Thursday, August 31, 2017

Thursday Night Quick Look -- Ohio State at Indiana

 Unfinished business.

 Ohio State coach Urban Meyer has said that his Buckeyes were embarrassed in last year's College Football Playoff, losing 31-0 to eventual national champion Clemson, and that it wasn't going to happen again. He tweaked the coaching staff, made sure that the players knew what they had to do in the offseason and has his Buckeyes ready for another run at the CFP.
Urban Meyer (AP)

 They uncharacteristically begin the season on the road -- just the 11th time ever, though it happened in 2015 in a victory at Virginia Tech -- and against a Big Ten foe, the first time since 1976 (Michigan State, a 49-21 victory) that has occurred.

OHIO STATE
 The Buckeyes enter the game ranked second in the nation and favorites to win the Big Ten East and the conference title. To do that, they will need to be more consistent in the passing game and not have senior quarterback J.T. Barrett shoulder as much of the load as he has in previous seasons.

 Yes, the quarterback always does the heavy lifting in an Urban Meyer offense, but if Barrett leads the team in carries again this year, something went awry. New offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson comes over from Indiana -- OSU's opponent tonight -- and has an offensive philosophy that favors tempo and open space over all else. Look for the Buckeyes to utilize running backs Mike Weber and J.K. Dobbins quite a bit, sprinkle in some jet sweeps and misdirections to Parris Campbell and Demario McCall, and send receivers Austin Mack and K.J. Hill downfield. The offensive line will need to be better after allowing 28 sacks a season ago. Meyer says that bunch has improved and worked their tails off, and he is confident they will do the job.

 Defensively, the Buckeyes have as much talent as anyone, including the best and deepest defensive front in America. Sophomore Nick Bosa would start just about anywhere, but here he's just another piece of a majestic puzzle. Tyquan Lewis and his eight sacks returns at one end spot, and dynamic Sam Hubbard mans the other side. Bosa and Jalyn Holmes provide almost no drop off, and tackles Dre'Mont Jones and Tracy Sprinkle are stout inside. Linebacker Jerome Baker is an All-America candidate, and while the secondary is being rebuilt, it isn't lacking talent. Corner Denzel Ward could be the next in line for stardom, and he leads an athletic, aggressive group.

INDIANA
 The Hoosiers enter battle with question marks on offense and stability on defense, a big reversal from previous seasons. First year coach Tom Allen was elevated from defensive coordinator, and while the Hoosiers have improved on that side, he probably wishes they had a little easier opening contest.

 Richard Lagow is back under center and will need to improve his accuracy (57.8 percent) if the Hoosiers want to become a feared offense. The top two rushers are gone (Divine Redding went over 1,000 yards last year) so an inexperienced crew will tote the pigskin. Look for junior Mike Majette to get the bulk of the work. Simmie Cobbs junior is back after taking a medical redshirt last season, and he's one of the best receivers in America (1,305 yards in 2015). His battle with the Buckeyes secondary will be worth the price of admission. The offensive line is experienced but watched its sack total increase from 13 in 2015 to 29 a year ago. It will be a real task to keep the Buckeyes pass rushers out of the backfield.

 Defensively, it starts and ends with linebacker Tegray Scales. If you haven't seen the Cincinnati native play, you've really missed out. The senior All-America candidate made 126 stops in 2016, with 16.5 TFL and seven sacks. He's not bad in coverage, takes great angles to the football and seldom gets caught up in traffic. The Buckeyes will need to know where he is at all times. The secondary returns intact, led by corner Rashard Fant, who had a whopping 17 PBU a year ago. He's a tad undersized (5-10) but plays the ball extremely well, and isn't afraid to hit. IU's defensive front plays mostly to occupy gaps and funnel the play to the linebackers, though end Greg Gooch (4.5 sacks) is a dependable sort.

BY THE NUMBERS
 Ohio State has won 22 in a row against Indiana, though two of the last three were narrow wins and close heading into the fourth quarter; The Buckeyes are 18-1 on the road the last four seasons (though just 9-8 ATS as an away favorite in that span); OSU has covered four of five season openers under Meyer; OSU is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games in the first month of the season; Indiana is 14-1 in its last 15 home openers; The Hoosiers have covered the last six vs. the Buckeyes, all as double-digit underdogs; IU is 1-3 ATS in its last four conference contests; Indiana went 12-8-1 ATS as a home dog in six seasons under Wilson, including 5-2 when getting 14 or more points.

THE PICK
 Ohio State will be playing with a chip on its shoulder, and Wilson will want to show his old employer a thing or two. He knows how to scheme against that defense and should be able to put the Hoosiers on their heels for much of the night. While Indiana also knows Wilson's tendencies, it's questionable whether they have the players to stop the Buckeyes. In a game that's interesting until halftime, the Buckeyes athleticism and experience -- led by Barrett, who has a big showing -- helps them pull away and win comfortably.
OHIO STATE (-21) 42, INDIANA 14

QUICK PICKS
Central Florida 34, Florida International (+17) 20
Minnesota (-23.5) 40, Buffalo 12
(10) Oklahoma State 44, Tulsa (+18) 28
Utah (-21.5) 38, North Dakota 16
Arizona State 36, New Mexico State (+23.5) 21

Hokies And Mountaineers Renew Intense Rivalry

 With only 60 miles separating Virginia Tech from the West Virginia border, it's easy to understand the animosity between the Hokies and Mountaineers. There isn't a single player on the Tech roster from West Virginia, and that's by design -- Mountaineers will tell you that they don't much care for the Hokies, and they are stoked to be playing Tech this Sunday, the first time the teams meet since 2005.

 The series was one of the most intense in all of college football, played every year from 1973 to that last game in 2005. It was filled with enmity from the fan bases, especially in Morgantown -- to the point where Tech coach Frank Beamer instructed his players to not take off their helmets on the sidelines, as they might be hit by something flying out of the stands.

 The Hokies had tipped the scales of the series mightily in recent years, winning nine of the last 12 contests, including five of the last six in Blacksburg. This will be a neutral site game, featuring players who were in grade school the last time the teams played.

WVU coach Dana Holgorsen knows his team will be tested (The Smoking Musket)
So the intensity might be dulled a bit, at least on the field. There will be nerves and emotions, but not unbridled hatred.

"As far as the emotions, that's is going to flow naturally," Mountaineers linebacker Xavier Preston said. "You just have to be able to know where you are at and at the same time stay focused on the game. There are going to be a lot of emotions. I think we are capable of handling it."

 Virginia Tech comes into the game ranked 21st, while WVU is one spot behind. The teams haven't played a neutral field since 1962, when they faced off in Richmond, and the coaches are more concerned about getting off to a winning start rather than any sort of deep-seated rivalry stuff. Neither Tech coach Justin Fuente nor WVU boss Dana Holgorsen were around the last time the teams played.

 "You've got a little bit of everything going on in your head," Fuente said. "When you kick it off to start the season on a fantastic stage, against a great opponent, you can't help but feel all of those emotions as the ball kicks off."

