Friday, November 29, 2019

College Football Whiparound Week 14

Ohio State ventures to the Big House for a high stakes showdown with rival Michigan on Saturday (Tim Fuller/USAToday)

While Thanksgiving itself is great, the days that follow are even better -- and not just because you can get a TV for $300 or gorge on leftovers all weekend. No, it's because there is a copious amount of football, including games on Friday that will make people put down their Black Friday lists and pay attention.

The weekend is highlighted by the top rivalry in all of college football -- Ohio State-Michigan -- as well as other great traditional games. There's the Iron Bowl, Bedlam, Apple Cup, Palmetto Bowl ... all kinds of intriguing contests. Some are for bragging rights only, but many will have a hand in shaping the playoff picture and the New Years Day bowl landscape.

Enjoy the games, and save me a piece of pumpkin pie.

SPOTLIGHT GAME
(1) Ohio State at (13) Michigan: The similarities to 1969 are eerie -- an Ohio State team ranked No. 1, a team that has cruised all season and looked unstoppable ventures to Ann Arbor to face a UM squad that's an afterthought in the league race. Buckeyes fans remember what happened in 1969, as first-year coach Bo Schembechler sprung one of the greatest upsets in the series history, winning 24-12 and denying Ohio State its second straight national title. Flash forward to 2019, and OSU is sitting at the top of the mountain, ready to take on a Wolverines team that has been inconsistent but which has also played its best football of the season the last month or so. Don Brown's defense has finally found itself, and if the offense can generate any kind of running attack the home team can win the game. Since 2000, the team that has won the rushing battle has won the game. Both teams are top 15 in rushing D, but the Buckeyes are fourth in rushing offense while Michigan is 76th. 
RANKED AND FILE
(5) Alabama at (15) Auburn: This latest Iron Bowl has some interesting storylines -- can Mac Jones stand up to a really good Auburn defense? Can the Crimson Tide win impressively enough to make a statement to the CFP committee? Can Auburn actually beat a very good SEC team? The Tigers lost by three to LSU and by a touchdown to Georgia, and even an 11-point loss to Florida was close until the final minutes. So if Derrick Brown and the Auburn D can keep it close, maybe Bo Nix can make a play in the closing moments that gives Auburn a win for the third time in the last four times at home against the Tide. 
(12) Wisconsin at (8) Minnesota: The most played rivalry in FBS -- this is the 129th meeting -- gets a rare moment in the spotlight as the winner wins the Big Ten West and clinches a berth in the league championship game. The series is as close as one can get -- 60-60-8 -- but the Gophers haven't won at home since 2003, and have won just once overall in that span (last year's 37-15 blowout in Madison). Tanner Morgan and his standout receiving crew will try to get the jump on Jonathan Taylor and the Badgers muscle, and fans may for once be treated to a close game. Not since 2009's 31-28 Badgers win has this game been decided by less than 10 points.
(7) Oklahoma at (21) Oklahoma State: The Sooners have had the upper hand lately, winning four straight and 14 of the last 16 contests, including seven of the last eight in Stillwater. This is usually an explosive affair, as the winner has scored more than 35 points five years in a row. The Cowboys are at a disadvantage without freshman quarterback Spencer Sanders, who went out for the season a couple of weeks ago with injury, but Oklahoma hasn't exactly been playing inspiring football the last month. The Sooners lost to Kansas State, then beat Iowa State, Baylor and TCU by a combined eight points, and have already clinched a spot in the Big 12 title game. 
(19) Cincinnati at (18) Memphis (Friday): The Group of Five automatic berth to the New Years Six will likely be decided here, and this could be a preview of the American title game if form holds. Memphis has won three straight over the Bearcats, but Cincinnati has taken three of the last five in the series as the visitor. Both teams have horses in the backfield -- Michael Warren for Cincinnati, Kenneth Gainwell for Memphis -- but the Tigers ability to throw the ball, as well as its elite special teams, could tip the scales to their favor. Cincinnati has been a good road team this season, going 4-1, the lone loss coming at Ohio State, while Memphis can count Ole Miss, Navy and SMU among the foes it has vanquished at home.
OTHER RANKED GAMES
Texas A&M at (2) LSU: Who among us will ever forget last year's classic seven-OT thriller, won 74-72 by the Aggies? This year is a different story, as A&M has struggled to gain footing while LSU has blitzed nearly every opposing defense it has faced. TAMU is facing a No. 1 team for the third time this season, which sets a record -- unfortunately the result of the first two is probably the same as this one is going to be. 
(3) Clemson at South Carolina: The Palmetto Bowl is the final step for Clemson in its quest to finish with an unblemished regular season, while the Gamecocks would love nothing more than to upset the Tigers dreams, much as they did Georgia's. Clemson has won five in a row, and just once in that span (2015) was the game within a touchdown. 
(4) Georgia at Georgia Tech: Another edition of Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate, in which Tech hasn't won at home since 1999, and only four times overall in that span. The Bulldogs stifling defense will look to shut down a Tech offense that has been inconsistent and turnover plagued (19 lost). Georgia is aiming for a berth in the College Football Playoff and knows it will need to win the SEC title game to get in, but that will be a moot point if it can't knock off the Yellow Jackets.
Colorado at (6) Utah: The Utes may not have any signature victories, but they have been demolishing foes the way a superior team should, and are giving the CFP committee something to really think about. Quarterback Tyler Huntley and running back Zack Moss are two of the best at their position in FBS and should be able to keep the Buffs D back on its heels, and the Utes defense has NFL talent at every level and should prove to be as ornery as usual. Win here and it's on to the Pac-12 title game against Oregon, a chance for Utah to make a true statement.
(9) Baylor at Kansas: Baylor has won eight in a row over the Jayhawks, and four straight in Lawrence. With an outside shot at a CFP still in play, it's a good bet the Bears won't overlook Kansas, which has been all right on offense but horrendous on defense (101st nationally). Running back Pooka Williams has been at his best against the best teams, going for over 100 yards against Iowa State, Oklahoma and Texas. He will be the Jayhawks best hope of breaking off explosive plays. Charlie Brewer doesn't get a ton of pub for Baylor, but has been one of the better passers in FBS (19 TDs, nearly 67 percent completions). Denzel Mims has been a scoring machine at receiver (11 TDs) and could cause major problems for a Kansas defense that has allowed 21 scores through the air.
Rutgers at (10) Penn State: The less said about this one the better. The Nittany Lions are coming off a road loss at Ohio State, a game where they played opportunistic football but couldn't move the ball consistently. That will change against a Scarlet Knights team that's among the worst in America. While championships are out of the question, double digit wins are still in play for Penn State. 
