Sunday, August 12, 2018

2018 Top Head Coaching Hires

There was quite a bit of offseason movement on the college football coaching front, with some big names (Chip Kelly) returning to the game after time off and a few fixtures (Jimbo Fisher) making surprising moves to new programs.

All of these coaches will have differing levels of success, especially in year one, as some inherited better programs while others will need to do a rebuild or change to a new system.

This is one man's ranking of the top coaching hires of 2018.

Scott Frost (Pioneer Press)
1. Scott Frost/Nebraska -- Frost "going home" was about as much of a slam dunk as any coaching hire this season, and after leading UCF to an unbeaten record the natives will expect big things right away. It might take a season or two, but Frost should be able to recruit better than his predecessor, and it's already apparent that he can put his players in the best position to succeed. He brought defensive coordinator Erik Chinander with him from UCF, which might be an issue -- UCF was not good defensively despite being athletically sound and fast. If the D is as bad as it was in 2017 (Nebraska ranked 101st in total defense and 116th in scoring defense), what Frost is able to get done offensively might not matter. Still, this one has the feel of a grand slam hire.

2. Chip Kelly/UCLA -- Will Kelly be able to make a seamless transition back to the college game after some time off? He does have a proven track record, and his glitzy offense should play well in Hollywood. The Bruins must get tougher, however, and Kelly's defenses at Oregon were hit and miss. There's no doubt that there will be a ton of eyes on Kelly, which is a win for the Bruins, who had become second fiddle to their crosstown rival USC. The Bruins were one of the younger teams in the Pac-12 last season, and once Kelly gets the recruiting machine they could be one of the most talented. The only question here is whether or not Kelly will once again get a wandering eye for the NFL.

3. Willie Taggart/Florida State -- The surprising move by Jimbo Fisher to leave Tallahassee for College Station opened the door for Taggart, who has improved every program he's coached and who is a tireless recruiter. He won't need to really "program build" the Seminoles as there is already a boatload of talent on hand, and he should be able to spice up an FSU offense that hasn't finished in the nation's top 20 since 2013. His lone recruiting class at Oregon was top 20, so you have to believe he will get that machine humming as well.

4. Dan Mullen/Florida -- This might end up being the best coaching hire of 2018, even if it isn't quite as high-profile as Chip Kelly returning to college football. Mullen turned Mississippi State into a very good program, and with more money, resources and better talent in Gainesville could be on the verge of returning the Gators to championship level. He was part of the last UF coaching staff to win a national title in 2006, and his work with quarterbacks should give Gators fans hope that the offense will get it going sooner rather than later.


5. Jimbo Fisher/Texas A&M -- Fisher surprised many when he decided to leave FSU for A&M -- partly because he had a better situation at FSU and partly because the Seminoles have been a better program for quite some time. Fisher is an excellent recruiter so he should be able to upgrade the depth and talent in College Station, but there could be a worry as the Seminoles regressed after Jameis Winston left for the NFL, losing 12 games in the last three seasons and looking uninspired and undisciplined doing it. Fisher should provide a short term boost for the Aggies, but may find a real breakthrough difficult as he now has to battle Alabama, Georgia, Auburn and Florida, SEC programs that historically are equal or better than A&M.

6. Joe Moorhead/Mississippi State -- Moorhead was the architect behind Penn State's resurgent offense, and has one of the brightest offensive minds in all of football. With quarterback Nick Fitzgerald returning, Moorhead has one of the most dangerous weapons in America at his disposal. Moorhead turned FCS Fordham into a team that won 12 games in his second season after inheriting a one-win squad. Moorhead gets his chance to shine at a high profile program, and the belief here is that he succeeds wildly. 

7. Chad Morris/Arkansas -- Things never worked out for Bret Bielema, who tried to bring a Midwest approach to the SEC. Morris resurrected an SMU program that was winless when he took over, and he has connections in Texas which means recruiting should pick up. His hiring of veteran defensive coordinator John Chavis is a signal that Morris is serious about making the Razorbacks a player in the SEC title race.