 Holgorsen, who has ceded play calling duties this to first year coordinator Jake Spavital, last of Cal Berkeley. Spavital likes the spread and fast tempo that so many teams play, and with Florida transfer Will Grier at quarterback, it will be interesting to see just how smoothly the offense runs.

 "There are some question marks when you have a new quarterback, which we both fall into the same boat when it comes to that, and when you switch coordinators," Holgorsen said. "There's always a level of uncertainty going into year one. Probably this year more than the last couple of years with us, there's probably a higher level of uncertainty."

 Virginia Tech will lean on redshirt freshman Josh Jackson to handle the quarterback chores, and Fuente has praised his work ethic and abilities throughout fall camp. Jackson is, like much of the team, untested -- Tech has 11 redshirt or true freshmen on the two deep, which could provide Fuente some anxious moments.

 "I certainly think you feel better when you have guys that have been out there," he said. "But they all said they wanted to play when we were recruiting them, so here's the opportunity. That's what I tell them, too -- 'I sat in your living room and you told me you wanted to play.' So, it's not good enough at Virginia Tech just to play, but play well. There will be some young guys out there for the first time, but hopefully we've done a great job training them and they will be ready to contribute."

 Two experienced players are also two of Tech's beset -- running back Travon McMillan (671 yards last year) and receiver Cam Phillips (76 catches, five TDs). Rest assured Jackson will look to both often, if only to settle his nerves.

 Grier won't have to win it by himself for the Mountaineers, as running back Justin Crawford -- the Big 12's leading returning rusher (you can win a bar bet with that tidbit) with 1,184 yards -- returns, and wideout Ka'Raun White, who amassed nearly 600 yards before injuring his leg late in the year.

 West Virginia's defense last year was the best its been in some time, allowing just 24 points per game, but only three starters return from that group. The best among them is Mike linebacker Al-Rasheed Benton, who netted 80 stops. The return of safety Dravon Askew-Henry, a preseason all-league pick last year before missing the season with a knee injury suffered in fall camp.
Virginia Tech boss Justin Fuente believes his young team is ready (TechSideline.com)

 The Hokies still have Bud Foster as the architect of the defense, and as long as he's around it almost doesn't matter who the players are. Foster has been one of the best in his field for years, placing Tech first in America in sacks, interceptions, third down conversions and completion percentage since 1996. Foster has the pieces in place to be as ferocious as the 2014 unit, which allowed just 20.2 ppg and tallied 48 sacks. Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds leads the way (106 tackles), and sophomore Trevon Hill is a burgeoning star, compiling 2.5 sacks in mostly reserve duty. The secondary is top-notch, featuring corner Greg Stroman and safety Terrell Edmunds, and will force Grier to be mighty near perfect.

 Having the stage to themselves, on a Sunday evening, will be a thrill for both teams, and facing a ranked opponent right out of the box makes for a special kind of atmosphere.

 "Getting the rivalry started back up, we're all excited about that," Holgorsen said. "We've opened with good teams pretty regularly here. We opened with Alabama in Atlanta; last year we opened with Missouri and a neutral site game versus BYU, which was a big game; we open up with Tennessee next year and Florida State a few years from now. I'm a big fan of it. Having this one right out of the gate is good; I think everybody gets excited about their first game.

 "I have no problems with the first game that's a neutral site that's a "big game." That's fine with me."

 The winner of the contest will receive the Black Diamond Trophy, symbolic of the coal industry's rich history in both states.

WHAT
No. 21 Virginia Tech vs. No. 22 West Virginia
WHEN AND WHERE
Sept. 3rd, 8 pm, FedEx Field in Landover, Md.
WHO TO WATCH
VIRGINIA TECH -- How amped up will Jackson be at quarterback? He will need to find himself quickly if the Tech offense is going to operate with precision. This is not uncharted territory, as Jerod Evans was making his first collegiate start in Tech's 2016 opener. A veteran offensive line should ease Jackson's transition, and having McMillan and speedy Steven Peoples in the backfield should calm him down. The defense was down by Virginia Tech standards last year, with a lack of turnovers and a surprising inconsistency against the run (five opponents were better than 5.0 ypc). Seven starters back means another year of understanding the defense, which should be a boost.
WEST VIRGINIA -- Grier hasn't played in nearly two years, missing the last part of the 2015 campaign at Florida, then getting popped for PEDs and leaving school. He has, by all accounts, blended in nicely, and White and converted quarterback David Sills are two of a deep and experienced receiving corps. The real star is Crawford, who doesn't get the headlines he deserves despite averaging 7.3 ypc. He keeps defenses honest and is a home run threat. How the defense will fare is anyone's guess, as only the linebackers return. Askew-Henry being healthy is a plus, and Syracuse transfer Corey Winfield (85 tackles, 8 pass break ups) will bring energy to a rebuilding secondary. OC Spavital also bears watching as Holgorsen is used to being the primary playcaller.
WHAT DECIDES THE OUTCOME
Whichever strength -- West Virginia's offense vs. Virginia Tech's defense -- holds the upper hand, that's the team that comes out ahead. West Virginia's defense faltered late in the season, and having one of the least experienced teams in FBS is a concern. Don't be surprised if DC Tony Gibson comes up with some wrinkles designed to throw Jackson off balance. For Tech, the ability to get to Grier is paramount as he has shown the ability to throw the football (nearly 66 percent completions at Florida). Crawford should get his, and the Mountaineers won't be afraid to test the Tech secondary deep with Gary Jennings and Marcus Simms. Special teams is always a Tech strength -- 30 scoring returns and 25 blocked kicks since 1987 -- and this year is no different. Kicker Joey Slye is clutch, and Stroman was among the best return men in the country before getting injured.  

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

Coaches Play Coy As Michigan-Florida Showdown Looms

 The run-up to this Saturday's showdown between No. 11 Michigan and No. 17 Florida  has been entertaining -- at times --  banal -- mostly --  and intended to get under the skin of the opposing side.

 Welcome to Gamesmanship 101, with your professors Jim Harbaugh and Jim McElwain.

 Taking evasiveness to new levels, both coaches have been careful to not show their cards when it comes to a starting quarterback. They act as if this is some sort of war doctrine, which cannot be let out to the public.

Michigan's Jim Harbaugh praises Florida's athleticism
 Never mind that it's merely a football game, one that has high stakes but also gives the losing team ample time to recover and still make a case for the College Football Playoff.

 Harbaugh has been particularly tiresome, first declining to release an updated roster for his squad, then finally updating it with a listing of Wolverines in the NFL. Harbaugh said Monday that he knows who will start between Wilton Speight and John O'Korn, and the participants know, too. But he isn't divulging it until the game kicks off.

"Have not heard Florida announce who their starting quarterback is," Harbaugh told reporters during his weekly news conference. "We'd love that information."

 McElwain, who has already put a few cards on the table with this enthusiastic boast, says that the Gators also know their starter, but "We'll leave that for (Michigan) to guess."

