The College Football Playoff National Championship Game pits No. 2 Georgia (13-1) against No. 4 Alabama (12-1), an all-SEC battle that has the south salivating, but leaves much of the rest of the country uninterested. Similar to the BCS title game of 2012, when LSU battled the Tide in a rematch of a regular season contest won by the Tigers, this one could prove to be the lowest rated championship game in the four years of the event, simply due to "SEC Fatigue" -- which may or may not be a real thing. The SEC was not good this year, but it is possible for a league to have the two best teams yet be mediocre top to bottom -- like the SEC was in 2017.
One of the best storylines among many is the teacher vs. pupil angle. Alabama's Nick Saban has beaten every assistant he's ever faced -- 11-0 -- though it should be noted most of them were short-timers. UGA boss Kirby Smart was in Tuscaloosa for nine seasons, and no doubt picked up a few tricks of the trade here and there. So the moves and counters should be very interesting.
Another thing to watch is Alabama's conditioning -- the Tide have major injury problems, especially on defense, and run the risk of getting worn down by Georgia's dominant ground game.
Whoever wins will make it nine titles in 12 years for the conference, but believe this -- neither squad is playing for the conference. Both are playing for themselves -- Alabama to show that it is still the most dominant FBS program in America, and Georgia to show that it belongs at the party. It would be the first national title for the Bulldogs since 1980.
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| Jalen Hurts (USAToday) |
Like Georgia, Alabama will want to control the clock and run the football. Damien Harris was great in Bama's 24-6 victory over Clemson, rolling up 77 of the 141 rushing yards for the game. He will be the bellcow for Alabama, but the Tide will also lean on battering ram Bo Scarbrough as well as ask quarterback Jalen Hurts to keep plays alive with his legs. There will also be designed quarterback runs, but that could be dicey against a Georgia front seven that is excellent laterally and straight ahead. Compounding matters is the loss of guard Lester Cotton. His absence could make it easier for Georgia All-America linebacker Roquan Smith to find holes and get into the backfield. Georgia's secondary isn't great, but neither is Alabama's passing game. Hurts has been far too inconsistent with his arm, which means Georgia will likely load up to stop Alabama's running game and make Hurts beat them through the air. Even with the wondrous talent of Calvin Ridley to throw to, it could be difficult for Hurts to impact the game with his arm. Smith is the unquestioned leader of the Dawgs D, but it's a team effort as 19 players have at least 20 tackles this season.
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| Sony Michel (RedandBlack.com) |
Bulldogs freshman quarterback Jake Fromm showed that the big stage of the Rose Bowl was not too big for him, so Smart is not worried about whether or not he can lead Georgia in its biggest game of the season -- hell, biggest game of the last 35 years. Fromm was calm, completing 20 of 29 passes for 210 yards and two scores, and most importantly did not turn the football over. Alabama was top 10 nationally in takeaways, so keeping the football is paramount for Georgia. Alabama is tops in America against the run, allowing just 2.7 yards per carry and only eight touchdowns. But the Tide has not been tested the way it will be by Nick Chubb (145 yards, 2 TDs vs Oklahoma) and Sony Michel (181 yards, 3 TDs), and with a beat up linebacker unit Georgia could wreak some havoc if either back can get to the second level. Alabama is also the best in the country against the pass, allowing just seven touchdowns. There won't be a ton of blitzing from the Tide front four, which is led by Da'Ron Payne and Raekwon Davis. All-America Minkah Fitzpatrick leads a hard-hitting, ball-hawking (17 INTs) secondary, which could make life tough for Javon Wims and crew.
WHAT WINS THE GAME
Field position and defense. The Bulldogs were one of the best teams in the nation in field position advantage, and blocked an Oklahoma field goal in the Rose Bowl. Georgia is aggressive and will load the box against Alabama, so it will be up to Harris and the offensive line to stay ahead of the chains. Alabama is just 45th nationally in third down conversions while Georgia is ninth. Both teams allow just over 33 percent conversions to opponents, so getting off the field defensively will be key. Georgia appears more equipped to put together long drives, but also has been easier to drive the football against. With both teams sporting stout stop units, a gimmick or two could win the game. Payne caught a touchdown pass against Clemson, and Georgia allowed a touchdown to Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield.
INSIDE THE NUMBERS, National Rank
Rush Offense -- Georgia 8, Alabama 10
Pass Efficiency Offense -- Georgia 7, Alabama 8
Total Offense -- Alabama 27, Georgia 31
Scoring Offense -- Alabama 12, Georgia 17
Rush Defense -- Alabama 1, Georgia 20
Pass Efficiency Defense -- Alabama 1, Georgia 13
Total Defense -- Alabama 1, Georgia 6
Scoring Defense -- Alabama 1, Georgia 5
Sacks Per Game -- Alabama 22, Georgia 54
Sacks Allowed Per Game -- Georgia 19, Alabama 51
3rd Down Conversions -- Georgia 9, Alabama 35
3rd Down Conversions Allowed -- Georgia 25, Alabama 26
Turnover Margin -- Alabama 5, Georgia 34
Offensive Efficiency (S&P+) -- Georgia 11, Alabama 22
Defensive Efficiency (S&P+) -- Alabama 1, Georgia 11
Special Teams Efficiency (FEI) -- Alabama 15, Georgia 45
PICK
Alabama has been here before and will not feel any nerves, while Georgia, despite winning big games all season, could be just a tad jittery early. Smart has pushed all of the right buttons this season, but Saban knows a little bit about button pushing himself. Saban will also continue to tell his team that no one thought it should even be in the playoff, and the players should feed off of that the way they did against Clemson. Alabama is laying just over a field goal (3.5), and will get the cover.
ALABAMA 23, GEORGIA 17
2017 BOWL RECORD
SU 17-20; ATS 18-17-1
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