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| JT Barrett throws a pass in Ohio State's thrilling 39-38 victory over Penn State in 2017, the last time the teams hooked up in Columbus (Joe Maiorana/USAToday) |
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SPOTLIGHT GAME
(8) Penn State at (2) Ohio State: Supremacy in the Big Ten East is on the line, as is a potential spot in the College Football Playoff. Penn State started the season like a house afire, but it's gotten tougher of late with three of the last four games decided by a touchdown or less. Included is the lone loss of the season, on the road against Minnesota, a game in which the Nittany Lions secondary was exposed. Penn State is top-notch defensively, led by linebacker Micah Parsons, and will have to be if it is to slow down the Buckeyes juggernaut. OSU leads the nation in scoring margin (over 40 points per game) and is top five in both offense and defense. Justin Fields and crew will have to work a bit harder for points against Penn State, but the real challenge for the Nittany Lions will come on offense. OSU has a lethal pass rush -- which gets Chase Young back -- and corners who can lock down receivers, so it may be up to emerging tight end Pat Freiermuth to make some big plays. If he is kept under control then it's likely going to be a long day for the visitors, who may have trouble scoring. OSU has won six of the last seven, including the last three at home. The last three contests have been decided by five total points, and twice in the last three games the number two team has gone down to defeat.
RANKED AND FILE
Arkansas at (1) LSU: A longstanding rivalry game, this one is played for the Golden Boot -- and it's the Tigers who will do most of the kicking. The Razorbacks fired coach Chad Morris so it's hard to know what we'll get on Saturday. We do know that it won't be good enough to knock off LSU, which is on a collision course with Georgia for the SEC Championship. Joe Burrow has the Heisman tucked safely in his back pocket, so the object here is to get out of the game without an injury, and maybe to give confidence to a defense that has been very little like LSU editions of the recent past. Arkansas running back Rakeem Boyd has eclipsed 1,000 yards on the season and is one of the few bright spots for the Hogs.
Texas A&M at (4) Georgia: At least the Bulldogs aren't scheduling a big check this weekend. The Aggies haven't been great this year, but have shown flashes of brilliance at times. There isn't enough firepower on offense to light up the scoreboard, especially against a Georgia D that's one of the best in the nation. Auburn's rushing touchdown last weekend was the first allowed this season by Georgia, and the Dawgs would love nothing better than to get up by a couple of touchdowns and smother the Aggies with their opportunistic, speed-laden stop unit.
Western Carolina at (5) Alabama: The Crimson Tide suffered a huge blow to their postseason hopes last weekend when Tua Tagovailoa suffered a season-ending hip injury against Mississippi State, so now Mac Jones takes over. He's been effective in spot play this season, but it really doesn't matter who is under center -- or in the backfield, or at receiver, or on defense -- because Alabama is playing FCS Western Carolina. In late November. Before the Iron Bowl.
(6) Oregon at Arizona State: Recent games have been barnburners, with Oregon taking a pair of two point victories and a six point overtime win since 2015. The Ducks know that if they win out they are likely in the College Football Playoff, and they are unbeaten in true road games this season. If not for the last second loss in the opener against Auburn Oregon would be even more highly thought of. Justin Herbert has gone 11-2 TD-INT in the last four games, completing over 70 percent of his passes. After a fast start ASU has dropped four in a row, including the last two by a total of six points. The Sun Devils are still looking to become bowl eligible so should be ready to go. The question is whether they can stop Herbert and Oregon's air attack -- ASU has allowed 19 touchdown passes and picked off just four in 2019.
(7) Utah at Arizona: The Wildcats have been respectable over the years against Utah but have dropped the last three by an average of 17 ppg. The Utes are still very much in the running for a berth in the College Football Playoff, which means a top effort here. Arizona is 111th in total defense, good news for a Utah team that ranks in the top 10 on offense (and defense). The Utes have held four of their last five foes to seven points or less, and could do the same to a less-than-potent UA attack.
TCU at (9) Oklahoma: The Horned Frogs have been known over the years for a swarming defense, but it hasn't impacted the Sooners much at all. Oklahoma has scored at least 30 points in each of the last five matchups, and has lost just once to TCU as Big 12 foes. You can bet the Sooners will want to jump out early after nearly falling against Baylor last week, and having Ceedee Lamb back at receiver will go a long way in making that happen. A win clinches a spot in the Big 12 title game for Oklahoma.
(10) Minnesota at Northwestern: The Gophers need to pick themselves up off the canvas and get back to their winning ways, and couldn't have picked a better foe than the offensively-challenged Wildcats. Northwestern has scored 10 points or fewer in six games this year, and have been near the bottom of most offensive stats all season. Minnesota could be without quarterback Tanner Morgan, who is in concussion protocol after taking a hit late in last weekend's Iowa game, but should have enough to nab a road victory. The Gophers need to win out to clinch a berth in the Big Ten title game.
