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| Curtis Weaver (Magic Valley) |
Boise State has become a "program," a team that fans respect and believe can stand up to the big boys. Since 2015 the Broncos have beaten Washington and Washington State in the regular season and Oregon in the postseason, so folks know what they're getting with Boise State. This year will be a little different as there is quite a bit of turnover, especially at the skill spots. Brett Rypien is gone (finally) and freshman Hank Bachmeier steps in. The highest rated QB recruit (#14 nationally) in school history, Bachmeier will have to find his feet quickly as Boise opens with Florida State and Marshall. The offensive line returns intact so he should have time to operate, and he has a deep receiving corps to work with, though no real standout. The defense was excellent last year, among the national leaders in sacks (12th) and opponents third down percentage (11th). Rush end Curtis Weaver is at times unblockable, and when he can't get to the quarterback a deep, talented secondary can erase any issues.
Air Force is coming off of consecutive 5-7 seasons, but there is optimism due to the fact that four of last year's losses were by one score -- including three of four points or less. The Falcons throw the ball more than the other two service academies, and have a quarterback in Donald Hammond who can make enough throws to keep defenses honest. The offensive line is veteran, and this year's offense should be one of the most prolific under Troy Calhoun. The defense cut their points allowed by over a touchdown by being nails against the run (3.5 ypc). Safety Jeremy Fejeldelem did a little bit of everything, making 104 tackles and picking off three passes.
There is a lot of love for Utah State, and some of it is justified -- the defense should be outstanding. But it's hard to see how this bunch will contend with just two starters back on offense. One is QB Jordan Love (64%, 24-6), and he always gives you a chance. Gerold Bright was second fiddle in the rushing attack last year but scored 10 TDs and ran for over 800 yards, so he'll be good. But the receivers and O-line are basically brand new. The defense has some real studs, notably LB David Woodward (134 tackles, 5 sacks, 7.5 TFL, 3 PBU, 2 INT). But LB Tipa Galeai, NG Christopher Unga and NB DJ Williams are all high-level players. The Aggies open at Wake Forest and later go to LSU, and must travel to San Diego State, Air Force and Fresno State. They get BYU and Boise State at home. A bowl is likely, but a return to the upper reaches of the league would be a surprise.
If Wyoming can navigate the first two-thirds of its schedule it could be in position for a return to the postseason after last years 6-6 campaign. The Cowboys finish at Boise State, at Utah State, home with Colorado State and at Air Force, so they'll need to build up some capital. They should have enough firepower on offense to make teams sweat a bit more than last year (20.7 ppg), with WR Austin Conway (32 catches) in line for a big season. Getting RB Trey Smith from Louisville should give a big boost to the ground game. LB Logan Wilson anchors a hard-hitting defense, and he'll look to go out with a bang after amassing 103 tackles and 9 TFL in 2018.
This is a crucial year for Mike Bobo at Colorado State, on the heels of a 3-9 campaign thanks largely to defensive deficiencies. That group allowed 36.8 ppg and caused very little trouble for quarterbacks (15 sacks). Grad transfers Jalen Bates (Arizona State) and Tron Folsom (Troy) should help bring the numbers down a bit, but much of the back seven is low on experience. Auburn transfer Nate Craig-Myers highlights a receiving group that's solid but needs to take the next step. Warren Jackson could be a breakout performer outside with his great size (6-5,220) and physical play. San Diego State, Air Force and Boise State all come to Fort Collins, where the Rams will be looking to return to competitiveness.
You have to wonder how much longer they will put up with Bob Davie at New Mexico. Back to back 3-9 seasons don't sit too well with admins who expect more, and with just 10 players back bettering that record could be a chore. The offense returns eight starters, though no rusher had over 300 yards, and only two returning receivers broke that mark in 2018. The offensive line is experienced but allowed 27 sacks last year. A slew of injuries affected the defense, which led to 36.2 ppg allowed. An infusion of JUCO transfers could help on that side of the ball, most notably DL Joey Noble and LB James Lewis, both of whom were among the top 200 JUCOs available. Trips to Notre Dame -- Davie's former employer -- and Boise State will be tough, but the schedule is mostly manageable.
It looks like a two-team race in the West, with San Diego State holding the edge over last year's champ Fresno State.
The Aztecs have 12 returnees, including a healthy Juwan Washington at running back. He missed a portion of the season with a collarbone injury and the ground game suffered. His return means SDSU can go back to the physical style it prefers, and should mean a boost from last year's 20.8 ppg. The defense should be nasty once again, thanks to the presence of LB Kyahva Tezino (127 tackles, 8.5 sacks, 6 TFL, 17 QB hurries) and safety Tariq Thompso (60 tackles, 8 PBU). San Diego State gets Fresno at home, which is key as the Aztecs are 27-7 as a host the last five years.
