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| Appalachian State is the cream of the Sun Belt crop |
Enjoy the Sun Belt Conference while you can, because after this season -- while many conferences are begging for teams to join -- the league becomes a little smaller.
Idaho, which drops to FCS next season, and New Mexico State, which will become an independent, are in their final seasons in the league, which should see many of the same teams at the top this year as it did last year.
Appalachian State (10-3, 7-1), just four seasons into FBS membership, has 21 wins over the last two seasons and have made a habit of playing big boys right down to the wire. A late score helped Tennessee beat the Mountaineers by a touchdown in overtime last season, and the talent pool is not diminishing anytime soon in Boone, N.C. That's why they are the pick to come out on top.
But they won't have it easy, by any means.
Troy (10-3, 6-2) boasts a dynamic offense that eclipsed 30 points seven times in 2016 while defensive-minded Arkansas State (8-5, 7-1) has a defensive line that has better talent than some FBS teams and limited five opponents to 20 points or fewer last year.
Appalachian State boasts a potent rushing attack, led by quarterback Taylor Lamb (505 yards, 9 TDs) and running back Jalin Moore (1,402, 10 TDs), the conference's returning rushing leader. The Mountaineers also return wideout Shaedon Meadors (45 catches, 15.9 ypc) and seven starters from one of the best stop units in the entire conference. An opening game showdown at Georgia will give App State a good measure of where it is, as will a late September home tilt with Wake Forest.
Troy might be the toughest team in the SBC to defend as it shows almost perfect balance (485 runs, 493 passes in 2016). Quarterback Brandon Silvers (3,180 yards, 23 TDs) has excellent targets in Emanuel Thompson (80-820-6) and Deondre Douglas (60-740-6), and running back Jordan Chunn (1,288, 16 TDs) rivals App State's Moore as the league's top rushing talent. A solid defense is on hand, and an opening road game against Boise State is certainly winnable.
Idaho (9-4, 6-2) is looking to make its final league campaign a memorable one, and as long as quarterback Matt Linehan (3,184-19 TDs) stays healthy it certainly has a chance to be. Linehan improved his accuracy and decision-making in 2016 and could be in line for even better things this year. Wideout Jacob Sannon (28-303-2 TDs) should become his favorite target and is the team's best game-changer. There's a lot of experience on hand for Paul Petrino, who would love nothing more than to see his team end its Sun Belt tenure with a flourish.
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| Arkansas State's Ja'Von Rolland-Jones is a sack machine |
Arkansas State is a lethal defensive collection of pass rushers, led by NFL prospect Ja'Von Rolland-Jones (57 tackles, 13.5 sacks, 7 TFL). A quick, explosive edge rusher, Rolland-Jones is a tone setter for the Red Wolves, who amassed 32 sacks last season, far and away the best figure in the conference. Alabama transfer Dee Liner -- what other spot would he play? -- added 34 stops and 7.5 tackles for loss, and fortified an interior that was murder against the run (3.1 ypc). Arkansas State wants to control the clock offensively, and could do so with its top two rushers -- Warren Wand (879) and Johnston "Silky" White (472) -- back in the fold.
Georgia Southern (5-7, 4-4) could climb back up the standings after recommitting to a stout ground game. The Eagles went to more of a passing look last year, which proved disastrous, ending a string of six straight playoff appearances. The flexbone is back, which should benefit running back Wesley Fields (492 yards).
Wins over Mississippi State and San Diego State made headlines for South Alabama (6-7, 2-6), but an offensive malaise the second half of the season kept the Jaguars nearer the basement than the top floor. The defensive line is solid, and there is experience in the backfield in running back Xavier Johnson (831-10 TDs) and quarterback Dallas Davis (2,706 passing, 245 rushing). The schedule is once again ambitious as the Jags open at Ole Miss and then host Oklahoma State at Ladd-Peebles Stadium.
Defense will be the calling card for an experienced Louisiana (6-7, 5-3) squad, and linebacker Joe Dillon (12.5 TFL, 7 sacks). The offensive line is stout, which should help an inexperience backfield find its way. The Ragin' Cajuns go to Tulsa and Texas A&M in September and Ole Miss in November, and face Appalachian State, Arkansas State and Idaho on the road. The schedule may be the undoing of this talented, but young, squad.