Florida State at (11) Florida: Some call this the Sunshine Showdown, but most will call it a mismatch as the Gators aim for a 10th victory while the Seminoles merely aim for respectability. Florida State has won four in a row in Gainesville, which brings hope to an otherwise forgettable season -- one that saw second year head coach Willie Taggart jettisoned. Dan Mullen has the Gators set up for the long haul, and they should vie for the SEC East crown for the foreseeable future, and this game would be a great state bookend to the season-opening victory over Miami. Florida State is already bowl eligible but should put a ton of effort into this one, as many players would love interim coach Odell Haggins to retain the job. 
Oregon State at (14) Oregon: This could be an especially spirited edition of the Civil War, as much is on the line for both teams. For the Beavers, a win means bowl eligibility, while the Ducks could still be in line for a Rose Bowl berth. OSU has won only once since 2007, and most of the games haven't been competitive. Jake Luton and a gifted bunch of Oregon State receivers will go up against one of the best secondaries in the nation, led by Jevon Holland. 
(16) Notre Dame at Stanford: The Irish have played some of their best football since losing big at Michigan, and on paper this would appear to be an easy game. But Stanford has won five in a row against ND at home, and could provide a stiffer than expected challenge to the visitors. If it's going to happen Stanford will need to score more than the 18 points it's averaged in the last three contests -- all losses. Davis Mills has shown a live arm but has a tendency to take chances, and against a Notre Dame defense that ranks top 20 nationally and is tied for third in takeaways, that could be a recipe for disaster. 
(17) Iowa at Nebraska (Friday): The Hawkeyes have won four straight in the series and have taken the last three in Lincoln, but are just 2-2 on the road in 2019, averaging just over 15 points per game away from Kinnick Stadium. Nebraska ended a four game losing skid with a big win over Maryland last weekend, and should be jacked for a game that could provide bowl eligibility. Dedrick Mills has averaged nearly 8 yards per carry the last two games and will be a big part of any Cornhuskers success.
(20) Boise State at Colorado State (Friday): The Broncos are down to their third string quarterback, but have yet to truly miss a beat. Boise has wrapped up the Mountain West Mountain division but are still in contention for the Group of Five automatic NY6 bid. Colorado State has lost all eight meetings, only two of which have been by a single score. There has been talk of Mike Bobo losing his job as head coach, so you have to wonder what the mindset will be for the Rams. Wideout Warren Jackson has been one of the few bright spots in Fort Collins, scoring seven TDs and amassing over 1,000 yards. 
(23) Iowa State at Kansas State: The Cyclones haven't won in Manhattan since 2004, and have lost 10 of the last 11 in the series. Brock Purdy and Breece Hall have been the offensive stars in the last month for ISU, so if Kansas State can't stop them it will be a long day at the office. KSU is third in the country in opponents third down percentage, not by doing anything fancy but by staying sound in its responsibilities. The Wildcats are a good tackling team, so Iowa State will need to hit some downfield stuff if it wants to win back-to-back contests against KSU for the first time since 2004-05. 
(24) Virginia Tech at Virginia (Friday): Cavaliers fans have to wonder if their side is ever again hold the Commonwealth Cup -- losing 15 straight in a series will do that. There have been a handful of close calls (five games decided by four points or fewer), but the Hokies are now inside UVA's head. It doesn't hurt that Tech has won six of its last seven, and the only loss was a 21-20 setback against Notre Dame. Virginia's pedestrian offense will need to find some big plays against a solid Tech D if it wants to end the long string of misery.
(25) Appalachian State at Troy (Friday): The Mountaineers would love to close out the season with 11 victories in Eli Drinkwitz's first season as head coach, and with Troy being just average at stopping the run that 11th win could be well within reach. Zac Thomas has run the offense with precision and Darrynton Evans has been an under the radar star in the backfield. Troy is playing for bowl eligibility but has dropped three of its last five home finales. If Kaleb Barker can't put some pressure on App State throwing the ball the Trojans have no shot to win
TAKE FIVE (Games Featuring Unranked Teams)
Washington State at Washington (Friday): The mortal enemies vie once again for the Apple Cup, with the winner feeling a little bit better despite a disappointing season. The Cougars weren't expected to be players in the Pac-12 championship race, so a seventh win would be looked at as success. The Huskies were thought to be the league's best shot at a playoff berth, but has limped to a 6-5 mark -- so a win here would salve a lot of hurt. Washington has won six in a row, and hasn't lost in Seattle since 2007. 
Georgia State at Georgia Southern: What is it with Georgians and their love of hate? UGA and Tech have Clean Old Fashioned Hate, and this one has been dubbed Modern Day Hate -- and it's only been played five times! Can't we all just get along? The Panthers have won both meetings in Statesboro, so you can bet that the Eagles want to change that trend. Georgia Southern. Both teams are among the top 11 nationally in rushing, but the Eagles have been much better at stopping the run. So Panthers quarterback Dan Ellington may need to hit a couple of shots through the air.
Indiana at Purdue: Another edition of the Old Oaken Bucket, which has been dominated by Purdue since 2000. The Boilermakers have won 12 of the 18 meetings this century, and seven of the last nine in West Lafayette. The Hoosiers have won seven games for the first time since 2007 and would love nothing more than to cap off the year with a win over their hated rival. Purdue is just .500 at home this season and has been maddeningly inconsistent, as well as ravaged by injuries -- including a nearly season-long one to electric receiver Rondale Moore. Purdue did find another threat in freshman wideout David Bell, whose matchup with freshman corner Tiawan Mullen should be a real doozy. 
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky: Yet another hate game -- 100 Miles of Hate in this case -- and this one has been one of the more dramatic rivalries in recent years. Six of the last eight have been decided by a single score, including victories of 1, 3 and 5 points in Bowling Green since 2010. WKU is coming off of consecutive road wins over Arkansas and Southern Miss, while MTSU has dropped two of its last three contests. This is a chance for America to see two underrated stars, Middle Tennessee QB Asher O'Hara (914 yards rushing, 2315 passing, 63.6 completion pct) and WKU pass rush terror DeAngelo Malone (10.5 sacks, 20 TFL, 15 QBH).
USF at UCF: The War on I-4 has been won the last two years by the Knights, but the Bulls won in Orlando as recently at 2015. UCF is unbeaten at  home this season and has scored at least 41 points in all five contests and welcomes in a USF squad that has dropped three straight and four of its last five games. USF averages just 22 points per game in 2019, and that's not nearly enough to hang with the high-octane Knights. Dillon Gabriel hasn't always been on point with his accuracy, but he's shown great proficiency at the deep ball and isn't afraid to take shots down the field. 