8. Mario Cristobal/Oregon -- Oregon's players stumped for the former Florida International coach and Ducks assistant after Taggart left for Florida State, and hiring Cristobal full time brings familiarity. His record at FIU wasn't good (27-47) but he was undertaking one of the most massive rebuilds in recent memory, so on balance he did all right. Cristobal is an elite recruiter, and Oregon has been a big brand for a number of years now, so the players should show up. How well Cristobal does with them remains to be seen.
 
Kevin Sumlin (AllSportsTucson.com)
9. Kevin Sumlin/Arizona -- Many lauded this hire, which is curious given Sumlin's results at Texas A&M (five losses in each of the last four seasons). After a bang-up start in his first two seasons, Sumlin's offense (without Johnny Manziel) did a freefall, failing to break the top 25 in scoring from 2014 forward. Also noted as a wizard with quarterback, the Aggies had little resembling a passing game after Manziel, missing on nearly everyone it brought into the program. On the plus side, Sumlin is a very good recruiter, averaging a top 10 finish over the last five seasons. With lower expectations at Arizona, and a wondrous quarterback talent in Khalil Tate, Sumlin should be good right away in Tucson. Whether or not he'll be good in a few years is the big question.

10. Steve Campbell/South Alabama -- Campbell is one of the few new coaches with a national championship under his belt -- two in fact, albeit at lower levels. He won a Division II title at Delta State and a JUCO crown in 2007 at Mississippi Gulf Coast. He went 20-5 the last two years at Central Arkansas and won this past season's Southland Conference crown, which is no mean feat given the collection of teams in that league. Campbell loves playing tempo on offense and had numerous players from his JUCO team go on to play FBS football. While the Jaguars have been competitive in the Sun Belt, there's never been a real breakthrough. Campbell could be the guy to change that.

11. Billy Napier/Louisiana -- Napier has a Power 5 pedigree, serving as Arizona State's OC last season after spending five seasons coaching receivers at Alabama. He was also at Clemson, and that kind of cache could turn into an upgrade of on-field talent for the Ragin' Cajuns. He may not be a household names to college football fans, but those in the profession know that he has the goods to be successful. He has an excellent offensive mind and has been a very good recruiter. He joins Campbell as another energetic Sun Belt coach.

12. Jeremy Pruitt/Tennessee -- Tennessee gave a blueprint on how not to handle a coaching search after it fired Butch Jones, hiring-then-not-hiring Ohio State's Greg Schiano after an uninformed fan revolt. After interviewing/pursuing some second-tier candidates, the Vols end up with Pruitt, which really was a good save, all things considered. Pruitt has been the architect of Alabama's stifling defenses the past two seasons and was at Georgia prior to that, so he knows the SEC. He's been great at developing players and is a solid recruiter but has zero head coaching experience, at any level, the main reason he doesn't get a higher grade. He should bring talent to Knoxville, but whether it will be enough to contend with Georgia and Florida in the SEC East remains to be seen.

13. Matt Luke/Ole Miss -- Given the situation Luke inherited, he did a bang up job getting the Rebels to .500 in 2017. The players seem to like him, and if is given a chance to get out from under NCAA sanctions he could have Ole Miss competitive again in a few seasons. The talent may not be there for the next couple of seasons thanks to the transgressions of Freeze, but Luke seems like a steady enough hand to get through the difficult times. Luke guided Ole Miss to wins over Kentucky and Mississippi State and was competitive against Texas A&M. Stability is the buzzword here, and Luke brings that.

14. Jonathan Smith/Oregon State -- It wasn't a sexy hire, but Smith is a former Beavers player and knows what it takes to win in Corvallis. He has spent the last six seasons working under Chris Petersen, which is a positive. He's an unknown when it comes to recruiting, but he definitely will provide passion as a former OSU player, and recruits will see that. If he can tap into the Washington and California markets, he could get enough talent to make the Beavers at least competitive.

