IT IS NOT TIME TO SEND RYAN DAY PACKING

Following Ohio State's loss to Oregon, a lot has been made about Ryan Day and his inability to win "big games" (in quotes because people have their own definition of big games, though truthfully it's pretty evident which ones are) and, going forward, taking the Buckeyes to their stated goal of a national title. 

Day is in his sixth full season in Columbus, which seems like a long time but really is not. The coaching business has changed, with fans expecting results sooner, and with transfers now a big part of the equation it is possible to boost a program to the top much quicker than in prior years. OSU fans who have skepticism seem to think that if Day was going to win a title, it would have happened already. But that's not the way it works. 

Some of the all-time greatest coaches took a long time to nab their first crown. Only Barry Switzer at Oklahoma and Pete Carroll at USC were able to break through in rapid fashion. Switzer won in his second year as a head coach at any college level, and Carroll took three years (though had a lot of NFL experience). Most of the others took quite awhile to grab their first national title, as the following numbers show. 

Kirby Smart (6th year as HC/6th at Georgia) 

Urban Meyer (6th year as HC/2nd at Florida) 

Jim Tressel (6th year as HC/6th at Youngstown State)

Woody Hayes(9th year as HC/4th at Ohio State) 

Jimmy Johnson (9th year as HC/4th at Miami) 

Dabo Swinney (9th year as HC/9th at Clemson) 

Nick Saban (10th year as HC/3rd at LSU)

Darrell Royal (10th year as HC/7th at Texas) 

Steve Spurrier (10th year as HC/7th at Florida) 

Ara Parseghian (11th year as HC/3rd at Notre Dame)

Jim Harbaugh (16th year as HC/9th at Michigan) 

Bear Bryant (17th year as HC/4th at Alabama) 

Tom Osborne (22nd year as HC/22nd at Nebraska) 

Bobby Bowden (28th year as HC/18th at Florida State) 

It's a good thing for a lot of these coaches that they weren't coming up today, because many probably wouldn't have had the chance to stick around long enough to win a natty. To say someone can't win a title just because they haven't is silly. They can't until they do. Most of the coaches on this list were probably derided by their fanbase as being unable to win the big one, to bring home the brass ring. Until they did. 

It is possible that Ryan Day isn't the guy to bring a title to Ohio State. But here's the thing -- that's impossible to say after one loss (by a single point) on the road to an excellent team, in an expanded CFP, with all of the Buckeyes' goals still attainable. If Ohio State loses another on the way then maybe that kind of talk can heat up. 

One current coach who has followed kind of the same trajectory and was bashed as someone who couldn't get it done is Steve Sarkisian at Texas. While he hasn't made that ultimate breakthrough, the Longhorns are once again relevant and seem ready for the long haul. Sark is in his 11th season and has a club that is more than just a small threat to win it all. Yet it wasn't that long ago that he was laughed at by outside fanbases, that Texas was going to continue in the malaise it had been in since Mack Brown left. 

Ohio State has not been in any kind of malaise under Day -- hell, the Buckeyes played for the national title in 2020 (yeah, it was a wacky year with Covid). You learn the most about a team following adversity, and the Buckeyes have a full week off before they get ready for another game. We'll see whether there is championship mettle with this bunch, from Day on down to the players. I am confident there will still be calls for his head -- with no definitive upgrade presented -- and that's fine. Fans can fan however they want to. But it should be noted that expectations don't always jibe with reality.

WHO ARE THE BIG GAME COACHES IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL?

 

 

 

Here are some numbers for coaches who have their teams currently ranked in the top 10.

Listed below are years at their current school, record vs Top 10, record vs Top 5 and losses to unranked teams. First year coaches were not considered. 

Steve Sarkisian/Texas (4th year) Top 10: 2-4; Top 5: 1-3; Unranked losses: 5

Dan Lanning/Oregon (3rd year) Top 10: 3-3; Top 5: 1-2; Unranked losses: 0

James Franklin/Penn State (11th year) Top 10: 3-17; Top 5: 1-13; Unranked losses: 14

Ryan Day/Ohio State (6th year) Top 10: 8-8; Top 5: 2-7; Unranked losses: 0

Kirby Smart/Georgia (9th year) Top 10: 19-9; Top 5: 9-6; Unranked losses: 3

Mario Cristobal/Miami (3rd year) Top 10: 0-3; Top 5: 0-1; Unranked losses: 8

Brian Kelly/LSU (3rd year) Top 10: 3-4; Top 5: 0-1; Unranked losses: 2

Matt Campbell/Iowa State (9th year) Top 10: 4-7; Top 5: 2-2; Unranked losses: 24

Dabo Swinney/Clemson (16th year) Top 10: 19-13; Top 5: 10-11; Unranked losses: 16

MOST TOP 10 WINS

Dabo Swinney 19

Kirby Smart 19 

Ryan Day 8

Matt Campbell 4

Dan Lanning/James Franklin/Brian Kelly 3

MOST TOP 10 GAMES 

Dabo Swinney 32 

Kirby Smart 28 

James Franklin 20 

Ryan Day 16 

Matt Campbell 11 

BEST TOP 10 WIN PERCENTAGE 

Kirby Smart 67.8 

Dabo Swinney 59.3 

Ryan Day 50.0 

Dan Lanning 50.0 

Brian Kelly 42.8 

MOST TOP 5 WINS 

Dabo Swinney 10 

Kirby Smart 9 

Ryan Day 2 

Matt Campbell 2 

MOST TOP 5 GAMES 

Dabo Swinney 21 

Kirby Smart 15 

James Franklin 14 

Ryan Day 9 

Matt Campbell/Steve Sarkisian 4 

BEST TOP 5 WIN PERCENTAGE 

Kirby Smart 60.0 

Matt Campbell 50.0 

Dabo Swinney 45.4 

Dan Lanning 33.3 

Steve Sarkisian 25.00

 

Graphic made by @FBInTheBoot  

McCALL LOOKING TO CLOSE COLLEGE CAREER WITH A FLOURISH

Grayson McCall throws downfield in NC State's victory over Western Carolina (Photo by Jaylynn Nash of USA Today)

It was all so familiar, yet at the same time completely new for Grayson McCall. And he was thankful to be in this position, leading a team into battle.

The sixth-year senior quarterback has been around the block a few times, winning three Sun Belt Conference player of the year awards at Coastal Carolina and helping the Chanticleers to multiple league titles. But he missed the last half of the 2023 season after a scary injury, and wasn’t even sure whether he would be able to play football again.

