CFB Focus National Championship Preview -- LSU vs Clemson

It's finally here.

The 2019 college football season plays its swan song in Bayou Country, at the Mercedes Benz Superdome in New Orleans, and two hungry packs of Tigers will look to etch their name in the history books.

The high-powered offense of top-ranked LSU, which has proven to be mostly unstoppable this season, takes on the defending national champion Clemson, which is playing the underdog card despite winning 29 games in a row. Both squads are filled with talent, and led by quarterbacks who have shown they won't be awed by the big stage.

In Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence we have the top two QBs in FBS when pressured, combining for 33 TDs and just one INT in those situations. Each has been remarkably efficient down the stretch and has come up big when needed, so getting them to flinch could be a huge task.

A win for Clemson would be the third national title in four years, and would cement Dabo Swinney's crew as the most lethal dynasty in the game, as well as its top whiner. The "aw shucks" stuff played well when Clemson was still relatively new, but it has grow beyond tired.

LSU played for the crown in 2011 but hasn't won it since 2007, and a victory would stamp Ed Orgeron as one of the more redemptive coaching stories in recent memory, He wasn't wanted by Ole Miss or USC, and had some anxious moments in Baton Rouge, too. But now Coach Eaux has a chance to elevate into the upper tier of college football by winning the whole thing.

The stage is set for another down to the wire contest, and there is only one certainty -- the Tigers will finish the night as champions.

CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP (New Orleans)
(1) LSU Tigers (14-0) vs (3) Clemson Tigers (14-0)
BETTING NUMBERS: LSU -5.5, TOTAL 68.5

LSU TIGERS
BOWL RECORD: 27-23-1
BOWL RECORD vs Clemson: 2-1
RECORD vs Clemson: 2-1
AP/BCS/CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS:  3 (1958/2003/2007)
JEFF SAGARIN SOS: 7
RUSHING OFFENSE: 4.86 YPC (32ND)
PASSING OFFENSE: 10.7 YPA (6TH)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 7.91 YPP (2ND)
SCORING OFFENSE: 48.9 (1ST)
POINTS PER PLAY: 0.649 (2ND)
POINTS PER POSSESSION: 3.767 (3RD)
THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 50.89 (4TH)
RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 78.57 (5TH)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS: 102 (2ND)
TIMES SACKED PER ATTEMPT: 0.059 (T-61ST)
RUSHING DEFENSE: 3.60 YPC (28TH)
PASSING DEFENSE: 6.4 YPA (T-20TH)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 5.05 YPP (27TH)
SCORING DEFENSE: 21.6 (T-28TH)
POINTS ALLOWED PER PLAY: 0.319 (T-24TH)
POINTS ALLOWED PER POSSESSION: 1.633 (T-17TH)
OPP THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 30.69 (T-9TH)
OPP RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 63.16 (T-84TH)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS ALLOWED: 59 (T-69TH)
SACKS PER ATTEMPT: 0.073 (T-36TH)
TURNOVER MARGIN: +9 (T-13TH)

OFFENSIVE OUTLOOK: Those who haven't been living under a rock know just how lethal LSU's offense has been this season. A lot of it has been the masterful direction by Heisman winning QB Joe Burrow, who gets it done with a clean pocket AND when pressured, sporting the nation's highest grade in both categories according to Pro Football Focus. The Bayou Bengals are top three in scoring, points per play and points per possession and really haven't been slowed down all season. It isn't only Burrow, but the talent around him and the scheme. Joe Brady has been adept at finding mismatches and exploiting them, using the speed of his athletes on quick slants, hitches, crosses and posts. Ja'Marr Chase is the Biletnikoff Award winner and a stud, but Justin Jefferson had four first half touchdowns in the semifinal against Oklahoma. Terrace Marshall is a big target who can run after the catch, and TE Thaddeus Moss has the versatiilty to line up out wide, in the slot or close to the line. If the receivers dont get you, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire will. A powerful, aggressive runner, Edwards-Helaire loves getting the ball at crunch time and plays his best in the biggest games. He had just two carries against Oklahoma but will be used much more here, especially in the passing game. One concern for LSU could be Clemson's relentless pressure. Brent Venables crew has pressured the quarterback on 43 percent of their dropbacks, and has a nation's best 19 percent turnover rate. If Clemson can win that battle and limit LSU's possession it has a really good shot at winning.
DEFENSIVE OUTLOOK: LSU has gotten better on D as it has gotten healthier, and should bring its best unit to the table. LSU is strongest in its linebacker group, which is led by Patrick Queen and Jacob Phillips. Both have the speed to track down running backs as well as an abiilty to defend the pass, so Clemson may need to get creative with its playcalling. A fascinating matchup looms in the secondary as freshman CB Derek Stingley and running mate Kristian Fulton go up against Clemson's Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross, who are both 6-4 and can go up and get jump balls, and may have a physicality edge if LSU tries to press off the line. LSU will need to be on guard for runs by Trevor Lawrence, a facet of his game that really wasn't shown until the Fiesta Bowl. The specter of Travis Etienne in the backfield means that if LSU sells out too much to stop him there could be some running lanes for Lawrence. LSU has not been good when teams have gotten close to the end zone, sitting just 84th in red zone touchdown percentage (63.16). The Bayou Bengals have also given up a decent amount of explosive plays, so it will be interesting to see if Clemson can hit some shots downfield.