 Florida will decide between sophomore Feleipe Franks, senior Luke Del Rio and Notre Dame transfer Malik Zaire. Don't be surprised if Franks, who has the biggest arm and upside, gets the bulk of the work.

 Funny thing is, it's probably not the quarterbacks who will dominate the game. Both defenses were lights out a year ago, Michigan tied for first nationally in total defense, and Florida fifth. Each side has athleticism and playmakers and guys who would run through their mothers to get to the quarterback.

 Limiting big plays will be the focus for both sides, and the one that is more successful will come out ahead.

 This could be a breakout campaign for Michigan defensive end Rashan Gary, who whetted the appetites of Big Blue Nation with four tackles for loss and 27 stops in a limited role and believes the Wolverines are hungry to repeat last year's numbers. Blessed with freakish speed (sub 4.65 at 293 pounds), Gary will team with nose tackle Maurice Hurst (4 sacks, 7.5 TFL) to create havoc against a Gators front that reduced its sacks allowed from 46 to 28 a year ago.

The front seven for Michigan hopes to be as stingy on third down as it was last season, when it led the country by allowing just 21 percent conversions.

 "Things that stand out, defensively, really the way they force their opponents to lose on first and second down," McElwain said. "When looking at film, third and seven-to-10 and third and 11-plus reels, there were a lot of plays on them. So that tells us that they do a great job getting you into uncomfortable situations and behind the sticks. We have to try to stay ahead of the sticks.

Florida's Jim McElwain respects Michigan's defense (Tampa Bay Times)
"The games we've struggled in it's because up front we've been whupped. For us, it's important that those guys understand that, not letting the previous play affect you on the next play. that's probably the big thing. The teams that are really successful have players with short memories, they learn from it and move ahead."

Florida is no slouch on defense, though, with freshman Jabari Zuniga campaigning to be the next big time star. The sophomore netted five sacks a year ago and has a lightning-quick first step, and will need to be a bulwark for a front seven that lost four starters. The Gators secondary should be a handful for Michigan's untested receiving corps, led by All-America candidate Duke Dawson (team-best seven pass breaks up) at corner.

 It's no wonder Harbaugh sees almost a mirror image of his squad in the Gators defense.

"It's a long, athletic team," he said "Very quick and very aggressive. They’ll be in man coverage with an attacking style of defense. (Defensive coordinator) Randy Shannon is an outstanding coach and we’re looking forward to the competition and finding out where were at against a very good, talented team.”

 Michigan is breaking in a host of new skill players on offense, and while Florida is set at running back with Jordan Scarlett, the receiving corps will be missing All-America talent Antonio Callaway and freshman James Robinson, who are both among the eight suspended players for this game.
 
 Both teams realize the challenge that awaits on Saturday, and neither is running from it.

 “There’s no other sport that I can think of right now that doesn’t have a preseason, an exhibition season, or spring training in college or in professional sports other than college football so that’s the…no exhibition games. It’s unique. It is what it has always been, is and for the foreseeable future is going to be. That being understood, you better be ready to play your first game.”

 McElwain, who, like Harbaugh, seems to relish attention, feels that there's nothing better than being thrown into the fire right away.

“Our players come to the University of Florida to play in games like this.”

WHAT
No. 11 Michigan vs. No. 17 Florida
WHEN AND WHERE
Sept. 2nd, 3:30 pm, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
WHO TO WATCH
MICHIGAN --  While quarterback is where most of the eyes are focused, the Wolverines need to show that they can run the football. Chris Evans (614 yards, 7.0 ypc) gets first crack, but USC transfer Ty Isaac should also be in the mix. The receivers are completely new, but talented, led by No. 1 recruit Donovan Peoples-Jones. Classmate Tarik Black is no slouch, ranking among the top 15 receivers nationally in the prep ranks, and Nico Collins is another newcomer with a ton of potential. Gary and Hurst are the stars on defense, but don't overlook LB Mike McCray, the leading returning tackler from a year ago and the son of a former Ohio State captain.
FLORIDA -- The revolving door at quarterback might be designed to keep Michigan on its toes, but it could also serve to discombobulate a Gators offense that wasn't very good last season (23.9 ppg). McElwain came to Gainesville with gaudy offensive credentials, but his teams have yet to show much firepower. It might be best if he picked one quarterback and went ahead. Linebackers David Reese and Kylan Johnson are rangy and lean and can get to the football in a hurry. They will be responsible for limiting Michigan's ground game. In the absence of Callaway, Tyree Cleveland (14 catches, 21.3 ypc) should have a starring role.
WHAT DECIDES THE OUTCOME
First one to 20 wins, right? Both offenses appear to be works in progress, which means an opportune fumble recovery or interception return could prove to be the difference in the game. Florida returned four picks for scores a year ago and could be aggressive in coverage against Michigan's young wideouts. Florida's receivers are also untested, but the difference is that Michigan's secondary lacks a veteran presence. If Franks (or whomever) can unleash just a couple of big throws, the Gators could prevail. Michigan will, per the usual Don Brown directive, be an excellent pass rushing team and bring players from all angles and different sides of the formation. If UM gets to the quarterback, it could set the tone for the rest of the contest.

Tuesday, August 29, 2017

Forget The Hype, Tide And Seminoles Want To Play


Nick Saban knows his Alabama squad faces a major hurdle in Florida State (NY Times)
 Alabama coach Nick Saban was never going to make any grand proclamations about his team as it heads into its opener against No. 3 Florida State, preferring instead to toe the company line.

 He would just as soon leave the bulletin board material to the Seminoles and let his team worry about doing what it does best -- pound opponents into submission with meticulous preparation and all-world talent.

 The top-ranked Crimson Tide face off against a young but hungry FSU squad in a game that is the first-ever season opener to match a pair of top three teams. The hype has been off the charts, deservedly, but both coaches are simply looking to get their teams ready and play the game.

"I think this is a great opportunity for our team to play in a great environment, a new stadium in Atlanta against one of the top teams, no doubt, in the country," Saban said. "Both of these teams are going to be well-prepared to play this game. I'm pleased with the progress we've been able to make with a lot of players, and we've had a good couple of days of work in Florida State prep."

 Fisher sounded like a man who almost relished the stakes, someone who isn't going to be awed by the magnitude of the moment and won't let his players be, either.

 “If you’re here at Florida State playing in these games, you’re going to be in hyped games,” he said. “Every year, we play Clemson, Miami, Florida, Louisville – whoever we play, what conference, what big bowl, play Michigan, (play) in the National Championship game, that’s part of being at Florida State.”

 Both teams have jaw-dropping athleticism, especially on defense, and each is vying for "best secondary in the nation" honors.

 Bama has ballhawk Minkah Fitzpatrick, who is a safety by title but who will line up just about anywhere, hard hitting safety Ronnie Harrison and veteran corner Tony Brown, and a host of guys just waiting to be "next man up."