Friday, November 22, 2019

College Football Whiparound Week 13


JT Barrett throws a pass in Ohio State's thrilling 39-38 victory over Penn State in 2017, the last time the teams hooked up in Columbus (Joe Maiorana/USAToday)



SPOTLIGHT GAME
(8) Penn State at (2) Ohio State: Supremacy in the Big Ten East is on the line, as is a potential spot in the College Football Playoff. Penn State started the season like a house afire, but it's gotten tougher of late with three of the last four games decided by a touchdown or less. Included is the lone loss of the season, on the road against Minnesota, a game in which the Nittany Lions secondary was exposed. Penn State is top-notch defensively, led by linebacker Micah Parsons, and will have to be if it is to slow down the Buckeyes juggernaut. OSU leads the nation in scoring margin (over 40 points per game) and is top five in both offense and defense. Justin Fields and crew will have to work a bit harder for points against Penn State, but the real challenge for the Nittany Lions will come on offense. OSU has a lethal pass rush -- which gets Chase Young back -- and corners who can lock down receivers, so it may be up to emerging tight end Pat Freiermuth to make some big plays. If he is kept under control then it's likely going to be a long day for the visitors, who may have trouble scoring. OSU has won six of the last seven, including the last three at home. The last three contests have been decided by five total points, and twice in the last three games the number two team has gone down to defeat.
RANKED AND FILE
Arkansas at (1) LSU: A longstanding rivalry game, this one is played for the Golden Boot -- and it's the Tigers who will do most of the kicking. The Razorbacks fired coach Chad Morris so it's hard to know what we'll get on Saturday. We do know that it won't be good enough to knock off LSU, which is on a collision course with Georgia for the SEC Championship. Joe Burrow has the Heisman tucked safely in his back pocket, so the object here is to get out of the game without an injury, and maybe to give confidence to a defense that has been very little like LSU editions of the recent past. Arkansas running back Rakeem Boyd has eclipsed 1,000 yards on the season and is one of the few bright spots for the Hogs. 
Texas A&M at (4) Georgia: At least the Bulldogs aren't scheduling a big check this weekend. The Aggies haven't been great this year, but have shown flashes of brilliance at times. There isn't enough firepower on offense to light up the scoreboard, especially against a Georgia D that's one of the best in the nation. Auburn's rushing touchdown last weekend was the first allowed this season by Georgia, and the Dawgs would love nothing better than to get up by a couple of touchdowns and smother the Aggies with their opportunistic, speed-laden stop unit.
Western Carolina at (5) Alabama: The Crimson Tide suffered a huge blow to their postseason hopes last weekend when Tua Tagovailoa suffered a season-ending hip injury against Mississippi State, so now Mac Jones takes over. He's been effective in spot play this season, but it really doesn't matter who is under center -- or in the backfield, or at receiver, or on defense -- because Alabama is playing FCS Western Carolina. In late November. Before the Iron Bowl. 
(6) Oregon at Arizona State: Recent games have been barnburners, with Oregon taking a pair of two point victories and a six point overtime win since 2015. The Ducks know that if they win out they are likely in the College Football Playoff, and they are unbeaten in true road games this season. If not for the last second loss in the opener against Auburn Oregon would be even more highly thought of. Justin Herbert has gone 11-2 TD-INT in the last four games, completing over 70 percent of his passes. After a fast start ASU has dropped four in a row, including the last two by a total of six points. The Sun Devils are still looking to become bowl eligible so should be ready to go. The question is whether they can stop Herbert and Oregon's air attack -- ASU has allowed 19 touchdown passes and picked off just four in 2019. 
(7) Utah at Arizona: The Wildcats have been respectable over the years against Utah but have dropped the last three by an average of 17 ppg. The Utes are still very much in the running for a berth in the College Football Playoff, which means a top effort here. Arizona is 111th in total defense, good news for a Utah team that ranks in the top 10 on offense (and defense). The Utes have held four of their last five foes to seven points or less, and could do the same to a less-than-potent UA attack.
TCU at (9) Oklahoma: The Horned Frogs have been known over the years for a swarming defense, but it hasn't impacted the Sooners much at all. Oklahoma has scored at least 30 points in each of the last five matchups, and has lost just once to TCU as Big 12 foes. You can bet the Sooners will want to jump out early after nearly falling against Baylor last week, and having Ceedee Lamb back at receiver will go a long way in making that happen. A win clinches a spot in the Big 12 title game for Oklahoma.
(10) Minnesota at Northwestern: The Gophers need to pick themselves up off the canvas and get back to their winning ways, and couldn't have picked a better foe than the offensively-challenged Wildcats. Northwestern has scored 10 points or fewer in six games this year, and have been near the bottom of most offensive stats all season. Minnesota could be without quarterback Tanner Morgan, who is in concussion protocol after taking a hit late in last weekend's Iowa game, but should have enough to nab a road victory. The Gophers need to win out to clinch a berth in the Big Ten title game. 
