 |
| Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen |
Part of the appeal of football in the Mountain West Conference is its unpredictability.
Since moving to a divisional format in 2013, the Mountain Division has yet to have a repeat champion, while the West has had just two champions. There has also been at least one team every year that has gone from the bottom of the standings to contending status, which makes for some wild games late in the year.
The league has some familiarity at the top, but there are also a number of teams vying for the title, and it would not be a shock to see any of them upset the balance of power.
In the Mountain (by the way, the league has a stranglehold on most inventive divisional names in America), Boise State (10-3, 6-2) hopes for an outright title this year, and has an NFL prospect in quarterback Brett Rypien (3,646 yards, 24 TDs). But the Broncos are also the least experienced team in the league, with just nine starters back, so there is some concern -- mostly on defense. Back to back road games with BYU and San Diego State will go a long way in determining what kind of season awaits.
Wyoming (8-6, 6-2) came on late and has an explosive offense, led by coveted quarterback Josh Allen (3,203-28). He will be breaking in new weapons this season, which means the defense may need to hold serve early in the year. The Cowboys will have a chance to shine right out of the box as they head to Big Ten country to take on Iowa.
If one team is going to make a jump to contention -- and that sounds silly since it finished just a game out of first -- it could be Colorado State (7-6, 5-3). Year three under Mike Bobo, the team is moving into a campus stadium and has a game-breaker in receiver Michael Gallup (76 catches-1,272 yards-14 TDs). There is also a ton of experience on defense, which means that this slotting could easily turn out to be too low for the Rams, who face Oregon State and Colorado in their first two games before really getting bold, traveling to Alabama on Sept. 16.
The rest of the division is a mosh pit of contenders, albeit just a notch below the top trio.
Air Force (10-3, 5-3) surprised a few with its second double-digit victory season in three years. Quarterback Arlon Worthman (674 rushing, 6 TDs) leads the way, and the Falcons have a defense that was first in turnovers and second in sacks.
New Mexico (9-4, 6-2) looks to stay strong in year six under Bob Davie, with a second place and first place finish the last two seasons. The Lobos led the country in rushing and return Tyrone Owens (1,097-7 TD) and quarterback Lamar Jordan (739-3 TD), but have just three starters back on a defense that was middle of the pack last season. That defense, 11th in the league against the pass, could be New Mexico's Achilles' heel as it must travel to Boise State and Wyoming.
Utah State (3-9, 1-7) has been trending down the last couple of seasons, and return just 10 starters from an offensively-challenged squad (23.9 ppg). An optimist might point to their seven losses by seven points or less, and maybe they have indeed learned from being so close. But the offensive talent simply isn't there, and the defense, while improved, probably won't be good enough to prevent another losing season.
 |
| San Diego State's Rashaad Penny |
In the West (see, I told you the names were inventive), San Diego State (11-3, 6-2) is not only the favorite, but has a shot to be one of the few Group of Five teams to break into the national rankings in 2017. Most teams couldn't deal with the loss of a runner the caliber of Donnel Pumphrey -- who finished his career as the all-time leading rusher in FBS history -- but most teams don't have Rashaad Penny. Penny led the conference in punt returns, and while Pumphrey was putting up pinball number (over 2,000 yards), Penny was quietly amassing 1,018, with 11 trips to the end zone. The defense is the league's best (17.4 ppg) and the Aztecs are thinking big, with consecutive games against Arizona State and Stanford.
Unlike the Mountain, the West race has everyone else playing for second place. But which team finishes second is the conundrum as all have things in their favor. The West also has new coaches in three outposts, which should infuse some enthusiasm into their squads.
Hawai'i (7-7, 4-4) more than doubled its win total from 2015, and a potent offense could be enough to keep the Rainbow Warriors in the hunt for a second straight bowl appearance. Safety Trayvon Henderson (90 tackles, 10.5 TFL) is one of the hardest hitters in the league and could help improve a stop unit which allowed over 31 points per game last year.
Nevada (5-7, 3-5) was a disappointment, sliding below .500 despite having an experienced squad. The offense was 10th in the league and the defense last, so it was a group effort. There is talent on hand, notably running back James Butler (1,336-12 TD) and wideout Wyatt Demps (53-686-9 TD), and Alabama transfer David Cornwell comes in to run the Air Raid offense. The defense switches to a 3-3-5 look, which should take advantage of the Wolf Pack team speed. Road trips to Northwestern and Washington State before the calendar turns to October could set the tone for the season.
It's a totally new look for San Jose State (4-8, 3-5), with a new head coach in Brent Brennan, as well as new offensive and defensive coordinators. There is some talent on defense, a unit that was third against the pass and fifth in getting to the quarterback. Linebacker Frank Ginda (99 tackles, 11.5 TFL, 6.5 sacks) is one of the best in the league, and a player the new coaches can lean on. Oh, did we mention that the Spartans face South Florida, Texas and Utah? Good luck with that.
UNLV coach Tony Sanchez has a great foundation on offense, with a rock-solid line and a deep corps of receivers. The Rebels (4-8, 3-5) can strike with receiver Devonte Boyd (45-746-4 TD), and the 1-2 ground punch of Charles Williams (763-3 TD) and Lexington Thomas (642-5 TD). Defensively is where the problems are, especially against the pass -- and in a league with so many good quarterbacks that's a killer.
Fresno State (1-11, 0-8) would seem to have no place to go but up, and it's quite possible with 10 returning starters on offense and six on defense. Jeff Tedford's squad has a keeper in KeeSean Johnson (66-773-6), and more consistent quarterback play could lead to even bigger numbers. The defense wasn't bad, finishing second against the pass and in total yardage. Fresno wasn't that far off last year, playing six games in which it either led by 14 points or held a fourth quarter lead. A few reversals and the Bulldogs could flirt with a bowl bid.
MOUNTAIN WEST PREDICTIONS
MOUNTAIN
1. Wyoming
2. Boise State
3. Colorado State
4. Air Force
5. New Mexico
6. Utah State
WEST
1. San Diego State
2. Hawai'i
3. Nevada
4. San Jose State
5. UNLV
6. Fresno State
ALL-MOUNTAIN WEST
OFFENSE
QB Josh Allen/Wyoming
RB Rashaad Penny/San Diego State
RB James Butler/Nevada
WR Wyatt Demps/Nevada
WR Devonte Boyd/UNLV
WR Michael Gallup/Colorado State
TE Jake Roh/Boise State
OT James Rast/Air Force
OT Dejon Allen/Hawai'i
OG Aaron Jenkins/New Mexico
OG Trae Moxley/Colorado State
C Mason Hampton/Boise State
DEFENSE
DE Malik Reed/Nevada
DE Kevin Prosser/Wyoming
DT David Moa/Boise State
DT Mike Hughes/UNLV
LB Logan Wilson/Wyoming
LB Josh Watson/Colorado State
LB Frank Ginda/San Jose State
CB Tyler Horton/Boise State
CB Kameron Kelly/San Diego State
S Andrew Wingard/Wyoming
S Trayvon Henderson/Hawai'i
SPECIALISTS
K Luke Strebel/Air Force
P Michael Carrizosa/San Jose State
KR Rashaad Penny/San Diego State
PR Austin Conway/Wyoming
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME -- San Diego State over Wyoming
OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR -- Josh Allen
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR -- Frank Ginda
COACH OF THE YEAR -- Mike Bobo/Colorado State
NEWCOMER OF THE YEAR -- QB David Cornwell/Nevada
No comments:
Post a Comment