It's Championship Saturday in college football, a day when teams give their all to win a ring and to advance -- possibly -- to the College Football Playoff. Four Power 5 conferences will decide their champs today, and all four are in play for the playoff. A myriad of scenarios exist to get Team A or Team B in, and we won't know for certain until Sunday at noon what the playoff field looks like. But we will know by midnight who the champions are, and have a pretty good on handle on which ones will be advancing to the playoff.
There are a handful of regular season games, but we are focusing solely on the league championship contests. The games are listed in the order of kickoff time.
MAC CHAMPIONSHIP (Noon)
Akron (7-5) vs. Toledo (10-2)
The Rockets put up over 600 yards on Akron in a 48-21 victory in late October, and not much has changed to make anyone think the result will be different. QB Logan Woodside should be able to throw against an Akron defense that has been pretty porous this season, and the Rockets should have a nice turnout with the game being played in Detroit.
Line -- Toledo -21; Pick -- Toledo 45-17
AAC CHAMPIONSHIP (Noon)
(20) Memphis (10-1) vs. (14) UCF (11-0)
Certainly the most intriguing of the non-Power 5 contests, this one is a matchup of two of the premier passing teams in America. UCF ranks second and Memphis 10th in passing efficiency, and McKenzie Milton (UCF) and Riley Ferguson are two of the best unheralded signal callers in the land. UCF spanked the Tigers 40-13 way back in September, and we don't expect that to happen again. Look for the scoreboard operator to be busy in this one. A win by the Knights should clinch a spot in a New Years Six bowl game.
Line -- UCF -7; Pick -- UCF 45-35
CUSA CHAMPIONSHIP (Noon)
North Texas (9-3) vs. Florida Atlantic (9-3)
You have to believe the Mean Green are still smarting from the 69 points they allowed to the Owls in October, and that was just one of the six times Lane Kiffin's bunch eclipsed 40 points. Devin Singletary is a workhorse runner who leads the nation in touchdowns (26) and helped FAU score 44 times on the ground this season. Mean Green senior running back Jeffery Wilson will miss the game with an injury, and that's a big loss as he brought 16 touchdowns and over 1,200 yards to the table Both teams will want to keep the football on the ground, and neither is great at stopping the run. So it could come down to quarterback play between FAU's Jason Driskel and North Texas' Mason Fine.
Line -- FAU -11.5; Pick -- FAU 52-21
BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP (12:30 pm)
(11) TCU (10-2) vs. (3) Oklahoma (11-1)
It's all about strength vs. strength, the Horned Frogs showcasing an outstanding defense and Oklahoma running the nation's premier offense. Presumptive Heisman winner Baker Mayfield will try to finish things off with a bang, and it wasn't long ago that he passed for 333 yards and three scores in the Sooners 38-20 victory over TCU. But Horned Frogs coach Gary Patterson is crafty and could have a few tricks up his sleeve, including bringing pressure from different angles to make Mayfield uncomfortable. The underrated part of the OU offense is the ground game, which has 11 touchdowns and averaged nearly seven yards per carry in its last four games. TCU has limited five of its last seven foes to 14 points or less and is among the best at stopping opponents on third down. TCU must find ways to score points because Oklahoma is nearly impossible to contain -- under 30 points just once this season. A TCU victory would send the playoff picture into turmoil, but we think Mayfield will be too focused and play too well to let his team lose.
Line -- Oklahoma -7; Pick -- Oklahoma 42-31
SEC CHAMPIONSHIP (4 pm)
(6) Georgia (11-1) vs. (2) Auburn (10-2)
A winner take all showdown looms in the SEC, and you can bet Georgia will do what it can to avenge the 40-17 beatdown it suffered at the hands of the Tigers just three weeks ago. It wasn't just Auburn's defense that did damage -- the Tigers amassed nearly 500 yards of offense, averaging nearly seven yards per play against a defense that had been in the top 10 most of the season. There are questions surrounding Auburn running back Kerryon Johnson's health, and if he can't go then Kam Martin is more than able to take his place (6.39 ypc). Jarett Stidham has been masterful at quarterback, throwing nine touchdowns and just one pick in the last four games. We have more confidence in him than we do Georgia freshman Jake Fromm, who has been good but more of a game manager. Georgia has not put the ball in his hands to win games, preferring to rely on Nick Chubb and Sony Michel and the ground attack, which ranks ninth in the country. Both teams give up yards grudgingly, so we're going with the better quarterback in this one.