The Bulldogs were two touchdowns away from an unbeaten season, losing by seven to Minnesota and Boise State, before knocking off the Broncos in the MWC title game. Only three return on offense, which was prolific in 2018 (34.6 ppg). One is RB Ronnie Rivers, who averaged nearly six yards per carry and found the end zone 10 times. If Fresno can get any kind of quarterback play from Jorge Reyna, who coaches say processes information quickly, then the offense should be good. The defense allowed just 14.1 ppg last year and could duplicate that thanks to a stellar secondary and active LB Mykal Walker (87 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 9.5 TFL). Fresno opens at USC then hosts Minnesota, but misses Boise State. It does go to San Diego State in mid-November, most likely with the division title on the line.
Jay Norvell worked some miracles last year getting Nevada to a bowl game and 8 wins a year after changing the culture -- seeing players leave in the process -- and winning just three games. He is definitely the man in charge, which is a good thing as the Wolf Pack returns just 11 players. Fortunately, most are skill position players, including RB Toa Taua, who dazzled as a freshman (872 yards, 6 TD) and WR Kaleb Fossum (70 catches). Whoever wins the QB job --and JUCO transfer and "Last Chance U" star Malik Henry seems to have the inside track -- will have talent to work with. The defense, led by LB Gabe Sewell (92 tackles), should be good out of its 3-3-5 scheme, which utilizes speed and aggressiveness. Nevada opens with Purdue and Oregon, so it could be climbing out of a hole as league play starts. Trips to San Diego State and Fresno State in November will make it tough to contend, but this should at least be a bowl team.
Expectations are high at Hawaii, which won the most games (8) since the 2010 squad went 10-4. Nick Rolovich has one of the most fun offenses around, and QB Cole McDonald (59%, 36-10) is back to once again wreak havoc on opposing defenses. Cedric Byrd (79 catches, 9 TD) and JoJo Ward (51, 9) will be the primary weapons, but not the only ones in the Warriors pass-happy attack. The defense gave up fewer yards than in 2017, but more points (35.1), and that will have to change if it wants to return to a bowl game. LB Solomon Matautia (92 tackle, 4 PBU) is active and can hit, and NG Blessman Ta'ala takes up space inside with his 310-pound frame, allowing the LBs and safeties to run to the football. Corner Rojesterman Farris is a sticky cover man (11 PBU). Hawaii opened 6-1 last year, but won't do so in 2019 with a schedule that opens with Arizona, Oregon State and Washington. There is also a visit from Army the last day of November, a game that could determine Hawaii's postseason fate.
San Jose State hopes that an influx of JUCO talent helps bring about some victories, since there was only one last year. The Spartans did have three losses by a touchdown or less, which signals improvement, but that rings hollow at the end of the day. The offense (21.6 ppg) and defense (36.6 allowed) both need to improve, and it will all start up front. Four members of an offensive line that gave up 39 sacks return in 2019, so the pressure is on. QB Josh Love (56.1, 14-9) did well considering what he had to work with, and as a senior he'll want to go out with a bang. LB Ethan Aguayo (106 tackles, 4 TFL, 5 PBU) is a standout, bu there aren't enough like him to go around. San Jose State faced 955 plays last year and allowed over 200 plays of 10-plus yards. Simply unacceptable. The added experience and an easier schedule means the Spartans should at least double last year's win total.
You have to believe that the Tony Sanchez experiment at UNLV is just about over. Sanchez, a wildly successful high school in the Las Vegas area, was hired to turn around the fortunes of the struggling Rebels football program. Going into his fifth season, one would have to say it's been pretty much a disaster. UNLV has yet to win more than five games in a season under Sanchez, and you know he's feeling the heat because he hit the JUCOs hard, inking eight prospects. The offense is actually decent, as long as QB Armani Rogers is healthy. He hasn't progressed much as a thrower, but is dynamic with the ball in his hands (6.1 YPC, 8 TDs). USC transfer Randal Grimes should help the receiving corps and the offensive line returns largely intact. The defense allowed 37.3 ppg last year and lacked speed, and needs to get to the quarterback more often (21 sacks). LB Javin White neted 74 tackles and 4.5 TFL in 2018 and rush end Gabe McCoy added 9.5 TFL. UNLV goes to Northwestern early and faces all of the MWC heavy hitters -- Boise State, Fresno State and San Diego State. If Sanchez is standing at the end of the season then expectations were exceeded.
