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| Willie Fritz comes to Houston with a reputation for winning |
Barring some unexpected firings or retirements, the college football coaching carousel appears to have come to a halt. What does that mean? Why, time for grades, of course.
This is a long-term prognosis, not necessarily an immediate turnaround, in the moment rating. Some will look good right now and can give a temporary jolt to a program, but may not have staying power. Others may struggle early before getting it going. We favor long-term stability over quick turnarounds, and that's how our grading system will be formulated.
We aren't including Northwestern coach David Braun because he coached the Wildcats for the entire 2023 season after Pat Fitzgerald was fired amid allegations of hazing within the program. Braun won Big Ten Coach of the Year honors after guiding the Wildcats to a 7-5 campaign.
TOP SHELF
Willie Fritz/Houston: An offensive guru. Fritz has won everywhere he's been, including winning 23 games the last two seasons at Tulane. High caliber athletes should want to play in Fritz's system, so the Cougars could be a player in the new-look Big 12.
Bronco Mendenhall/New Mexico: He knows the lay of the land, having been an assistant for the Lobos, and is a consummate winner as a head coach. He has been a master at developing players, so look for the Lobos to be better in short order.
Jonathan Smith/Michigan State: The Spartans finally get serious about being good again, and Smith has already shown his ability to secure talent by nabbing some impressive portal additions. If you can win at Oregon State you can win in East Lansing. MSU will be physical and should be built the right way, with an eye on development.
Jon Sumrall/Tulane: A former SEC assistant who had a previous stint at the Green Wave's DC, Sumrall is an up-and-comer who should be able to keep up the momentum in New Orleans. Following Fritz won't be easy, but Sumrall has the chops to keep Tulane at the top of the American Conference.
VERY GOOD
Curt Cignetti/Indiana: We debated about putting Cignetti one level up, but it's just SO hard to win consistently in Bloomington. He's also 63 years old, so you wonder just how long he'll be on the sideline. He's never had a losing season in his head coaching career, and he should be able to breathe life into a stagnant Hoosiers program.
Mike Elko/Texas A&M: After a slew of failed offensive hires, the admins went with a guy who has a defensive bent. That could prove to be wise as Elko should foster a better culture than predecessor Jimbo Fisher had. It may be difficult to win the SEC, but the floor will be higher than it was under Fisher and the Aggies should be competitive more consistently under Elko.
Manny Diaz/Duke: He revamped his image as Penn State's defensive coordinator and earned another shot at being a head coach. This seems a better fit than the glare that was Miami, and he can once again hang his hat on defense, and his familiarity with the ACC can't hurt. Don't expect too much of a dip for the Blue Devils.
Sean Lewis/San Diego State: If you can win at Kent State, you have a lot going for you. Lewis is a great offensive mind who should bring the Aztecs offense into the 21st century, and he's in a fertile recruiting area so the talent level should get better.
Fran Brown/Syracuse: The only new hire who didn't come from a coordinator or previous head coaching position. Nonetheless, Brown is a top-notch recruiter who should boost the talent level for the Orange very quickly. Learning under Kirby Smart the past few seasons will only help, and Brown has the look of a future star.
SOLID
Bob Chesney/James Madison: He steps into a great situation at JMU as the Dukes have won 19 games in two seasons in FBS, though there could be questions about his recruiting ability as he comes in from FCS Holy Cross. Has the look of a burgeoning star, but the Sun Belt is not an easy place in which to win.
Jeff Choate/Nevada: He's been at high-profile Power 5 programs and had a four-year stint as head coach at Montana State, where he was wildly successful. He is stepping into a pretty barren situation at Nevada, but he is high energy and likely won't be overwhelmed by the situation given his experience at the top level of college football.
Gerad Parker/Troy: He comes over from Notre Dame, where he was offensive coordinator, and seems to have the requisite chops to be a leader at a Group of Five program that is showing itself to be among the best in college football. Troy has been built on defense, but Parker should make the Trojans offense more explosive. A bit of an out of the box hire, which may be just what Troy needs.
Scotty Walden/UTEP: El Paso has historically been a tough place to win, but Walden has a few things in his favor: he's young (34), has an excellent offensive mind and he's a Texas native who has relationships in the state. There could be worse deficits to have when talking over a program such as this one.
Spencer Danielson/Boise State: The players seem to really like him, which is a plus. He has a high-energy approach, which is a bit of a change from previous head coaches. He's the latest in the "elevate from within" pattern that Boise has used, going back to Dan Hawkins and including Andy Avalos, whom Danielson replaces. Keeping the program filled with high-level talent will be paramount, and right now that's the only unknown.
OK, BUT ...
Jeff Lebby/Mississippi State: The Bulldogs are going back to the offensive side of things with this hire, and it should help in the short-term. He's been OC at UCF, Ole Miss and Oklahoma, so the bonafides are there. The program is the issue -- there aren't enough built-in advantages to make this an easy long-term success, so Lebby will be challenged and may need to provide a big culture change if he wants to win consistently.
Jay Sawvell/Wyoming: It won't be easy following Craig Bohl, but he has been with the program for four seasons and knows how things work. He's also been a DC under Jerry Kill, Dave Clawson and Bohl, so he's worked under some of the best in the game. First-time head coaches can be dicey, but Sawvell isn't flying blind here.
Trent Bray/Oregon State: This is one of the tougher jobs in America, especially now with all of the uncertainty surrounding conference affiliation and the fact he doesn't have head coaching experience. That said, he knows the program, the players seem to like him and he understands what it takes to win in a place such as Corvallis. Whether or not he does it remains to be seen.
DOING THIS AGAIN IN THREE YEARS
Derek Mason/Middle Tennessee: His head coaching stint at Vanderbilt was nothing short of disastrous, so maybe he can reinvent himself in Murfreesboro. The defense should be good, few question his acumen on that side of the ball. What will the offense look like? Will he be able to recruit well enough to make an upward move in Conference USA? There isn't much excitement or buzz around this hire, so he will need to prove himself to the fanbase. His P5 background could help.
Bryant Vincent/Louisiana-Monroe: He has some background in the Sun Belt, serving as OC and interim head coach at UAB. He worked under Bill Clark, which also counts for something, and his offense at New Mexico in 2023 had some explosiveness. Still, this is one of the tallest tasks in college football as the Warhawks have had just one winning season since joining FBS in 1994. He talked with enthusiasm at his opening press conference, but turning that into results is another matter entirely.