Purdue at (12) Wisconsin: The Boilers have won three of their last five games -- against the league's lesser lights -- but are 0-3 against ranked foes this season. Purdue has been pretty bad stopping the run this season, which means Jonathan Taylor should have little trouble gaining the 20 yards he needs to pass Herschel Walker for the most yards amassed through a junior season. Wisconsin still has a path to the Big Ten West crown -- win out and it's theirs as next weekend's finale is against Minnesota.
(13) Michigan at Indiana: The Hoosiers are having one of the best seasons in recent memory, winning seven games for the first time since 2007, and continue their quest for respect by hosting resurgent Michigan. Each of the last four meetings have been decided by 11 points or less, all going to the Wolverines. Indiana is 5-1 at home and has only one truly bad loss this season (51-10 to Ohio State in September). Indiana hasn't beaten a ranked opponent since 2016 and will have its hands full against a Michigan team that has scored at least 38 points in four of its last five contests. The defense has finally gotten back to Michigan standards, though you have to wonder whether there will be a little look ahead to next weekend's rivalry game with Ohio State.
Texas at (14) Baylor: As great as their story was, the Bears always seemed like they were living on borrowed time. Six of their nine wins were by one score, and three were by three points or fewer. Now we'll see if they can rebound from the gut punch of blowing a 25-point lead and losing to Oklahoma, and it won't be easy vs a Longhorns team against which they've lost four in a row. Texas has been something of a disappointment, alternating losses and wins dating back to the Oklahoma game. Whoever plays better between Sam Ehlinger and Charlie Brewer, their team most likely comes away with the victory. 
Samford at (15) Auburn: Coming off a hard-fought loss to Georgia, the Tigers should get healthy against FCS Samford. It's late November. Before the Iron Bowl. But still, it just means more, right? 
Boston College at (16) Notre Dame: The Irish have really put things together after the road beatdown against Michigan, averaging over 33 points per contest and limiting foes to just 13. Chase Claypool has burst onto the national scene at receiver, catching 20 passes with five TDs in the last three games. BC is 123rd in pass defense, which means he could have another big day. If the Eagles have any hope of slowing the Irish down it will be on the legs of AJ Dillon. The junior has seven 100-yard games this season and has been a workhorse for BC, averaging 27 carries per contest. BC has lost six straight in the series, though ND squeaked out a 16-14 win the last time the teams met in South Bend.
Illinois at (17) Iowa: The Hawkeyes ended Minnesota's unbeaten season last weekend, so could be a tad complacent against an Illini team that has been the second biggest surprise of the Big 10. Lovie Smith seems to be perpetually on the hot seat but has guided Illinois to six wins, including three road victories. Brandon Peters hasn't been terribly accurate under center, but has valued the football, which is big against an Iowa squad that has picked off a pass in four straight contests. Iowa has won five straight in the series and is 15 points from being unbeaten. You can bet Kirk Ferentz wants a strong finish as the Hawkeyes still have a mathematical shot at taking the West Division crown. 
(18) Memphis at USF: Memphis would love to be a road warrior and come out of this one victorious, as it would keep the Tigers in the driver's seat for the G5 New Year's Six bid. The host has lost five of the last meetings, and Memphis has scored 42 or more points in four straight games. USF's defense has allowed 20 or less in three straight, but it's worth wondering whether the Bulls offense can generate enough points to steal this one. 
Temple at (19) Cincinnati: The Owls have been very streaky this season, never winning more than three nor losing more than two straight. Temple has beaten Cincinnati four straight times, scoring more than 30 points in three of the meetings. Cincinnati has been excellent at home this season, winning by an average of 18 points per contest, and will definitely be focused for this one as next week is a huge showdown with Memphis. The Bearcats eight game winning streak is fifth best in FBS, and they've won 12 in a row at Nippert Stadium. 
(20) Boise State at Utah State: The Broncos have won 13 of the last 14 meetings, though the loss was in Logan in 2015, by a 52-26 count. A Boise State victory puts the Broncos into the Mountain West title game, while a Utah State upset jumbles things at the top of the Mountain Division. Utah State has rebounded from consecutive losses to win two in a row, but the defense, which was expected to be a strong point, has been far too inconsistent. It's a good bet that senior QB Jaylon Henderson gets the start for Boise State after tossing three touchdowns in last week's 42-9 win over New Mexico. 
(21) Oklahoma State at West Virginia: The Mountaineers are fresh off an upset of Kansas State, and could do the same to the Cowboys with word that Spencer Sanders is out for the final games due to a hand injury. That would leave signal-calling duties to senior Dru Brown, who has been solid in limited action but isn't the running threat Sanders is. Since taking over at quarterback for WVU, Jarret Doege has thrown four touchdowns and zero picks and hasn't been afraid to take shots down the field. WVU has lost four in a row in the series. 