Purdue at (12) Wisconsin: The Boilers have won three of their last five games -- against the league's lesser lights -- but are 0-3 against ranked foes this season. Purdue has been pretty bad stopping the run this season, which means Jonathan Taylor should have little trouble gaining the 20 yards he needs to pass Herschel Walker for the most yards amassed through a junior season. Wisconsin still has a path to the Big Ten West crown -- win out and it's theirs as next weekend's finale is against Minnesota.
(13) Michigan at Indiana: The Hoosiers are having one of the best seasons in recent memory, winning seven games for the first time since 2007, and
continue their quest for respect by hosting resurgent Michigan. Each of the last four meetings have been decided by 11 points or less, all going to the Wolverines. Indiana is 5-1 at home and has only one truly bad loss this season (51-10 to Ohio State in September). Indiana hasn't beaten a ranked opponent since 2016 and will have its hands full against a Michigan team that has scored at least 38 points in four of its last five contests. The defense has finally gotten back to Michigan standards, though you have to wonder whether there will be a little look ahead to next weekend's rivalry game with Ohio State
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Texas at (14) Baylor: As great as their story was, the Bears always seemed like they were living on borrowed time. Six of their nine wins were by one score, and three were by three points or fewer. Now we'll see if they can rebound from the gut punch of blowing a 25-point lead and losing to Oklahoma, and it won't be easy vs a Longhorns team against which they've lost four in a row. Texas has been something of a disappointment, alternating losses and wins dating back to the Oklahoma game. Whoever plays better between Sam Ehlinger and Charlie Brewer, their team most likely comes away with the victory.
Samford at (15) Auburn: Coming off a hard-fought loss to Georgia,
the Tigers should get healthy against FCS Samford. It's late November.
Before the Iron Bowl. But still, it just means more, right?
Boston College at (16) Notre Dame: The Irish have really put things together after the road beatdown against Michigan, averaging over 33 points per contest and limiting foes to just 13. Chase Claypool has burst onto the national scene at receiver, catching 20 passes with five TDs in the last three games. BC is 123rd in pass defense, which means he could have another big day. If the Eagles have any hope of slowing the Irish down it will be on the legs of AJ Dillon. The junior has seven 100-yard games this season and has been a workhorse for BC, averaging 27 carries per contest. BC has lost six straight in the series, though ND squeaked out a 16-14 win the last time the teams met in South Bend.
Illinois at (17) Iowa: The Hawkeyes ended Minnesota's unbeaten season last weekend, so could be a tad complacent against an Illini team that has been the second biggest surprise of the Big 10. Lovie Smith seems to be perpetually on the hot seat but has guided Illinois to six wins, including three road victories. Brandon Peters hasn't been terribly accurate under center, but has valued the football, which is big against an Iowa squad that has picked off a pass in four straight contests. Iowa has won five straight in the series and is 15 points from being unbeaten. You can bet Kirk Ferentz wants a strong finish as the Hawkeyes still have a mathematical shot at taking the West Division crown.
(18) Memphis at USF: Memphis would love to be a road warrior and come out of this one victorious, as it would keep the Tigers in the driver's seat for the G5 New Year's Six bid. The host has lost five of the last meetings, and Memphis has scored 42 or more points in four straight games. USF's defense has allowed 20 or less in three straight, but it's worth wondering whether the Bulls offense can generate enough points to steal this one.
Temple at (19) Cincinnati: The Owls have been very streaky this season, never winning more than three nor losing more than two straight. Temple has beaten Cincinnati four straight times, scoring more than 30 points in three of the meetings. Cincinnati has been excellent at home this season, winning by an average of 18 points per contest, and will definitely be focused for this one as next week is a huge showdown with Memphis. The Bearcats eight game winning streak is fifth best in FBS, and they've won 12 in a row at Nippert Stadium.
(20) Boise State at Utah State: The Broncos have won 13 of the last 14 meetings, though the loss was in Logan in 2015, by a 52-26 count. A Boise State victory puts the Broncos into the Mountain West title game, while a Utah State upset jumbles things at the top of the Mountain Division. Utah State has rebounded from consecutive losses to win two in a row, but the defense, which was expected to be a strong point, has been far too inconsistent. It's a good bet that senior QB Jaylon Henderson gets the start for Boise State after tossing three touchdowns in last week's 42-9 win over New Mexico.
