Monday, February 26, 2018

Schedule Grading -- Pac-12

We continue our look at 2018 Power 5 football schedules, focusing today on the Pac-12.

The Pac-12 was left out of the College Football Playoff, though not for lack of trying. USC looked to be the best team for most of the year, and played a solid schedule. But a midseason loss to Notre Dame eliminated the Trojans, and there was no real legitimate second team.

In four years of the CFP, the Pac has been involved only twice, tied with the Big 12 for fewest of any Power 5 league. It's unknown at this point whether any Pac-12 team has the schedule strength to get into the mix in 2018.

























ARIZONA
NC sked: Brigham Young, at Houston, Southern Utah
Conference sked: at Oregon State, USC, Cal, at Utah, at UCLA, Oregon, Colorado, at Washington State, Arizona State
NC grade: C+; Were it not for Southern Utah, this grade would venture into the B category. Going to Houston will be a test.
Conference grade: C; The Wildcats miss Washington and Stanford, and get USC and Oregon at home, and rival ASU must come to Tucson. 
Overall grade: C 

ARIZONA STATE
NC sked: UTSA, Michigan State, at San Diego State
Conference sked: at Washington, Oregon State, at Colorado, Stanford, at USC, Utah, UCLA, at Oregon, at Arizona
NC grade: A-; UTSA is improving but should be a victory for the ASU. Not sure we can say the same for Michigan State or San Diego State, especially on the road for the latter.
Conference grade: A-; The league did rookie coach Herm Edwards no favors, sending his team on the road to face Washington, USC and Oregon. November, which starts with Utah, is especially brutal.
Overall grade: A-
 
CALIFORNIA
NC sked: North Carolina, at Brigham Young, Idaho State
Conference sked: Oregon, at Arizona, UCLA, at Oregon State, Washington, at Washington State, at USC, Stanford, Colorado
NC sked: C; UNC at home will be a test, and going to Provo won't be any kind of picnic.
Conference sked: C+; Nearly all of the tough games are at home, only USC being away. No off weeks once league play starts is tough, as is the four-week gauntlet of Washington, Wazzu, USC and Stanford.
Overall grade: C 

COLORADO
NC sked: at Colorado State, at Nebraska, New Hampshire
Conference sked: UCLA, Arizona State, at USC, at Washington, Oregon State, at Arizona, Washington State, Utah, at Cal
NC grade: C+; You had to do it, eh, Coach Mac? It was all good until New Hampshire, which should eliminate you from national contention on principle.
Conference grade: B; Road trips to USC, Washington and Arizona make this a pretty tough league journey, though getting Washington State and Cal in two of the last three should help a little.
Overall grade: B- 

OREGON
NC sked: Bowling Green, Portland State, San Jose State
Conference sked: Stanford, at Cal, Washington, at Washington State, at Arizona, UCLA, at Utah, Arizona State, at Oregon State
NC sked: F; The league admins had better hope the Ducks don't have a great season, because they won't even sniff the CFP with that joke of a non-league schedule. When Bowling Green is the BEST NC team you face, you know it's bad.
Conference sked: C-; Most of the tests are in Eugene -- Stanford and Washington, most notably. The home tilts with UCLA will be worth the price of admission as Chip Kelly returns. Not much else to write home about.
Overall grade: D 

OREGON STATE
NC sked: at Ohio State, Southern Utah, at Nevada
Conference sked: Arizona, at Arizona State, Washington State, Cal, at Colorado, USC, at Stanford, at Washington, Oregon.
NC sked: D+; The trip to Columbus will be a nightmare, but the other two games are winnable.
Conference grade: B-; Things start easily enough, with three straight winnable games after the opener with Arizona. But take a look at that November -- USC, at Stanford, at UDub and Oregon. Yikes!
Overall grade: C+ 

STANFORD
NC sked -- San Diego State, UC Davis, at Notre Dame
Conference sked -- USC, at Oregon, Utah, at Arizona State, Washington State, at Washington, Oregon State, at Cal, at UCLA
NC grade -- C+; San Diego is a nice opener, and going to Notre Dame should be one of the better non-league games of 2018
Conference sked -- B+; Man, is this thing front loaded. USC, Oregon and Utah early could have the Cardinal battling to stay above .500. Things ease up late, so if Stanford makes it through October with just one loss it could be in line for an excellent season.
Overall grade -- B-

