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| Zac Thomas (Appalachian State Athletics) |
Appalachian State is the most talented team in the league, and its trio of QB Zac Thomas, RB Darrynton Evans and WR Corey Sutton are about as lethal as you'll find. It might be hard to top last year's 37.3 ppg tally, but Drinkwitz likely has some tricks up his sleeve to keep things going. The defense was lethal, allowing just 15.5 ppg, and just 3.4 yards per carry. LB Akeem Davis-Gaither is a beast and S Desmond Franklin is one of the best of a talented group of SBC defensive backs. App State will earn everything is gets this season, traveling to North Carolina and South Carolina.
Troy also welcomes in a new coach, Chip Lindsey, who takes over for now-West Virginia coach Neal Brown. Lindsey was QB coach at Troy in 2010 and was last the OC at Auburn, but he will cede playcalling duties. That's fine because the Trojans are a solid group (30.7 ppg), led by QB Kaleb Barker and talented RB BJ Smith (1186 yards, 13 TD). A good O-line returns mostly intact, while the defense welcomes back six starters. Chief among them LB Carlton Martial, who tallied 76 stops and 5.5 TFL in 2018. Troy had the nation's #2 special teams unit last year, and was able to affect field position. That will change this year as chief return men Cedarius Rookard and Marcus Jones are gone. Troy hosts Southern Miss early in an intriguing matchup, and goes to Missouri in October.
Defense is the name of the game for Georgia Southern, which may sound odd considering the Eagles scored over 30 ppg in 2018. Seven starters are back on the stop side, include one of the top CB duos in the entire country in Kindle Vildor (42 tackles, 4.5 TFL, 11 PBU, 4 INT) and Monquavion Brinson (67 tackles, 10 PBU). Throw at them at your own risk. The Eagles posted 26 sacks a year ago, their most since 2012, and could be better in year two of DC Scott Sloan. The offense may take a back seat to the D, but it's just fine, thanks. QB Shai Werts ran for 15 touchdowns and threw for 10 more (with zero INTs), and RBs Wesley Kennedy and JD King give the Eagles option attack three lethal weapons. Georgia Southern opens at LSU and also travels to Minnesota, but fortunately gets an off week before beginning league play.
Georgia State cratered last year (two wins) after winning seven and making a bowl game in 2017. Some of it was injuries, but a lot of it was youth. This year, with a more veteran squad, the Panthers should be much more competitive. A solid recruiting class and a year of maturity should help the offense, which is led by dual threat QB Dan Ellington (12 TD passing, 5 rushing) and has a nice receiving corps but currently lacks a home run threat. LB Ed Curney led the team with 81 tackles a year ago and leads a unit that must get better against the run (6.6 YPC) and at forcing turnovers (-8, only six INTs, among the lowest figures in the nation).
It was a nice forward move by Coastal Carolina last year, winning five games and flirting with bowl eligibility right to the end. With 15 returning starters, there could be more of the same, but the Chanticleers are one of the least experienced teams in the conference. Look for RB CJ Marable (719 yards, 6.1 YPC) to make a leap this year as CC focuses on the run game. Quarterback is a bit murky as Fred Payton and Bryce Carpenter both played last year, each showing flashes in their freshman seasons. The defense has to improve if Coastal is to make the postseason. The Chanticleers allowed 33.2 ppg, including 6.5 against the run. A solid recruiting class could help, and LB Silas Kelly is usually near the action.
An influx of JUCO talent makes Arkansas State a prohibitive favorite in the West, though the Red Wolves have a nice returning nucleus to work with. RB Marcel Murray ran for nearly 900 yards and scored eight TDs, showing nice balance and explosiveness through the hole. Look for him to be challenged by JUCO AA Ryan Graham. Kirk Merritt was a revelation at receiver, catching 83 passes and scoring seven times. It's on D where the Red Wolves should be really nasty, though. Angry after allowing 25.6 ppg, NB Darreon Jackson, LB Tajhea Chambers and mammoth (6-1, 340) NG Forrest Merrill will step up their production this season. Jerry Jacobs (4 INT, 8 PBU) and BJ Edmonds are part of a very good secondary. ASU goes to Georgia in mid September and must go to Troy later in the month.