Kansas at (22) Iowa State: The Cyclones haven't allowed a touchdown to Kansas in 10 quarters, and have won eight of the last nine. Kansas has allowed 31 or more points in six straight games, which means that maybe Les Miles isn't quite as genius at defense as some believe. Iowa State is 11 points from being unbeaten, and six games have been within one score at the end. Brock Purdy has really stepped up his play in recent weeks, tossing multiple touchdowns in three of ISU's last four games. Purdy has been able to do his thing because freshman running back Breece Hall has finally taken off. Hall has four 100-yard games in the last five contests, scoring all seven of his touchdowns in that span.
UCLA at (23) USC: The battle for the Victory Bowl, the Crosstown Showdown, whatever you want to call it -- it's a celebration of two teams with the best uniform schemes in college football. Both get to wear their home duds, and it is beyond grand. Even if the game stinks -- and this one could -- it's lovely to look at. The Trojans are playing for an eighth victory, something that seemed impossible midway through the season and something that could save Clay Helton's job. The Bruins had won three straight before being blasted by Utah, and still have a shot at bowl eligibility with a win here and next weekend against Cal. The home team has won six of the last eight, and USC has taken 15 of the last 20 meetings. 
Texas State at (24) Appalachian State: You have to think that the Mountaineers are still wondering what happened on Halloween night at home against Georgia Southern -- the only blemish on the App State ledger. Since then ASU has reeled off road wins against South Carolina and Georgia State, and appears once again to be the team many forecast to nab the New Year's Six bid. Texas State has never beaten App State in three meetings as Sun Belt foes, losing by an average of 21 ppg, and averages just 18.7 ppg this season -- though it has managed 57 points in its last two games. An App State win coupled with a Georgia Southern loss clinches the East Division crown.
(25) SMU at Navy: A crucial battle to remain in first place in the AAC West, between two teams that couldn't be more different. The Mustangs play fast, spread you out and love big plays, while the Middies want to control the clock, grind it out and frustrate the hell out your defense. Navy has won eight of the last nine, and the last two meetings have been decided by a total of four points. 
TAKE FIVE (Games Featuring Unranked Teams)
Louisiana Tech at UAB: Legion Field is where visiting teams go to die, as the Blazers have won 17 in a row at home, and have won the last two contests against the Bulldogs. Louisiana Tech is top 35 nationally in Yards Per Play while the Blazers are sixth in that category defensively. La Tech is tied for first in the CUSA West with Southern Miss, and UAB is just a game behind. So there is a lot on the line.
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech: Both teams are still very much in the Coastal Division race, which means the winner will have a leg up on being Clemson's sacrificial lamb. The Panthers have won six of their last seven, including three straight away, though they haven't done it easily -- the average margin of victory in the wins is just over five points. The Hokies have become an offensive machine, scoring 34 or more in five of their last six contests. After tabbing dynamic but inconsistent freshmen Quincy Patterson for a few games, Tech went back to Hendon Hooker to run the show, and he's responded with a 67 percent completion average and 11.4 YPA in the last two games. The home team has taken six of the last eight, and seven of the last 11 tilts have been decided by seven points or less. 
Tennessee at Missouri: Don't look now, but a win here makes the Vols bowl eligible. Tennessee has made great strides in year two under Jeremy Pruitt, and sit in third place in the SEC East. Tennessee has won its last three games in impressive fashion, and with Missouri foundering on a four-game losing skid and still unsure whether it is eligible for the postseason, another upset isn't out of the question. Missouri is 5-1 the last six years in home finales, and has pounded Tennessee on the ground in the last three meetings, rushing for 1,080 yards.
Oregon State at Washington State: Bowl eligibility awaits the winner, and the Beavers have been won their last three away from home and have shown real signs of improvement in year two under Jonathan Smith. OSU has averaged 45 points per game in its three road wins, while Wazzu has dropped four of its last six. Washington State has won five straight in the series and knows a win here is vital, with the Apple Cup up next. OSU quarterback Jake Luton has tossed 23 touchdowns and just two picks, while Anthony Gordon leads all of FBS with 39 TD strikes. 
San Diego State at Hawaii: This one is defense vs offense, and may the best unit win. The Aztecs rank 10th in yards per play allowed while the Rainbow Warriors are 11th in yards per play. San Diego State has won five of its last 8 road finales, and has won comfortably in its last two trips to the big island. The winner has the inside track to the Mountain West title game, so this one is worth staying up for.

