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| Could Urban Meyer and Ohio State once again make it to the College Football Playoff? (chroniclet.com) |
It's amazing a difference a year makes -- or, in this case, most of a football season.
The latest unveiling of the College Football Playoff rankings set social media abuzz, with fans outraged that their team was too low, or that another team was too high -- never mind that NONE of this counts until December. And never mind that the committee got the four teams right. If people want to quibble about the order, that's fine. But it isn't like the committee butchered things.
Well, not mostly, anyway.
To hear some fans tell it, one team in the top 10 has no business being there, or anywhere near the upper half of the rankings. This school is wildly overrated, gets all kinds of breaks and is simply chosen because it's a brand name. This school is the Ohio State Buckeyes, and for myriad reasons they have become one of, if not the, most hated schools in college sports. You would have though Urban Meyer kicked puppies and drowned babies the way some fans carry on.
Fans from around the country not only voiced their displeasure with the pecking order of the top four, but were livid that there appears to be a chance that Ohio State -- yes, the same Ohio State that lost 55-24 to a mediocre Iowa squad earlier this month -- has a shot at crashing the party. A remote shot, but a shot nonetheless.
The committee did appear to make a clear path for the Buckeyes, should they win out. OSU came in at No. 9 in the CFP rankings, just behind Notre Dame. The Irish do not have a championship game while the Buckeyes could have one last shot to pretty up their resume in the Big Ten championship game against No. 5 Wisconsin. So the Irish will almost certainly be passed.
Georgia stumbled in at No. 7, fresh off a beatdown at the hands of No. 6 Auburn, which still must play No. 1 Alabama -- with the winner of that game taking on the Bulldogs. Auburn already has two losses and has no margin for error. A loss and it's bye-bye. Another loss for Georgia and it's likely curtains for the Dawgs, even with a road win over Notre Dame padding the resume. Alabama is in the driver's seat, but even the Tide are not a lead pipe cinch to make it with one loss. Alabama has a current Strength of Schedule of 38, which will go down after this weekend's monumental tussle with Mercer, an FCS school that is mediocre even by that level's standards. It will come back up after the Auburn game, but could still be in the low 30s. A loss to Georgia would put it somewhere in the high 30s or low 20s, but only unbeatens or conference champions have gotten in with such a low SOS. Washington got in last year with a 55, while Ohio State as an at large got in with an SOS of 29. So the Tide would likely get in, though it isn't a guarantee.
Wisconsin currently sits at No. 5, and should the Buckeyes beat the Badgers for the B1G crown, they will rocket past Bucky. So OSU is on the precipice, and Clemson and Miami, ranked 2 and 3 respectively, still have to play in the ACC title game. The loser is likely out, though the Hurricanes could sneak in with one loss if the final outcome is close. Miami right now has a SOS of 21 and the No. 1 Strength of Record, but isn't highly thought of by some analytics. If Ohio State has a league crown and a similar SOS, wouldn't it be wrong to take a one-loss Miami, without a conference title, over a two-loss Ohio State with a title?
No? Hmm, that's funny, because fans were screaming bloody murder last year when the one-loss, no conference title Buckeyes got in over a two-loss, conference champion Penn State.
See how that works? You can't have it both ways just because you hate the Buckeyes. If it was all right for a two-loss conference champ to be in last year over a one-loss non-champ, then it must be all right for the same scenario to happen this year, right? Or is it because it's Ohio State that the shouts of "no way" echo throughout the halls of college football? And yes, I realize college football doesn't really have halls to echo down.
This likely dates all the way back to the days of yesteryear, to the first College Football Playoff, all the way back in 2014. The Buckeyes were on the outside looking in in the penultimate CFP ranking, coming in fifth, behind No. 4 Baylor and No. 3 TCU. A 59-0 annihilation of Wisconsin in the B1G championship game impressed the committee, enough to move Ohio State up to No. 3 in the final poll.
The cries of foul from Texas were heard all over the nation, with many accusing the committee of bias and playing to ratings, among other things. Many believe the Buckeyes got in undeservedly -- and that is incorrect.
TCU griped about falling from 3 to 6 without losing, and on the surface that has merit. The resumes for OSU and TCU were virtually identical, in SOS and SOR and Game Control. The Buckeyes had one more win over a top 25 team, but that's splitting hairs. What isn't splitting hairs is that Ohio State was a definitive champion, whereas TCU was not. In his infinite wisdom, Big 12 commish Bob Bowlsby never declared a single champion for the committee to look at, deciding that Baylor and TCU were co-champions. And by the letter of the rule book, they were. But without one champion, the committee could not look at them as single entities, which is a big reason the Horned Frogs didn't make it. Oh, and the fact it lost head to head to Baylor during the season. So if anyone really had a case, it was the Bears, but with a SOS of 57 and just two "good" wins, they weren't going to be in the field. So it was actually a pretty easy case for Ohio State to be selected.
Last year was also filled with turmoil at the end, but was also a pretty easy choice.
The Buckeyes had the advantage over Penn State in just about every metric -- SOS, SOR and especially Game Control (5 to 37). Analytics loved the Buckeyes, too, ranking them in the top five, while Penn State was in the teens. Yes, Penn State won head to head and beat Wisconsin for the league title. But it also lost to Pittsburgh and was battered 49-10 by Michigan, and that ultimately was a big reason for the Nittany Lions playing in the Rose Bowl instead of the playoff. Oh, let us not forget that OSU had three top 10 wins on the resume, the most of any of the CFP participants.
Has the committee cleared a path for the Buckeyes in 2017? Maybe, though there is nothing sinister behind it. Despite the protestations of the fans, teams are not selected because they are brand names or ratings draws, they are selected because the committee feels they are the four best teams.
Do I think Ohio State is one of the four best teams in America? Probably, especially when it is focused and knows what it is. The Buckeyes are a physical, athletic team that loves to get opponents back on their heels, and when they stick to that gameplan they are close to unstoppable. Ask Michigan State. It's when the coaching staff gets cute and tries to make OSU into something it isn't -- a pass-heavy team -- that trouble ensues.
Do I think Ohio State is deserving? Probably not. If the loss to Iowa was earlier in the season it might be more forgivable, but to have it in November, and to rally from that? It seems a pretty big stretch. Ohio State's early loss to Oklahoma wasn't a blowout, but the Buckeyes were outplayed at home by the Sooners. That one could be given a bit more slack because it was very early, and the Buckeyes have changed radically since that contest. If OSU wins out, there won't be another two loss team with a markedly better dossier, and since this is all subjective it wouldn't, on its face, be "wrong."
If Ohio State makes it -- and it ain't impossible, people -- there are going to be a ton of upset fans. And I get that. But the committee has gotten it right all three years -- even if there were some bumps in the road.
This year seems to be more testing than ever, given all of the late season showdowns and looming head to head comparisons of a bunch of two loss teams. Though the committee will do its best to get it right, there will be some inconsistencies.
But that's no big deal -- hell, just look at the fans. When making an argument for their team -- and especially against Ohio State -- consistency be damned.