"Originally it was my plan to enter the draft after last season, but the injury set me back and changed that," McCall told reporters during the summer. "At one point I didn't even know if I'd play football again. Dealing with a brain injury, that's nothing to play with. Knowing that, it did come into conversation with doctors that there was a possibility that I wasn't going to be able to play again."

Yet play he did in the Wolfpack’s season-opening 38-21 victory over visiting Western Carolina, and quite well at times. The Charlotte native finished with 318 yards and three scores, all to dynamic wideout KC Concepcion, but also threw an early interception.

There were some plays left on the field in an uneven first half, which saw NC State head to the locker room deadlocked at 14.

It wasn’t as much worry at halftime as it was simply refocusing on what needed to be done.

“We had to make some adjustments at halftime,” McCall said. “I don’t think I played my best ball. It was my first time being out there in a while after not playing the back half of the season last year. It was good to just get out there again.”

McCall admitted to having nerves before the game – partly due to that being typical and partly due to being back on the field for the first time in ages. Those nerves settled quickly, and McCall was able to get down to business.

He found Concepcion streaking across the middle for a 17-yard touchdown strike late in the first quarter, and the second connection was an easy five-yard score early in the second quarter.

The duo hit the trifecta early in the fourth quarter when Concepcion took a slant and motored 35 yards past the Catamounts secondary for his final touchdown. That gave the Wolfpack at 24-21 lead, an advantage that would not be relinquished.

"I didn't play my best ball, but I'm happy to be out there, play four quarters of football, and get the win,” McCall said. “I'm able to go in tomorrow and watch the tape, and there's a lot to get better from."

Heading into the spring, Wolfpack coach Dave Doeren knew that he would need to find a new quarterback. Brennan Armstrong graduated, and MJ Morris transferred to Maryland, and though CJ Bailey was a top 50 quarterback recruit, he likely wasn’t going to be ready to take on the challenge of running the offense. So to the portal Doeren went, where he got one of the top three or four available signal-callers.

McCall fits the mold of what Doeren looks for in a quarterback, and that fact that he had a ton of experience was a bonus.

“He understands the game, he’s a quick learner and he’s a really good teammate,” Doeren said. “He holds himself to a high standard and has no problem holding other guys accountable, and he does it in a good way. He’s demanding, but not demeaning. He’s got great touch on the field … he’s a vet and he’s a great fit in our program.”

Early practice reviews were positive, and McCall took the leadership reins immediately. There was no doubt who was in charge on the field.

“He’s a good quarterback. He knows what he’s doing,” wide receiver Dacari Collins said in preseason. “He’s been in a great offense at Coastal, threw for a lot of yards. He’s a great mobile quarterback running out the pocket, so I’m excited to play with him.”

Though McCall took visits after seeing Raleigh, he knew in his heart that he would end up as a member of the Wolfpack. He told Doeren of his decision, which brought some whoops and hollers to the coaches room and eased Doeren’s mind heading into spring drills.

“(We saw it) right away. The conversation we had was, ‘Coach I want to come home and show the rest of the schools that they missed.’ Just how he goes about his work. The thing that you notice is he’s ready for practice. When he steps on the field, he’s ready,” Doeren said.

“When you get into scrimmages and move the ball situations, there’s another thing that happens and he really understands how to compete and raise his level of play. When you watch his career, some of his best games were in the biggest games. He’s done that a lot.”

McCall came into the season as one of the most accomplished passers in college football, amassing over 10,000 yards in five seasons in Conway. His 88 touchdowns to just 14 interceptions is eye-popping, but the Chanticleers offense gave him a chance to thrive.

Things are a little different in Raleigh under coordinator Robert Anae, but in the end, football is football. A player must make plays, and McCall is confident that he can do that.

"It's been a bit of a mental rollercoaster," McCall said. “I'm grateful to just be here, healthy, and ready to go -- I think it makes that much sweeter when it's all said and done. At the end of the day, I'm going to go let it rip and put and prepare myself to be in the best possible position to be healthy and available."

McCall won 35 games in his time at Coastal, and that winning mentality was a big check mark in Doeren’s book as he wanted someone who was able to put the team over individual goals.

“He’s a winner,” Doeren said. “Three-time player of the year, won a bunch of championships, carries a big chip on his shoulder. In the first conversation we had I could just tell the intangibles that I look for in a quarterback – the way he’s going to lead, his confidence and also the way he cares about people.”

McCall flew under the radar at Porter Ridge High School in Indian Trail, a suburb of Charlotte, and was rated as a two-star prospect by the recruiting services. Even with sold tape and a winning resume, recruiters weren’t exactly beating down his door.

"Coming out of high school, I won a lot of football games, put a lot of good stuff on film and only received four offers," McCall said. "Then at Coastal, I had three really good years and won some really big games there as well but still flew under the radar and felt I wasn't earning the respect I deserved."

That lack of respect is as much responsible for the chip on his shoulder as anything, and it fuels McCall’s desire to be great.

McCall is nonplussed by the jump into a brighter spotlight, and he relishes the high expectations that have been set. In his mind, no one has higher expectations than he does.

"The expectation in Raleigh is not only to win but to win the league," McCall said. "There's a lot of buzz in Raleigh right now. With both the men's and women's basketball teams going to the Final Four and with the baseball team making it to Omaha, we're looking to keep the momentum going into the fall."

 

AUSTRALIAN ACADEMIES HAVE HELPED TO START A COLLEGE FOOTBALL REVOLUTION

Iowa's Tory Taylor is the latest Australian import to win the Ray Guy Award

On the day of our conversation, Nathan Chapman is wearing an Indiana State football hoodie. It makes the interviewer think that maybe there is a cold snap going through Chapman's Australian hometown, so he inquires about it. When told that it's "only 82 or 83 degrees right now," the interviewer chuckles, and asks what temperature he prefers. He says 95, and adds "I like it hot."

That's the perfect adjective to use when talking about the impact Australian punters have had on college football in the last 10 or so years. Similar to the influx of Polynesian players that began in the 1990s, Aussies coming stateside to punt footballs has become a regular way of doing business.

There were 81 punters from Australia on college football rosters in 2023, most being starters. That's a far cry from 2009, when the first of the Aussie imports hit the United States. The University of Hawaii welcomed Alex Dunnachie into its program, and he handled punting duties all four seasons, averaging 42.0 per boot. That was the foot in the door for the next generation of punter, and ProKick Australia and Punt Factory have since helped players kick the door off of its hinges.