15. Chad Lunsford/Georgia Southern -- Lunsford got the job after leading the Eagles to a 2-4 mark following the ouster of Tyson Summers (who had the Eagles at 0-6 before his firing). The players love him, and the effort and results were apparent after he took over the program. Georgia Southern is a proud program and doesn't like being down, and Lunsford was part of the very good recent past as an assistant on Willie Fritz's staff. Going back to the option, long a staple of GSU football, will warm the hearts of fans everywhere.

Sonny Dykes (APNews)
16. Sonny Dykes/SMU -- Dykes has shown his offensive chops, and he does have a good knowledge of the state of the Texas, but he has an overall losing record and has won eight games or more just three times. He wasn't good in rivalry games while at Cal (going 1-11 against USC, UCLA and Stanford), and his defenses have seldom been more than mediocre. Maybe this works out, but the feeling is this is a big step down from Morris. Even if it is, the offense should at least be entertaining.

17. Josh Heupel/UCF -- Heupel knows offense, coordinating Missouri's high powered attack in 2017. Still, this one was a bit of a head-scratcher as there were more proven candidates out there. The Knights may not be quite as prolific as they were in 2017 under Frost, though Heupel should be able to keep McKenzie Milton in the spotlight with an offense that depends heavily on quarterback playmaking. The fast-paced offense should still be a staple, but the question is will Heupel be more like he was at Missouri (successful) or Oklahoma (unsuccessful)? It was a bit odd that UCF didn't make a bigger splash given how high its profile has become, and Heupel has never been a head coach at any level. So it is a gamble, but one that could have a huge payoff.

18. Mike Bloomgren/Rice -- Bloomgren may not have the profile of a lot of coaches on this list, but he spent the last seven seasons at Stanford as David Shaw's right hand man as well as spending some time as an assistant in the NFL. Like Stanford, Rice has stringent academic requirement, so Bloomgren should be able to figure out how to win with those limitations. He has zero head coaching experience, but Rice is a good level for him to cut his teeth. If he can win there, the 40-year-old will be able to write his ticket to a Power 5 job in a few years.

19. Sean Lewis/Kent State -- Lewis is a brilliant offensive mind, orchestrating Syracuse's high-scoring offense and being with Dino Babers since his Eastern Illinois days. He knows the MAC and knows how to formulate an offense that will put up points, which was a huge issue for Haynes in his five seasons. Lewis is unproven as a recruiter, but you can bet he'll look for some diamonds in the rough types, players who might be undersized but who fit his offense. The youngest coach in FBS (31), Lewis is definitely a gamble. But Kent State is a program that needs to take one, and maybe they hit on something this time.

20. Dana Dimel/UTEP -- Dimel comes from Kansas State, where he ran the offense from 2009 to last season, and has been a head coach before (Wyoming, Houston). UTEP does not routinely get high-profile players, but Dimel has proven adept at getting more out of less working with the Wildcats offense. That has to be the hope for the admins in UTEP, which hasn't won a bowl game since 1967 and has been to the postseason just four times since 2000 and has posted just three winning seasons in that span. On the surface this seems like an odd hire, as Dimel is older (55) and may have a limited shelf life. But he knows how to recruit to remote outposts (Laramie definitely counts) and could provide a little bit of hope to the Miners downtrodden program.

21. Herm Edwards/Arizona State -- I love Herm -- who doesn't? His analytical mind, his way of turning a phrase, all of it. It's a joy to listen to. But coaching a major college football after not coaching collegiately  since 1989, or at any level since 2008? He was clumsy in his introductory press conference, and this just doesn't have the feel of something that will end well. Whether or not you agree with the decision to fire Todd Graham, who was 31-23 in league play in six seasons, the hiring of Edwards is one of the more head-scratching hires in recent memory. Maybe it works out and we got a long dose of Herm-isms. But the guess here is that it will be a jarring return to the game, and won't end well.

No comments:

Post a Comment