UCLA
NC sked: Cincinnati, at Oklahoma, Fresno State
Conference sked: at Colorado, Washington, at Cal, Arizona, Utah, at Oregon, at Arizona State, USC, Stanford
NC sked: B+; Pretty ambitious slate for a first year coach breaking in a new quarterback. Going to Norman will be a measuring stick, and Fresno won't be any kind of easy as the Bulldogs are probably the better team right now.
Conference grade: C+; Kelly should be happy that most of the toughest games are at home -- Washington, USC and Stanford. Of course, nothing can be taken for granted as everything will be new.
Overall grade: B 

USC
NC sked: UNLV, at Texas, Notre Dame
Conference sked: at Stanford, Washington State, at Arizona, Colorado, at Utah, Arizona State, at Oregon State, Cal, at UCLA
NC grade: B+; UNLV brings this down a tad, but Texas early and Notre Dame late should show how much the Trojans have improved.
Conference grade: B; Trips to Stanford and Arizona will be interesting, but the home slate is filled with teams that are inferior to USC.
Overall grade: B 

UTAH
NC sked: Weber State, at Northern Illinois, Brigham Young
Conference sked: Washington, at Washington State, at Stanford, Arizona, USC, at UCLA, at Arizona State, Oregon, at Colorado
NC grade: D+; It's not often that a Pac-12 team travels to MAC country, so the Utes get points for that. 
Conference grade: C+; Most of the heavy hitters are on the slate, though Washington and Arizona must travel to Salt Lake City.
Overall grade: C- 

WASHINGTON 
NC sked: Auburn, North Dakota, Brigham Young
Conference sked: at Utah, Arizona State, at UCLA, at Oregon, Colorado, at Cal, Stanford, Oregon State, at Washington State
NC sked: B-; The grade is almost entirely for Auburn, which will be a marquee contest in week 1 of 2018.
Conference grade: C+; Going to Utah and Oregon won't be fun, but the rest of the schedule is very manageable, and could keep the Huskies in the thick of the CFP race.
Overall grade: B- 

WASHINGTON STATE 
NC sked : at Wyoming, San Jose State, Eastern Washington
Conference sked: at USC, Utah, at Oregon State, Oregon, at Stanford, Cal, at Colorado, Arizona, Washington
NC grade: D; This is about what you would expect from a team that has zero snaps at quarterback and holes at the skill positions. Doesn't make it acceptable, though.
Conference grade: C-; The Cougars have a pretty tough road in 2018, due more to talent deficiencies than schedule. Getting USC, Utah and Oregon in the span of a month could set the tone for a long season.
Overall grade: D+ 

Friday, February 16, 2018

Schedule Grading -- Big Ten

We continue our look at 2018 Power 5 football schedules, focusing today on the Big Ten.

Last year was the first time that a Big Ten team didn't make the College Football Playoff field, but it had little to do with schedule -- unless you talk about Wisconsin. Had the Badgers beaten Ohio State there was little chance they would have made the field due to a very poor SOS, especially on the non-conference side of things. And it's no different this year, either.

In the Big Ten it's all about which teams you face at home, which means that Penn State might have a leg up on the field.













ILLINOIS
NC sked: Kent State, Western Illinois, at South Florida
Conference sked: Penn State, at Rutgers, Purdue, at Wisconsin, at Maryland, Minnesota, at Nebraska, Iowa, at Northwestern
NC grade: D+; Pretty much all because of the roadie to USF. Kent may be better, but not quickly enough, and Western Illinois is on because Illinois has just four of its nine league games at home. That's the one loophole for the B1G, which has said it will not schedule games against FCS foes.
Conference grade: C-; The Illini miss OSU, Michigan and Michigan State, and get to host Penn State, so it's really not an intimidating slate. 
Overall grade: D+

INDIANA
NC sked: at Florida International, Virginia, Ball State
Conference sked: Michigan State, at Rutgers, at Ohio State, Iowa, Penn State, at Minnesota, Maryland, at Michigan, Purdue
NC grade: C+; Playing a MAC lesser light doesn't score many points, but taking on Virginia and and an emerging FIU at home should pay dividends down the road.
Conference grade: B-; The Hoosiers face OSU and Michigan away and Sparty and Penn State at home, and an improving Purdue means this schedule could make it tough for Indiana to get bowl eligible.
Overall grade: B-

IOWA
NC sked: Northern Illinois, Iowa State, Northern Iowa
Conference sked: Wisconsin, at Minnesota, at Indiana, Maryland, at Penn State, at Purdue, Northwestern, at Illinois, Nebraska
NC grade: C-; Iowa State is a rival and typically competitive, and NIU is one of the better teams in the MAC. Northern Iowa gets on for the same reason Illinois had Western Illinois, but it's still a demerit.
Conference grade: C+; Not terribly intimidating, though back to back vs Penn State and Purdue won't be much fun.
Overall grade: C