CLEMSON TIGERS
BOWL RECORD: 25-20
BOWL RECORD vs LSU: 1-2
RECORD vs LSU: 1-2
AP/BCS/CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS: 3 (1981/2016/2018)
JEFF SAGARIN SOS: 56
RUSHING OFFENSE: 6.41 YPC (1ST)
PASSING OFFENSE: 8.7 YPA (T-12TH)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 7.46 YPP (4TH)
SCORING OFFENSE: 45.3 (4TH)
POINTS PER PLAY: 0.618 (4TH)
POINTS PER POSSESSION: 3.461 (5TH)
THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 46.47 (17TH)
RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 75.38 (9TH)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS: 94 (7TH)
TIMES SACKED PER ATTEMPT: 0.031 (T-5TH)
RUSHING DEFENSE: 3.13 YPC (9TH)
PASSING DEFENSE: 5.5 YPA (1ST)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 4.16 YPP (2ND)
SCORING DEFENSE: 11.5 (1ST)
POINTS ALLOWED PER PLAY: 0.166 (1ST)
POINTS ALLOWED PER POSSESSION: 0.822 (1ST)
OPP THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 31.48 (13TH)
OPP RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 35,71 (2ND)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS ALLOWED: 35 (T-1ST)
SACKS PER ATTEMPT: 0.104 (6TH)
TURNOVER MARGIN: +16 (T-5TH)

OFFENSIVE OUTLOOK: It was pretty obvious to most observers that Ohio State had a talent advantage over Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl, but that wasn't enough to overcome the heart and desire of the Tigers. Lawrence seemed rejuvenated after leaving for a few moments following the targeting penalty by OSU's Shaun Wade, and was nothing short of brilliant in leading Clemson back from a 16-0 deficit. People tout Etienne's speed, but he is a lot more physical than his size shows. He led the nation in forced missed tackles, and is a home run threat whenever he touches the ball Don't be surprised if Clemson lures LSU in with the run game before using Etienne as a weapon in the air attack. Higgins and Ross present size matchup issues for LSU's secondary, which may need to play a bit more nickel than usual. The defense gets the headlines, but the offense has done some heavy lifting of its own, and ranks in the fop five in both points per play and points per possession.
DEFENSIVE OUTLOOK: Venables is a master with time to prepare, but even he may be flummoxed as to how to stop this high-octane LSU attack. There will no doubt be a lot of nickel and dime packages, which would seem to help LSU's running game. But Clemson does have a wild card in Isaiah Simmons, the most versatile defender in college football and a guy who can line up all over the place -- as a standup linebacker, over the slot, out wide in coverage and at a safety position. He never has to come off the field, and adds an athletic dimesion that LSU hasn't seen this season. It's a big advantage being able to keep him in on every defensive package, and he can be a big-time game changer. Tyler Davis is the one pass rusher LSU needs to worry about, as he netted 5.5 sacks and created havoc inside. Clemson's defense is tops in points per play and points per possession, and has been nails in the red zone -- just ask Ohio State. The Buckeyes had to settle for field goals on three occasions in the Fiesta Bowl, and punching any of those in could have made for a different outcome. Clemson's secondary is a veteran unit that likes to get physical -- sometimes too much so. But it will need to do that if it wants to throw LSU's passing attack off balance.

OVERVIEW: This one should be fun, and will be a chess match between LSU OC Brady and Clemson DC Venables, Both have rightly gained reputations as innovators, but it could come down to which unit shows the most toughness. Burrow has been great all year, and Lawrence since mid-October, so you don't worry about the guys handling the football. You do worry about discipline and untimely penalties and turnovers, which always have a hand in shaping the outcome. Neither team is dynamic in special teams, though LSU has excellent specialists in PK Cade York, who hasn't missed inside 40 yards this season, and P Zach Von Rosenberg, who has had just seven punts returned this season and has placed 18 inside the 20. There is something to be said for offense, and LSU has it in spades. It creates mismatches, has an accurate quarterback who thrives in the spotlight and a run game that is efficient enough to keep the chains moving, even if it lacks a consistent big play threat. But there is also something to be admired about a defending champion with the ability to click things into high gear when necessary, Nothing seems to bother Clemson, there is no panic, and Lawrence hasn't lost a game as a collegian. Both signal-callers are extremely tough, so it could be as simple as which one flinches first -- if at all. Defense has been the calling card of a majority of the last 10 national champions, and that edge has to go squarely to Dabo's crew.

Auburn gave the defensive blueprint on how to slow down LSU -- get aggressive up the middle and play sticky coverage on the wideouts, who have less room to operate when in the red zone. Auburn held LSU to a field goal and a turnover on downs (after getting to the Auburn 1), and forced two turnovers when LSU was inside the AU 30. Clemson has better athletes on defense than Auburn, so it may just be able to pull this off. Of course, that was before Burrow really started tearing things up, but the way he's played since November -- a stunning 25-2 TD-INT ratio -- indicates he may just be impervious to the bad game.

Clemson is looking to join Nebraska (1994-97) and Alabama (2009-12) as the only programs to win three national titles in four years, and in a game that lives up to the hype but is a bit lower scoring than a lot of people are forecasting, the experience, will and tenacity of the defending champion comes through.

Clemson 34, LSU 33