New Mexico State (3-9, 2-6) is mired in the nation's longest postseason drought, last going to a bowl game in 1960, but that could end as the Aggies boast the most experienced team in the conference and 12th in the nation, so improvement is likely. A JUCO-heavy defense should help the Aggies improve on that side of the football, and the ground attack should have more bite with Larry Rose (865 yards, missed three games) fully healthy. Road trips to Arizona State and Arkansas will be major obstacles, but Arkansas State and Idaho must come to Las Cruces
The season could be over before it begins for Louisiana-Monroe (4-8, 3-5), as the Warhawks open on the road with back-to-back games against Memphis and Florida State, and face Auburn in the season's penultimate contest. Oh, they do get App State and Arkansas State at home, but that's small consolation. The defense has experience and could improve, but the offense will determine how far the ULM goes. The run heavy offense had five players over 250 yards last season, led by running back Ben Luckett (450, 5 TDs).
Georgia State (3-9, 2-6) gets a new head coach in Shawn Elliott, who went 1-5 as interim at South Carolina in 2015. He inherits an experienced squad, especially on the offensive line, and the defense was actually pretty good, ranking second in the conference against the pass. Corners Chandon Sullivan (43 tackles, 4 PBU, 3 INTs) and Jerome Smith (40-1-3) are the best duo in the league.
Coastal Carolina (10-2 as FCS Independent) returns just 10 starters for a team that appears to be evolving into an option-heavy bunch(587 rushes a year ago). Quarterback Austin Wilson is a Syracuse transfer while Boston College transfer Marcus Outlow should get first crack at the running back job, joining holdover Osharmar Abercrombie (396 yards, 4 TDs). The defense was solid last year, but appears to be a bit on the light side, especially for FBS. The Chanticleers are eligible for the Sun Belt title, but cannot go to a bowl game in this transition season.
Texas State (2-10, 0-8) was 128th on offense and 127th on defense a year ago, which explains the on-field struggles. Second-year Everett Withers went 18-7 in two years at James Madison, his last head coaching stint, and has North Carolina and Ohio State in his coaching lineage. Quarterback Damian Williams is a graduate transfer from Mississippi State and should boost the offense. Linebacker Bryan London (141 tackles, 8.5 TFL) was a second-team all-league selection in 2016. Trips to Colorado and Wyoming won't help the win total, but the Bobcats should be a better team than they were a year ago, even if the record doesn't reflect it.
SUN BELT PREDICTIONS
1. Appalachian State
2. Troy
3. Idaho
4. Arkansas State
5. Georgia Southern
6. South Alabama
7. Louisiana
8. New Mexico State
9. Louisiana-Monroe
10. Georgia State
11. Coastal Carolina
12. Texas State
ALL-SUN BELT
OFFENSE
QB Brandon Silvers/Troy
RB Jordan Chunn/Troy
RB Jalin Moore/Appalachian State
WR Emanuel Thompson/Troy
WR Penny Hart/Georgia State
WR Jacob Sannon/Idaho
TE Blake Mack/Arkansas State
OT Beau Nunn/Appalachian State
OT Noah Fisher/South Alabama
OG Frank Sutton/Louisiana-Monroe
OG Colby Gossett/Appalachian State
C Aaron Brewer/Texas State
DEFENSE
DE Ja'Von Rolland-Jones/Arkansas State
DE Aikeem Coleman/Idaho
DT Dee Liner/Arkansas State
DT Jamal Stadom/Troy
LB Eric Boggs/Appalachian State
LB Michael Shaw/Georgia State
LB Kyle Wilson/Arkansas State
CB Clifton Duck/Appalachian State
CB Blace Brown/Troy
S Jeremy Reaves/South Alabama
S Justin Clifton/Arkansas State
SPECIALISTS
K Michael Rubino/Appalachian State
P Payton Theisler/New Mexico State
KR Chris Jones/Coastal Carolina
PR Andrew Zink/South Alabama
OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR -- Jalin Moore
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR -- Ja'Von Rolland Jones
COACH OF THE YEAR -- Neal Brown/Troy
NEWCOMER OF THE YEAR -- DE Rocel McWilliams/South Alabama
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