The Wolverines (8-2, 5-2) haven't been bad this season, losing only to ranked foes Penn State and Michigan State, but they have fallen short of the league's Eastern Division crown for the third time in three years of leadership from Jim Harbaugh. A win over the Badgers could change the perception of Michigan from that of a good team to a legitimate up and coming force, and could also make next weekend's rivalry showdown with Ohio State bigger than it already is.
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| Michigan LB Devin Bush is a leader for one of the top defenses in America (Detroit Free Press) |
Michigan is ranked third in the nation against the pass and third in total defense, with athletes at every level of the stop unit. It will need to bring those athletes if it wants to knock off a physical Wisconsin squad that loves to run the football. Freshman tailback Jonathan Taylor is fourth in the country in rushing at 152.5 yards per game, with 12 touchdowns. Stopping him will be the main task for Michigan, but that could be easier said than done.
Active linebackers Devin Bush, who leads the team with 82 stops, and Mike McCray Jr., with 60 tackles, will fill the gaps and go after Taylor, who has fumbled four times this season and is occasionally loose with the football. It will be a clash of wills as physical meets physical.
"Very physical team," Harbaugh said. "Very, very physical on offense. Very good quarterback, very good running back. Really good in the lines on both sides, and skill positions as well. Talented players and very tough schemes to prepare for.”
Badgers quarterback Alex Hornibrook has been solid, ranking 12th nationally in efficiency and completing 64.1 percent of his passes -- most of them to talented tight end Troy Fumagalli, who has a team high 33 catches and three touchdowns. He is a security blanket for Hornibrook, who has a tendency to make poor decisions. His 12 interceptions are the most of any top 50 quarterback, and hasn't helped the Badgers turnover issues. Wisconsin ranks 105th in turnovers lost, something coach Paul Chryst knows could be a real issue against Michigan. Wisconsin will be without top receiver Quintez Cephus, who is out for the year with a leg injury, and could rely even more than usual on Fumagalli.
"You try to make sure someone isn't trying to do too much," Chryst said. "There are times when it's good and you pull the trigger and there are times when you've just got to move off of it. I just think it's trying to make things more simple for him."
Penetrating Wisconsin's top-ranked defense, which allows just 247 yards per contest, could be a major chore for the Wolverines, who rank 94th in total offense. The change to redshirt freshman Brandon Peters has given the offense a boost in recent weeks, however, averaging over 400 yards of offense and scoring at least 33 points in each of the last three games.
"They're strong," Chryst said. "There are really good players and it's a really good scheme. They're executing and playing fast."
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| Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor paces the Badgers physical offense (USAToday) |
Peters has a nice arm, but Harbaugh would still prefer he manage the game more than take it over. The Wolverines have been able to lean on a reliable ground attack, led by Karan Higdon, who has 854 yards and 10 trips to the end zone. He sprained an ankle last week against Maryland and is questionable against the Badgers, and if he is able to go it would bring a real power component to the table. Wisconsin simply does not give up points, allowing 14 touchdowns all season and holding all but one opponent to 17 points or fewer. If Higdon is out, the rushing chores would fall to Chris Evans, who has 569 yards and six touchdowns.
Michigan's ground game has amassed 865 yards the last three weeks, scoring 11 touchdowns and averaging 6.9 yards per carry. That could be difficult to replicate against a Wisconsin defense that is fundamentally sound and more athletic than people think. Four players have over 40 tackles, with linebacker Ryan Connelly leading the way with 55. Fellow linebacker Garrett Dooley paces the squad with 9.5 tackles for loss and also is tops in sacks, with 6.5. It is a real team effort in Madison, which is why Michigan could be up against it offensively.
The Wolverines have become productive since moving away from zone blocking and to more of a power attack up front. That success has Harbaugh optimistic.
"I feel like our execution has been improving," Harbaugh said during the Big Ten teleconference on Tuesday. "I feel like our effort has been improving and the way we finish has also been improving."
Wisconsin had four turnovers last week against Iowa, including two interceptions returned for scores, and has had multiple giveaways in three of the last five contests. If Michigan hopes to find the end zone, it might be wise to force a few turnovers.
"You've got to know what you're doing and understand the different ways that they defend you," Chryst said. "You've got to be on, and the smallest details matter."
Wisconsin (10-0, 7-0) is looking to polish up a resume that at the moment is devoid of a signature victory. The Badgers are ranked fifth by the College Football Playoff committee, but have only one win against a top 25 team and sport a strength of schedule of 67. No team with a SOS lower than 55 has ever made the playoff field, so notching an impressive pelt such as Michigan would help the cause.
The visitor has won just once in the last eight meetings, and Michigan hasn't tasted victory in Madison since 2001. Michigan won 14-7 in Ann Arbor last season, the first meeting with Wisconsin since 2010.
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