Tuesday Thoughts -- Nov. 7

No, I'm not late due to the end of Daylight Saving Time. I remembered to set my clock back, that has nothing to do with it. I usually present my thoughts on the week that was on Mondays, but yesterday was my lovely wife's birthday, so I was doing all of the nice husbandly things one would expect to be done on a lady's birthday.

Fret not, oh good people, as I am still here.

With just hours before the release of the second set of College Football Playoff rankings, a couple of things are becoming abundantly clear -- there is definitely one, and possibly two, Power 5 conferences in danger of missing the party. We've thought for awhile that the Pac-12 had the smallest margin for error, due to Washington's atrocious non-conference schedule and USC's unexpected inconsistency. No other team in the conference has been good enough to deserve consideration, and if the Huskies don't win out from here it's highly likely that the West Coast will be shut out from the CFP.

While that one was fairly evident, the B1G missing out was less so. Just two weeks ago it looked like both Penn State and Ohio State would fight to the end to secure the conference's invitation -- then it all fell apart. The Nittany Lions lost two straight, to the Buckeyes and Michigan State, and OSU followed up its stirring comeback victory over PSU with a comedown loss to Iowa. The Buckeyes couldn't do anything right defensively, gave up on the run too early and had too many turnovers on offense, and turned in a real clunker. It was their second loss of the season, which means that they, PSU and MSU all have two losses and are likely on the outside looking in.

It doesn't get much better should Wisconsin win the conference title because the Badgers have a SOS of 73, and precious few opportunities to improve it. Even if Wisconsin runs the table, its win in the league title game would likely be over a two (turned to three) loss East Division champ, so there won't be much of a bump. I don't believe the committee would take Wisconsin over a one-loss Oklahoma, Clemson, Notre Dame or Georgia -- even if the Bulldogs don't have a championship on their resume -- so it will need to be complete chaos (meaning a bunch of two-loss teams) for the Badgers to have a real shot.

The Big 12 needs to be careful, too, as it has a pair of teams -- Oklahoma and TCU -- with one loss, and they face off this weekend in Norman. The worst scenario would be for the loser of this game to make the league title game and then knock off this week's winner. That would be yet another conference with a two-loss champ, which means the committee could have its toughest decision ever.

There's even a scenario where a one-loss Alabama doesn't make it. Hard as it is to believe, if the Crimson Tide loses to Georgia in the SEC championship game, it does not have the resume to get in ahead of other one loss teams. What is Alabama's best win to date? Well, if you go by the CFP rankings, it's probably Mississippi State. The Bulldogs were ranked 18th last week and are the only ranked team Alabama has beaten, giving Nick Saban's crew an uphill climb should it lose. It would be in better shape if it lost to Auburn in the Iron Bowl yet still won the SEC title, but still not a given. And no, it won't get in "just because it's Alabama."

That's my favorite part about this whole thing, the conspiracy theories presented by fans.

They think the committee is sitting there, twirling their mustaches and letting out devious laughs, all the while formulating what will do best for ratings. They WANT good games, sure, but they aren't CREATING good games. They are selecting the four teams ranked "on the members evaluation of the teams' performance on the field, using conference championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head results and comparison of results against common opponents to decide among teams that are comparable." That's straight off of the CFP website, so there is no grand plan to elevate one team over another just to get better ratings. If they were really into that, they would have taken a two-loss Penn State or Oklahoma over Washington last season. People can believe what they want, they just need to know that they are wrong.

For what it's worth, I believe the top 10 will look like this --

1.  Georgia
2.  Alabama
3.  Clemson
4.  Notre Dame
5.  Oklahoma
6.  Miami
7.  TCU
8.  Washington
9.  Wisconsin
10.  Michigan State

Fans will still be upset if their team is passed over, but it's really all about what you believe the committee is looking for. Are they looking for the best teams, or the most worthy? Because those aren't the same things. A team could check all of the boxes when you watch it play, but if you compare its resume to another team with the same record it might not hold up nearly as well.

With a plethora of marquee games still remaining, this stuff will all work itself out.

Playing With The Big Boys
If you haven't had a chance to, you should really check out the UCF Knights. Not only are they the best Group of Five team around -- and most likely choice to crash the New Years Six soiree -- they are also the most exciting.

The Knights are that rare team that thinks run-first, yet has enough big plays to keep fans on the edge of their seats. It's run based, with a lot of contributors, and shows option principles with a lot of straight ahead running, relying heavily on the dive play. A lot of players touch the football, which is why UCF is so difficult to defend.

Scott Frost is the head coach who makes it all go, and who likely will be coaching a Power 5 team next season. The former Nebraska star has pushed all of the right buttons this season and UCF has bought into his all-in, no one is more important than anyone else philosophy. 

It starts with quarterback McKenzie Milton, who has been shuffled to the back behind Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph and others despite having comparable statistics. The sophomore is second nationally in passer rating and second in yards per attempt, at a hefty 11.1. He isn't afraid to push the ball down the field, usually to Tre'Quan Smith (19.4 ypc, 9 TDs) but often to Dredrick Snelson (16 YPC) and Jordan Akins (15.9 YPC). This isn't a dink and dunk offense, it's a run, run, big play, touchdown offense. Milton is an able runner (second leading rusher on the team), and lead back Adrian Killins Jr averages over 8.5 yards per carry and has seven touchdowns. It's pick your poison with this bunch, and it's usually the wrong choice because the Knights can do just about everything well.

UCF is top 10 in opponent adjusted efficiency, explosiveness and drive finishing, have victories over the two best teams in the AAC (Memphis and Navy) and a victory over Maryland.

And UCF isn't just a one-trick pony, either. It can play defense.

The Knights are 22nd nationally in defensive efficiency, have 11 interceptions (21st in the country) and have generated 18 turnovers overall. They don't attack a ton, but play sound, fundamental football, led by linebacker Pat Jasinki's 63 stops and ball hawking corner Mike Hughes' 11 passes defended and 28 stops. The stop unit isn't the biggest or baddest around, but its good enough to keep opponents from going wild.

It would be really interesting to see the Knights play an Auburn or an Oklahoma State in the Cotton Bowl, a matchup that many might yawn at, but one that real college football fans would understand is a big-time showdown.

UCF hasn't quite gotten there yet, as there is work yet to be done. The Knights will almost certainly have to finish undefeated, which isn't out of the question. The finale against South Florida will be its toughest game of the season, but there is a better than 50 percent chance the Knights win out.

That would put them squarely in the spotlight, and it would be great if America could see what only a few people know about.