2019 Big 12 Preview

This could finally be it, folks. The year that Texas is truly back.

Sam Ehlinger (San Antonio Express-News)

The Longhorns are almost completely new on defense, but return most of their vital pieces on offense, including quarterback Sam Ehlinger. Though maligned, Ehlinger is a baller, accounting for 41 touchdowns a year ago to help Texas average 31 ppg. The talent is improving, and it will be interesting to see if a Sugar Bowl upset over Georgia becomes a benchmark victory for Tom Herman's bunch.

Until it is knocked off the mountain, Oklahoma is still the big dog in the Big 12. Working on a string of four straight league titles, the Sooners will be better on defense, simply because it would be nearly impossible to be worse. The offense has put up video game numbers in the first two years of Lincoln Riley's head coaching tenure, helping Sooners QBs Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray to consecutive Heismans. While there has been talk that Jalen Hurts has improved his passing, we are skeptical, and don't expect the offense to be as wide open and explosive as it has been in recent seasons. But Oklahoma will be a player on the national scene as long as Riley is around.

TCU had high expectations coming into 2018, and then the injuries started. Gone were the starting QB and RB and numerous bodies on the O-line. Every level of the defense felt the injury bug, too, so Gary Patterson is moving on quickly from last year. While there are questions at quarterback, the Horned Frogs D could be the best its been in Patterson's 20 seasons. There are stars at all three levels, and a schedule that shouldn't pose many problems until an early October jaunt to Ames to take on Iowa State.

Speaking of Iowa State, the Cyclones should have one of their best teams in years. Brock Purdy was a revelation as a freshman at quarterback and should be even better this time around. Bruiser David Montgomery is gone from the backfield, but a pair of decorated freshmen should keep the ground game humming. A three game stretch of Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Texas late in the season will determine whether or not ISU is truly a contender or a step or two away.

It was hard to figure out Oklahoma State last season. The Pokes upset Boise State, Texas, West Virginia and Missouri, and lost by a point in a wild Bedlam game with Oklahoma as a late two-point conversion failed, but fell to Texas Tech, Kansas State and Baylor as favorites. Inconsistent quarterback play was a big part of the problem, as was a porous defense. The former should improve with redshirt frosh Spencer Sanders throwing to star Tylan Wallace, but the defense could again be an issue with just four starters back. Still, it wouldn't be a shock to see Okie State improve.

Matt Rhule made a tremendous improvement in year two at Baylor, going from one win to seven. Look for the momentum to continue behind standout QB Charlie Brewer and a lethal corps of receivers. The defense should be the best in Rhule's tenure, led by standout DT James Lynch. A closing stretch of TCU, Oklahoma and Texas will be tough.

Texas Tech begins anew after the departure of head coach Kliff Kingsbury to the NFL. He is replaced by Matt Wells, who won at least nine games three times in six seasons at Utah State, and Wells will be able to lean on Alan Bowman at quarterback. The sophomore missed half of last season with injury, but should be ready to battle in 2019 and will have an excellent group of receivers on hand. The defense has experience, led by All-Big 12 candidate Jordyn Brooks at linebacker.

It's a new day in the state of Kansas, for both of the state's football programs. Gone are legend Bill Snyder (Kansas State) and non-legend David Beaty (Kansas), replaced by uber-successful Chris Klieman and Les Miles. Kansas State may take some time to get going as Klieman tries to instill the same culture that won four national titles at North Dakota State, but it helps to have a fairly solid, experienced defense, led by end Reggie Walker. The offense has experience but is largely an unknown.

While it may not result in many victories, fun is back in Lawrence as Miles is set to lead Kansas to what he hopes are better days. The Jayhawks are slowly increasing the talent level, most notably on offense. There is experience up front, which should help JUCO QB Thomas McVittie gain his footing. The Jayhawks will run the ball more this year, and with good reason -- Pooka Williams is one of the most dynamic backs in the Big 12. He'll miss the opener after an off-field domestic violence incident, but rest assured that Miles will lean on him and Khalil Herbert a ton. An improvement over last year's three wins is not out of the question.

Neal Brown will get it done in Morgantown, folks. He will. Just not this year. West Virginia will have to rely on defense if success is to come, and fortunately for new DC Vic Koenning (who led very good Ds at Troy the last four seasons) there is talent to work with, especially in the back seven. The offense lost a ton of firepower -- QB Will Grier and WRs David Sills, Gary Jennings and Marcus Simms -- and could find tough sledding with an almost completely rebuilt unit. Austin Kendall transferred from Oklahoma and will start at quarterback for WVU, which has a murderous middle season run of Texas, Iowa State, Oklahoma and Baylor.