 The Seminoles counter with safety Derwin James, who missed all but two games last year and has been welcomed back with open arms. James can cover, can play the ball, is a leader and is maybe the most aggressive defensive player in America. Teamed with corner Tarvarus McFadden, they form a great double dare for quarterbacks to face.

 Bama seems to have a slight edge in experience in the front seven, but it's paper-thin.

 Both quarterbacks -- Bama's Jalen Hurts and FSU's Deondre Francois -- were thrust into starting roles and combined to go 24-4 as freshmen a season ago. Hurts is more of a dual threat, but has reportedly worked on his pocket passing in the offseason, while Francois has more than a little Jameis Winston in him -- big arm, unflappable demeanor, ability to take punishment.

 Hurts and Francois will both be under the microscope, and whoever plays the cleaner game will likely be the one helping his team to victory.

 Alabama can overpower opposing offenses with its base defense, and Florida State did have a propensity for allowing Francois to get hit last year. He cannot continue to absorb these kinds of hits if the Seminoles have any kind of design on vying for a berth in the College Football Playoff.

Fisher likes what he has seen from his trench men thus far in fall camp.
Jimbo Fisher leads his young and hungry Florida State team into battle

“I do. I think our lines had a really good camp,” he said. “We ran the football, we pass-blocked and did the things we had assignment-wise, and worked hard on blitz pickups and different things – the running game, the pass game, all the different scenarios.”

Even if it means an early season setback, Saban likes games such as this one because it can prove to be a measuring stick for his team.

"A game like this shows where your team is," Saban said. "You could really play a lesser opponent, not play really well, not really find out exactly where you are and who you are and what you need to do to fix it. When you play a challenging team, I think you find out most of those things about your team in terms of their ability to execute, their psychological disposition."

 Saban and Fisher go back a bit and admit to being friends -- well, as friendly as anyone can be when Saban is involved. Fisher served as Saban's quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator at LSU and often gave the Bayou Bengals defense fits when designing plays. Both coaches have fertile minds and come up with little wrinkles at the proper time, but at their core both win a ton of games because they have the best players.

 They will laugh and joke a bit in the pregame, pat each other on the back and give firm handshakes and congratulations after the contest.

 But during the game? Don't look for many pleasantries.

“When it’s time to keep score, we’ll keep score,” Fisher said. “Until then, we’ll be nice.”

WHAT
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 3 Florida State
WHEN AND WHERE
Sept. 2nd, 8 pm, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Ga.
WHO TO WATCH
ALABAMA -- QB Jalen Hurts stirs the drink with his ability to extend plays. He has very good accuracy with the ball but tends to use the passing attack as an extension of the ground game. Alabama uses short, controlled passes to move the chains and grind opponents down. When it does challenge a defense, it's usually in the form of wonderful Calvin Ridley, the latest in a line of blue-chip receivers in Tuscaloosa. The front seven is, as usual, stout, and the secondary is marvelous. The two (or three) headed monster of Bo Scarbrough, Damien Harris and Josh Jacobs (or freshman Najee Harris, who might play if Jacobs can't answer the bell) might be Alabama's most talented backfield of the Saban era, which is saying something.
FLORIDA STATE -- S Derwin James will be all over the place, and if Alabama doesn't account for him with an extra tight end or a blocking back, he will in the backfield as much as Hurts. James is excellent tracking the ball and is a fearless tackler, and will add some swagger to an FSU defense that at times last season looked average. LB Matthew Thomas is nicked up but should play, and the defensive front is wondrous, led by Derrick Nnadi, Brian Burns and Josh Sweat. Deondre Francois must play a mistake-free game, and will use the running of freshman Cam Akers to pound out the tough yardage. FSU cannot get behind the chains because Alabama feasts on teams in third and long.
WHAT DECIDES THE OUTCOME 
 It would be easy to say the team that scores more, but getting in position to score is nearly as important, and neither team is very likely to put up huge rushing numbers. That means whichever quarterback plays mistake-free football will come out on top. Hurts could get loose for a big play with his feet, while Francois' cannon of an arm could test the vaunted Tide secondary. A close second is third down conversions. Alabama was successful on just two of 15 tries in the national title game against Clemson, and Florida State's defense can be on that level, especially up front. Hurts is not polished enough in the passing game to really win the thing with his arm, so if Alabama faces adversity and is put into a lot of second- and third-and-long situations, Florida State could gain an advantage.

Sunday, August 27, 2017

College Football Focus Studs And Duds Week 1


 Each Sunday, College Football Focus will take a look at the good and bad of the college football weekend, listing three studs and three duds.

 With limited menu options from the opening weekend, we had to get a little creative.

There was a lot of celebrating by Stanford, which blasted Rice 62-7 in Australia (News & Observer)

Studs
Stanford's offense -- The Cardinal scored 62 points against Rice, the most in a season opener since 1968 (68-20 over San Jose State), and piled up 656 yards of offense. That's a stark contrast to last season, when Stanford was held to six points in an upset loss to Northwestern. Stanford had balance (37 passes, 36 rushes) and explosiveness, averaging nine yards per play, and running back Bryce Love was a revelation, finishing with 180 yards and a touchdown on just 13 carries. His play was almost enough to make fans forget about the departed Christian McCaffrey.

Colorado State -- The Rams opened a brand-new, 41,000-seat on-campus stadium in style, putting up 58 points on Oregon State and showing that they will definitely be a factor in the Mountain West race. QB Nick Stevens was stellar, tossing for 334 yards and three touchdowns, but it was an 44-yard interception return by Tre Thomas that put CSU up 34-20 and broke things open.

BYU DL Sione Takitaki -- The junior was all over the field early, creating havoc for a Portland State team that hung around longer than expected. The Cougars won in fairly uninspiring fashion, 20-6, but Takitaki was a one-man wrecking crew, finishing with seven stops, three tackles for loss and a pair of sacks.

Duds
Oregon State -- Gary Andersen was optimistic that his team could maybe make some waves in the Pac-12 this season, but after allowing 58 points to Colorado State and scoring just seven points after halftime, Anderson has to be worried about his season -- hyperbole, maybe, but the upcoming schedule offers little relief. Portland State -- no soft touch, as BYU found out -- comes in next weekend, and then it's Minnesota after that. Then the real fun begins -- at Wazzu, hosting Washington, at USC and hosting Colorado and Stanford. It's easy to see why the Beavers were pointing to the CSU game as important, because it's not impossible that they begin the year 1-7. We'll know more about them after the next couple of games, and maybe CSU was just better. But few -- least of all Anderson -- thought the Rams were 31 points better.


San Jose State -- The Spartans grabbed a 16-0 first quarter lead over a somnambulistic South Florida team before having their doors blown off in a 42-22 rout. What's worse is that San Jose State never really threatened after that first quarter, getting an oh-by-the-way touchdown midway through the fourth quarter. The defense allowed 315 rushing yards, and South Florida ran a school-record 101 plays. South Florida converted two of its three interceptions into scoring drives.