“When I laid out my plan this is what it looked like," Chapman said. "What I didn’t realize is that it was gonna take 15 years to get it. My business plan vision is that this is how it starts, that the numbers would be bigger earlier on. I didn’t realize it was going to be two and three a year, twos and threes, fours and fives, seven, 10. In a weird way I always thought this was how it would be, but it was just a lot of hard work to get to this point.”

That hard work has paid off, with Aussies dominating the Ray Guy Award over the last decade. Beginning in 2013 with Memphis' Tom Hornsey, Aussies have won seven of the last 11 honors, including this most recent season when Iowa's Tory Taylor took home the award.

Aussie Mitch Wishnowsky -- the 2015 Ray Guy winner from Utah -- played in the Super Bowl for San Francisco (with Chapman in attendance) so it seems almost surreal that the operation began with such a limited roster. Getting prospects not only interested, but also willing to sign up, was a bit harder than it looked.

“They had no idea," Chapman said. "We’re talking 2006, when the idea came about. Football on the TV was not as prevalent as it is now. It was quite the sell. There was some knowledge, I guess, but it wasn’t all over the place. It was twofold for me – It was hard to convince parents to pay money to teach someone that kicking a ball could get them a scholarship to America. When our first conversation was had with our first three college guys – Alex Dunnachie, Jordan Berry (Eastern Kentucky) and Thomas Duyndam (Portland State) – the parents asked ‘how long have you been doing this?’ I told them I had just started, so let’s go. It was also not easy convincing coaches that ‘we’re going to train some guys in Australia and we would hope you could give them a scholarship.’ It started kind of organically, pretty small with our numbers. We had some really good initial networks, we can reference videos, and had people vouch for us and got us in the door.”

And they have been coming through ever since.

Chapman wasn't just some guy who figured he had a better way to do things. He was actually in the fray, going through mini-camps with Green Bay, and it was there that he made associations that would change his life and give him the confidence that he could pull off this wild idea.

While Chapman was in Green Bay, John Dorsey became the GM, and veteran special teams coach John Bonamego charged the Packers specialty units. Even though he didn't make the team, Chapman was able to foster the relationships he had made into something he could use later.

“I felt connected to the sport, I just didn’t know what it would look like," he said. "It came about like, "I’ll go back and train players and make them better aware of the level required, would you look at them?" They were positive about it and pointed me in the right direction with things. I felt if I trained the right kind of players and get them seen we could be successful."

Laying The Groundwork

Darren Bennett was the first truly successful Australian punter to break through and make a name for himself. He spent 10 seasons with the San Diego Chargers and two more with the Minnesota Vikings, and now he runs something of a support system for Australian punters playing football in America.

He is in charge of Punt Factory, a partner of The Gridiron Company, and is able to communicate and work with players while they are in college. They may not be able to get home for break between semesters, so Bennett is kind of a way station where they can refocus mentally, refine their skills and know they have someone in their corner should things get difficult.

“We’ve just made ourselves a bit of a base for the boys if they get a bit homesick," Bennett said from his home in Tulsa. "It’s a centralized location, it makes it easy for us.”

Bennett runs Punt Factory with former Philadelphia Eagles punter and fellow Aussie Sav Rocca, and he says that their similarities make things easy for the players.

“The great thing about Sav and I, we have similar journeys, so we coach the same way," Bennett said. "We feel like the boys come to us, my wife feeds them some Aussie food and we put a group together and the boys will all bond. When they get spring break, we’ll get six or 10 guys here, in and out, because they have varying spring breaks. I get three or four guys at a time and work with them.”

Bennett knows Chapman and enjoys seeing any and every Aussie punter succeed in the states.

But he modeled his business differently on purpose, and feels that it achieves a specific goal.

“It’s not that there’s a rivalry, it’s more that if a kid wants a more personalized coaching thing they can get it," he explained. "We only have six guys in Melbourne and six guys in Perth, and we do that on purpose.”

Bennett averaged 43.3 yards per punt in his NFL career, placing 31.3 percent of his boots inside the 20, with just over seven percent of his punts resulting in touchbacks. His best year was 2003, when he placed 28 punts inside the 20 and had only three touchbacks. 

Being raised in a culture where Australian Rules Football is the biggest sport on the continent has its advantages, and it makes the move to punting a football fairly easy.

“Americans throw the ball to each other as kids. We get in trouble if we throw it, you’re usually doing pushups after," Bennett explained. "The way to transfer the ball from one person to the other is either to hand pass it or to kick it. We have a different connection to it."

Bennett has been mentoring players since 2004, and it's a source of great pride when someone he has trained ends up making it big, or when they simply send a text saying how thankful they are to have made the connection and learned a few things along the way.

“The parents say to us that it’s great to have an Aussie support system," Bennett said. "It’s kind of like the surrogate family over here. In their short breaks they know it’s a long way to get back to Australia, so the families like the fact they have US support. We’ve put them together, we have sort of a fellowship and we feed them up and send them back to college. They go back with a nicer disposition than when they first get here. It’s not so isolating when you know you have support here.”

It Pays To Be Versatile

There's a common misconception that Australian punters do nothing but rollout a few steps and then boot the ball toward the sideline, looking to get a big time roll or pin the opponent near its own end zone. 

Oh, that happens. But not exclusively. 

Both Chapman and Bennett know the value of versatility, which is why their academies focus on spiral (traditional) as well as drop (rollout) versions.

 “The funny thing is that we spend probably 80 percent of our time teaching them to take two steps and kick it as high as you can, with a spiral, outside the numbers," Chapman said. "Our game of Australian Rules and rugby and soccer, we’re utilizing skills and talents of someone who can do stuff on the run. That rollout Aussie punt is a form of that. You still have to get rid of it in a certain amount of time. It changed where the defense set up and where they’re going to rush from because you can make adjustments. It just gave you the ability to make changes, and therefore made the defense more aware of potential fakes, how do we press up on this. The playbook had to get bigger. There were coaches who had never seen it and they’re saying let’s set up like this, hard right, let’s go opposite. They could get more creative which means you could have an advantage in special teams and give them a punter who could do multiple things.

"The skill itself, having a punter who can kick on the run, and deliver it where you want it downfield, that's big. In Aussie Rules you’re kicking it to the other person down at the other end. The skill here is now to kick it down but away. When they do the rollout it’s a bit more instinctive. There’s plenty of training that goes into all of it, with the spiral and the rollout, and coaches will use all of that as they see fit. We send our guys over to spiral, with the ability to rollout, and then the coaches decide what they want to do in games. I would say the narrative over the years is that Aussie guys, all they do is rollout. No. We want to go over there and spiral. We go over with the ability to do both. The coaches determine how it will best suit their teams, to get an advantage to win. If that means rollout, rollout. Whatever is best for the job.”