BIG 12 PREDICTIONS

1 Texas (12-1, 8-1)*R
2 Oklahoma (10-3, 7-2)*R
3 TCU (9-3, 6-3)*R
3 Iowa State (8-4, 6-3)*R
5 Oklahoma State (8-4, 5-4)*R
6 Baylor (7-5, 4-5)*R
7 Texas Tech (5-7, 3-6)
8 Kansas State (4-8, 2-7)
8 Kansas (4-8, 2-7)
8 West Virginia (3-9, 2-7)

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Texas over Oklahoma

* Bowl participant
R CFB Focus Top 40 team

ALL BIG 12
FIRST TEAM OFFENSE
QB Sam Ehlinger/Texas
RB Kennedy Brooks/Oklahoma
RB Pooka Williams/Kansas
WR CeeDee Lamb/Oklahoma
WR Tylan Wallace/Oklahoma State
WR Jalen Reagor/TCU
TE Grant Calcaterra/Oklahoma
OT Terence Steele/Texas Tech
OT Lucas Niang/TCU
OG Parker Braun/Texas
OG Marcus Keyes/Oklahoma State
 C  Creed Humphrey/Oklahoma

FIRST TEAM DEFENSE
DE JaQuan Bailey/Iowa State
DE James Lynch/Baylor
DT Ray Lima/Iowa State
DT Corey Bethley/TCU
LB Mike Rose/Iowa State
LB Jordyn Brooks/Texas Tech
LB Kenneth Murray/Oklahoma
CB Adrian Frye/Texas Tech
CB Jeff Gladney/TCU
 S  Caden Sterns/Texas
 S  Greg Eisworth/Iowa State

FIRST TEAM SPECIALISTS
 K Cameron Dicker/Texas
 P  Kyle Thompson/Kansas
RS Jalen Reagor/TCU

SECOND TEAM OFFENSE
QB Brock Purdy/Iowa State
RB Chuba Hubbard/Oklahoma State
RB Keontay Ingram/Texas
WR Collin Johnson/Texas
WR Denzel Mims/Baylor
WR TJ Vasher/Texas Tech
TE Charlie Kolar/Iowa State
OT Sam Cosmi/Texas
OT Julian Good-Jones/Iowa State
OG Jack Anderson/Texas Tech
OG Josh Sills/West Virginia
 C  Zach Shackelford/Texas

SECOND TEAM DEFENSE
DE Reggie Walker/Kansas State
DE Ronnie Perkins/Oklahoma
DT Darius Stills/West Virginia
DT Ross Blacklock/TCU
LB Calvin Bundage/Oklahoma State
LB Marcel Spears Jr/Iowa State
LB Garret Wallow/TCU
CB AJ Green/Oklahoma State
CB Corione Harris/Kansas
 S  Brandon Jones/Texas
 S  Innis Gaines/TCU

SECOND TEAM SPECIALISTS
 K Evan Staley/West Virginia
 P Ryan Bujcevski/Texas
RS CeeDee Lamb/Oklahoma

OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Tylan Wallace
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Mike Rose
COACH OF THE YEAR: Tom Herman/Texas
TOP NEWCOMER: QB Jalen Hurts/Oklahoma

TOP FIVE GAMES (NONCONFERENCE)
Houston at Oklahoma (Sept. 1)
LSU at Texas (Sept. 7)
Iowa at Iowa State (Sept. 14)
Oklahoma at UCLA (Sept. 14)
TCU at Purdue (Sept. 14)

TOP FIVE GAMES (CONFERENCE)
Iowa State at Baylor (Sept. 28)
Texas vs Oklahoma (at Dallas) (Oct. 12)
Texas at TCU (Oct. 26)
Iowa State at Oklahoma (Nov. 9)
Texas at Iowa State (Nov. 16)

TOP FIVE INCOMING FRESHMEN
WR Theo Wease/Oklahoma 
RB Breece Hall/Iowa State
CB Kenyatta Watson/Texas
DT Karter Johnson/TCU
LB DeGabriel Floyd/Texas

TOP FIVE TRANSFERS
QB Jalen Hurts/Oklahoma (Alabama)
DE Shameik Blackshear/TCU (South Carolina)
OT Parker Braun/Texas (Georgia Tech)
WR McLane Mannix/Texas Tech (Nevada)
RB Jordon Brown/Kansas State (North Carolina)

TOP FIVE JUCO TRANSFERS
QB Thomas McVittie/Kansas
DT LaRon Stokes/Oklahoma
LB Caleb Jones/Texas
DE Parker Workman/TCU
DT Sione Asi/Oklahoma Stat

Confidence Heading Different Directions As Red River Shootout Approaches

This will be the scene in Austin Saturday afternoon as Texas and Oklahoma play the Red River Showdown (Dallas Morning News)

There isn't much on paper that says Texas should be able to hang with Oklahoma in this Saturday's Red River Showdown, but, as a wise man once said, games aren't played on paper.