Rice quarterbacks -- The Owls knew they were in for a rough one going against a very good Stanford squad, but it still had to be disappointed with the play of quarterbacks Sam Glaesmann and Jackson Tyner. The pair combined to go just 10-of-24 for 95 yards and two interceptions, were sacked twice and hurried or hit numerous other times. Glaesmann had a QBR of 4.3 while Tyner's was 1.3 -- numbers that aren't going to win a lot of contests.

Sunday Morning Tally

 A lot of people give you predictions but don't hold themselves accountable -- we are not those people.

 Each Sunday morning we will revisit the picks we made on Saturday (or other days) and tally up the hits and the beats, and let you know just how we are doing.

 Here are the results from week one of college football.

Oregon State at Colorado State (-4) -- PREDICTION: CSU 28-21; SCORE: CSU 58-27  (ATS/SU WIN)
Hawai'i at UMass (-2) -- PREDICTION: Hawai'i 30-21; SCORE:Hawai'i 38-35 (ATS/SU WIN)
South Florida at San Jose State (+22) -- PREDICTION: USF 41-24; SCORE: USF 42-22 (ATS/SU WIN)
Stanford vs. Rice (+30.5) -- PREDICTION: Stanford 30-16; SCORE: Stanford 62-7 (ATS LOSS, SU WIN)

Record -- Week 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS; Season 4-0, 3-1

Saturday, August 26, 2017

Saturday Morning Take Five


College Football Week 1 Picks

 Hello, friends. It's Saturday morning, which means kickoff for college football is just hours (or minutes, depending on when you are reading this) away.

 Our Saturday routine will be to make picks of the top five games of the weekend -- hence, the nifty Take Five name -- via video, with the games noted below. We will also predict remaining top 25 games, as well as big matchups outside of the top 25. We will be making the selections against the pointspread, though we will say this is for informational purposes only, as we know that betting on games is a bad, bad thing.

 There are only four games this weekend that match FBS teams, so we will skip the Brigham Young-Portland State contest.

 We will present some pointspread figures here, but the picks will be made in the video above.

 Oregon State at Colorado State (-4) --Oregon State is 26-17 as an away dog L/10 years, but just 5-9 L/3. Oregon State has covered three of last four road openers as a dog. CSU is 9-4 ATS at home the last three seasons, including 4-0-1 in the last five (including a 51 point spread vs. Savannah State, CSU won 65-13). The Rams are also a nifty 5-2 as home faves under third-year coach Mike Bobo.

Hawai'i at UMass (-2) -- UH is 21-23 as an away dog L/10 years, but 3-2 in road openers the last five seasons. UMass has been a home favorite just nine times since the move to FBS, going 5-4 ATS, and was not a favorite in a single game in 2016. The Minutemen are 12-16 ATS in non-conference games, and lost by six on the road against Hawai'i last year as a seven-point dog. UMass is 19-17 ATS three years into Mark Whipple's second stint as head coach.

South Florida at San Jose State (+22) -- USF is just 10-17 as a road favorite the last 10 seasons, but 5-3 in that role the last three years. The Bulls have been favored by 20+ points in their last five season openers, going 2-3, and losing outright on the road against McNeese State in 2013. The Spartans are 1-3 ATS their last four vs. AAC teams, but 24-20 in non-league contests ATS the last 10 years. SJSU is 2-3 L3Y as double digit home dogs.

Stanford vs. Rice (+30.5) -- Stanford is 6-1-2 ATS in neutral site games, including 3-0-1 the L3Y. The Cardinal are just 2-2 as a favorite of 30 points or more the last five seasons, including failing to cover vs. Rice at home last year. Rice is 4-3 in neutral site contests, but has played just one in the last three seasons. The Owls are 7-3-3 the L3Y vs. non-conference teams, and 3-2 in games where they were underdogs of at least 30 points in that span.

Friday, August 25, 2017

College Football 2017 -- Week 1 By The Numbers


 Let Sports Illustrated and Fox Sports and whoever else tell you that Sept. 2 is week one of college football.

 We know the REAL truth -- this weekend, even with a limited slate of games -- is the actual kickoff of the 2017 college football season. And a glorious thing it is.

 Every Friday during the season, we will delve into the best matchups and provide some entertaining, possibly relevant, numbers and facts. Things we find interesting about the matchup, which may or may not have any bearing on the outcome. All games are Aug. 26th.

 Oregon State at Colorado State, 2:30 pm
 Oregon State is just 21-36 on the road the last 10 seasons, but has gone 20-15 in non-conference games; Beavers coach Gary Andersen is 1-1 vs. CSU from his time as head coach of Utah State. OSU is just the fourth Power 5 school to visit Fort Collins since 2004; Colorado State is 20-3 in home openers, and is working on a streak of four straight; CSU is 13-4 at home the last three seasons, but just 8-6 against non-league competition; The Rams offense has allowed just 30 sacks total over the last two seasons.

 Portland State at Brigham Young, 3 pm
 Portland State lost its FBS games last year, to San Jose State and Washington, by an average of 35 ppg; Neil Lomax is probably the most famous player from PSU, and notable head coaches include Mouse Davis, Pokey Allen and Jerry Glanville; Brigham Young is 9-0 vs. FCS programs since 2005, winning by an average of 42 ppg; The Cougars are 12-4 in home openers since 2000, with just one game coming against an FCS team

 Hawai'i at UMass, 6 pm
Hawai'i is coming off a seven-win season, which included a bowl game win over Middle Tennessee; the Rainbow Warriors are just 4-18 in their last 22 road openers, and have dropped six straight by an average of 23 ppg; Hawai'i's 58.7 completion percentage was its highest since 2011 (60.0); UMass has not had a winning season since transitioning to FBS in 2011, with its best win total -- three games -- coming in 2014 and 2015. UMass was -10 in turnovers last season; Dick MacPherson is among the men who have prowled the sidelines in Amherst, winning 45 games in seven seasons.

 South Florida at San Jose State, 7:30 pm
 USF is 8-12 in road openers, and its victory over Syracuse last year snapped a three-game skein; Charlie Strong is just the fourth head coach in school history, following Jim Leavitt, Skip Holtz and Willie Taggart. Only Holtz had a winning record in year one (8-5); The Bulls are +19 in turnovers the past two seasons; USF's 43.8 ppg last year was a school record; San Jose State is 13-2 in its last 15 home openers, but is 6-12 the last four years in non-league action; SJSU allowed 40 or more points six times last season and gave up an average of 5.5 ypc on the ground.

 Stanford vs. Rice, 10 pm (Sydney, Australia) 
The Cardinal have won just twice in six meetings with the Owls, including 23-13 in the last meeting (1963); Stanford is 7-3 in its last 10 road openers, but its last two losses came as a ranked team; Stanford's 26.3 ppg last year were the lowest of the David Shaw era (six seasons), and the 34 sacks allowed was the highest total in that span; Rice has one of the lowest enrollments in all of FBS (6,628); The Owls are 0-26 since 1998 vs. ranked teams, their last win coming in 1997 over No. 21 BYU; Rice is -19 in turnovers the past two seasons; Rice allowed fewer than 21 points just once all of last season.