Most of the trainees come in more well-versed in rollout, so learning the skills of the spiral punt takes some work. There are some who take to it quickly while others need more time.

“We let them do what’s comfortable, what we call a ladder," Bennett said. "An example of the ladder is that, we have a kid (Lachlan Wilson) at Cal-Berkeley, he was here at Tulsa, and his first year he redshirted and we had him work only on drop punting. There was no pressure on him. His first year playing at Tulsa he probably hit only eight or nine spirals the whole year. Then in his third season, he did whatever he wanted to do. If the coach told him ‘we need a spiral,’ he could do that. I think that’s a logical way to have these boys use their advantage as a drop punter when they first start, and then if we teach them those foundational skills as they get more experience and get more comfortable in the American game, they can implement that spiral. It also becomes a surprise for the returner because if you’re only hitting one every now and then, he’ll creep up on the drop part and you blast one over his head.”

The drop punt has pretty much become a required part of a punter's arsenal, to the point that American kids are learning it. 

Some even excel.

“It makes me prideful watching an American kid who has no connection to us learning how to drop punt successfully in a game," Bennett said. "A lot of them understand that it’s a skill you need to have nowadays to be recruited. All of the guys in the NFL, everyone can do that drop punt. Johnny Hekker is one of the best you’ve ever seen at it, and he’s American.”

Conversely, the Aussies have also figured out that having a two-pronged approach is a good thing.

Mitch Wishnowsky (Photo by Joe Glorisio)

“Mitch Wishnowsky is playing in the Super Bowl for San Francisco," Bennett said. "Cam Johnston, it took Cam a full year to retool his leg swing after he left Ohio State. He has a really good spiral leg swing now, but coming out of college he was probably exclusively a drop punter. The guys realize now that they have great tools at a start, but to go to the next level they need that spiral as well.”

More Than Just Physical Preparation

The physical aspect of punting is definitely driven home, but both Bennett and Chapman realize that there is more to success than just having a big leg or being able to drop the ball inside the five-yard line. A player must have the proper mental approach and understand how success might impact them. There are a ton of outside influences that could derail their aspirations.

“They put themselves in the forefront of social media, and whether they have a good kick or a bad kick there are forms of social media pressure come on them," Chapman said. "It’s a lot to take, for a young man to move across the other side of the world, in a game he’s never played, to have the same expectation of performance as a professional sports person. Some really lean into it, some really enjoy what they do and the journey. The whole thing is a success no matter how many games you play. If you’re prepared to do that you’re on the winner’s list.”

Bennett, who went straight from Australia to the NFL, says nearly all of the kids at the academies decide to go the college route first, and it's an invaluable experience.

“We like our boys to have a two-part journey – guys who come over with just the goal of going to the NFL, they bypass a lot of the great experiences of being in college," he said. "Now with NIL, guys will look at college as their first career. If they’re good enough someone will tell them they can play at that next level."

That college experience impacts not only the players involved, but future players.

“We’ve had 270 scholarships over the course of those years, and now the players who have played have come back and spoken about it," Chapman said. "So their friends now know about it, or they know someone who know they can do it. Fathers watch their sons, and there are cousins and nephews go across, it’s on the TV now. We get commentators speaking about our guys and we watch on TV. They have mates of mates and mates from players from our teams. One player who used to be on a football team with 50-60 kids on it, they all get access to that kid who is now playing on their TV. They tell their friends. 

"Organically it stretched out really quickly. There is a good conversation about what we do, it’s a good opportunity for guys who want to get educated and can kick a football. We do it for the education. Some guys will go to the NFL, some will have really good college careers and that will be it. Some will have tough college careers. But they have also come out of their comfort zone, put themselves in a position to potentially fail into an unknown, on the other side of the world." 

Whether a player makes All-American and ends up getting drafted into the NFL or finishes punting in college -- or simply makes a roster but doesn't get a lot of action -- they are all considered success stories. They have taken on the ultimate challenge of leaving home, going to an unfamiliar country with no friends and precious few contacts and putting in the work to play American football. All while getting an education.

That counts for something in Chapman's book.

“There sort of is no failure, no matter what level you get to," he said. "We’re really impressed by young men who come up and say ‘I want to come down here and be around this program and I do not know what the outcome is going to be.’ I think that’s pretty cool.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BREAKING DOWN BILL O'BRIEN'S OFFENSIVE PHILOSOPHY

 

New Ohio State offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien brings a wealth of experience

With the hiring of Bill O’Brien as Ohio State’s offensive coordinator, there are probably a few questions as to what Buckeyes fans can expect from the offense in 2024.

He called plays for Georgia Tech and Duke in the early and mid-2000s and for Alabama in 2021 and 2022, and had two stints with the NFL’s New England Patriots. When he has had high-end talent, his offenses have been very good, and that’s because he has experience and creativity in his play sequencing. At Alabama, especially, his use of motion and formations would build complementary plays into their sequencing, which led to a 40.5 PPG average over two seasons, as well as finishing eighth (2021) and fifth (2022) in Yards Per Play, adjusted for garbage time. 

Most of the references here will be to Alabama, as it was the most recent college offense O’Brien has been responsible for. He uses the same pre-snap motion to set up different play designs, and showing the defense the same motion by the tight end sets up the subsequent plays, with the defense trying to adjust to the previous scheme that was run out of the same look. Running complementary plays out of the same formation to put defenses in a bind is something experienced play-callers have a knack for, giving the offense continuity. 

O’Brien may not throw the ball deep as often as some, preferring to win with the passing game over the middle portion of the field. His passing system is timing-based, and is unlocked by playing matchups and attacking space that he knows will be there based on coverages. He also likes to add in the element of tempo, which makes it even tougher on defenses, who already have enough to think about with different plays being run out of the same formations and with the same motion.

Look for Will Howard to be in a lot of empty formations, as O’Brien will want him to have a myriad of options pre-snap and answers against any coverage. 

Where a lot of coordinators tell a quarterback to go through progressions from deep to shallow, O’Brien goes from vertical to horizontal. If it’s a left-to-right progression, the verts will be on the left and the horizontals on the right.

He does a lot of scheming tight ends open, which should do wonders for a position that until very recently has had great talent but has not utilized it. O’Brien can get his tight ends open with nub formations (having the tight end be the farthest outside player), and he will also use a lot of 12 personnel. He also isn’t afraid to use 11 and 10, the latter especially when he has an abundance of playmakers at his disposal.

