Vanderbilt
OT Alex Leatherwood/Alabama
OT Isaiah Wilson/Georgia
OG Tre'Vour Wallace-Sims/Missouri
OG Mike Horton/Auburn
C Darryl Williams/Mississippi State
SECOND TEAM DEFENSE
DE Nick Coe/Auburn
DE Rashard Lawrence/LSU
DT McTelvin Agim/Arkansas
DT Justin Madubuike/Texas A&M
LB David Reese/Florida
LB Cale Garrett/Missouri
LB Jacob Phillips/LSU
CB Kristian Fulton/LSU
CB Patrick Surtain II/Alabama
S Xavier McKinney/Alabama
S Daniel Thomas/Auburn
SECOND TEAM SPECIALISTS
K Connor Limpert/Arkansas
P Tommy Townsend/Florida
RS Lynn Bowden Jr/Kentucky
OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Tua Tagovailoa
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Grant Delpit
COACH OF THE YEAR: Nick Saban/Alabama
TOP NEWCOMER: CB Derek Stingley/LSU
TOP FIVE GAMES (NONCONFERENCE)
Florida vs Miami (Orlando) (Aug. 24)
Auburn vs Oregon (Arlington, Texas) (Aug. 31)
LSU at Texas (Sept. 7)
Texas A&M at Clemson (Sept. 7)
Notre Dame at Georgia (Sept. 21)
TOP FIVE GAMES (CONFERENCE)
Alabama at Texas A&M (Oct. 18)
Florida at LSU (Oct. 12)
Florida vs Georgia (Jacksonville) (Nov. 2)
LSU at Alabama (Nov. 9)
Texas A&M at Georgia (Nov. 23)
TOP FIVE INCOMING FRESHMEN
CB Derek Stingley/LSU
DT Zacch Pickens/South Carolina
OT Wanya Morris/Tennessee
LB Nolan Smith/Georgia
DT Adarious Jones/Texas A&M
TOP FIVE TRANSFERS
QB Tommy Stevens/Mississippi State (Penn State)
QB Kelly Bryant/Missouri (Clemson)
S Jamel Cook/South Carolina (USC)
WR Justice Shelton-Mosley/Vanderbilt (Harvard)
QB Ben Hicks/Arkansas (SMU)
TOP FIVE JUCO TRANSFERS
CB Elijah Blades/Texas A&M
WR JaVonta Payton/Mississippi State
LB Jermaine Johnson/Georgia
DE Sci Martin/Missouri
CB Brandin Echols/Kentucky
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