Line -- Auburn -1; Pick -- Auburn 34-21
MOUNTAIN WEST CHAMPIONSHIP (7:45 pm)
(25) Fresno State (9-3) vs. Boise State (9-3)
Fresno is one of the great turnaround stories of the season, going 1-11 a year ago before rising under Jeff Tedford's leadership. Fresno won 26-17 last week, but a rematch with such a quick turnaround is dangerous. Both teams are stout against the run, Fresno ranking 15th and Boise 19th. Points should be at a premium here, so whichever quarterback -- Fresno's Marcus McMaryion or Boise's Brett Rypien -- plays the cleaner game will give his team a leg up toward victory. It's entirely possible Boise played things close to the vest last week, and could well have some tricks up its sleeve. The Broncos have championship experience, and for that reason they get the nod here.
Line -- Boise State -9.5; Pick -- Boise State 27-21
ACC CHAMPIONSHIP (8 pm)
(7) Miami (10-1) vs. (1) Clemson (11-1)
These foes are on different trajectories heading into the league title game -- Miami's first shot since joining the conference in 2003. The Hurricanes slogged through most of the back half of their schedule, looking listless and finally getting tripped up by Pittsburgh in the season finale. Clemson's last real challenge was a seven-point win over NC State at the end of October, and the Tigers have held their last three foes to a total of 27 points. Miami relies on turnovers to spark its offense, but Clemson values the football, turning it over just 13 times all season. Tigers quarterback Kelly Bryant has matured into a real player, and the ground game has really picked up steam, collecting at least 180 yards in its last five contests. Clemson sees another shot at a national title just up the road, while Miami could just be happy to have advanced this far.
Line -- Clemson -9.5; Pick -- Clemson 34-16
BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP (8 pm)
(8) Ohio State (10-2) vs. (4) Wisconsin (12-0)
Who will flinch first? An OSU offense ranked in the top five in most important categories, or a Wisconsin defense that stifles foes with the very best of 'em? The Buckeyes have injury questions surrounding quarterback J.T. Barrett, who left the Michigan game with a knee problem. He had surgery and has practiced, but you wonder how healthy he is. Sophomore Dwayne Haskins entered the game with OSU trailing 20-14 and proceeding to ball out, helping the Buckeyes to a 31-20 victory. Now he may get the start, though this might not be the defensive unit to get inaugurated against. It would be nice if he can lean on RBs J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber, who collectively have scored 17 touchdowns and rushed for nearly 1,800 yards. Wisconsin is first nationally against the run and the pass, as well as total defense. UW is second in points allowed, too. The Badgers don't do it with flash, but with discipline and physical play, and are also grudging on allowing third downs (seventh nationally). Ohio State defensively will need to keep tabs on All-America tight end Troy Fumagalli, who leads the team in catches with 38, and who is an inviting red zone target down the seam (four touchdowns). OSU's linebacker play has been a weak spot all season, so that could play into Wisconsin's hands. Badgers tailback Jonathan Taylor has over 1,800 rushing yards as a freshman, and UW will look to him to set the tone for the offense. If the Buckeyes can get ahead early and unleash its all-world defensive line, it can make Badgers quarterback Alex Hornibrook throw interceptions. Wisconsin has given the ball away 21 times this season, and playing with fire like that against an explosive offense such as Ohio State's could result in getting burned. Wisconsin has heard all season about how it hasn't played anyone, about how it really isn't that good, so you can bet it will have a boulder-sized chip on its shoulder. Which Buckeyes team shows up here? The one that rallied against Penn State and embarrassed a solid Michigan State team, or the one that was blasted by a mediocre Iowa squad? We're guessing it's closer to the former. Whether or not that will be enough remains to be seen.
Line -- Ohio State -6; Pick -- Wisconsin 28-24
2017 RECORD
STRAIGHT UP -- 240-89 (72.9%); ATS -- 172-151-6 (53.3%)
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