(21) Oklahoma State at West Virginia: The Mountaineers are fresh off an upset of Kansas State, and could do the same to the Cowboys with word that Spencer Sanders is out for the final games due to a hand injury. That would leave signal-calling duties to senior Dru Brown, who has been solid in limited action but isn't the running threat Sanders is. Since taking over at quarterback for WVU, Jarret Doege has thrown four touchdowns and zero picks and hasn't been afraid to take shots down the field. WVU has lost four in a row in the series.
Kansas at (22) Iowa State: The Cyclones haven't allowed a touchdown to Kansas in 10 quarters, and have won eight of the last nine. Kansas has allowed 31 or more points in six straight games, which means that maybe Les Miles isn't quite as genius at defense as some believe. Iowa State is 11 points from being unbeaten, and six games have been within one score at the end. Brock Purdy has really stepped up his play in recent weeks, tossing multiple touchdowns in three of ISU's last four games. Purdy has been able to do his thing because freshman running back Breece Hall has finally taken off. Hall has four 100-yard games in the last five contests, scoring all seven of his touchdowns in that span.
UCLA at (23) USC: The battle for the Victory Bowl, the Crosstown Showdown, whatever you want to call it -- it's a celebration of two teams with the best uniform schemes in college football. Both get to wear their home duds, and it is beyond grand. Even if the game stinks -- and this one could -- it's lovely to look at. The Trojans are playing for an eighth victory, something that seemed impossible midway through the season and something that could save Clay Helton's job. The Bruins had won three straight before being blasted by Utah, and still have a shot at bowl eligibility with a win here and next weekend against Cal. The home team has won six of the last eight, and USC has taken 15 of the last 20 meetings.
Texas State at (24) Appalachian State: You have to think that the Mountaineers are still wondering what happened on Halloween night at home against Georgia Southern -- the only blemish on the App State ledger. Since then ASU has reeled off road wins against South Carolina and Georgia State, and appears once again to be the team many forecast to nab the New Year's Six bid. Texas State has never beaten App State in three meetings as Sun Belt foes, losing by an average of 21 ppg, and averages just 18.7 ppg this season -- though it has managed 57 points in its last two games. An App State win coupled with a Georgia Southern loss clinches the East Division crown.
(25) SMU at Navy: A crucial battle to remain in first place in the AAC West, between two teams that couldn't be more different. The Mustangs play fast, spread you out and love big plays, while the Middies want to control the clock, grind it out and frustrate the hell out your defense. Navy has won eight of the last nine, and the last two meetings have been decided by a total of four points.
TAKE FIVE (Games Featuring Unranked Teams)
Louisiana Tech at UAB: Legion Field is where visiting teams go to die, as the Blazers have won 17 in a row at home, and have won the last two contests against the Bulldogs. Louisiana Tech is top 35 nationally in Yards Per Play while the Blazers are sixth in that category defensively. La Tech is tied for first in the CUSA West with Southern Miss, and UAB is just a game behind. So there is a lot on the line.
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech: Both teams are still very much in the Coastal Division race, which means the winner will have a leg up on being Clemson's sacrificial lamb. The Panthers have won six of their last seven, including three straight away, though they haven't done it easily -- the average margin of victory in the wins is just over five points. The Hokies have become an offensive machine, scoring 34 or more in five of their last six contests. After tabbing dynamic but inconsistent freshmen Quincy Patterson for a few games, Tech went back to Hendon Hooker to run the show, and he's responded with a 67 percent completion average and 11.4 YPA in the last two games. The home team has taken six of the last eight, and seven of the last 11 tilts have been decided by seven points or less.
Tennessee at Missouri: Don't look now, but a win here makes the Vols bowl eligible. Tennessee has made great strides in year two under Jeremy Pruitt, and sit in third place in the SEC East. Tennessee has won its last three games in impressive fashion, and with Missouri foundering on a four-game losing skid and still unsure whether it is eligible for the postseason, another upset isn't out of the question. Missouri is 5-1 the last six years in home finales, and has pounded Tennessee on the ground in the last three meetings, rushing for 1,080 yards.
Oregon State at Washington State: Bowl eligibility awaits the winner, and the Beavers have been won their last three away from home and have shown real signs of improvement in year two under Jonathan Smith. OSU has averaged 45 points per game in its three road wins, while Wazzu has dropped four of its last six. Washington State has won five straight in the series and knows a win here is vital, with the Apple Cup up next. OSU quarterback Jake Luton has tossed 23 touchdowns and just two picks, while Anthony Gordon leads all of FBS with 39 TD strikes.
San Diego State at Hawaii: This one is defense vs offense, and may the best unit win. The Aztecs rank 10th in yards per play allowed while the Rainbow Warriors are 11th in yards per play. San Diego State has won five of its last 8 road finales, and has won comfortably in its last two trips to the big island. The winner has the inside track to the Mountain West title game, so this one is worth staying up for.