An embarrassment of backfield riches is what Louisiana has, with the three-headed monster of Trey Ragas, Elijah Mitchell and Raymond Calais. Ragas is the lead dog who gets the tough yards while Mitchell is explosive (6.7 YPC). Both are also good receivers out of the backfield, and Calais is lethal as a return man. They will operate behind an offensive line that returns all five starters, including all-SBC candidate Kevin Dotson at guard. LB Jacques Boudreaux (93 tackles, 3.5 TFL) leads a defense that allowed 34.2 ppg and had trouble getting foes off the field (45.1 third down conversions). Mississippi State and Ohio U are among the challenges on the schedule, which includes Georgia Southern, App State and Arkansas State in a four-week span.
Matt Viator made some progress last year at Louisiana-Monroe, guiding the Warhawks to a 6-6 mark after consecutive four-win seasons. The offense has to improve (26.6 ppg) if ULM wants to continue its ascension, and QB Caleb Evans is a nice start. Accounting for 26 total TDs, Evans is steady and has gotten better with his decision making (INTs down from 16 to 12 a year ago), though his receiving corps is new. The offensive line returns all five starters, so Evans should have time to operate. The defense was a mess, allowing 31.8 ppg and finishing 125th in turnover margin, at -12. Eight starters are back, with LB Chase Day (48 tackles, 5.5 TFL) the best of them. Viator recruited the JUCOs hard, which could help the cause. Trips to Florida State and Iowa State will challenge, as will a home date with Memphis and road trips to App State and Georgia Southern. This may be a better team that last year's, but the record may not show it.
It won't be easy for Jake Spavital in his inaugural season at Texas State, but there is a little optimism for the former West Virginia DC as he returns 10 starters from a group that was aggressive but inexperienced last year. Bryan London (109 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 6 PBU) is a machine at middle linebacker, and running mate Frankie Griffin added 71 stops and 6 TFL. The secondary returns intact, but the D-line must improve. This is a solid group that should thrive under Spavital's guidance. The offense was a dud, averaging 19.8 ppg and scoring seven points in each of the final three contests of 2018. JUCO transfer Gresch Jensen could be the answer at quarterback, and though there is a deep stable of backs none stand out. Jeremiah Haydel has shown big play potential at receiver. Texas State opens at Texas A&M and must go to Arkansas State and App State late in the season.
South Alabama is still looking for its first FBS winning season, coming closest in 2013 (6-6), 2014 (6-7, bowl berth) and 2016 (6-7, bowl berth). It could a struggle again as the Jaguars are one of the least experienced teams in the nation and must face Nebraska and Memphis in non-league play. Tra Minter is a bright spot out of the backfield (801 yards, 4 TD) and is a weapon in the return game ((15.2 PR, 1 TD). WR Kawaan Baker could break out if the Jags get any kind of quarterback play from sophomore Cephus Johnson, who had a rough time of things in limited action. The defense allowed nearly 39 ppg but brings in a ton of JUCO talent, so it should be better. CB Jalen Thompson is a lone bright spot on D, netting 3 picks and 8 PBU a year ago. JUCO Devin Rockette joins him at the other corner spot, and he has the speed to stay with receivers. Steve Campbell is building the right way, but this is not the year where results will be realized.