MOUNTAIN WEST PREDICTIONS
MOUNTAIN
1 Boise State (10-3, 7-1)*R
2 Air Force (8-4, 6-2)*
3 Utah State (6-6, 5-3)*
4 Wyoming (7-5, 4-4)*
5 Colorado State (3-9, 2-6)
6 New Mexico (3-9, 1-7)
WEST
1 San Diego State (9-4, 7-1)*
2 Fresno State (8-4, 6-2)*
3 Nevada (6-6, 4-4)
4 Hawaii (4-8, 3-5)
5 San Jose State (3-9, 2-6)
6 UNLV (2-10, 1-7)
* Bowl participant
R CFB Focus Top 40 team
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Boise State over San Diego State
ALL-MWC
FIRST TEAM OFFENSE
QB Jordan Love/Utah State
RB Toa Taua/Nevada
RB Juwan Washington/San Diego State
WR Cedric Byrd/Hawaii
WR John Hightower/Boise State
WR Warren Jackson/Colorado State
TE Jared Rice/Fresno State
OT Ezra Cleveland/Boise State
OT Jake Nelson/Nevada
OG John Molchon/Boise State
OG Daishawn Dixon/San Diego State
C Keith Ismael/San Diego State
FIRST TEAM DEFENSE
DE Curtis Weaver/Boise State
DE Emmanuel Jones/Colorado State
DT David Moa/Boise State
DT Christopher Unga/Utah State
LB David Woodward/Utah State
LB Logan Wilson/Wyoming
LB Kyahva Tezino/San Diego State
CB DJ Williams/Utah State
CB Jaron Bryant/Fresno State
S Juju Hughes/Fresno State
S Kekoa Nawahine/Boise State
FIRST TEAM SPECIALISTS
K Dominic Eberle/Utah State
P Ryan Stonehouse/Colorado State
RS Savon Scarver/Utah State
SECOND TEAM OFFENSE
QB Cole McDonald/Hawaii
RB Ronnie Rivers/Fresno State
RB Gerold Bright/Utah State
WR Kaleb Fossum/Nevada
WR Jojo Ward/Hawaii
WR Nate Craig-Myers/Colorado State
TE Parker Houston/San Diego State
OT Teton Saltes/New Mexico
OT Netane Muti/Fresno State
OG Solo Vaipulu/Hawaii
OG Eric Quevedo/Boise State
C Keegan Crider/Wyoming
SECOND TEAM DEFENSE
DE Gabe McCoy/UNLV
DE Kaimana Padello/Hawaii
DT Aaron Blackwell/New Mexico
DT Devin Phillips/Colorado State
LB Tipa Galeai/Utah State
LB Mykal Walker/Fresno State
LB Ethan Aguayo/San Jose State
CB Rojesterman Farris/Hawaii
CB Avery Williams/Boise State
S Tariq Thompson/San Diego State
S Jamal Hicks/Colorado State
SECOND TEAM SPECIALISTS
K Cooper Rothe/Wyoming
P Blake Cusick/Fresno State
RS Austin Conway/Wyoming
TOP FIVE GAMES (NONCONFERENCE)
Florida State vs Boise State (Jacksonville, Aug 31)
Fresno State at USC (Aug 31)
San Diego State at UCLA (Sept 7)
Utah State at LSU (Oct 5)
Boise State at BYU (Oct 19)
TOP FIVE GAMES (CONFERENCE)
Utah State at San Diego State (Sept 21)
Air Force at Boise State (Sept 21)
Fresno State at Air Force (Oct 12)
Fresno State at San Diego State (Nov 15)
Boise State at Utah State (Nov 23)
TOP FIVE INCOMING FRESHMEN
QB Hank Bachmeier/Boise State
OG Joey Capra/San Diego State
CB Eric Cuffee/New Mexico
ATH Khaleb Hood/Air Force
WR Dante Wright/Colorado State
TOP FIVE TRANSFERS
RB Trey Smith/Wyoming (Louisville)
WR Nate Craig-Myers/Colorado State (Auburn)
OT Quinn Oseland/San Jose State (Minnesota)
LB Tron Folsom/Colorado State (Troy)
WR Siaosi Mariner/Utah State (Utah)
TOP FIVE JUCO TRANSFERS
CB Cortez Davis/Hawaii
S Troy Lefeged/Utah State
WR Melquise Stovall/Hawaii
CB Andre Neal/Colorado State
TE Austin Griffin/Boise State
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