The Longhorns would seem to have the mental edge, coming in off of a confidence-building overtime victory against Kansas State while the Sooners felt the sting of losing at home to Iowa State -- a team which had beaten Oklahoma only five times previously.

Even if Texas is sitting on cloud nine, the Longhorns players know one thing.

"[Oklahoma] is going to come out with a chip on their shoulder," leading receiver Collin Johnson said.

After a shocking home opening loss to Maryland, Texas has improved -- by leaps and bounds in some areas, incrementally in others. Bottom line, the Longhorns right now look more like the team that lost a three-point game to USC than like the team that appeared clueless against the Terrapins.

The Longhorns scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter of last year's game, but it wasn't enough as Oklahoma won 45-40.

Given the history of the rivalry, 12th-ranked Oklahoma knows that it cannot merely assume that it will win just because it is perceived to be the better team.

"They're a good football team," Sooners coach Lincoln Riley said of Texas.

Oklahoma (4-1, 1-1) enters the game with the nation's top offense, averaging 587 yards per game, and is sixth in scoring (44.6). It all begins with quarterback Baker Mayfield, who leads the nation in passing and has yet to throw an interception through five contests.

A Texas native, Mayfield knows how important this game is to fans of both schools, and to the teams as well. He threw for 390 yards and three scores a year ago in this contest. He knows what needs to be done to get his team focused.

"Unfortunately, it's not something to be proud of, but I have two years of experience being a leader in this time period," Mayfield said. "I've been in this situation before, but that means I know what to do and how to handle it. It's the most disappointing thing, you know this team didn't need that loss (against Iowa State) to put our backs against the wall and go to work. ...

"Like we've handled it the past two years, it's back to business."

Texas (3-2, 2-0) has improved in large part because a young team has matured, has stopped making silly mistakes, and has gained confidence.

The Longhorns know that if you can stop Mayfield, your chances of winning increase.

Texas coach Tom Herman believes that one key to keeping the Heisman candidate relatively in check is to limit the amount of time he spends outside of the pocket. Like Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers, Mayfield is an assassin when he rolls out or when pressure forces him to move.

"We're going to do our best to contain and not him get outside of the pocket and keep plays alive," Herman said. "

The teams have alternated victories the past five meetings, with the last three contests all decided by one score. Oklahoma has won six of the last 10 games.

The best advice either coach can give to his team is to play all out, and to expect the unexpected.

"Not a whole lot has changed," said Herman, who was a Texas graduate assistant in 1999 and 2000. "I know it's one of, if not the greatest, rivalries in college football. It would be silly to not recognize the place this rivalry has in college football lore. We recognize that this is a historic game every year, and it's a very heated rivalry."

Texas will likely send Sam Ehlinger out at quarterback, and though he is a true freshman, he is one of the maturing players that appears to be hitting stride.

Ehlinger threw for 380 yards and a pair of touchdowns against Kansas State, and carried the ball 20 times for 107 yards. That dual threat option is what Herman wants his team to have, so he is encouraged by what Ehlinger showed last week.

Johnson had seven catches for 92 yards last week, and presents a big target -- 6-6, 220 -- in the passing game.

Oklahoma has not lost consecutive regular season games since falling to Notre Dame and Texas in 1999, on the way to a 7-5 campaign. Riley believes that his bunch will be ready for Texas, whether or not the Longhorns are ranked, and that they learned a lesson last week.

"Our expectations can't be relative to the team we are playing," Riley said. "That translates into not letting up against lesser teams."

"I am very confident in how this group will respond,"  Riley said.

The Red River Showdown kicks off at 3:30 p.m. on Saturday, from the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. Texas leads the all-time series 61-45-5, and its last two victories over the Sooners were as an unranked team.

USC Wants To Avoid Repeat Of Last Meeting With Texas

 For Texas, it still remains as one of the shining moments in the school's history.

 For fourth-ranked USC, it's more of a bad nightmare -- Vince Young striding into the south end zone of the Rose Bowl, giving Texas a national championship that the Trojans felt was theirs -- a third straight -- and ending a potential dynasty.

 The 2006 Rose Bowl on a loop, it haunts USC fans, so you can bet they are beyond thrilled to be hosting the Longhorns this Saturday night in the Los Angeles Coliseum.