Alabama's run-pass options often had the pass option include downfield routes -- slants or seam routes. With the inside zone run-action pulling the linebacker level out of the passing lane, the quarterback can hit the slant in-stride to create explosive plays. O’Brien will have a more expansive RPO package, and motion will help shape all of it. He will also go downfield out of RPO sets. 

The Buckeyes have what looks to be the nation’s best backfield with TreVeyon Henderson and Ole Miss transfer Quinshon Judkins, and people will be dying to see them on the field at the same time. Based on his history, that doesn’t look very likely to happen, unless Henderson is set out as a receiver and Judkins is behind Howard.

O'Brien's system has always been more one-back runs with multiple tight ends. That could mean utilizing the tight end as a flexible in-line or off-the-line blocker, and he has built his rushing attack off the abilities of the quarterback (DeShaun Watson in Houston and Bryce Young at Alabama). He was able to strike a balance in play calls at Alabama, with 1,005 runs and 1,009 passes in his two seasons. 

The hire by Day may lack flash but given O’Brien’s recent history and his ability to get playmakers out in space and not put such a heavy load on the quarterback from a read standpoint, it would be wise for fans to at least see how things look before throwing up their hands in disgust.

GRADING THE COACHING HIRES

 

Willie Fritz comes to Houston with a reputation for winning

Barring some unexpected firings or retirements, the college football coaching carousel appears to have come to a halt. What does that mean? Why, time for grades, of course. 

This is a long-term prognosis, not necessarily an immediate turnaround, in the moment rating. Some will look good right now and can give a temporary jolt to a program, but may not have staying power. Others may struggle early before getting it going. We favor long-term stability over quick turnarounds, and that's how our grading system will be formulated.

 

We aren't including Northwestern coach David Braun because he coached the Wildcats for the entire 2023 season after Pat Fitzgerald was fired amid allegations of hazing within the program. Braun won Big Ten Coach of the Year honors after guiding the Wildcats to a 7-5 campaign.

 

TOP SHELF

Willie Fritz/Houston: An offensive guru. Fritz has won everywhere he's been, including winning 23 games the last two seasons at Tulane. High caliber athletes should want to play in Fritz's system, so the Cougars could be a player in the new-look Big 12.

 

Bronco Mendenhall/New Mexico: He knows the lay of the land, having been an assistant for the Lobos, and is a consummate winner as a head coach. He has been a master at developing players, so look for the Lobos to be better in short order.

 

Jonathan Smith/Michigan State: The Spartans finally get serious about being good again, and Smith has already shown his ability to secure talent by nabbing some impressive portal additions. If you can win at Oregon State you can win in East Lansing. MSU will be physical and should be built the right way, with an eye on development.

 

Jon Sumrall/Tulane: A former SEC assistant who had a previous stint at the Green Wave's DC, Sumrall is an up-and-comer who should be able to keep up the momentum in New Orleans. Following Fritz won't be easy, but Sumrall has the chops to keep Tulane at the top of the American Conference.

 

VERY GOOD

Curt Cignetti/Indiana: We debated about putting Cignetti one level up, but it's just SO hard to win consistently in Bloomington. He's also 63 years old, so you wonder just how long he'll be on the sideline. He's never had a losing season in his head coaching career, and he should be able to breathe life into a stagnant Hoosiers program.

 

Mike Elko/Texas A&M: After a slew of failed offensive hires, the admins went with a guy who has a defensive bent. That could prove to be wise as Elko should foster a better culture than predecessor Jimbo Fisher had. It may be difficult to win the SEC, but the floor will be higher than it was under Fisher and the Aggies should be competitive more consistently under Elko.

 

Manny Diaz/Duke: He revamped his image as Penn State's defensive coordinator and earned another shot at being a head coach. This seems a better fit than the glare that was Miami, and he can once again hang his hat on defense, and his familiarity with the ACC can't hurt. Don't expect too much of a dip for the Blue Devils.

 

Sean Lewis/San Diego State: If you can win at Kent State, you have a lot going for you. Lewis is a great offensive mind who should bring the Aztecs offense into the 21st century, and he's in a fertile recruiting area so the talent level should get better. 

 

Fran Brown/Syracuse: The only new hire who didn't come from a coordinator or previous head coaching position. Nonetheless, Brown is a top-notch recruiter who should boost the talent level for the Orange very quickly. Learning under Kirby Smart the past few seasons will only help, and Brown has the look of a future star.

 

SOLID

Bob Chesney/James Madison: He steps into a great situation at JMU as the Dukes have won 19 games in two seasons in FBS, though there could be questions about his recruiting ability as he comes in from FCS Holy Cross. Has the look of a burgeoning star, but the Sun Belt is not an easy place in which to win.

 

Jeff Choate/Nevada: He's been at high-profile Power 5 programs and had a four-year stint as head coach at Montana State, where he was wildly successful. He is stepping into a pretty barren situation at Nevada, but he is high energy and likely won't be overwhelmed by the situation given his experience at the top level of college football.

 

Gerad Parker/Troy: He comes over from Notre Dame, where he was offensive coordinator, and seems to have the requisite chops to be a leader at a Group of Five program that is showing itself to be among the best in college football. Troy has been built on defense, but Parker should make the Trojans offense more explosive. A bit of an out of the box hire, which may be just what Troy needs.

 

Scotty Walden/UTEP: El Paso has historically been a tough place to win, but Walden has a few things in his favor: he's young (34), has an excellent offensive mind and he's a Texas native who has relationships in the state. There could be worse deficits to have when talking over a program such as this one.

 

Spencer Danielson/Boise State: The players seem to really like him, which is a plus. He has a high-energy approach, which is a bit of a change from previous head coaches. He's the latest in the "elevate from within" pattern that Boise has used, going back to Dan Hawkins and including Andy Avalos, whom Danielson replaces. Keeping the program filled with high-level talent will be paramount, and right now that's the only unknown.

 

OK, BUT ...

Jeff Lebby/Mississippi State: The Bulldogs are going back to the offensive side of things with this hire, and it should help in the short-term. He's been OC at UCF, Ole Miss and Oklahoma, so the bonafides are there. The program is the issue -- there aren't enough built-in advantages to make this an easy long-term success, so Lebby will be challenged and may need to provide a big culture change if he wants to win consistently.