Friday, November 1, 2019

College Football Whiparound Week 10


Florida faces Georgia in Jacksonville on Saturday, with first place in the  SEC East at stake (AP/John Raoux)



This will be the final week this season where the majority of the card is crappy. Yes, we do get to enjoy the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, and a tasty AAC showdown featuring SMU and Memphis. But otherwise, this is a week to check those final items off your Honey-Do list. It doesn't help that the nation's top three teams are all idle this weekend, a stat oddity that hasn't happened since September 1991.

(8) Georgia vs. (6) Florida (Jacksonville) -- This is the second straight year the teams have met as top 10 foes, the Bulldogs winning in grand fashion last year 36-17. The Gators have lost five of the last eight meetings, and the last five contests have been decided by an average of 22 points. Both teams play standout defense, but Georgia has the edge on offense, averaging nearly seven yards per play. Florida will get after Jake Fromm, who was asked to do very little in Georgia's win over Kentucky (just 12 attempts). Some of Fromm's limitations as a passer have been exposed the last couple of games as he's averaged just 4.5 yards per attempt. Georgia will lean on D'Andre Swift, who has averaged over six yards per carry and scored three touchdowns in the Bulldogs last two games. Both teams rank in the top 10 in red zone touchdowns allowed, so if the end zone is found it's likely coming from a big play. The Gators have five players with at least 19 catches, so defenses cannot focus on just one weapon. Kyle Pitts has been a matchup nightmare in the red zone and Freddie Swain has been the big play guy. Georgia has one of the top cover men in the game in sophomore corner Eric Stokes.
(15) SMU at (24) Memphis -- SMU is one of the better stories of the 2019 season, sitting on an undefeated record heading into November for the first time since before the school received the death penalty in the 1980s. The Mustangs have done it with a nice combination of offense (6th in scoring at 43 points per game0 and a defense that has given up some big plays but is adept at rushing the passer (36 sacks, second in FBS). Memphis has gone 17-2 at home since 2017, have won five straight in the series and are 10-1 in November under Mike Norvell. The Tigers are sixth in Yards Per Play and 10th in scoring (39.5) and have one of the most exciting players in football in freshman running back Kenneth Gainwell (over seven yards a pop, 11 TDs). The AAC West division title hangs in the balance in this one, and it's big enough that ESPN has sent GameDay to Memphis, and the broadcast is in prime time. 
Wofford at (4) Clemson -- It's November, and Clemson is playing Wofford. Repeat that -- Clemson is playing Wofford. While the Tigers cannot control how bad the ACC is -- and it's BAD -- it CAN control who it plays in non-league action. And just like the SEC teams that get a break by taking on FCS squads, Clemson is also taking the easiest path to a CFP berth. The committee should institute a rule that says if you play an FCS squad it counts as one less win. Maybe then these teams wouldn't do it anymore. This game, along with the recent comical comments by Dabo Swinney about quitting coaching if players get paid, will make a certain someone pull hard for the Terriers. 
(7) Oregon at USC -- USC dominated the series early, but the Ducks have four of the last six and two of the last three in the LA Coliseum. The Trojans look like they have something special in frosh quarterback Kedon Slovis, who has tossed eight touchdowns and just one interception in the last three games, completing 68 percent of his passes. USC has found its scoring mojo again, averaging 38 points in its last two games. But points will be harder to come by against an Oregon defense that's ninth in the country in points allowed (14.8) and which leads the nation in interceptions (14). Oregon has needed last minute heroics against both of the Washington schools in consecutive weeks, but was rolling opponents prior to that. Oregon can get after the quarterback (23 sacks), so look for Slovis to throw a lot of quick timing passes -- slants, hitches, curls. An Oregon victory clinches the North division, while a USC win would keep the Trojans atop the South.
(9) Utah at Washington -- The numbers would indicate that Utah is the stronger team here, but one number that stands out is the Utes lack of success in Seattle -- just 1-12, and the Huskies have won four straight, including last year's hard-fought 10-3 win in the Pac-12 title game. Washington has dropped two of its last three, not finding enough offense against Stanford and not enough defense against Oregon. The Utes are playing for a return trip to the league championship and needs to keep pace with USC, which is responsible for Utah's lone defeat this season. Utah has yielded just 23 points in its last four games, and has scored 35 or more in three of the four. Tyler Huntley has been great under center, and the return of Zack Moss -- 115 yards and two TDs against Cal -- in the backfield has brought stability back to the Utes offense.