MARYLAND
NC sked: Texas, at Bowling Green, Temple
Conference sked: Minnesota, at Michigan, Rutgers, at Iowa, Illinois, Michigan State, at Indiana, Ohio State, at Penn State
NC grade: B+; THIS is how most P5 teams should schedule -- a big time foe (Texas), a good team from a G5 league (Temple) and a team that's geographically close to the hub of the conference (BG). Nice job, Terps.
Conference grade: B-; Maryland gets OSU and Sparty at home but must travel to Happy Valley and the Big House. All in all, the league did Maryland few favors.
Overall grade: B

MICHIGAN
NC sked: at Notre Dame, Western Michigan, SMU
Conference sked: Nebraska, at Northwestern, Maryland, Wisconsin, at Michigan State, Penn State, at Rutgers, Indiana, at Ohio State
NC grade: B+; It's great to see the Wolverines and Irish play, and there's nothing that terrible about facing WMU and SMU, even though the Mustangs will be down this year.
Conference grade: B+; Any year UM travels to Columbus is a tough one, and going to East Lansing won't be a picnic, either. Michigan does get Penn State and Wisconsin at home, and facing Nebraska and new coach Scott Frost out of the box will be interesting.
Overall grade: B+

MICHIGAN STATE
NC sked: Utah State, at Arizona State, Central Michigan
Conference sked: at Indiana, Northwestern, at Penn State, Michigan, Purdue, at Maryland, Ohio State, at Nebraska, Rutgers
NC grade: C-; If Sparty wants to be taken seriously as a contender it has to do better than this. CMU will be one of the poorer MAC team, Utah State is nothing special and the Fighting Herms of ASU are going to be all kind of chaotic.
Conference grade: C; MSU gets most of its toughies at home -- OSU, Michigan, Northwestern -- but does go to Penn State and Nebraska. 
Overall grade: C

MINNESOTA
NC sked: New Mexico State, Fresno State, Miami (Ohio)
Conference sked: at Maryland, Iowa, at Ohio State, at Nebraska, Indiana, at Illinois, Purdue, Northwestern,
at Wisconsin          
NC grade: B-; Fresno State is an ambitious foe so early in the season, and New Mexico State went to a bowl game in 2017. Miami has talent but never coalesced last year.
Conference grade: C-; No PSU, Michigan or Michigan State, but must travel to Nebraska, OSU and Wisconsin. 
Overall grade: C+

NEBRASKA
NC sked: Akron, Colorado, Troy
Conference sked: at Michigan, Purdue, at Wisconsin, at Northwestern, Minnesota, at Ohio State, Illinois, Michigan State, at Iowa
NC grade: B-; Akron should be a layup, but Colorado will be ready to face its old Big 8 rival, and Troy is sneaky good, just the kind of squad that can upset a team learning a new system. 
Conference grade: B-; The Huskers go to Ann Arbor, Madison and Columbus, which is a tough ask for any team, let alone breaking in a new coaching staff. It will be interesting to see how much Nebraska improves against a meat grinder of a schedule. 
Overall grade: B-

NORTHWESTERN
NC sked: Duke, Akron, Notre Dame
Conference sked: at Purdue, Michigan, at Michigan State, Nebraska, at Rutgers, Wisconsin, at Iowa, at Minnesota, Illinois
NC grade: C+; Duke and Notre Dame are big contests, but having both at home brings this down just a tad.
Conference grade: C; The Wildcats go to East Lansing, but nothing else on the road is exactly intimidating. Michigan, MSU and Nebraska in consecutive weeks is quite the gantlet for NU.
Overall grade: C+

OHIO STATE
NC sked: Oregon State, vs. TCU, Tulane
Conference sked: Rutgers, at Penn State, Indiana, Minnesota, at Purdue, Nebraska, at Michigan State, at Maryland, Michigan
NC grade: C+; The Buckeyes don't often travel, but they do this season, to Jerryworld for a game against a very solid TCU squad. Oregon State and Tulane shouldn't offer much resistance in Columbus.
Conference grade: B-; Road trips to Penn State and Michigan State will determine whether or not the Buckeyes are champions or also-rans, but the finale against rival Michigan is at home. 
Overall grade: C+