Wednesday, August 23, 2017

ESPN Fumbles Big Time With Announcer Switch


 It had to be a hoax. Had to be.

 There is no way that something this ridiculous could be real. Maybe it was an Onion story -- that would at least make sense.

 Mind you, ESPN has made some questionable programming decisions over the years -- televising poker, turning SportsCenter into an unwatchable open mic night, giving Skip Bayless a forum -- but this one might just top them all.

ESPN's Robert Lee (left)
 In case you have been living in an underground shelter, preparing for the big one to hit, you might not have seen the decision by the Worldwide Leader to remove a broadcaster from a college football game. Probably not a big deal most of the time, things happen, broadcasters get switched around. It's part of the business.

 This one stands out because ESPN removed a gentleman named Robert Lee -- who is of Asian descent -- from its Sept. 2 broadcast of Virginia/William and Mary. A release said that it was due to an "unfortunate coincidence" of names Lee shared with a former Confederate army general. The recent violence in Charlottesville, Va., was referenced, and the network said it for Lee's own safety that the parties mutually agreed to have him switch to the Pittsburgh/Youngstown State contest that same day. By "mutually agreed" ESPN means it told Lee it was having him switch games.

 ESPN also said, "it's a shame that this is even a topic of conversation." Well, guys, you're the ones who made it so. It's a guarantee that no one would have given a second of thought to the topic on game day had you not brought it into the open.

 The network said that it was worried about Lee's safety -- ? -- as well as his name or image being turned into a joke or into memes.

 An ESPN exec emailed New York Magazine, stating “This wasn’t about offending anyone. It was about the reasonable possibility that because of his name he would be subjected to memes and jokes and who knows what else,” wrote the unnamed executive, who claimed the negative coverage of ESPN’s decision is “reasonable proof that the meme/joke possibility was real.”

 Really, ESPN? This is what you worry about? Someone being upset by a meme?

 Look, there are plenty of things to be concerned about these days, plenty of things that can be politicized -- anthem protests, players wearing BLM shirts, what have you. Someone having a name that is the same as a Confederate icon is not among the things that should keep the suits awake at night, but apparently it is. So does this mean that if an announcer is named James Longstreet or Thomas Jackson or Nathan Forrest, he will also be removed from a broadcast in the south, for safety reasons?

 The lunacy of this decision is mind-boggling. Sure, it won't affect the outcome of the game, and in the long run likely won't affect people watching the contest. But that this is an issue, even in this day and age of rampant PC, is ridiculous.

 Fake news? It would have made perfect sense, especially in this current climate.

 Too bad it was real. And too bad that Mr. Lee became an unwilling part of Internet scorn, because it certainly isn't his fault.

 No, the blame here lies squarely with the Mothership.

 On a sports network that has made a sport of televising silliness, this one takes the cake.

Friday, August 18, 2017

College Football 2017 -- 10 Questions


It won't be long until we see this beautiful sight (Getty Images)


 The 2017 college football season is just around the corner -- only a week away, despite others telling you that the REAL start is Labor Day weekend.

 To that end, we present some questions that are on the minds of fans, and do our best to provide answers, at least as things stand right now. These aren't the trivial things, like the battles over the best tailgate fare or top stadium atmosphere. No, these are questions about the actual players and product.

1. Is this the year a defensive player is truly in contention for the Heisman Trophy?
 If there is any justice, yes. It's no secret that the Heisman is nothing more than a reward for putting up ridiculous offensive numbers, which means anyone who doesn't play quarterback or running back need not bother. And that's a shame, because there are a handful of difference-making players on the defensive side of the ball who could make a legitimate claim for being the nation's best player.
 Houston defensive tackle Ed Oliver proved unblockable as a freshman, and with the promise of more versatility this season -- meaning he can rush the passer from an end spot -- Oliver could truly become a household name.
 Florida State safety Derwin James missed most of last season with a knee injury, and the Seminoles defense suffered in his absence. James is back at full speed, which means the swarming, athletic, playmaking Seminoles should return in 2017. James is the catalyst, and someone offensive coordinators must account for.
 Clemson's Dexter Lawrence is another lineman who creates all kinds of headaches for the opposition. He had seven sacks and six hurries as a freshman, and teamed inside with athletic freak Christian Wilkins, Lawrence could be even more productive this year.
 Since his team isn't very good it's doubtful that Boston College defensive end Harold Landry enters the consciousness of voters, but his 16.5 sacks in 2016 says he should be on their radar.
 Alabama safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is always around the football, and his game-breaking return abilities (186 yards and two scores on six picks) and the fact the Tide will be squarely in the national title hunt means he is firmly entrenched as one to watch.

2. Has the quarterback crop ever been this good and this deep?
 If it has, it's been ages -- maybe the 1983 group, which included Dan Marino and John Elway and Jim Kelly, Hall of Famers all -- though even that group wasn't forecast to have the lasting impression on football that they have (OK, maybe Elway). But we are talking college here, not NFL stardom, and there a ton of guys in the game this year who can really spin it -- any of whom could be regarded as the best quarterback in the game.
 Most are ceding top honors to USC's Sam Darnold, and that isn't without merit. The kid has poise, accuracy and star potential, and is a big reason the Trojans are picked to do big things this year. But is he really that much better than Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield, or Louisville's Lamar Jackson, or crosstown rival Josh Rosen? See where this is going? Throw in Jake Browning from Washington, Mason Rudolph from Oklahoma State, Trace McSorley from Penn State, Ohio State's J.T. Barrett, South Florida's Quinton Flowers, Washington State's Luke Falk, Florida State's Deondre Francois, Alabama's Jalen Hurts and Wyoming's Josh Allen, and you have just a taste of the high quality quarterbacks in college football in 2017.

Kevin Sumlin (Associated Press)
3. Which coach has the shortest rope, and who are the top hot seat candidates?
 There are a number of candidates, but the top choice here is Texas A&M boss Kevin Sumlin. He teased early with an 11 win season, but hasn't gotten past the nine victory mark since, in spite of bringing in heralded recruiting classes. Quarterback issues have plagued the program for some time, and there's just a general feeling that the Aggies should be better than they are. Some feel A&M is a sleeping giant in the right hands, but aren't sure Sumlin's hands are the proper fit.
 Another obvious choice is Brian Kelly at Notre Dame, where it's looking more and more as if the 2012 national championship game appearance was an outlier. Since that 12-win campaign, the Irish have won nine, eight, 10 and four games, and there has been turmoil, transfers and lack of development. New claims from Kelly that too much time spent fundraising caused the Irish to slip last year seem hollow, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him out after the season should the Irish once again struggle.
 Other candidates include Tennessee's Butch Jones, Texas Tech's Kliff Kingsbury, UCLA's Jim Mora and Arizona's Rich Rodriguez.