 

Jay Sawvell/Wyoming: It won't be easy following Craig Bohl, but he has been with the program for four seasons and knows how things work. He's also been a DC under Jerry Kill, Dave Clawson and Bohl, so he's worked under some of the best in the game. First-time head coaches can be dicey, but Sawvell isn't flying blind here.

 

Trent Bray/Oregon State: This is one of the tougher jobs in America, especially now with all of the uncertainty surrounding conference affiliation and the fact he doesn't have head coaching experience. That said, he knows the program, the players seem to like him and he understands what it takes to win in a place such as Corvallis. Whether or not he does it remains to be seen.

 

DOING THIS AGAIN IN THREE YEARS

Derek Mason/Middle Tennessee: His head coaching stint at Vanderbilt was nothing short of disastrous, so maybe he can reinvent himself in Murfreesboro. The defense should be good, few question his acumen on that side of the ball. What will the offense look like? Will he be able to recruit well enough to make an upward move in Conference USA? There isn't much excitement or buzz around this hire, so he will need to prove himself to the fanbase. His P5 background could help.

 

Bryant Vincent/Louisiana-Monroe: He has some background in the Sun Belt, serving as OC and interim head coach at UAB. He worked under Bill Clark, which also counts for something, and his offense at New Mexico in 2023 had some explosiveness. Still, this is one of the tallest tasks in college football as the Warhawks have had just one winning season since joining FBS in 1994. He talked with enthusiasm at his opening press conference, but turning that into results is another matter entirely.

PLENTY ON THE LINE IN THE LATEST RENDITION OF "THE GAME"

The hype is off the charts for this year's edition of The Game

With everything that has been swirling around in the buildup to this year’s edition of The Game, you can forgive both teams if they are a little disconnected from the rest of the football world. Both Ohio State and Michigan have been preparing as best they can, and now that all of that is done there is  just one question remaining.

When can we play some football?

The wait won’t be a terribly long one – just a little after high noon on Saturday, in Michigan Stadium. The Buckeyes and Wolverines will renew a rivalry that is not only the best in college football, but one that has a bit more vitriol than usual. The fanbases of both schools always have their rival high in their thoughts, but this year it’s a little different.

The in-person scouting allegations levied against Michigan have created a bunker mentality among the fanbase – including a break from reality as it comes up with counter allegations, none coming from credible, national media – changing the narrative from simply wanting to beat the Buckeyes to beating them bad enough to break the program.

On the other side, Buckeyes fans have acquired a quiet confidence, and believe that the distractions surrounding the Michigan program will be enough to affect the Wolverines and their ability to focus on the task at hand.

To its credit, Michigan sounds like it knows what lies ahead.

“It’s all about our preparation for Ohio,” head coach Jim Harbaugh said. “The days, the minutes, the hours — everything leading up to this game — that’s where our focus is. Preparing ourselves and planning. Going to practice and then execute. So, anything else is irrelevant when you get into this kind of big game week.”

Harbaugh will not be on the sidelines for this game, which is the final of his three-game suspension levied by the Big Ten in the wake of the in-person scouting allegations. As he has previously, offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore will be the acting head coach as the Buckeyes come to town.

Ryan Day may not talk much about legacy, but he is at what some might call a crossroads, coming off of consecutive losses to the Wolverines, by double-digit margins. There is a growing sentiment that the Buckeyes lack toughness, and that maybe the rivalry contest isn’t approached with the same focus as in previous years. Day approaches the game differently than predecessor Urban Meyer, and if the outcome is the same as it has been the past two years that approach will come under even more scrutiny.

“Not that it’s easy, but the only thing that matters is this game, is this team, is preparing,” Day said. “The rest of it doesn’t matter. We have got to stay disciplined enough to focus on that. It goes back to the conversation about emotion, letting emotion of the game and everything get in the way. We can’t do that. And every year, you learn more and more about this game and the preparation for it. We’re not going to let any of that stuff get in our way, in terms of distractions. We’re just going to focus on this team, this season and preparing the best we possibly can.”

Both teams are currently in the top four in the College Football Playoff rankings – Ohio State at number two, Michigan at three – so there is a ton riding on the outcome. The loser almost certainly will be on the outside looking in while the winner will be off to the Big Ten championship game and, quite probably, the CFP.

This is the 14^th meeting between the teams when both are ranked top five, and Ohio State holds a 7-5-1 advantage in such contests. The home team has won 10 times in this situation, though Michigan bucked that trend last year with a 45-23 victory.

A lot has been made of Michigan’s lackluster schedule, as well as the fact it has looked much more mortal the past two weekends in wins over Penn State and Maryland. The Buckeyes will be the sternest test this season for the Wolverines, but there doesn’t seem to be a ton of concern from the UM camp.

“It’s really a battle tested team,” Harbaugh said. “Amazing effort. The way our players have gone about things, coaches, players … I just think back over the last five, six weeks, especially, it’s just been like a high-pitched siren, like a deafening, ear-piercing noise. After awhile, you start to tolerate it. And then before you know it, you just block it out.”

Day has heard the talk, heard that the Buckeyes need to win and win now, especially when the Wolverines are down their head coach. He’s not having any of it.

“I think with everything going on and the things that are out there, we just kind of stayed away from all the distraction,” Day said. “We have just focused on our team. I think our guys have done a good job of it. I think when you talk to our guys, I’ve talked to them a couple of times about what’s gone on this season and going into the game, but they’re focused on this game, they’re focused on this season, they’re focused on their preparation.”

OHIO STATE OFFENSE

After spending much of the year looking for its groove, the Buckeyes offense has seemingly hit its stride. Ohio State has averaged 6.59 yards per play over the last four games, and currently sits 18^th in the nation in total offense. OSU still is a bit inconsistent finishing drives, sitting at just 61.70 in red zone touchdowns percentage. But that, too, has been trending upward as Ohio State has punched in 75 percent of its red zone trips over the last three contests.

That improvement has come with the return to health of running back TreVeyon Henderson, who has netted 499 yards and five touchdowns in four games since returning to the lineup. His blend of balance, vision and burst has been a nightmare for opposing defenses, and Michigan will have its hands full trying to stop Henderson before he reaches the second level. The Buckeyes have helped him a bit by using motion and bringing in an extra tight end for blocking, and it has worked well. Henderson is especially dangerous between the tackles, where he can pick a hole, put his foot in the ground and cut to daylight.

Kyle McCord followed the best game of his career against Michigan State with a bit of an up and down contest against Minnesota. He has been turnover free in the last two contests and has done a better job going through progressions instead of locking onto his first read. He has been in the fire this season and come out unscathed, but this is his first start in the most hostile environment he has seen. Michigan likes to stunt and twist with its interior players, so McCord may need to get outside the pocket a bit more than usual.