Freshman Stephen Carr is a vital cog in USC's ground game (Los Angeles Times)

 USC is coming off of a dominant 42-24 victory over Stanford, a nemesis that has derailed many recent seasons before they even began. The Trojans out-Stanforded Stanford, rushing for 307 yards -- no one does that to the Cardinal. It put an end to the finesse talk that follows USC around, and branded the Trojans as a legitimate player in the College Football Playoff chase.

 A week after playing an average opener, USC quarterback Sam Darnold was brilliant against Stanford, completing 21-of-26 passes for 316 yards and four touchdowns.

 "You could tell he had his jaw set right," Trojans coach Clay Helton said. "He was coming in there to win that game, and he had a mental focus that was truly special."

 That mental focus turns to Texas, which was waylaid at home in week one by Maryland, but rebounded with a stellar performance last weekend against San Jose State, rushing for 406 yards in a 56-0 romp over San Jose State.

 Helton knows that the Longhorns will come in with nothing to lose and everything to prove, and first-year coach Tom Herman branded himself as something of a giant killer in his time at Houston, beating Oklahoma and Louisville last season when both teams were ranked.

 "I think Tom is one of the most brilliant offensive minds in college football," Helton said. "He's done it at Ohio State (where he was offensive coordinator for the Buckeyes 2014 national champions), he's done it at Houston, and he's going to do it at Texas."

 If Herman is going to do it this week, he will need to find a tonic that stops both Darnold and the USC ground attack. Freshman Stephen Carr averaged 10.8 yards per carry on the way to 119 yards and Ronald Jones II added 116 yards and a pair of touchdowns, giving him five in just two games.

 USC's defense, which took some heat after allowing Western Michigan to rush for 263 yards, beat back the Stanford ground game, limiting the Cardinal to 170 yards, a 75-yard cutback touchdown run by Bryce Love being the only real home run of the evening.

 Texas has a question at quarterback, where incumbent Shane Buechele missed last week's game with an injury. Freshman Sam Ehlinger played well in his first collegiate start, throwing for 222 yards and a touchdown and rushing for 48 yards on seven carries. The Longhorns like to put pressure on a defense with a dual threat quarterback, and both Buechele and Ehlinger can run the read option when called upon.

 Whoever takes the snaps will need to deal with a raucous environment, as the Coliseum is a sellout.

 "The challenge is sticking to your routine," Herman said. "We talk to our players about every great player. One thing that's commonplace, whether it's Michael Jordan or Peyton Manning or Jerome Bettis, every great player has a routine, and they do the same thing every day. They do the same thing every Friday of game week. They do the same thing every Saturday morning of the game. If you can make just getting on the plane the only deviation in that routine, then you've succeeded."

 The Texas defense will need to be stout on money downs against USC, which leads the nation in third down conversion percentage at 73.7.

 "I think on defense we took some major, major strides from a recklessness standpoint," Herman said. "I hate to use that word in football because maybe people might interpret it as you're not playing disciplined. I mean, figuratively, lighting your hair on fire and just going. That's what we have to do this weekend."

Texas battering ram Chris Warren merits attention (Inside Texas)

 USC will need to be wary not just of the quarterback run, but of running back Chris Warren, who rambled for 166 yards and two scores against San Jose State.

 "You could see they brought a physical mentality to the game," Helton said. "We have to be strong enough to stop their rushing attack, or else it's going to a long night."

 Herman liked being the underdog at Houston, and he will make sure his team knows on Saturday that is viewed as the weakling in this fight.

 "We are an underdog," he said. "I mean this is -- they've been doing this a while at Southern Cal, we haven't. So yeah, I mean, I would say they're definitely the favorite."

 A program as proud as Texas' doesn't need gimmicks to get the job done, but even the slightest edge, mentally or physically, will keep the Longhorns focused and in the ballgame.

 So it couldn't hurt to dredge up a couple of old memories, especially if they will make the Trojans sweat a little bit.

 "Vince (Young) comes around, so I'm sure he'll be around this week," Herman said. "We welcome that. We've got one on our staff in Michael Huff that is -- you know, knows very intimately about that game in '05. So everybody's welcome. Every former player is always welcome. So will there be a few more this week than most? Maybe. Because those guys like to relive those things, you know."

 The Trojans lead the series 4-1, but oh, that one.

 "I do remember watching Vince and just being awestruck and remembering how many great players were on that field," Herman said. "Then obviously, that fourth down call down there on whatever it was, the seven-yard line or four-yard line, was one that I remember watching very closely.

 "I like the fact that we play these games. I think it's great that two of the premier brands in college football history are going to face off."

CFF 2017 Rankings -- 25-21