PENN STATE
NC sked: Appalachian State, at Pittsburgh, Kent State
Conference sked: at Illinois, Ohio State, Michigan State, at Indiana, Iowa, at Michigan, Wisconsin, at Rutgers, Maryland
NC grade: C-; If not for the trip to Pitt, this would be a D. James Franklin has a team that can contend on a national stage this year, and if the Lions go unbeaten they will get dinged big time for this slate.
Conference grade: C-; PSU faces most of the league's heavy hitters, but gets all except Michigan at home. 
Overall grade: C-

PURDUE
NC sked: Eastern Michigan, Missouri, Boston College
Conference sked: Northwestern, at Nebraska, at Illinois, Ohio State, at Michigan State, Iowa, at Minnesota, Wisconsin, at Indiana
NC grade: C+; This seems about right for an emerging team -- MAC foe and two decent P5 opponents, albeit both in West Lafayette.
Conference grade: C-; Jeff Brohm's bunch gets Ohio State and Wisconsin at home, but travels to East Lansing and Lincoln. The battle of coaching wits with Scott Frost should be something special. 
Overall grade: C

RUTGERS
NC sked: Texas State, at Kansas, Buffalo
Conference sked: at Ohio State, Indiana, Illinois, at Maryland, Northwestern, at Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State, at Michigan State
NC grade: D+; This is about what is to be expected with a program that is attempting to build, so while it's understandable, it's still not good. 
Conference grade: B+; All of the heavy hitters are here, including OSU, Wisconsin and Michigan State away. A formidable league slate will likely keep Rutgers from achieving too much in 2018. 
Overall grade: C+

WISCONSIN
NC sked: Western Kentucky, New Mexico, Brigham Young
Conference sked: at Iowa, Nebraska, at Michigan, Illinois, at Northwestern, Rutgers, at Penn State, at Purdue, Minnesota
NC grade: D+; Like last season, the Badgers are really lacking in non-league power, so should they somehow go unbeaten again they are liking looking at another miss for the CFP. Gotta schedule someone, Bucky. 
Conference grade: C+; No Ohio State or Sparty, but the Badgers do go to Penn State and Michigan.
Overall grade: C

Monday: Pac-12                 
              

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Schedule Grading -- Big 12

We continue our offseason look at Power 5 schedules for 2018, today highlighting the Big 12.

Oklahoma made the College Football Playoff in 2017, thanks in large part to beating Ohio State in Columbus as well as knocking off two other FBS teams. Unfortunately, the Sooners were the exception rather than the norm as most of the league scheduled at least one game with an FCS squad. The Sooners and Texas are the only Big 12 teams that haven't scheduled FCS teams in 2018, so should either one lose more than once the league could be hard pressed to contend for another CFP berth.

As we mentioned in our ACC schedule preview, grades will be lowered for schools that decide to play FCS teams. C'mon, fellas, you're better than that -- it's the one thing you can control, so take the high road, OK?















BAYLOR
NC sked: Abilene Christian, at UTSA, Duke
Conference sked: Kansas, at Oklahoma, Kansas State, at Texas, at West Virginia, Oklahoma State, at Iowa State, TCU, Texas Tech
NC grade: D+; Only the fact that Duke is solid keeps this from being an F. Yes, UTSA is emerging, but is still not considered a powerhouse, and Abilene Christian, despite being the alma mater of Wilbert Montgomery, isn't enough to boost this slate above the ridiculous level. 
Conference grade: B+; Road trips to Norman, Austin, Morgantown and Ames make the league ledger beyond brutal. Most of the winnable games are at home, and even that part has some toughies. 
Overall grade: C+

IOWA STATE
NC sked: South Dakota State, at Iowa, Akron
Conference sked: Oklahoma, at TCU, at Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Texas Tech, at Kansas, Baylor, at Texas, Kansas State
NC grade: C-; The annual showdown with Iowa is usually a nailbiter, but Akron is a MAC lightweight and the South Dakota State is another FCS squad. We'll take the Cyclones seriously when they start scheduling seriously. 
Conference grade: B-; Oklahoma and WVU are at home, while TCU, Okie State and Texas are on the road. ISU might be hard pressed to come out on the right side of .500 of that quintet, but there are five conference home games.
Overall grade: C

KANSAS
NC sked: Nicholls State, at Central Michigan, Rutgers
Conference sked: at Baylor, Oklahoma State, at West Virginia, at Texas Tech, TCU, Iowa State, at Kansas State, at Oklahoma, Texas
NC grade: D-; Nicholls State has turned into a pretty good team, but it's still FCS, so no soup for the Jayhawks. Central Michigan and Rutgers don't move the meter at all.
Conference grade: B; The Jayhawks get Okie State, TCU and Iowa State at home, and they need all the help they can get. Trips to Oklahoma and WVU could be brutal. 
Overall grade: C-