Marvin Harrison Jr (Ohio State Athletics)

McCord’s primary focus will be Marvin Harrison Jr., who had seven grabs for 120 yards and a score in last year’s game, and he presents major problems for the Wolverines. It’s likely that Will Johnson will be trailing Harrison for most of the game, and that’s a matchup that should be worth the price of admission. Johnson is fearless in coverage and will need to be physical against Harrison, who always has an advantage due to the precision of his routes. Look for OSU to move Harrison all over the formation – out wide, in the slot, even offset in the backfield. Emeka Egbuka appears to be back to health, and if Johnson has success limiting Harrison, then Egbuka could end up with a big afternoon. He is excellent underneath and near the boundary, and McCord has looked to him in clutch situations more than a few times. Tight end Cade Stover is the wild card for OSU, with the size and speed to create mismatches.

The game will be won or lost up front, and while the Buckeyes have improved in run blocking, there have still been some anxious moments in pass protection. Ohio State may need to use more of a quick passing game early, getting the ball to the edges with Henderson and Harrison and Egbuka and Xavier Johnson. Michigan’s edge rush is not great, but the Wolverines have shown they can get home bringing just four so McCord will need to be cognizant of pressure and his checkdowns.

OHIO STATE DEFENSE

The Buckeyes are near the top in most important defensive statistics and have looked nearly impenetrable at times this season. But that was the story last year, too, and Michigan was able to parlay six big plays into a runaway victory. A slight tweaking of the scheme has paid huge dividends for the Buckeyes, who have allowed a nation’s-best one play of 40-plus yards this season. The return of Mike Hall Jr inside will fortify an already strong interior, and that could make things difficult for the Wolverines as they like to do their damage between the tackles. DC Jim Knowles has not blitzed as much this season as he did in 2022, but he could have a few surprises in store for this game.

Ohio State’s discipline and attention to detail has been paramount in the unit’s improvement, and that will need to continue as Michigan seldom beats itself. The move to a single-high safety has made a world of difference and has prevented teams from getting to the end zone after breaking through to the second level. It has also allowed Ohio State to change up its looks pre-snap, often showing blitz and then dropping into coverage. Knowles hasn't been afraid to bring a blitz off the edge from that additional safety, however, so don't be shocked if the Buckeyes get pressure with some unconventional methods.

The Buckeyes are eighth in the country in opponent’s third down conversions, at less than 30 percent, and if it can get Michigan into third-and-medium or third-and-long situations it will allow Knowles to get creative. Michigan has averaged just 4.8 yards per play in its last two games and hasn’t had a touchdown pass in its last three. If the Buckeyes can get Michigan off-schedule and away from the ground game, it will have a huge advantage.

MICHIGAN OFFENSE

Even without Harbaugh on the sideline Michigan has retained its identity as a physical team that wants to play bully ball. It ran the football on 32 consecutive plays against Penn State and was able to pick up some key first downs on the ground against Maryland late in the contest.

JJ McCarthy (Michigan Athletics)

Still, something looks off with the Wolverines offense. Quarterback JJ McCarthy has not been asked to do much – and while some UM fans will say that’s been a choice because the ground game has been so good, it could be more of a concern with leaky pass protection on the outside. Penn State abused Michigan’s tackles, and Maryland was able to bring pressure quite a bit, as well. McCarthy had his worst game of the season against the Terrapins, completing just 52 percent and throwing an interception. Michigan likes to work the boundary with out-breaking intermediate routes, but teams that have been able to bring pressure and get in McCarthy’s face on rollouts have had success. McCarthy has also had issues recently with the levels of the passing attack, hitting almost nothing deep and being forced to make a lot of underneath throws.

Michigan’s ground game has been steady but lacks explosiveness, and that could be a real problem against the Buckeyes. Blake Corum has been a hammer in the red zone, scoring 20 touchdowns, but has had only 10 percent of his runs go for more than 10 yards. Last year he was over 15 percent and looked smoother and faster than he has this season. Donovan Edwards was the hero of last year’s contest, scoring two long touchdowns, but has been largely a non-factor in 2023 with just three scores and a 3.4 yards per carry average.

The battle up front will be key as the strength of Michigan’s line is its interior. Zak Zinter is an All-America type at one guard, and Trevor Keegan has been consistent opposite him. Drake Nugent has been steady as a pivot, but there are worries at tackle as Karsen Barnhart and Myles Hinton have struggled in recent weeks. That could be a problem against OSU’s J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer off the edge. Michigan has been able to minimize those problems by going heavy, with as many as nine up front, and may need to do that against Ohio State to keep the chains moving.

UM receivers will have their work cut out against Ohio State’s Denzel Burke, who is playing at the All-America level of his freshman season, and the emerging Jordan Hancock on the opposite side. Michigan is 43^rd nationally in pass plays of 20-plus yards and 110^th in passes over 30-plus yards, and while Roman Wilson has shown to be a deep threat he has just one catch over the last two contests. Tight end Colston Loveland has been a favorite target for McCarthy, and he was a hero in last year’s contest and should be targeted frequently against the Buckeyes.

MICHIGAN DEFENSE

Michigan uses a lot of passive pressure – showing false looks pre-snap and a bunch of movement post-snap to confuse the quarterback – and also does a lot of coverage rotation on the back end out of that. This makes the quarterback think longer than he wants to, which allows the pressure to get home.

The Wolverines front six is as good as any in America, especially along the inside. Tackles Mason Graham, Kris Jenkins and Kenneth Grant are a lethal combo who all have quickness and power, and have destroyed offensive lines for most of the season. They can get upfield quickly, but even on the occasion when the offense wins, they have been excellent at staying in their gap and recovering to make the stop. They seldom get too wide or take bad angles, which is why they have been so effective. Michigan rotates as many as 10 guys up front during games, which has helped the starters stay fresh at crunch time.

There isn’t a ton of blitzing from this group because it can affect teams with just four. That leaves linebackers Junior Colson, Michael Barrett and Ernest Hausmann to roam free and find the football. Colson is a leader and the latest in a long line of stellar Michigan linebackers. He isn't flashy and his stats won't wow you, but he gets the job done. Barrett was nicked up against Maryland but appears ready to go, which is good news for Michigan as he has been one of the chief disruptors on the squad.