Ole Miss at (11) Auburn -- The Tigers have won 27 straight homecoming contests, and should be pretty confident after taking LSU to the wire before falling last weekend. Auburn has won six of the last seven in the series as host, and Ole Miss should find points tough to come by against the nation's 14th-ranked scoring D. Auburn should be able to dictate terms with its front four, and may be able to find some big plays through the air against a defense that's allowed 15 passing touchdowns and nearly eight yards per pass attempt. 
(14) Michigan at Maryland -- The Wolverines seem to have found something in the second half of the Penn State game, continuing that momentum into last week's blasting of Notre Dame. The Terps have been gashed on defense of late, allowing at least 34 points in four of its last five games. The Wolverines will want to come out fast and keep their foot on the gas as an open week awaits before rivalry games with Michigan State and Ohio State. After looking lost on defense early in the year, Michigan has really tightened things up, allowing just 3.66 yards per play in the last five games.
Virginia Tech at (16) Notre Dame -- Now that it has two losses, how will Notre Dame respond? Last weekend's beatdown at Michigan was atypical for a Brian Kelly team, which just didn't show up. The Irish were bad, and while the CFP is no longer in reach this will be a real test of resiliency. The Hokies average less than four yards per carry running the ball so may need to take to the air to score points against an Irish defense that allows nearly 59 percent completions and 6.5 yards per attempt. Irish quarterback Ian Book has done a good job valuing the football (just two interceptions), but was awful against Michigan's pressure. Don't be surprised if Bud Foster dials up it a notch. 
(17) Cincinnati at East Carolina -- The Pirates have lost four of the last five meetings, but did win the last time at Dowdy-Ficklen. ECU is offensively challenged, and going against one of the top defenses in the country in Luke Fickell's bunch will magnify that. Holton Ahlers hasn't improved as much as one would hope in his second season at quarterback, tossing eight TDs and seven picks, but he is a good runner who will make you pay if you don't account for him. ECU has allowed 19 rushing touchdowns, which plays right into the hands of the physical Bearcats. Michael Warren has a four game scoreless streak he's looking to break, and his bruising style should wear down the Pirates defense. 
(21) Boise State at San Jose State -- Boise State is still the favorite in the Mountain West, but this is not your typical San Jose State squad -- the Spartans have already won four games, which is more than the previous two seasons combined. Wins over Arkansas and Army show that it hasn't been a fluke, San Jose State is definitely improving. Much of that is because quarterback Josh Love has been very efficient with the football (15 TD-3 INT), and senior wideout Bailey Gaither has become a big play threat. Boise State has been getting it done on the ground, with Robert Mahone scoring five touchdowns and freshman George Holani averaging nearly five and a half yards per tote. Broncos freshman Hank Bachmeier is likely out another week with a hip pointer, but sophomore Chase Cord has provided a nice dual threat in relief. San Jose State has never beaten Boise State in 13 meetings. 
(22) Kansas State at Kansas -- The Jayhawks have had a mini-resurgence in the first year under Les Miles, winning as many times in their first eight games (three) as they did all of last year. The last time Kansas won more than three games was its 5-7 campaign in 2009, and KU is getting it done with offense, ranking 33rd in yards per play (6.33). Senior quarterback Carter Stanley has been very good, throwing 19 touchdowns and pushing the ball down the field (9.5 YPA, top 10 nationally). Running back Pooka Williams has gone over 130 yards in two of the last three games and could be a challenge for a Wildcats defense that allows 5.58 YPC (125th nationally), but did a solid job in limiting Oklahoma to just 102 yards on the ground in last weekend's upset.
NC State at (23) Wake Forest -- The home team has won 10 of the last 12 meetings, but Wake has not been good at home off of an open week, losing seven straight by an average of 15.4 ppg. NC State has been efficient through the air, though not dangerous, which could work against a Wake defense that allows nearly eight yards per completion. The Demon Deacons have been lethal through the air, with Sage Surratt and Scotty Washington combining for 85 catches and 16 touchdowns. Wake likes to play with tempo, eclipsing 80 plays four times this season and going over 100 plays twice. The hosts would be well served to win here as the schedule ends with three of the last four on the road -- including Clemson in two weeks. Wake has played as a ranked team vs NC State three previous times, and has lost all three.