4. Who are the difference-making transfers?
 The one with the quickest opportunity to shine is Auburn quarterback Jarrett Stidham. He played a little at Baylor before going the JUCO route, and his ability to handle Gus Malzahn's spread will be instrumental in his -- and the Tigers -- fortunes. Stidham has a very good arm, showed poise in his limited time at Baylor, and runs well enough that teams won't be able to simply load up on the pass.
 Others to watch include Pittsburgh QB Max Browne (USC); West Virginia QB Will Grier (Florida); Houston QB Kyle Allen (Texas A&M); North Carolina athlete Stanton Truitt (Auburn); Oklahoma State CB Adrian Baker (Clemson); Northwestern WR Jalen Brown (Oregon); Virginia Tech WR James Clark (Ohio State); Miami (Fla.) CB Dee Delaney (The Citadel); Rutgers RB Gus Edwards (Miami, Fla.); Maryland QB Caleb Henderson (North Carolina); Wisconsin RB Chris James (Pittsburgh); Arizona QB Anu Solomon (Baylor); East Carolina QB Thomas Sirk (Duke); Oregon DL Scott Pagano (Clemson); Nebraska QB Tanner Lee (Tulane); Oklahoma State WR Tyron Johnson (LSU)

 5. Now that it has a championship game, does the Big 12 finally become relevant, and more of a player in the College Football Playoff chase?
 A resounding yes.
 Not only has the league finally implemented a title game -- which many saw as its main obstacle toward inclusion in the College Football Playoff -- but it's doing it the right way, actually pitting the top two teams against each other rather than having division winners face off. Other conferences would do well to follow the lead of the Big 12, and might actually get better games if the actual two best teams played each other for all the marbles.
 Most people know that Oklahoma will once again be imposing, but this could be the year Oklahoma State not only wins Bedlam, but represents in the league in the CFP. Mason Rudolph, James Washington, Justice Hill and a host of offensive weapons make the Cowboys a frightening team.
 The Sooners and Cowboys appear to be the league's best shot at a CFP berth, but the league as a whole is trending upward and is quickly gaining relevance and prestige.

6. Which first year coach has the biggest impact on his team?
 This one is too close to call, so we will declare a tie between two Sunshine State bosses -- South Florida's Charlie Strong and Florida Atlantic's Lane Kiffin.
 Strong had a disastrous tenure as head coach at Texas, failing to guide the Longhorns above .500 in any of his three seasons. He inherits a team ready-made to win, and has one of the most electrifying players in college football in quarterback Quinton Flowers. He will put his stamp on a defense that allowed far too many points (31.6) a year ago, and the Bulls get most of their crucial games at home.
 Kiffin has made some waves since his mid-December hiring, appearing all over Twitter, trolling Ole Miss in the wake of the Hugh Freeze fiasco, and opening his door to players other programs might be afraid of. One thing is certain -- Kiffin has remained in the spotlight, and his team should be pretty good after securing the top recruiting class in Conference USA. Watch for QB De'Andre Johnson, a former Florida State signee with a big-time arm and the ability to lead.
 Just behind those two is new Texas top dog Tom Herman, who comes to Austin after two seasons reinvigorating the Houston program. Herman is an offensive genius, and he's already made inroads on the recruiting trail. He should be good for the development of Longhorns QB Shane Buechele, though his success could be hampered if Texas suffers a spate of injuries because there isn't enough depth -- yet.
 Others with a chance to prove their hires were good ones include Willie Taggart (Oregon), Matt Rhule (Baylor), Ed Oregeron (LSU), P.J. Fleck (Minnesota) and Jeff Brohm (Purdue)
 
Jimbo Fisher (USAToday)
7. Is the SEC still the best conference in the land?
 The talking heads who have an investment in the league will tell you yes, but it's looking more and more -- to these (admittedly old) eyes, anyway -- like the ACC has nudged to the front of the line. The measure of a conference isn't the strength at the top, but the strength of the bottom and the middle.
 The ACC not only has the defending national champ in Clemson, but also Florida State, which is a major contender for the crown this year. Add in Louisville and North Carolina State and you have an Atlantic Division full of potential. The Coastal has two definite frontrunners in Virginia Tech and Miami (Fla.), but Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh are better than most people think, and North Carolina still has athletes, though inexperienced.
 The SEC has Alabama and Auburn as true national title contenders, and Georgia and Florida in the mix if either of those two drop the ball. But LSU has a ton of question marks, Ole Miss is in free-fall, Mississippi State is very young, Kentucky is up and coming but unproven, Tennessee is likely to take a step back. It just appears that the bottom of the SEC isn't as good as the bottom of the ACC, which has only one truly bad team in Virginia.
 The Big Ten has enough dregs -- Rutgers, Illinois and Purdue -- and enough average -- Iowa, Michigan State, Nebraska -- to keep it from being in the discussion, and the Pac-12, flashy though it may be, has little going for outside of Stanford, Washington and USC. UCLA was bad last year, Oregon is an unknown, Washington State is good on offense but not a complete team, Colorado will take a step back and Utah is solid but nothing special. Cal, Arizona State and Arizona are all bad, and until they get better the Pac doesn't have much of an argument.
 The Big 12 could be sneaky good, and might even rival the SEC top to bottom before the year is over. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are CFP contenders, Kansas State is a veteran team that has a chance to be very good, and Texas is energized with new coach Tom Herman. TCU should rebound because Gary Patterson squads aren't bad in consecutive years, West Virginia has potential with Will Grier at quarterback and Baylor should become a physical, defensive-minded team under the guidance of new coach Matt Rhule. Only Texas Tech, Iowa State and Kansas are truly bad, but Tech is only a year removed from a bowl game while the Cyclones and Jayhawks each showed improvement last year.

8. Are there any sneaky-good teams to keep an eye on?
 If you paid attention to our preseason rankings, you know that we are high on a few teams that may not be getting the love nationally that they maybe deserve.
 South Florida's schedule is tailor-made for success, and with Flowers running the offense and Strong putting his stamp on the defense, it would be a surprise if the Bulls aren't the Group of Five teams selected for a New Year's Six game.
 North Carolina State could be in line for big things with a defense that has athletes galore, and a quarterback in Ryan Finley that is better than many know. Do-it-all Jaylen Samuels is a game-changer on offense, and Bradley Chubb and Kentavius Street form a great pass-rushing tandem.
 Northwestern is flying under the radar, but shouldn't be, especially given the experience and talent of QB Clayton Thorsen. The senior has gotten better each year, he can move in the pocket, keeps his eyes upfield and delivers on-time throws. Justin Jackson is a hoss at running back and will keep defenses honest, and saftey Godwin Igwebuike is all over the field for the defense.
 Memphis has standout Riley Ferguson at quarterback and a dynamic offensive attack, and if the defense gets it together -- and it could with six starters returning -- the Tigers could make a real move nationally.
 Brigham Young went 9-4 last year and could be even better this year thanks to home games with Utah and Wisconsin. QB Tanner Mangum has experience, the defense returns seven starters and the recruiting class was a good one. The Cougars might be out of the spotlight at the moment, but a couple of early wins could get the train rolling.