The secondary is led by corners Will Johnson and Mike Sainristil, two of the better cover guys in college football, and hard-hitting safety Rod Moore has shown that he deserves to be among the better safeties in the country. The active Wolverines have picked off 14 passes and lead the country with four Pick-6s, so McCord will need to make decisions quickly while Michigan attempts to flummox him with its rotations and coverage changes.

TALE OF THE TAPE

*POINTS PER DRIVE OFFENSE: Ohio State 3.01 (12), Michigan 3.84 (4)

*POINTS PER DRIVE DEFENSE: Ohio State .90 (2), Michigan .75 (1)

*NET POINTS PER DRIVE: Ohio State 2.11 (5), Michigan 3.09 (1)

*YARDS PER PLAY OFFENSE: Ohio State 6.74 (19), Michigan 7.03 (8)

*YARDS PER PLAY DEFENSE: Ohio State 4.36 (4), Michigan 3.59 (1)

*NET YARDS PER PLAY: Ohio State 2.38 (5), Michigan 3.45 (1)

POINTS PER PLAY OFFENSE: Ohio State .499 (T-15), Michigan .604 (5)

POINTS PER PLAY DEFENSE: Ohio State .145 (1), Michigan .155 (2)

YARDS PER POINT OFFENSE: Ohio State 12.7 (22), Michigan 10.4 (1)

YARDS PER POINT DEFENSE: Ohio State 26.8 (1), Michigan 26.2 (2)

TURNOVER MARGIN: Ohio State +1 (T-53), Michigan +12 (T-3)

RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: Ohio State 61.70 (64), Michigan 75.00 (T-11)

OPPONENT RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: Ohio State 45.45 (T-11), Michigan 33.33 (1)

THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: Ohio State 46.15 (20), Michigan 52.00 (4)

OPPONENT THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: Ohio State 29.19 (8), Michigan 30.34 (15)

SACK RATE: Ohio State 5.76 (T-78), Michigan 8.85 (13)

SACK RATE ALLOWED: Ohio State 4.86 (31), Michigan 4.69 (35)

#MISSED TACKLES: Ohio State 83, Michigan 56

SCORING OFFENSE: Ohio State 33.6 (24), Michigan 38.3 (11)

AVERAGE SCORING DEFENSE FACED (Points/Ranking): Ohio State 23.4/55, Michigan 23.4/55

SCORING DEFENSE: Ohio State 9.3 (2), Michigan 9.0 (1)

AVERAGE SCORING OFFENSE FACED (Points/Ranking): Ohio State 26.4/79, Michigan 24.3/87

*STATS TAKEN FROM BCFTOYS.COM  

# STATS TAKEN FROM PRO FOOTBALL FOCUS

 

WHAT WILL HAPPEN

The hype for this one has been off the charts, and understandably so. On one hand you have Michigan circling the wagons and seeing Ohio State as the enemy that started all of the distractions, and on the other you have the Buckeyes playing their best football but still having that small hint of doubt about whether it can finally get it done after consecutive disappointments.

Michigan has looked dominant for much of the season, though the last two games have been more slogs than slugfests. The Wolverines have looked disjointed on offense and have needed help from the defense and special teams to come away with the victory. McCarthy is still dangerous, especially given his mobility, but he’s looked increasingly uncomfortable when he’s had to make plays in the face of pressure.

Look for Ohio State to mix coverages, show pressure from inside before bringing it from the edge to prevent McCarthy from getting outside of the pocket. Ohio State’s coverage is not a concern, though it has been a bit sloppy in tackling – and that led to couple of Michigan’s scoring plays a year ago. If the Buckeyes can clean up that aspect, it’s hard to see Michigan making a ton of big plays. The ground game has been efficient, but Corum is not the same back as he was last season. He still loves to bounce things outside, so it is imperative that Ohio State have discipline in edge containment. The Buckeyes pass rush can get home against Michigan’s tackles, so Michigan may need to get creative and create some long drives that can control the clock.

McCord is squarely in the crosshairs for the Buckeyes, but he has not shied away from big moments. He came through against both Notre Dame and Penn State, but this is an entirely different animal. Michigan has feasted on turnovers, and if McCord cannot solve the Wolverines post-snap rotations and coverages it could be a long day. The Buckeyes have been clever in scheming to get Harrison open, so look for him to approach 15 touches on the afternoon. He will be the best player on the field for either team, so the Buckeyes would be wise to give him a chance to operate. Having said that, the real X-factor is Henderson in the backfield. Michigan has allowed just 2.96 yards per carry this season and has blown things up inside, which is Henderson’s preferred area of operation. Don’t be surprised if Ohio State runs him more on outside stretch and off-tackle plays, getting him one-on-one against a defender in space. His elusiveness and wiggle have meant big plays for the Buckeyes, and he appears primed to have a big game.

While Ohio State has the better top-to-bottom roster, Michigan has done a better job sticking to its identity. The Wolverines know who they are and what they do well, and seldom deviate from that. To this point they haven’t found a team that can stand up to that approach, though the Buckeyes appear to be the best-equipped to do so.

It’s been difficult to get a read on this one due to red flags on both sides.

For Michigan it’s the leaky pass protection coupled with Ohio State’s ability to affect the passer, as well as the lack of explosiveness in the ground game. If the Buckeyes can stay disciplined and rattle McCarthy early it could be enough to throw the entire offense into disarray. It’s unlikely that the busts of last year happen, so the Wolverines will need to get creative if they want to create chunk plays.

For Ohio State, an inability to finish drives in the red zone has been worrisome, but to this point hasn’t cost the Buckeyes because they have been the better team. Play calling has also been predictable, with runs coming on early downs in an attempt to get McCord settled in. Day may need to get more aggressive and have McCord get the ball to his playmakers underneath and allow them to make plays. If Day has anything in his bag of tricks it might not be the worst time to bring it out.

The feeling here is that this is a back-and-forth contest, with both teams landing haymakers at various points. OSU has averaged 28 points per game on the road this season, though that could be a tad inflated due to blowouts over Purdue and Rutgers. Michigan has been lethal at home, allowing just over seven points per contest in the Big House, and that’s hard to overlook.

With turmoil swirling around it, Michigan feels secure and confident playing in the confines of its home field, which could be just enough to provide an edge. This is a top-five matchup, and in 13 other such occasions between these two teams the home squad has come out on top 10 times. Not sure how it’s going to happen – a special teams play, a turnover that provides a short field, a late grind-it-out drive – but from this vantage point it looks like Michigan does just enough to stay unbeaten.

MICHIGAN 23, OHIO STATE  (+3.5) 21