SUN BELT PREDICTIONS
EAST
1 Appalachian State (11-2, 7-1)*R
2 Troy (8-4, 6-2)*
3 Georgia Southern (7-5, 5-3)*
4 Georgia State (4-8, 3-5)
5 Coastal Carolina (4-8, 2-6)
WEST
1 Arkansas State (10-3, 7-1)*
2 Louisiana (7-5, 4-4)
3 UL Monroe (4-8, 3-5)
4 Texas State (3-9, 2-6)
5 South Alabama (2-10, 1-7)
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Appalachian State over Arkansas State
* Bowl participant
R CFB Focus Top 40 team
ALL-SUN BELT
FIRST TEAM OFFENSE
QB Zac Thomas/Appalachian State
RB Darrynton Evans/Appalachian State
RB BJ Smith/Troy
WR Corey Sutton/Appalachian State
WR Kirk Merritt/Arkansas State
WR Ja'Marcus Bradley/Louisiana
TE Collin Reed/Appalachian State
OT Victor Johnson/Appalachian State
OT JL Gaston/Troy
OG Kevin Dotson/Louisiana
OG Kirk Kelley/Troy
C Jacob Still/Arkansas State
FIRST TEAM DEFENSE
DE William Bradley-King/Arkansas State
DE Tyree Turner/South Alabama
DT Forrest Merrill/Arkansas State
DT Chauncey Manac/Louisiana
LB Akeem Davis-Gaither/Appalachian State
LB Bryan London/Texas State
LB Carlton Martial/Troy
CB Kindle Vildor/Georgia Southern
CB Jerry Jacobs/Arkansas State
S Desmond Franklin/Appalachian State
S Tyler Murray/Troy
FIRST TEAM SPECIALISTS
K Tyler Bass/Georgia Southern
P Cody Grace/Arkansas State
RS Tra Minter/South Alabama
SECOND TEAM OFFENSE
QB Shai Werts/Georgia Southern
RB Elijah Mitchell/Louisiana
RB Marcel Murray/Arkansas State
WR Kawaan Baker/South Alabama
WR Tray Eafford/Troy
WR Omar Bayless/Arkansas State
TE Isaiah Likely/Coastal Carolina
OT Robert Hunt/Louisiana
OT Hunter Atkinson/Georgia State
OG TJ Fiailoa/UL Monroe
OG Tristan Crowder/Troy
C Noah Hannon/Appalachian State
SECOND TEAM DEFENSE
DE Tarron Jackson/Coastal Carolina
DE Raymond Johnson/Georgia Southern
DT Ty Phillips/Georgia Southern
DT Dontae Wilson/Georgia State
LB Tajhea Chambers/Arkansas State
LB Frankie Griffin/Texas State
LB Jordan Fehr/Appalachian State
CB Monquavion Brinson/Georgia Southern
CB Jalen Thompson/South Alabama
S Darreon Jackson/Arkansas State
S Anthony J Taylor/Texas State
SECOND TEAM SPECIALISTS
K Massimo Biscardi/Coastal Carolina
P Clayton Howell/Appalachian State
RS Raymond Calais/Louisiana
OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Zac Thomas
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Kindle Vildor
COACH OF THE YEAR: Eli Drinkwitz/Appalachian State
TOP NEWCOMER: WR Reggie Todd/Troy (JUCO)
TOP FIVE GAMES (NONCONFERENCE)
Georgia Southern at LSU (Aug 31)
Arkansas State at Georgia (Sept 14)
Southern Miss at Troy (Sept 14)
Appalachian State at North Carolina (Sept 21)
Appalachian State at South Carolina (Nov. 9)
TOP FIVE GAMES (CONFERENCE)
Arkansas State at Troy (Sept 28)
Appalachian State at Louisiana (Oct 9)
Georgia Southern at Appalachian State (Oct 31)
Georgia Southern at Troy (Nov 9)
Appalachian State at Troy (Nov. 29)
TOP FIVE INCOMING FRESHMEN
LB Brendon Harrington/Appalachian State
CB Reddy Stewart/Troy
OG Javonte McGriff/Georgia Southern
NG Tahji Gilbert/Georgia State
S Kevin Anderson/Texas State
TOP FIVE TRANSFERS
S Donald Rutledge/Georgia Southern (Savannah State)
LB Kyle Wright/Georgia State (North Carolina)
WR Sam Denmark/Coastal Carolina (Virginia Tech)
WR Tre'Veon Hamilton/South Alabama (Memphis)
RB Charles Strong/Troy (Texas A&M)
TOP FIVE JUCO TRANSFERS
WR Reggie Todd/Troy
QB Gresch Jensen/Texas State
CB Devin Rockette/South Alabama
RB Ryan Graham/Arkansas State
DE Aaron Donkor/Arkansas State