9. Has anyone joined Nick Saban and Urban Meyer in college football coaching's top tier?
 Not yet, though Clemson's Dabo Swinney is right on the doorstep after taking the Tigers to consecutive appearances in the national title game, and a breakthrough win over Alabama in last year's contest. Swinney is heading into his 10th season, and few would have suspected things to go as well as they have upon his hiring. Promoted to head coach halfway through the 2008 season, Swinney had some fits and starts before showing his prowess on the recruiting trail, netting top five classes in 2011 and 2012. That talent helped set the stage for Clemson's ascension into the upper strata of college football, to the point that it has now become a "program", where excellence is expected every year. That pressure isn't always easy to deal with, but Swinney looks like he has the wherewithal to handle it. 

10. How much grousing will there be about the College Football Playoff selection committee and its choices?
 A ton, though truth be told they have done well the first three years. There was some grousing the first year when Ohio State got in over TCU (never mind that the Big 12 didn't declare an official champion nor did it have a title game), and last year when the Buckeyes got in over Penn State (to whom they had lost, but did have a league title and one fewer loss in their column, and a better overall schedule). The committee often talks in circles and contradicts itself afterward, but in the end it gets the four best teams more often than not.
 Results -- Clemson 31-0 over Ohio State last year and Alabama 38-0 over Michigan State a year earlier -- do not invalidate the selections, as body of work is the overriding factor. Fans who complain and say "my team would have done better" are barking up the wrong tree, because it's not about whether or not the game was close, it's about selecting the right teams with the criteria available. And if different committee members have different ideas about things, that's fine. That allows for some flexibility, for some out of the box thinking at times, and it makes for an event that, so far, has proven to be must watch television. If four blue bloods ever make it -- and this is the year it could happen, if the preseason polls are an indicator -- then it will be really special.
 There will be the customary grousing about number five being left out, but you know what? That's life. Not everyone is included, not everyone can win. And since there is no real way of knowing whether No. 5 is actually better than No. 4, I am more than willing to go along with the selections of the committee.

Thursday, August 3, 2017

CFF 2017 Rankings -- 55-51



  


   COLLEGE FOOTBALL FOCUS
       2017 TOP 60 RANKINGS

 It isn’t always easy, determining (read that as guessing) who will have the best teams in college football. Last year we had two of the four playoff teams, but all four of the CFP teams were in our top six, including Washington at 4 – the only publication that had the Huskies making the playoffs. A number of factors go into these rankings – talent, experience, strength of schedule. It’s up to us to figure out which are the most important, and rank  the teams accordingly. One note – this is how we see the teams finishing up the end of the season, not who has the strongest bunch heading into the year. If we did it that way, Alabama or Ohio State would be 1-2 every single season.

 We will unveil five teams per day, until we reach the top 10, at which point we will release 10-5 on one day and the College Football Playoff participants the final day. Today we bring you teams 55-51.


51. Minnesota (9-4) -- A whole lot of coaching transition -- most notably head coach P.J. Fleck, who comes over from Western Michigan -- means the Gophers have turned the page on the Tracy Claeys era (who knew there was such a thing?) -- even though it was a pretty successful one. Fleck took Western Michigan to the Cotton Bowl last year and was respectable against Wisconsin, so now we will see if his enthusiasm plays as well in the Twin Cities. A solid ground game, led by Rodney Smith, and a grudging defense (22.1 ppg) will be the Gophers calling cards, but you Fleck will want to put his offensive stamp on things. That means maybe a little more passing than expected, even with a new quarterback. Michigan and Northwestern on the road will be challenging, but the Gophers could once again flirt with nine victories. If they do that, then everyone will know that the boat is rowing in the right direction. FAST FACT -- The Gophers recovered a nation's-best 16 fumbles in 2016.

Zach Abey (Getty Images)
52. Navy (9-5) -- Houston and South Florida may have generated more headlines the past two seasons, but the Middies are the ones with back-to-back division titles. It could be a bit more difficult to make it three straight with a schedule that includes jaunts to Memphis, Temple and Houston, but given the adversity the Middies faced last season -- 102 missed games by starters/regulars -- nothing is impossible. There is experience on offense, though QB Zach Abey, who started the final two games last year, is young. How he does as a full-time starter bears watching. LB D.J. Palmore led the team in sacks (6) and tackles for loss (11.5), and is the emotional leader for a unit that returns six starters. FAST FACT -- Navy's victory over Houston last season was its first over a top 10 opponent since 1984.

53. Miami (Ohio) (6-7) -- Momentum may or may not mean anything, but if it does then watch out for the RedHawks. Miami won its final six contests before dropping a one-point bowl decision, and is flush with optimism for a team that is the most experienced in the MAC, and third nationally. Dual threat QB Gus Ragland was a big part of the late season success, and he has the controls to himself now. The corner tandem of Heath Harding (11 PBU, 4 INT) and Deondre Daniels (6 PBU) is one of the best around. A late September road trip to Notre Dame should show the nation what kind of mettle Miami, a real contender for the league crown, has. FAST FACT -- The RedHawks became the first team in NCAA history to open 0-6 and finish 6-0.

54. Michigan State (3-9) -- Crash and burn is a term thrown around all the time, but it is a perfect description of what happened to the Spartans last season. After three straight seasons of double-digit wins, MSU couldn't get out of its own way in 2016. Offseason turmoil (players kicked off the team in the wake of a sexual assault investigation) hasn't allowed for a smooth summer, and questions about the overall talent still loom. RB L.J. Scott is one of the few keepers, however, gaining 994 yards and scoring six times. He should have a more pronounced role as the offense breaks in a new quarterback. Normally strong, the defense allowed 27.8 ppg last year and generated almost no pressure on opposing quarterbacks -- and lost Malik McDowell to the NFL Draft. This ranking is pretty much based on the belief that Mark Dantonio will get things going again, but there is not a lot of faith in the talent currently on the roster. MSU will need to play over its head to really challenge for the division, and will likely be satisfied with a return to the postseason and respectability. Trips to Michigan and Ohio State won't make that very easy. FAST FACT -- The Spartans had just 11 sacks in 2016, ranking 124th of 127 teams nationally.

Nick Stevens (The Coloradoan)
55. Colorado State (7-6) -- The Rams weren't far from a really solid season last year, losing by five at Boise State and by a field goal at Air Force. Being the most experienced squad in the Mountain West could reverse their fortunes, as could an offense that averaged 35.3 ppg a year ago and returns QB Nick Stevens, the conference leader in passing efficiency (171.3). CSU will have a brand-spanking new stadium to brag about, and opens against Oregon State, which will not be a pushover. It also faces Colorado in Denver and travels to Alabama, but gets Boise State at home in the season's penultimate weekend. FAST FACT -- The Rams 37-0 victory over Fresno State was their first shutout since 1997.

 We will be back tomorrow with teams 50-46.

 Here are teams ranked 60-56