KANSAS STATE
NC sked: South Dakota, Mississippi State, UTSA
Conference sked: at West Virginia, Texas, at Baylor, Oklahoma State, at Oklahoma, at TCU, Kansas, Texas Tech, at Iowa State
NC grade: C; Say this for Bill Snyder, he's at least trying. Getting Mississippi State to come to Manhattan is a plus, but scheduling South Dakota is a minus.  
Conference grade: B+; The league office did Snyder no favors in what could (should?) be his final season, making KSU travel to Oklahoma, WVU and TCU 
Overall grade: B-

OKLAHOMA
NC sked: Florida Atlantic, UCLA, Army
Conference sked: at Iowa State, Baylor, vs. Texas, at TCU, Kansas State, at Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas, at West Virginia
NC grade: B+; Now, THIS is a schedule -- Lane Kiffin,Chip Kelly and an option offense. The only demerit comes from the Sooners not traveling for any of the contests. The mental chess game between Kiffin and Lincoln Riley should be worth the price of admission. 
Conference grade: A-; Nearly every tough game is away -- WVU, TCU, Iowa State -- and the schedule is definitely front loaded, which means Kyler Murray better be good right away.
Overall grade: A-

OKLAHOMA STATE
NC sked: Missouri State,South Alabama, Boise State
Conference sked: Texas Tech, at Kansas, Iowa State, at Kansas State, Texas, at Baylor, at Oklahoma, West Virginia, at TCU
NC grade: C+; Boise State classes up an otherwise garbage slate -- Missouri State? Really? The Bears have nine wins in three years, while South Alabama has failed to post a winning record in any of the last six seasons.
Conference grade: B+; This part is tough, and November could be a problem with Oklahoma, WVU and TCU to close things out -- with only the Mountaineers at home.
Overall grade: B-

TCU
NC sked: Southern University, at SMU, vs. Ohio State
Conference sked: at Texas, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, at Kansas, Kansas State, at West Virginia, at Baylor, Oklahoma State
NC grade: C+; Purely due to the presence of the Buckeyes. Southern should be a cakewalk, and SMU no longer has Chad Morris on the sidelines, which means there should be no problems. 
Conference grade: C+; The Horned Frogs get a split on tough contests, getting Oklahoma and Iowa State at home and Texas and West Virginia away. If TCU can navigate the early part of the league slate it could be in for a big November, with only West Virginia appearing to be a better squad.
Overall grade: C+

TEXAS
NC sked: at Maryland, Tulsa, USC
Conference sked: TCU, at Kansas State, vs Oklahoma, Baylor, at Oklahoma State, West Virginia, at Texas Tech, Iowa State, at Kansas
NC grade: B-; Not quite as good as Oklahoma due to the presence of Tulsa, but USC is a brand, even if it is replacing a quarterback, and Maryland beat the Longhorns last season in Austin.
Conference grade: C-; Texas won't play a true home game that's an automatic loss, though West Virginia and Iowa State will be tough. The road slate is pretty easy, with only Oklahoma State being considered the least bit imposing.
Overall grade: C+

TEXAS TECH
NC sked: Ole Miss, Lamar, Houston
Conference sked: at Oklahoma State, West Virginia, at TCU, Kansas, at Iowa State, Oklahoma, Texas, at Kansas State, at Baylor 
NC grade: C+; If Lamar was replaced by an FBS team this would have been a B, because Houston will be very good this season, and Ole Miss is a challenge right out of the box, even with roster limitations. 
Conference grade: C; Oklahoma, Texas and West Virginia all come to Lubbock, though road trips to Stillwater and Fort Worth in the first three weeks of the league could set the tone for the season. 
Overall grade: C

WEST VIRGINIA
NC sked: Tennessee, Youngstown State, at NC State
Conference sked: Kansas State, at Texas Tech, Kansas, at Iowa State, Baylor, at Texas, TCU, at Oklahoma State, Oklahoma
NC grade: B-; Mountaineers, you were thisclose to flirting with an A, but you had to put Youngstown State on the slate. Tennessee is a good first game, and NC State on the road will be a measuring stick. 
Conference grade: A-; If WVU can get past NC State there is a good chance it is unbeaten heading into November -- but man, what a November. Texas and Okie State away, TCU and Oklahoma at home.
Overall grade: B+

Friday: Big Ten