TAKE FIVE (Games Featuring Unranked Teams)
Miami at Florida State -- The luster is off of this fierce rivalry as both teams struggle to be even mediocre, but you can bet it can make one team's season if it comes away with a victory. Both teams have had issues at quarterback -- and keeping them upright -- which means it could be up to the ground attack to get things done. That could be tough for the Seminoles, even with Cam Akers, because Miami is 14th nationally allowing just 3.07 yards per carry and seven touchdowns. The visitor in the series has won 9 of the last 13 meetings, and 15 of the last 17 games have been decided by a touchdown or less. 
TCU at Oklahoma State -- It's defense vs offense in Stillwater, with the Horned Frogs ranking in the national top 25 in most of the important defensive categories and the Cowboys doing the same on offense. This one will be decided by how well OSU running back Chuba Hubbard does. The nation's leading rusher, Hubbard has cranked out at least 110 yards in all but one game this season and has multiple touchdowns in five contests. TCU allows just 3.2 yards per carry and has allowed more than 24 points just three times this season. Linebacker Garret Wallow (10+ tackles per game) is the heart and soul of TCU's 3-3-5 attack and has excellent instincts. The home team has won 11 of the last 14 meetings. 
FAU at Western Kentucky -- Both the Owls and Hilltoppers have just one loss in league play, so the winner here gets a leg up in CUSA's East Division. After giving up 13 touchdowns in its first two games, FAU has allowed just 15 the rest of the season. Linebackers Rashad Smith and Akileis Leroy have paced the stop unit, and the offense has been efficient enough to take some pressure off. WKU won just three times last year, so being the running for the division crown is a huge improvement. The Hilltoppers have allowed 14 points or less in four of their last five games, with junior defensive end DeAngelo Malone being a real difference maker (9 sacks, 15 tackles for loss, second on the team in tackles with 62). The visitor has won five of the last eight meetings. 
Virginia at North Carolina -- Looky looky -- the top two teams in the Coastal Division squaring off in Chapel Hill. The Cavaliers are coming off of a demoralizing loss to Louisville while UNC edged Duke thanks to a Chaz Surratt interception at the goal line with 14 left to play. The Tar Heels are 4-4 and playing with a ton of energy, which has to be viewed as a positive in Mack Brown's first year of his second stint as head coach. UVA has been wildly inconsistent this season, playing to the level of competition and letting teams hang around far too long. Quarterback Bryce Perkins has just one touchdown pass in the last three games, and the Cavs have averaged less than 4.5 yards per play in the last three contests. Virginia has lost its last nine when playing a second straight road game, but has consecutive wins over the Tar Heels after losing seven in a row. 
UAB at Tennessee -- The Vols upset South Carolina a week ago and want to keep the momentum going against a Blazers squad ranked fifth in the nation in defensive yards per play (4.09). UAB has yet to allow more than 20 points in a game this season but has given up a lot of yardage in each of its last three games. Junior linebacker Kristopher Moll leads the way (9 tackles per game, 9 TFL, 4.5 sacks), while on offense quarterback Tyler Johnston III isn't afraid to push the ball downfield (9.7 YPA). Tennessee has really dialed up the pressure the last three games, amassing 12 sacks and 21 TFL, while receiver Jauan Jennings has been the go-to guy on offense (7-174-2 TD vs South Carolina). Tennessee lost its opener to G5 Georgia State but is 4-0 all time vs UAB. The Blazers are 0-4 vs Power 5 foes under Bill Clark, all against the SEC.